Quakes that have hit Fukushima since 10 am (utc) today

reply to post by Flavian
This is why it would be so bad. Is Robert Alvarez just fearmongering? Or Mitsuhei Murata? If Fukushima's problems aren't handled fast, it's an ELE waiting to go off. Hubert J. Farnsworth couldn't come up with a better doomsday device.

Originally posted by Flavian
reply to post by LittleBlackEagle

 

Disagree entirely to be honest.

Yes there would be health implications, particularly within Japan itself. How would that affect, for example, Europe? Look at Chernobyl these days. Yes it is still highly radioactive but nature has returned and that wasn't really that long ago was it?

However, you clearly know more about this than me so could you explain more clearly why Fukushima has the potential to be an ELE? Saying there is a lot of MOX isn't any use unless you happen to be a nuclear physicist or technician...... I mean where do you get that statement from that it has the potential to kill billions? I really find that hard to believe but i may be being naieve.

edit on 13-4-2012 by Flavian because: (no reason given)

here's a good read on Chernobyl, www.greenpeace.org...

now that was a one time event..... within days they had dumped lead, clay, sand and concrete on the reactor and cooled it with liquid nitrogen. here are some statistics and a timeline of the events.

en.wikipedia.org...

Fuku has been releasing radioactive isotopes for well over a year now with no end in site. again remember a very key word here, Cumulative, that's where Fuku's greatest tragedy potential lies currently. when you absorb these isotopes they don't just go away, your body stores them and they add up for your entire life. when it gets into the food chain, which it has long since begun to, it is passed from organism to organism from the tiniest right up to us at the top. again passing on it's accumulation for 10s to 1000s of years.

Fuku may never be again, and i hope not, an epic intensified release of radioactive waste, but it has been and remains to be a slow kill mechanism that will be around for generations to come.

Originally posted by Flavian
reply to post by LittleBlackEagle

 

Disagree entirely to be honest.

Yes there would be health implications, particularly within Japan itself. How would that affect, for example, Europe? Look at Chernobyl these days. Yes it is still highly radioactive but nature has returned and that wasn't really that long ago was it?

However, you clearly know more about this than me so could you explain more clearly why Fukushima has the potential to be an ELE? Saying there is a lot of MOX isn't any use unless you happen to be a nuclear physicist or technician...... I mean where do you get that statement from that it has the potential to kill billions? I really find that hard to believe but i may be being naieve.

edit on 13-4-2012 by Flavian because: (no reason given)

We are in very fuzzy situation on this ground. Lowest estimate for Chernobyl disaster is 50 deaths (it is not enough even for mechanically induced deaths - there were 500.000 people participating on cleanup operation), highest estimate is 1.000.000 people death. After one year of (not so concentrated) research I'm inclined to higher estimate. In some place in Ukraina and Belarus 1 in 3 babies are born malformed till today. While adults can handle relatively high dose of radionuclides, even miniscule doses are extremely dangerous for fetus and children. That is because during rapid development there is highest possibility of mutation or malfunction.

Basic problem is this: Nuclear industry is huge, many too big to fail have theirs interests in it, there is endless history of lies and spin pushed by corporate and government officials. And the last but not least: It is part of weapon industry. There is reason why there is so many outdated models of reactors working: production of plutonium for military purposes. TPTB have no way how to say: Sorry, it was not only mistake, but deliberate and successful attempt to do this world more dangerous and volatile place. One year after Chernobyl, USSR officials wanted to present results of Chernobyl disaster to IAEA at Vienna meeting. It was banned by IAEA because of outrage which would hit Western world if this presentation was made public - not outrage against USSR but against global nuclear industry.

There is not so big trouble with lighter fission products - isotopes of Cesium and Iodine. If you read MSM reports, they usually do not mention other excessively more dangerous products: isotopes of Uranium and transuranic radionuclides. They are real and long lasting danger for most of live - especially higher life forms.
I'll stop here. Do your homework as folks at Fukushima monster thread did.

Back to ELE. There is possibility that collapse of SFP at RB#4 will trigger fission chain reaction. There is about 460 tun of fuel in this pool alone. Only small part of fuel will take part in nuclear reaction but great portion of fuel will be pulverized or evaporated to unprecedented cloud of poison. In fact nobody knows, there is no way how to calculate impacts. There are no (at least publicly accessible) models of such event. If this happens, large part of Japan will be uninhabitable for thousands, maybe hundreds of thousand years. If winds will be blowing west (they are blowing that direction constantly - see jets stream over Japan), spots - especially but not exclusevely - at Northern America and rest of northern hemisphere will be uninhabitable also.
Nuclear detonation of SFP may trigger similar detonations at other places of plant - namely CSFP. It is located 50 - 60 meters from SFP of RB#4. There is 5x (not sure here, it is probably more) more fuel than at mentioned SFP. If this dirty bomb went off, large parts of northern hemisphere will be uninhabitable. Jet stream will carry this ... I have no words here ... back to Japan in some 14 days and again around world till all poison settle on the ground/water and enter in to food chain or via dust in our lungs. Take look on path of jet stream around world and take into account that it is blowing over most fertile areas.

Now, we are in situation of rapid eco-diversity decline - not only wildlife, but also gene pools of cultural crops and animals are rapidly shrinking. Add to this situation possible consequences of Fukushima and you have perfect ELE.

This is not fearmongering, it is real danger - at least in my eyes.


End note:
But I totally agree with 00nunya00 later post. Small earthquakes are of little concern. In this respect is my post entirely off topic.

reply to post by Flavian

Yes there would be health implications, particularly within Japan itself. How would that affect, for example, Europe?

Perhaps in this way:

The significant input of 134Cs and 137Cs into the Mediterranean seawater column (30 m depth) was detected later, on the 24th of May. Radioisotopes of caesium and iodine were found far above the applied detection limits, but still with no concern for harmful radiation exposure and public health. The contamination gradually decreased in air and activity concentrations returned to background values after one or two months.

Detection of FukushimaDaiichi nuclear power plant accident radioactive traces in Monaco

Though they do indicate that there is "no concern for harmful radiation exposure and public health." Like a mantra that phrase has been used.

And

The release of radioactivity into the atmosphere from the damaged Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant started on March 12th, 2011. Among the various radionuclides released, iodine -131 (131I) and cesium isotopes (137Cs and 134Cs) were transported across the Pacific Ocean and reached the United States on 17–18 March 2011. Consequently, an elevated level of fission products 131I, 132I, 132Te, 134Cs and 137Cs were detected in air, water, and milk samples collected across the United States between March 17 and April 4, 2011.

Radioactive fallout in the United States due to the Fukushima nuclear plant accident

Granted, I131 has a short half life (around 8 days), it is the other isotopes which are of concern, Cs being but one of them.

I do believe that we have seen the maximum peak release of airborne radiation back after the explosion of R3, it is the continual release of waterborne contamination which remains more difficult to quantify.

They are making an effort to contain the used water:



Enformable

Thing is, they are going to run out of room to put these tanks at some point because of the technique (corium quenching) requires an inordinately large amount of water to be continuously flowed over the top of the molten masses. Depending on the amount of fuel in each blob of nuclear lava, these masses may require 10's to 100's more years of cooling in order to get them to a temperature at which they could be handled.

Even so, they do not have the technology to do anything with the molten mass:

The technology to repair the damaged area under such environments has not been established.

"Development of Containment Vessels Repair Method" 371KB .pdf

Look at Chernobyl these days.

Interestingly enough, my most recent post to the megathread covers some of these issues, an excerpt:

Further, because most radiation-related solid cancers continue to occur decades after exposure and because only 20 years have passed since the accident, it is too early to evaluate the full radiological impact of the accident.

Cancer consequences of the Chernobyl accident: 20 years on

Now, personally I don't think that this is an ELE, but it is an ongoing danger to the entire planet; primarily to Japan, but there will be effects seen in other parts of the globe due to the long-lived nature of many of the most dangerous products of nuclear fission.



ETA:

nunya's correct about not being worried about 4's and 5's, a 6 directly under the plant, especially if it were shallow enough would be concerning. Also remember that there not not yet been an aftershock of M8+, which is entirely within the realm of possibility.

If you think a few little 5's are going to do anything to Fuku, I invite you to read all 1200+ pages of THE thread. Those of us who have been paying attention since *the beginning* are laughing at you right now. A few 4's and 5's will do nothing, have done nothing, and will continue to do nothing. Plain and simple. Seriously, research much? You don't need to manufacture a crisis for this one; just sit back and let it go to hell itself. It will, no need of help from the fearmongers.

Originally posted by 00nunya00
If you think a few little 5's are going to do anything to Fuku, I invite you to read all 1200+ pages of THE thread. Those of us who have been paying attention since *the beginning* are laughing at you right now. A few 4's and 5's will do nothing, have done nothing, and will continue to do nothing. Plain and simple. Seriously, research much? You don't need to manufacture a crisis for this one; just sit back and let it go to hell itself. It will, no need of help from the fearmongers.

LOL. OK you got me. Active fuel rods on the second floor of an already damaged building are completely invulnerable to an earthquake that can cause damage to buildings in a bad state of repair.

You don't think that a succession of shallow-focus earthquakes has any bearing on damaged infrastructure.

HMMM. Oh wait. Coolant systems. Didn't something just happen concerning them.

My entire point is that any time any earthquakes affect this area makes this complex more vulnerable to cascade events i.e. the type that caused the initial disaster.

All systems are compromised. A situation that is an common occurrence in a working reactor could cause untold damage here. An automatic shut-down due to loss of power of any system could mean that system cant be restarted.

Have you inspected the structure for defects. LOL a lump falling of that building would be like throwing a dice. Will it be a six and crack this pipe or damage that system.

NO ONE KNOWS WHAT CAN OR WILL HAPPEN.

To pretend otherwise is ridiculous.

01:56 JST 14 Apr 2012 01:52 JST 14 Apr 2012 Fukushima-ken Oki M4.3 2
01:01 JST 14 Apr 2012 00:57 JST 14 Apr 2012 Fukushima-ken Oki M4.1 1
00:30 JST 14 Apr 2012 00:26 JST 14 Apr 2012 Fukushima-ken Oki M4.4 2
23:58 JST 13 Apr 2012 23:53 JST 13 Apr 2012 Fukushima-ken Oki M4.2 2
21:56 JST 13 Apr 2012 21:52 JST 13 Apr 2012 Fukushima-ken Oki M3.6 1
21:20 JST 13 Apr 2012 21:15 JST 13 Apr 2012 Fukushima-ken Oki M3.4 1
21:16 JST 13 Apr 2012 21:12 JST 13 Apr 2012 Fukushima-ken Oki M5.2 3
20:09 JST 13 Apr 2012 20:04 JST 13 Apr 2012 Fukushima-ken Oki M4.0 1
19:38 JST 13 Apr 2012 19:33 JST 13 Apr 2012 Fukushima-ken Oki M4.1 2
19:21 JST 13 Apr 2012 19:16 JST 13 Apr 2012 Fukushima-ken Oki M4.5 2
19:21 JST 13 Apr 2012 19:10 JST 13 Apr 2012 Fukushima-ken Oki M5.9 4
19:14 JST 13 Apr 2012 19:10 JST 13 Apr 2012 Fukushima-ken Oki M5.9 4
23:55 JST 12 Apr 2012 23:51 JST 12 Apr 2012 Fukushima-ken Oki M5.9 4

Cant help but notice at least two 5.9 s there. Not so little fives.

Another point is that this could be described as an earthquake swarm as no earthquake has been powerful enough to trigger aftershocks. Swarms generally indicate some other pattern of behaviour i.e. close to surface magma movement.
Or in some cases (counter intuitively) a precursor to a major event.

Originally posted by LittleBlackEagle
they are just kicking the can down the road hoping for a miracle.

Yes, very much so. And eventually it will hit the shores of the U.S.
and the earthquakes on the West Coast present a problem for the
hordes of spent fuel rods stored in facilities, negligent.

Just google Humbolt bay dry cask storage - nuclear.

the U.S. has nearly 72,000 tons of spent nuclear fuel—enough to fill a football field more than 15 feet deep—and continues to produce about 2,200 tons annually, stored “temporarily” at 75 sites around the country. This amount is expected to more than double to over 168,000 tons by about 2055. About three quarters of this fuel is still in its original pools at reactor sites, many of which are nearing or have exceeded capacity. To help alleviate this problem, regulations have been changed to allow for re-racking the rods in the pools, placing them closer together than orginially intended. While this does increase storage capacity, it cuts back the safety margin and could increase the likelihood of overheating in a catastrophic event.

yournec.org...

reply to post by LittleBlackEagle


You know what an ELE is right?

Fukushima has many awful implications for Japan and the surrounding areas. The waste water they are pumping into the sea is not going to make the whole worlds oceans radioactive, the isotopes that are dispersing into the air are not going to make the lands in the whole of the world radioactive killing off all crops and wildlife, and all 7 billion people on earth.

It's a horrible situation, an atrocity, but life always finds a way.

Let's be realistic.

reply to post by murch


I've followed all of the developments you're talking about, and more, for 13 months now. The fact is, they have had MANY MANY of these "smaller" EQs the entire time, across the country, and bigger. You need to take into account a little EQ information, especially how the scale magnifies as it gets bigger, and what kind of shaking the quakes actually produce. You need not worry over 5's any more than you were already worrying, which *should* be quite a bit. But 5's are not the alarm bell where you start calling your family and telling them to stock up. This is not a new development.

ETA: show me an 8 or another 9 under Fuku, and I'll start prepping. Strong 7 and I'll be monitoring closely.


EagainTA: Don't get me wrong----I'm someone who started serious gardening because of the fallout threat from Fuku last year. I'm in my second year of avoiding this [snip]. But I know when to panic now, and now is not the time. Yet.

Right. Sorry, wasn't avoiding coming back, just been off site for a few days.

Thought Provoker
Thanks for the extra information. I have to admit, that was rather a scary read. I would also say though that it is the (in terms of scenarios) the worst case report i have seen linked to Fukushima. Other reports have stated a far lower potential impact than the report you linked to. To me, this says the truth is probably closer to somewhere between the two......

Little Black Eagle
More interesting information, thank you. I would say again though, there is no evidence for a potential ELE. That is not to say the pollution and related health risks would not be very serious - obviously they would.

JanAmosComenius
Brilliant extra information but just further confirms no ELE.

jadedANDcynical
Very in depth extra information, thanks very much. Sorry if i gave you the impression that i was downplaying Chernobly - i didn't mean to. I was using Chernobyl to illustrate the point that however bad it is at Fukushima, it will not be an ELE.