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doi:10.1016/j.quaint.2007.06.001
Copyright © 2007 Elsevier Ltd and INQUA All rights reserved.
Extreme Nile floods and famines in Medieval Egypt (AD 930–1500) and their climatic implications
References and further reading may be available for this article. To view references and further reading you must purchase this article.
Fekri A. Hassana,
aInstitute of Archaeology, University College London, 31-34 Gordon Square, WC1H 0PY, London, UK
Available online 7 June 2007.
Abstract
Nile gauge records of variations in Nile floods from the 9th century to the 15th century AD reveal pronounced episodes of low Nile and high Nile flood discharge. Historical data reveal that this period was also characterized by the worst known famines on record. Exploratory comparisons of variations in Nile flood discharge with high-resolution data on sea surface temperature of the North Atlantic climate from three case studies suggest that rainfall at the source of the Nile was influenced by the North Atlantic Oscillation. However, there are apparently flip-flop reversals from periods when variations in Nile flood discharge are positively related to North Atlantic warming to periods where the opposite takes place. The key transitions occur atAD 900, 1010, 1070, 1180, 1350 and 1400. The putative flip-flop junctures, which require further confirmation, appear to be quite rapid and some seem to have had dramatic effects on Nile flood discharge, especially if they recurred at short intervals, characteristic of the period from the 9th to the 14th century, coincident with the so-called Medieval Warm Period. The transition from one state to the other was characterized by incidents of low, high or a succession of both low and high extreme floods. The cluster of extreme floods was detrimental causing famines and economic disasters that are unmatched over the last 2000 years.
Originally posted by AndyMayhew
That has nothing whatsoever to do with the 'funny' story I posted! Though I agree that the level of proof checking that occurred in the IPCC report is unforgiveable
Originally posted by AndyMayhew
But tell me, what is your stance? That no human activity has any effect on climate whatsoever? That whatever we do is fine because your god said so? Or just that CO2 levels have no effect on global temperature whatsoever and that the so-called 'Greenhouse Effect'* is incorrect (despite it withstanding scientific scrutiny for 150 years)?
Originally posted by AndyMayhew
You seem good at muddying the waters and confusing people by throwing in straw men, non sequiturs and running off at a complete tangent.
Originally posted by AndyMayhew
But what do you actually believe?
Originally posted by AndyMayhew
* I assume you know that the 'Greenhouse Effect' has nothing to do with why greenhouses are warmedit on 25-6-2012 by AndyMayhew because: (no reason given)
JSC Human Space Flight Vets Complain About NASA's Climate Change Position
By Keith Cowing on April 11, 2012 1:42 PM
"49 former NASA scientists and astronauts sent a letter to NASA Administrator Charles Bolden last week admonishing the agency for it's role in advocating a high degree of certainty that man-made CO2 is a major cause of climate change while neglecting empirical evidence that calls the theory into question. The group, which includes seven Apollo astronauts and two former directors of NASA's Johnson Space Center in Houston, are dismayed over the failure of NASA, and specifically the Goddard Institute For Space Studies (GISS), to make an objective assessment of all available scientific data on climate change."
...
CO2 produced from burning fossil fuels or burning forests has a different isotopic composition from CO2 in the atmosphere, because plants have a preference for the lighter isotopes (carbon-12 and 13); thus they have lower carbon-13 to 12 ratios. Since fossil fuels are ultimately derived from ancient plants, plants and fossil fuels all have roughly the same carbon-13 to 12 ratio – about 2% lower than that of the atmosphere. As CO2 from these materials is released into, and mixes with, the atmosphere, the average carbon-13 to 12 ratio of the atmosphere decreases. Reconstructions of atmospheric carbon isotope ratios from various proxy sources have determined that at no time in the last 10,000 years are the carbon-13 to 12 ratios in the atmosphere as low as they are today. Furthermore, the carbon-13 to 12 ratios begin to decline dramatically just as the CO2 starts to increase — around 1850 AD. This is exactly what we expect if the increased CO2 is in fact due to fossil fuel burning beginning in the Industrial Revolution.
Originally posted by ElectricUniverse
Originally posted by AndyMayhew
That has nothing whatsoever to do with the 'funny' story I posted! Though I agree that the level of proof checking that occurred in the IPCC report is unforgiveable
I actually responded to every point you made in your post with my first response to your inquiries... I have to wonder exactly what you are talking about.
BTW, about the claim of that story that "the snow is melting slower because of a lack of cars passing through that area" don't you think that if a lack of cars passing through that area are "the reason for the snow smelting slower" then all major cities should have been the areas with the largest warming in 50 years? The fact is that it isn't true, the areas with the largest temperature increases are remote/far away from sources of city pollution.
All the evidence that I have read on the subject demonstrates that yes CO2 is a GHG, but it's contribution to temperatures is so minuscule that at the levels it exists, and has existed on Earth it has no real consequence on global temperatures.
As for your claim that the "greenhouse effect has withstood scientific scrutiny for 150 years", you are in fact wrong. Much has changed since the times of Arrhenius.
We have more facts now than ever before about the Earth's geological record. There have been times in Earth's history when atmospheric CO2 levels were HIGHER than now yet temperatures were a lot lower than now. There have also been times when atmospheric CO2 has been a LOT LOWER than now yet temperatures have been MUCH HIGHER.
It is also a FACT that CO2 changes in level always lag temperature changes.
All you have done is give your OPINION without showing any evidence to back your claims
I don't "believe", I know by what the evidence and facts say what I already mentioned above.
This is the difference between me and AGW believers like you. You base your opinions on BELIEF and not on evidence and facts.
First of all a greenhouse is a truly closed system which doesn't allow even wind inside the greenhouse. The Earth is not a closed system, which is another fact that goes against the AGW BELIEF.
Originally posted by r2d246
climate change and polution are like 2 different things. Im in Canada and if there really is climate change then we need tons more. TONS! Because it's so freakin cold up here it's rediculous. Climate change my butt
Obviously you havent read this page. Man made Global warming is real just like your ignorance.
Emissions of CO2 (Figure 1a) from fossil fuel combustion, with contributions from cement manufacture, are responsible for more than 75% of the increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration since pre-industrial times. The remainder of the increase comes from land use changes dominated by deforestation (and associated biomass burning) with contributions from changing agricultural practices. All these increases are caused by human activity. The natural carbon cycle cannot explain the observed atmospheric increase of 3.2 to 4.1 GtC yr–1 in the form of CO2 over the last 25 years. (One GtC equals 1015 grams of carbon, i.e., one billion tonnes.)
Originally posted by SpittinTruth
Really, and sadly enough....most (if not all) of you are the ones POLLUTING it; especially when you DRIVE to work. The reason why the earth is dirty, is because of supply and demand. People are demanding more....and shortcuts are being taken to fill that demand. Don't blame BIG business.....blame yourselves.
When's the last time you planted a tree? When's the last time you went to the park or beach and picked up garbage? Need i continue?
Go to a mirror and point. That's who's to blame! It's not politicians, TPTB, or the Vatican! It's the CONSUMER! Y.O.U.!!!
than 75% of the increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration since pre-industrial times.
Originally posted by minor007
Obviously you havent read this page. Man made Global warming is real just like your ignorance.
Originally posted by minor007
CO2 produced from burning fossil fuels or burning forests has a different isotopic composition from CO2 in the atmosphere, because plants have a preference for the lighter isotopes (carbon-12 and 13); thus they have lower carbon-13 to 12 ratios. Since fossil fuels are ultimately derived from ancient plants, plants and fossil fuels all have roughly the same carbon-13 to 12 ratio – about 2% lower than that of the atmosphere. As CO2 from these materials is released into, and mixes with, the atmosphere, the average carbon-13 to 12 ratio of the atmosphere decreases. Reconstructions of atmospheric carbon isotope ratios from various proxy sources have determined that at no time in the last 10,000 years are the carbon-13 to 12 ratios in the atmosphere as low as they are today. Furthermore, the carbon-13 to 12 ratios begin to decline dramatically just as the CO2 starts to increase — around 1850 AD. This is exactly what we expect if the increased CO2 is in fact due to fossil fuel burning beginning in the Industrial Revolution.
Originally posted by minor007
showing your ignorance again are we?
Are the Increases in Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide and Other Greenhouse Gases During the Industrial Era Caused by Human Activities?
An Open Letter to the Community from Chris Landsea.
Dear Colleagues,
After some prolonged deliberation, I have decided to withdraw from participating in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). I am withdrawing because I have come to view the part of the IPCC to which my expertise is relevant as having become politicized. In addition, when I have raised my concerns to the IPCC leadership, their response was simply to dismiss my concerns.
With this open letter to the community, I wish to explain the basis for my decision and bring awareness to what I view as a problem in the IPCC process. The IPCC is a group of climate researchers from around the world that every few years summarize how climate is changing and how it may be altered in the future due to manmade global warming. I had served both as an author for the Observations chapter and a Reviewer for the 2nd Assessment Report in 1995 and the 3rd Assessment Report in 2001, primarily on the topic of tropical cyclones (hurricanes and typhoons). My work on hurricanes, and tropical cyclones more generally, has been widely cited by the IPCC. For the upcoming AR4, I was asked several weeks ago by the Observations chapter Lead Author Dr. Kevin Trenberth to provide the writeup for Atlantic hurricanes. As I had in the past, I agreed to assist the IPCC in what I thought was to be an important and politically neutral determination of what is happening with our climate.
.............
The scientist behind the bogus claim in a Nobel Prize-winning UN report that Himalayan glaciers will have melted by 2035 last night admitted it was included purely to put political pressure on world leaders.
Dr Murari Lal also said he was well aware the statement, in the 2007 report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), did not rest on peer-reviewed scientific research.
In an interview with The Mail on Sunday, Dr Lal, the co-ordinating lead author of the report’s chapter on Asia, said: ‘It related to several countries in this region and their water sources. We thought that if we can highlight it, it will impact policy-makers and politicians and encourage them to take some concrete action.
‘It had importance for the region, so we thought we should put it in.’
Dr Lal’s admission will only add to the mounting furore over the melting glaciers assertion, which the IPCC was last week forced to withdraw because it has no scientific foundation.
According to the IPCC’s statement of principles, its role is ‘to assess on a comprehensive, objective, open and transparent basis, scientific, technical and socio-economic information – IPCC reports should be neutral with respect to policy’.
The claim that Himalayan glaciers are set to disappear by 2035 rests on two 1999 magazine interviews with glaciologist Syed Hasnain, which were then recycled without any further investigation in a 2005 report by the environmental campaign group WWF.
It was this report that Dr Lal and his team cited as their source.
The WWF article also contained a basic error in its arithmetic. A claim that one glacier was retreating at the alarming rate of 134 metres a year should in fact have said 23 metres – the authors had divided the total loss measured over 121 years by 21, not 121.
Last Friday, the WWF website posted a humiliating statement recognising the claim as ‘unsound’, and saying it ‘regrets any confusion caused’.
Dr Lal said: ‘We knew the WWF report with the 2035 date was “grey literature” [material not published in a peer-reviewed journal]. But it was never picked up by any of the authors in our working group, nor by any of the more than 500 external reviewers, by the governments to which it was sent, or by the final IPCC review editors.’
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