The big secret is.....

a reply to: Mover3

If the Asian markets stumble again tonight it could take some time to stabilize.

a reply to: Mover3

You sound like one of my 8% friends who is using her home equity to play the stock market.

www.lendingtree.com...

With stocks yielding 17% most people were "all in", on the idea that its kind of stupid leaving $50,000 sitting in bonds or a checking account earning next to nothing? Of course you have to be a little conservative if you do that because you are investing while still paying the interest on the mortgage(which is mostly up front).

So recently you might have moved to cash somewhere between the 3% and 7% drop we've seen with the idea that if the markets are headed south and no longer going to make a 6% return it would be smarter to just pay back the refi loan early?

In 2008 many did not sell their stocks in time and lost their homes, but that was a rare occurrence that only happens at the end of a Bull markets.

Really the only people that have cash to put back into the market are the people that recently sold.

originally posted by: Slichter
a reply to: Mover3

You sound like one of my 8% friends who is using her home equity to play the stock market.

www.lendingtree.com...

With stocks yielding 17% most people were "all in", on the idea that its kind of stupid leaving $50,000 sitting in bonds or a checking account earning next to nothing? Of course you have to be a little conservative if you do that because you are investing while still paying the interest on the mortgage(which is mostly up front).

So recently you might have moved to cash somewhere between the 3% and 7% drop we've seen with the idea that if the markets are headed south and no longer going to make a 6% return it would be smarter to just pay back the refi loan early?

In 2008 many did not sell their stocks in time and lost their homes, but that was a rare occurrence that only happens at the end of a Bull markets.

Really the only people that have cash to put back into the market are the people that recently sold.

I'm not really following your post to be honest. I don't think I've divulged any of my positions here and don't intend to.

People losing a lot of money/their homes is not that rare of an occurrence... how do you think the other side make money?

And this is precisely how a market is made. One thinks up, the other thinks down. Trades happen all the time.

So I've noticed the DJIA bounce off of the 200 day moving average. If this thing can rally back up above the 50 day moving average then all the technical guys will be convinced the selloff was just a panic and they'll get back to business buying it up.

The system, or more accurately my interpretation of the system, is telling us that the DJIA and stocks in general are going to be moving upward until the week of January 19, 2020. Of course you have to remember the system doesn't move the stocks from point A to point B in a straight line. That would be too obvious. So you get these situations where the market turns around slowly for a few weeks until the target date arrives and then the movement ends and a new movement begins. Knowing this, and having seen it in late 2008, I can tell you that it will probably happen again in a similar fashion. But this selloff is way too early. This is not the top of the market. You might see the top in December as a Santa Claus Rally. But the actually target week (January 19, 2020 a.k.a. Week 40) is when the movement will end and a new movement will be telegraphed in the mainstream media.

a reply to: Generation9

Also, this market doesn't have to stop going up in January. If the next Week 40 coded message lets us all know that the market is going higher again then we can all watch it go higher according to plan.

I am definitely not saying that the market top is coming any time soon. I am not saying the current 40 weeks will lead to a massive turn around. I am only saying that the current 40th Week message in effect now is telling me that the market is going upward until January. It might continue upward after that. I don't know. We have to wait for the next message.

And these shooters in the news.... not related. That stuff is some other conspiracy not related to the stock market. It is all part of the cold war against America, but do not mix it up with the 40-Week Cycle.

a reply to: Mover3

You said we should wait till the end of the week for some reason.

The example I gave is someone taking the long view and avoiding risk because they have a home at stake and wouldn't want to gamble that for a $1200 short term gain.

Myriads of different perspectives, often there is a bounce when markets collapse as fast as the US markets did last week.
That is usually due to not enough investor capital available to reinflate the index.
Kind of light volume today, but if I had bought back in I'd be doing fine with sell stops.

originally posted by: Slichter
a reply to: Mover3

You said we should wait till the end of the week for some reason.

The reason was in relation to the thread, I wasn't offering financial advice... do as you please but this thread is interesting nonetheless? Certainly beats the political mudfest that every other thread is.

a reply to: Mover3

The original premise that the "money market" is being manipulated, played out with the recent MSM story about China manipulating the Yuan. They backed off temporarily by setting the exchange rate at 6.9996 Yuan to the US dollar, last quote I got was 7.0602 so maybe that can be changed by market forces?

I also heard that the big brokerages have been buying stock from their clients without immediately selling the stock on the open market? I'm not sure how they are able to buffer trades, my last ETF purchase was executed at $45.9465 per share which doesn't look like it could have been in house.

We didn't get a 9% sell off in the US stock market yet and if the big brokerages can buffer trades and hold stock we may not. Some advisors are suggesting readjusting portfolios from 90% equities to a more traditional 60/40 mix..

Different interpretations are possible.

A. everybody calls their broker and sells a third of their stock.

or

B. You sell all your stock and wait for it to be priced a third lower to buy it back?

Continuing with this thread.
It appears the US shadow government did some damage control yesterday in the stock market the Dow Jones gained 372 points.

Recapping my situation, I short sold the Dow above 27,000 back in July and a limit trade took me out of my short position leaving me with a 6% profit.

Was looking for opinions about when it might be time to go long again.
I'm still in cash as my target for a 9% decline was never reached.

Plenty of wild 300+ point moves in both directions for the Dow Jones with some foreign stock markets making near 30% moves!

I'm not a gambler so am inclined to just wait till some clear investment advantage can be determined.
Probably missed out on the 8.5% recent buy opportunity for Dow Jones stocks.

Yesterday DJT announced plans to delay Chinese tariffs till December.
A sudden devaluation of the Argentine Peso was responsible for the 29% sell off in the MERVAL stock exchange.
Gold is off its $1530 highs.

Observations/stock buyback timing speculations?

a reply to: Slichter

Speculation? I wonder if it's any coincidence those tariffs keep getting pushed back, notice how they've now gone from September to December...

Last week we finished where we started.

The Fake News Media is doing everything they can to crash the economy because they think that will be bad for me and my re-election. The problem they have is that the economy is way too strong and we will soon be winning big on Trade, and everyone knows that, including China!

Trump knows... obviously.

I see it. Something very political and sociological is happening.

originally posted by: Generation9
I see it. Something very political and sociological is happening.

Technical hitch at London this morning too

a reply to: Mover3

Todays news that Germany is going to re-balance their central banking policy with perhaps lower interest rates helped the German DAX jump 150 points. The DAX closed down about 9% from the July highs today, the UK FTSE closed down about 8%.
Some investors move to cash before weekends during high volatility.

DJT also predicted the US Federal Reserve would not lower interest rates in September which makes sense since the US economy is doing better than the rest of the world.

a reply to: Generation9

DJT has politicized the US stock market success and its true that the Republican tax break for businesses put the US economy on the top of the charts this year.

The analysts all seem confused about what is happening next though.

The rest of the global stock markets are down 8 to 20% with talks of global recession.
The isolationist talk and tariffs have kept the US ahead of the other countries thus far.
If the US follows Europe and Asia into recession we can expect more than the current 5.8% US stock market correction.

The pattern is changing and thus far I haven't had much luck predicting whether the market will go up or down for the immediate future.

We are probably biding our time in a market trading range till September so only the gamblers should be trading?

Once a long term investor sells stocks and uses that cash to buy bonds or pay off a mortgage the money is not available to rebuild the stock index so you might expect a decline till that process ends?

a reply to: Slichter

It is certainly difficult to predict the day-to-day or weekly swings.

I read ZeroHedge and I'm seeing some end of the world doom and gloom predictions for the market.

What is a trader to do?

I say buy the dips. And then hold for the big move. Brexit is going to happen, correct? I think there will be a flight to safety. Capital will come in to the U.S. stock market. And the bond market. Which will lower rates and spur more economic activity. Things look good. I think the mainstream media would like to talk the market down for anti-Trump reasons, but the 40-week cycle indicates up.

We can only wait and see.

a reply to: Generation9

Buying the dips might not work because when the triangle pattern reaches the end it can just suddenly drop lower into a new triangle. Sometimes they go up but its a gamble, is this triangle going to be high or low?

originally posted by: Slichter
a reply to: Generation9

Buying the dips might not work because when the triangle pattern reaches the end it can just suddenly drop lower into a new triangle. Sometimes they go up but its a gamble, is this triangle going to be high or low?

Technical analysts...

I don't really think TA has much input here, we're effectively guessing that there's some big money group sending signals through the media... not charts.

Chart reading helps. The technical analysis shows what has already happened in an attempt to see patterns. And I think those patterns are self-fulfilling and leading other traders along a path. The final pivotal movement is not necessarily predictable. But the whole show unfolds in a familiar and reasonable way.

That is why the greater signal needs to be read.

The "project" is coming to some sort of theatrical fruition along the way. It looks like something has been accomplished. Everybody watches and pontificates. Money moves. Something gets created.

a reply to: Generation9

Yes I am sure I lack the nuance necessary to convey the paramountcy of endowing the difference between random speculation and a robust system for responsible investing. Therefore rather than prattle on with y expansive vocabulary I beseech you to lay bare your system of ratiocination for the decline.

You would buy the dip?