Head's Up Central US: Severe Weather and Tornado Threat

2 people hurt as softball-sized hail, tornado pound NW Oklahoma Read more: www.newsnet5.com...

The news said it sounded like gunfire...or shotguns going off...I can't imagine..the weather here has been fantastic...

Thanks for the heads up. A few years back I never really took storms as serious as I am now. This weather is unpredictable and I gotta keep my family safe.

Thanks for the heads up OP!! I'm in Northeastern Oklahoma so we have our emergency bag packed and the bike helmets ready for the kids for tomorrow. Gotta love storm season!

I'm so glad y'all are taking this storm season seriously. I had worried about this spring because NOAA stated that the La Nina pattern was subsiding, so I figured that we would get hit hard while it was in a lull. It is expected to strengthen again in a few months, but for right now, the entire central US is in a danger zone, and the storms from the Pacific just keep coming in, and those storms are strong.

I'm sure that anybody who watches the weather is aware of the severe threat over the next three days, but I started this thread because, if these storms got ugly out here in the desert, I am fearful as to how nasty they will become when they encounter more moisture and more resistance further east.

STAY SAFE!!

In reference to Saturday, the SPC said on Facebook today that they only issue a moderate risk three days before hand about one time a year. The last time they did this was April 27th, 2011. On this day there was a "super outbreak" of tornadoes. There were 346 people killed across 6 states. It lasted three days and broke the record for continuous tornado outbreak with a total of 358 tornadoes.

My husband and I are storm chasers so we have been following Saturday's outlook closely. Dr. Greg Forbes from The Weather Channel has not yet issued a TORCON for the day but I am eager to see what he assigns it.

Here is the current probability map for Saturday. This will change here and there by the time Saturday comes as usual. I also feel the chances will be bumped to high probability by Saturday, but we will have to wait and see.



My husband and I will be chasing Saturday but we haven't picked our target area yet. I will post photos if we catch up to anything worth showing.


Edit: Dr. Greg Forbes has updated the TORCON website. Here are his estimates, which will probably change by Saturday.

Saturday April 14
OK northwest - 7
KS south-central - 7
KS north-central - 5
NE southeast - 5
IA northwest - 4
MN southwest - 4

Thanks for the heads up! I'm in Wichita, right now the sky is black and the rain is coming down hard. Looks like Saturday is going to be especially worrisome in this area. Stay safe, everyone!

reply to post by tport17


You and your husband are storm chasers? That is SO COOL! I hate the death and destruction and fear that storms generate, but they are so amazing to watch.

It certainly gives one perspective on how we are all just tiny specks of life at the mercy of mother nature. I hope you find some awesome storms on the weekend that are nowhere near anybody's house!

reply to post by FissionSurplus

You called the last tornado that ripped through my area. I fully trust your warning as something to keep an eye on
S&F

reply to post by PutAQuarterIn


Thanks! Although the weather channel is calling it as well, I find that any type of anomalous weather out here usually spells trouble the farther east it goes. I also notice that today the wind is picking up from the southwest, pushing to the northeast, so there is lots of energy pushing this particular front. The strong winds from out here will give the front lift and the south winds out of the Mexican desert will bring dry heat. Heat + cold + moisture + low pressure system = severe thunderstorm outbreak and / or tornadoes.

I wouldn't mind one bit if I was completely wrong and NOTHING bad happened. Let's keep our fingers crossed!

Just checking in to say that relatives near Matador, Texas got hit pretty hard. Their road is like pudding today apparently (very rural area where they live with only dirt roads).

Edit: That's North-East of me, btw, Fission. You were right.

I just checked weather. com and it looks like that storm seems to have dissipated. Is it still going on? Hope everyone is okay.

Update on Saturday's storms. This is getting very serious and if you are in this area you should really take note. I urge you to keep the radio or tv on all day AND night as it looks like this outbreak is going to be pretty nasty.

SPC has widened the moderate risk and added a high risk. Here is the current outlook, followed by the probability map.



Dr. Greg Forbes has also updated TORCON.

Saturday April 14
IA northwest - 4
IA southwest - 4 to 5
IA rest - 3 to 4
IL northwest - 3
KS south-central - 7
KS rest of central, east - 5 to 6
MN southwest - 4
MN southeast - 3
MO north - 4
NE southeast - 5
NE northeast - 4 to 5
OK northwest, north-central - 7
OK southwest - 5
SD southeast - 4
TX east panhandle - 5
WI southwest -3
Other areas - less than 2

Saturday Night April 14
IA west - 5
KS south-central, east - 6
OK north, central, west - 6
MN southwest - 5
MO northwest - 4
NE east - 5
TX north-central - 5

SPC has said a tornado outbreak is LIKELY. The tornadoes formed will be strong, long lasting, and combined with very large hail and very strong straight line winds. Another scary point is that there will continue to be storms/tornadoes throughout the night.

My husband and I have decided to head south of Salina, KS Saturday morning and spend all day and evening out there.

If you want to be safe, you need to go WEST of Saline, west of the dryline. Head for Goodland! If you go south, you'll be right in the thick of it.

reply to post by Drew99GT


Well we usually hang around the area targeted for storms until we see something begin to form, then we make a decision on where it is going and where we need to be. If you get too far away from where the storms are set to form, it can be hard to catch back up to them if they are fast moving. It has been predicted these storms will be moving around 50 mph. Doesn't sound too fast when you're driving 60-70mph but you're also not driving as the crow flies. This is what we have always done and it has always turned out pretty well. We also sometimes keep an eye on the other storm chasers with more equipment than us and we will let them steer us in a direction if we're not sure. We should be around Salina before noon and the storms are supposed to start up late afternoon, so I'm not worried about arriving in the thick of it either. But thanks for the advice!

Oh, you're storm chasing? I thought you were trying to avoid the storms! If that';s the case, then I'd head west of Wichita. I'm an experienced storm chaser of about a decade. I was out yesterday in northwest Kansas.

Storm motions tomorrow will be greater than 50 mph - more like 60+ knots. You can't keep up with them, you have to put yourself east of the dryline where storms initiate, and move north or south to intercept them.

If you don't have mobile data though, it's a crap shoot. If you have a smart phone with data, you should download a free radar app at a minimum to see where storms are.

Chasing a high risk setup with damaging long tack tornadoes in high precipitation supercells, with no radar or data, is dangerous.

Well, if you say watch out, I will.

www.abovetopsecret.com...

I am here! So much to say but for the most part FS you know where I am and that we are at risk. Going to get a little rest for the week end ahead, will check back.

J.

It keeps getting worse and worse looking! I usually don't freak out about storms, but this one has me a little nervous. Hope everyone stays safe. Be sure to take warnings seriously. I would rather look like an idiot taking shelter for nothing than take a chance on being hurt by a storm.

Thanks again for the heads up. Looks like I'll be in line for some good storms tomorrow. I'm in Iowa so lets keep our fingers crossed.

The severe storms are expected to strike Saturday afternoon and evening, and the Storm Prediction Center says the outbreak could be a "high-end, life-threatening event."

www.kcrg.com...

Does anyone have a good reliable and accurate up to the minute radar image for Mo.? Thanks!