Head's Up Central US: Severe Weather and Tornado Threat

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reply to post by Drew99GT


We have internet/radar on our phones and I have a few things saved on my kindle fire. We keep up with radio stations for current weather alerts. And we have various websites we use to help guide us. No way we would go out in that mess blind! We've been through training and I've done some online training and my own personal research. This is our third year doing this so we are still learning.

We were looking at towns between Salina and Wichita. But if you think west of Wichita I might start looking at Hutchinson area. Are you going to be going out there tomorrow? Drop me a PM!

the storm chasers are saying oklahoma is getting hit now. norman to be specific.

edit to add they are getting hail too.

Originally posted by tport17
reply to post by Drew99GT

 

We have internet/radar on our phones and I have a few things saved on my kindle fire. We keep up with radio stations for current weather alerts. And we have various websites we use to help guide us. No way we would go out in that mess blind! We've been through training and I've done some online training and my own personal research. This is our third year doing this so we are still learning.

We were looking at towns between Salina and Wichita. But if you think west of Wichita I might start looking at Hutchinson area. Are you going to be going out there tomorrow? Drop me a PM!

edit on 13-4-2012 by tport17 because: (no reason given)

edit on 13-4-2012 by tport17 because: (no reason given)

Initiation will be along the dryline, where ever that ends up being. The NAm forecast model was showing a smaller surface low forming south of the main one, somewhere near the OK/KS border tomorrow, west of Wichita. In fact, the NAM is forecasting the system to slow down quite a bit

Here's my forecast from a different website:

NWS ICT's wording in their afternoon AFD is good or bad depending on whether you're a chaser or a property owner in the area! They're having serious doubts now about the forecast. I think the biggest issue now is the fact that the 500 mb flow will be a bit further north and west of the main dryline area and surface features, and that is where disturbances in the flow are likely to kick off convection. There's still likely going to be at least isolated supercells in the southern high risk area, but in terms of "outbreak", as in many discrete tornadic supercells - I think that is becoming a bit less likely. I think that is a result of the positive tilt if the longwave trough; it's ejecting out quickly now instead of having time to dig in, deepen a surface low closer to the upper trough axis, and create the balance of upper air features directly above surface features/dryline area. If I was chasing, I'd probably start at least considering the northern target area. Man, this is a tough forecast because if at least one or two isolated supercells do get going before the cold front overtakes everything later tomorrow night, they'll be monsters. :edit: and just as I thought, the NAM is slowing things down and the dryline is further west than previously progged. That might be a good thing as the jet streak is a bit closer to the instability axis over the southern dryline. Surface low at 00z is near North Platte! That's where I'd target. In fact, now that things are back that far west, I might mosey on up that way tomorrow!!! North Platte to Grand Island along the warm front directly east of the surface low/triple point and points to the immediate southeast will be the sweet spot IMO. In fact, I bet everything ends up even further west than it looks now.

I can't post the link because you have to be a member of Stormtrack. Be prepared for storms to possibly more isolated in nature and possibly further north and west of where you think. There's 2 target areas really; northeast of the surface low which will be in central Nebraska, and along the dryline through central Kansas into north central OK. The problem tomorrow is the jet stream will be a bit further northwest of where the surface features are and the air aloft won't be quite as cold as needed for intense tornadic supercells capable of violent tornadoes.

Like I said, the strongest part of the jet stream where small disturbances can create extra lift and initiate storms will be running to the northwest of Wichita, but the best surface features for the dryline area will be southwest of Wichita! Which one of those areas pops remains to be seen.

I was storm chasing Thursday and worked all night, and I'm still up! Been awake now for 30 some odd hours with no sleep, so I doubt i can muster the energy to get up tomorrow morning.

I could make a kind of nowcast thread for people interested where storms should fire tomorrow. The forecast is VERY contingent on where key features like the main surface low, the dryline, and the warm front end up tomorrow, as well as the jet streak aloft.

Thanks for the heads up, I live in Illinois and from what I am seeing my area is predicted to have potential severe weather on Sunday so I'll let family know and keep an eye out.

Per the RUC forecast model, the dryline has retreated substantially more west overnight and therefor the attendant threat for severe thunderstorms has moved west as well. initiation will likely take place around the northeast CO, northwest KS, southwest NE area for the northern target where low level wind shear is maximized at the triple point location where the dryline intersects the warm front. The second are of storm initiation later on in the late afternoon will be further south on the dryline near Woodward OK and points to the immediate north and south, much further west than anticipated yesterday. Those storms will then move northeast towards the Wichita/I35 corridor. Low level winds are not nearly as backed in the southern extent of the dryline so the biggest threat for strong long track and potentially violent tornadoes will be in north central/northwest Kansas into south central/southwest Nebraska along the warm front, and possibly even into northeast Colorado. This is shaping up to be a CLASSIC triple point severe weather event. Holdrege Nebraska IMO is where you want to be to see a tornado, and possibly points to the immediate west.

It's still a possibility that the I-35 corridor gets hit with tornadic storms, but they will be more isolated in nature until the cold front produces a large squall line later this evening.

Something tells me we're in for a fun week folks...honestly I'd get used to it.....its gonna do this for the betta part of 5 years if we aint careful.

At least that's what I hear....

m.yahoo.com...

Please take these storm warnings seriously if you're in the area. Sounds/looks like its gonna be pretty bad.

I stepped out on my front porch to have a cigarette and the wind about blew my head off in Tulsa. The storms aren't even here yet and it is super windy. Gear up for some wild weather tonight guys!

Forecasters say Saturday storms,,,,,

'life threatening',,,

By SEAN MURPHY | AP - 11 hrs ago

wow,,reality such a new concept,,

"It was only the second time in U.S. history that the Storm Prediction Center issued a high-risk warning more than 24 hours in advance, said Russ Schneider, director of the center,"


"the second time in U.S. history that the Storm Prediction Center issued a high-risk warning"

Russ Schneider, director of the center,,,reality such a new concept,,u must have a big set of

Hats off too "Russ Schneider",,,
wow first time in two years,,

reply to post by FissionSurplus

Saturday, April 14


I live near to Kansas City and I checked the weather yesterday because I saw somewhere that there was to be potential for storms. Being tornado season and living in tornado alley, I wanted to be prepared. I'm highly suspicious about this storm though. NEVER BEFORE have we received so much "notice" for a large strong storm, but here they are already flashing warnings on local television for a storm that shouldn't arrive here until after 8pm. The most disturbing thing though is when I checked the local news website for the weather I read this:

"I am very much concerned about central Nebraska through central Kansas and into some of Oklahoma," he said. "We will see some powerful super cells develop late afternoon into early evening." The federal government says, "a tornado outbreak likely across the southern and central Plains northwesterly into the Mid-Missouri Valley from Saturday afternoon through Saturday night."

Source
wait... the FEDERAL GOVERNMENT SAYS..... that got me confused. since when did we start getting the weather reports from the federal government? I looked around to see if i could find a source from which the "federal government said" but this is the only article pertaining to weather where i could find the words "the federal government says". I'm not saying this is HAARP, but I find it strange nonetheless


makes me worry that it's going to be bad....


ETA: this is the 2ND time is US history that severe weather warnings were give in 24-48 hours in advance. the 1ST time , more than 100 tornadoes touched down with more than a dozen deaths.

reply to post by couldbeanyone


I find it odd as well that we are getting so much warning. We rarely ever get a 2-3 day warning on the severity of a storm. I don't know if they are scaring us just so we will take cover and maybe the storm isn't as bad as they say OR if they are telling the truth and they know that we are gonna get pummeled.

I just looked at the TORCON for my area: 9/10... this means there is a "90 percent chance that Severe thunderstorms, damaging hail, high winds and or a tornado may break out" I live in Northeast/Central Kansas. I hope this doesn't happen as much as they hyped, but if it does, It's gonna be one hell of a fun night...

reply to post by lindsay1984

I stepped out on my front porch to have a cigarette and the wind about blew my head off in Tulsa. The storms aren't even here yet and it is super windy. Gear up for some wild weather tonight guys

The same thing started here this morning to. (North TX). I checked my local weather stuff, and there's a *severe wind advisory* that started at 9am today and lasts till about 7pm. Then that's when the storms are supposed to hit our area. Once we start getting this wind (gusts up to 40mph here), there's almost always a pretty big storm following it.

reply to post by couldbeanyone

I'm highly suspicious about this storm though. NEVER BEFORE have we received so much "notice" for a large strong storm, but here they are already flashing warnings on local television for a storm that shouldn't arrive here until after 8pm.

Im a bit suspicious to. There's been a couple days warning for this, and while watching CNN a few minutes ago, they said there's a chance that around 100 tornadoes may touch down tonight.....100. If that does happen, that will dwarf the other weeks tornado outbreak near Dallas

reply to post by Angelsoftheapocalypse


from what i'm seeing you're going to get the worst of it. no matter if it is hype or not, you should probably sleep in the bathroom/basement/center part of the house (i'm sure you know the drill). good luck and take care.

reply to post by buni11687


yup yup yup. take care tonight, everyone. i have a 'feeling' that tonight much of the midwest could be wiped off the face of the earth.

ready to bunker down in south east iowa. right now it is just a simple storm, but im 3 hours east of creston iowa and the hospital there apparently was hit by a tornado.

i hope for the best for the 3 million people in the danger zone.

i used to always tell myself and other people that i wanted to see a tornado before i died. well i got that chance 5 years ago when an f3 passed by my place of work. was truly one of the most amazing things, and scary things a human will ever witness.

ripped a hole in a small town right next to mine and missed my work by 300 yards. once the adrenaline was gone my coworkers and i realized we just watched the tornado enter our town.
all our kids were at school so it was a terrible feeling .
thankfully there was only minor damage and no lives were lost. i even think the injuries were very few.

lets hope that nobody loses their life tonight because of the storms.

reply to post by elitegamer23


storm sirens just went off in my town. i love how they scare all the people when a tornado isnt even possible. they do it just for severe storms.

imo the should be used only when a shtf scenario is happening.

people have been watching the news and the tv just had a civil emergency warning.

we know that a storm is comming. run the sirens when a tornado is extremely possible or on the ground.

a tornado emergency has been issued in wichita , kansas.
that means you should take cover and be ready for the worse.
a tornado is 15 minutes outside of wichita atm .

Weatherunderground Severe Weather Warning page



Take care! and Stay safe!



ETA

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
southeastern Ellsworth County in central Kansas...
northwestern McPherson County in central Kansas...
northeastern Rice County in central Kansas...
southwestern Saline County in central Kansas...

* until 1100 PM CDT

* at 1010 PM CDT... a confirmed tornado was located near Lyons... and
moving northeast at 40 mph.

Hazard... damaging tornado and tennis Ball size hail.

Source... weather spotters confirmed tornado.

Impact... significant house and building damage possible. Mobile
homes completely destroyed if hit. Some trees uprooted or
snapped. Vehicles will likely be thrown by tornadic winds.

* Locations impacted include...
Geneseo... Little River and Marquette.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

To repeat... a tornado is on the ground. Take cover now. Move to an
interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid
windows. If in a Mobile home... a vehicle or outdoors... move to the
closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.

Tornadoes are difficult to see and confirm at night. Take cover now.


Lat... Lon 3876 9792 3851 9770 3827 9821 3844 9834
time... Mot... loc 0313z 230deg 34kt 3840 9821

Tornado... observed
hail... 2.50in


Phillips

From the "tornado warning pop up on the linked page.

The map is dynamic and changes as the severe weather moves and new warnings posted while old ones are taken down.

Prayers and well wishes to all in the path of these storms!

reply to post by jadedANDcynical


wish we lived in a world where storm bunkers were as common as bombs and machine guns.
maybe its just the media is making a big deal about any tornado anymore, but it sure seems like every tornado season is scarier than the one before.

b safe all