Super Tuesday 2012: Information and Results Thread

reply to post by KonquestAbySS


Think that all you want but the reason they do these polls is so they can make projections. After a quick search it looks like the typical margin of error for an exit poll is +/-3%. For Georgia to turn out differently than the polls would mean a margin of error seven times higher than normal. For Virginia you'd be looking at a margin of error about 14 times higher than normal. This just doesn't happen. With the methods used and the distance between the front runner and second in both of these states one can easily make an accurate prediction of who will win. That's the whole point of predictive statistics.

So now 4 states have been projected.

Georgia for Gingrich

Virginia, Vermont, and Mass. for Romney

The anti-romneys really did Paul alot of good. I get the feeling this was a last minute plan by Santorum and Gingrich supporters in Virginia to get behind Paul against Romney (they probably contemplated voting for *gasp* isolationist Paul). Had they planned this longer, Paul may have very well clinched Virginia for first place....

Originally posted by Xcalibur254
reply to post by Wookiep

 

In order for these projections to be so wrong there would have had to be a large problem with the methodology behind them which is very unlikely considering the accuracy they've had in other states.

I don't think the problem is the the methodology behind the projections. Isn't the same company, handling the projections, having the same outcome every time. With all the recent state's winners being declared with astronomically low number of votes having been counted, there's a LARGER PROBLEM occurring . So the methodology is not the problem, seems things are working according to plan. Considering the implications, seems something else is afoot here.

How can you declare a winner with less then 1 percent in? Is that even possibly? I can understand a winner being declared after hours and 90 percent of the vote counted (this gives some wiggle room for errors), but less then 1 percent?

Elections should not have immediate results based on less then 1 percent of a vote. What happened to the days when it took hours for votes to be counted after polls closed? Now it's immediate. They are not even trying anymore to make it at least seem believable. That fact that the predictions are so accurate based on less then one percent, is disturbing. And yes, I understand it's the computer age, and most voting is done via this method. But I've also read enough about Diebold to understand how flawed this model is.

If it looks like a duck, walks like a duck, talks like a duck...

I think the larger problem here is that fraud that's occurring in every state. All vote counting should be openly monitored, and broadcast on each states public access if need be. After counts are turned in, votes should not be immediately destroyed. Perhaps have a few independent agencies count, then recount the votes, and compare.

Are people this ignorant? (not directed at quote post, just a generalized rhetorical question)

Originally posted by Xcalibur254
reply to post by Wookiep

 

It makes sense to project a winner even at 0%. Every poll is showing Gingrich taking the state easily with almost 50% of the vote and the next closest candidate with about 25%. With results like that one can quite confidently project at 0%. As for Virginia I'd say you could also make a pretty accurate projection of Romney taking the state with only 3% of the vote reported. Every poll is showing Romney being about 40 points higher than Paul. In order for these projections to be so wrong there would have had to be a large problem with the methodology behind them which is very unlikely considering the accuracy they've had in other states.

And yet Dr Paul trails by 18% in Virginia(59-41) with 78 % of the vote counted in Virginia??

If Dr Paul trailed in "every poll" by "40 points" and actual results at 78% reporting are 22% off, should one start looking for a "large problem" with "methodology"??

reply to post by OutKast Searcher


Yeah, the same people who are constantly telling us that exit and straw polls are meaningless... I am a big fan of equality. You cannot argue that Dr. Paul does not get adequate media coverage. Let us assume right now that he has no chance to win the nomination--FINE. But from the start, with no delegates allocated they should have given every candidate a fair shot to present their case. ALL OF THEM. That was the first large failure of the people giving us predictions.

And now we look at it (still with pretty poor media coverage) and they call the votes at 3%. This comes down to what they want to plant in people's minds. How many people do not know that only 3% of the votes are counted? They turn on their tv real quick to find what?? Checkmarks next to someone that may not have even won. Do they tune back in to make sure? Not always. So then the media perpetuates this mentality in everyone's minds, that Romney is winner of the lands and will become the GOP candidate. So then you come into your own thread and progress the same ideals. Yeah, Georgia and Massachusetts can probably be predicted pretty easily. But the other states (and even those two) need FAIR attention. And from what I have seen you post in other threads, I think you would agree with that.

No?

Ron Paul won't win one single state in this entire Super Tuesday contest.

Not even one.

I don't say this out of hate, but let's be honest here: Whether you believe he just isn't popular with the general populace or they are rigging the votes, how can Ron Paul win any of these states if he couldn't even win Maine?

Originally posted by freedom12

Originally posted by Xcalibur254
reply to post by Wookiep

 

It makes sense to project a winner even at 0%. Every poll is showing Gingrich taking the state easily with almost 50% of the vote and the next closest candidate with about 25%. With results like that one can quite confidently project at 0%. As for Virginia I'd say you could also make a pretty accurate projection of Romney taking the state with only 3% of the vote reported. Every poll is showing Romney being about 40 points higher than Paul. In order for these projections to be so wrong there would have had to be a large problem with the methodology behind them which is very unlikely considering the accuracy they've had in other states.

And yet Dr Paul trails by 18% in Virginia(59-41) with 78 % of the vote counted in Virginia??

If Dr Paul trailed in "every poll" by "40 points" and actual results at 78% reporting are 22% off, should one start looking for a "large problem" with "methodology"??

They don't use the polling data we see before these elections to project.

They use exit polling the night of the election.

And if you go look at those pre-polls that show Romney +40...there is at least 25% that didn't choose either Romney or Paul...but in Virginia, there is no write in and no option for "no preference"...so it looks like most of those voted for Paul, or against Romney.

www.cnn.com...

rp only wins in the 18-29 catagory ....... cnn bs

CNN projects Tennessee for Santorum.

I thought Gingrich would have a better chance in Tennessee since it's southern? Maybe Gingrich's support is restricted to the deep south specifically I guess.

reply to post by PhysicsAdept

Yeah, the same people who are constantly telling us that exit and straw polls are meaningless... I am a big fan of equality.

Who said exit polls are meaningless???

Straw polls like Aimes is pretty useless...or else where is Bachmann now???

Exit polls are fairly accurate...I don't think anyone says they are meaningless.

You cannot argue that Dr. Paul does not get adequate media coverage. Let us assume right now that he has no chance to win the nomination--FINE. But from the start, with no delegates allocated they should have given every candidate a fair shot to present their case. ALL OF THEM. That was the first large failure of the people giving us predictions.

That's a business decision made by those in charge.

You see it as they didn't give him media coverage, and that is why he is doing poorly.

They see it as, we aren't going to give him media coverage, because he will do poorly.

And now we look at it (still with pretty poor media coverage) and they call the votes at 3%. This comes down to what they want to plant in people's minds. How many people do not know that only 3% of the votes are counted? They turn on their tv real quick to find what?? Checkmarks next to someone that may not have even won. Do they tune back in to make sure? Not always. So then the media perpetuates this mentality in everyone's minds, that Romney is winner of the lands and will become the GOP candidate.

Believe me...if they get a projection wrong...it will be a big story.

And when has a projection been wrong this primary season? The Iowa vote was recounted and there was a different winner...but that wasn't a projection.

And they always wait until the polls close to make their projections.

So I'm not sure what the issue is...if their projections end up being correct all the time...why are you upset by them? It doesn't matter if they say Romney won now, or if he says he won at 1am...he still won.

So then you come into your own thread and progress the same ideals. Yeah, Georgia and Massachusetts can probably be predicted pretty easily. But the other states (and even those two) need FAIR attention. And from what I have seen you post in other threads, I think you would agree with that.

I'm just reporting what the media is projecting...I'm not projecting myself.

I'm fine with the projections...they have been very accurate.

I don't know how projecting this wins would effect other states having "fair" attention.



BTW....CNN just projected Santorum will win TN.

Originally posted by nofear39
www.cnn.com...

rp only wins in the 18-29 catagory .......

cnn bs

That's the only age category he ever wins.

Why do you think this is BS???

reply to post by nofear39


That's pretty much been the case in every primary so far. Why is it BS? Paul seems to have drawn most of his supporters from the internet. The internet is still very much dominated by the youth. Unfortunately for Paul while the youth may be the most vocal and passionate they also have the worst track record with actually going out and voting.

Originally posted by SonicInfinity
Ron Paul won't win one single state in this entire Super Tuesday contest.

Not even one.

I don't say this out of hate, but let's be honest here: Whether you believe he just isn't popular with the general populace or they are rigging the votes, how can Ron Paul win any of these states if he couldn't even win Maine?

edit on 3/6/2012 by SonicInfinity because: Minor edits

He might win Alaska or North Dakota...maybe in Idaho too.

But there is zero polling data from those states...so all we have to go on is Ron Paul's own campaign saying they have a good chance there.

gingrich won georgia
romney has won
virginia
vermont.. paul second
ohio
mass.
santorum
okl.
tenn

reply to post by OutKast Searcher


No.

He won't.

If he does, I will be absolutely shocked.

So far...

GEORGIA - 26% reporting:

49% | Gingrich
23% | Santorum
22% | Romney

MASSACHUSETTS - 11% reporting:

73% | Romney
12% | Santorum
09% | Paul

OHIO - 13% reporting:

39% | Romney
37% | Santorum
14% | Gingrich

OKLAHOMA - 5% reporting:

37% | Santorum
27% | Romney
25% | Gingrich

TENNESSEE - 19% reporting:

44% | Santorum
28% | Romney
18% | Gingrich

VIRGINIA - 97% reporting:

59% | Romney
41% | Paul

VERMONT - 25% reporting:

39% | Romney
26% | Paul
24% | Santorum

I'm really looking forward to the Texas primary after watching the results thus far. Texas, it's Ron Paul's home state, it's culturally southern which works out well for Gingrich, it is connected deep into the west and is strong religious, which works out for Santorum, and Romney will have a hard time coming first in this state for all those reasons.

I see Texas as the key battle state in the primary.... at the moment it looks like Santorum leads but Gingrich may very well start contesting for the state more than anybody else.....

How could Ron Paul have done SO BAD in Georgia?
I kept seeing supporters everywhere. Every republican meeting I went to, they were a large faction.
I just do not get it.

WHO is voting for Santorum?
WHAT are you folks doing?
WHEN will the majority see the light?
WHERE are all the Ron Paul votes?
WHY will Romney win the nomination?