Super Tuesday 2012: Information and Results Thread

Yes, I'm starting this one early because we have 10 contests going on. So I thought it would be a good idea to have one big thread with all the Super Tuesday states primary/caucus information, current polling, and then to updated and discuss the results on Super Tuesday.

Here is as much information as I could find on each state, some states have more information than others. If others have additional information, please share.

Alaska

Type: Closed Proportional Caucus
Delegates: 24 at stake out of a total of 27
Information: alaskarepublicans.com...
Current Polling: No Current Polling Data Found

Georgia

Type: Open Proportional Primary
Delegates: 76
Information: www.sos.ga.gov...
Current Polling: www.realclearpolitics.com...

Idaho

Type: Closed Proportional Caucus.
Delegates: 32
Information: www.idaho-republican-caucus.com...
Notes: This is the first year Idaho will be running a Caucus.
Current Polling: No Polling Data Found

Massachusetts

Type: Open Proportional Primary
Delegates: 41
Information: www.sec.state.ma.us...
Notes: Romney is currently favored to win, polling at 64%
Current Polling: www.nationalpolls.com...

North Dakota

Type: Non-Binding Closed Caucus
Delegates: 28
Information: www.northdakotagop.org...
Current Polling: No Polling Data Found

Ohio

Type: Open Proportional Primary
Delegates: 65
Information: www.sos.state.oh.us...
Notes: This seems to be the BIG race for Super Tuesday, I expect most coverage to be focused on Ohio because it is a swing state and it is polling to be a very close race.
Current Polling:

Oklahoma

Type: Closed Proportional Primary
Delegates: 43
Information: www.ok.gov...&_Elections/2012_State_and_Federal_Elections/Presidential_Preferential_Primary_Election.html
Notes: Santorum appears to be leading.
Current Polling: www.nationalpolls.com...

Tennessee

Type: Open Proportional Primary (Delegates are awarded by district and statewide)
Delegates: 58
Information: www.tn.gov...
Notes: Another close race between Santorum and Romney
Current Polling:www.nationalpolls.com...

Vermont

Type: Open Hybrid Primary
Delegates: 17
Information: www.vermont-elections.org...
Current Polling: www.realclearpolitics.com...

Virginia

Type: Open Hybrid Primary
Delegates: 49
Information: www.sbe.virginia.gov...
Notes: Only Romney and Paul are on the ballot in Virginia
Current Polling: www.realclearpolitics.com...



It should be a fun night, it will probably be a long night, and I'm sure there will be some surprises. We may see all 4 candidates win a state on Super Tuesday.

nice to see all the information to get into this, not canadian but i've been waiting for super tuesday for a while

hopefully ron paul can pick up some more delegates and maybe close the gap
doubt he will win any of those states... i would almost say vermont would be his best chance tho but he can win the election without winning a state if he has to

my biggest hope for super tuesday is that either santorum (really cant stand that sweatervest) or gingrich will drop out soon afterwards, preferably santorum or both

as for those against ron paul i dont see any likelihood he will drop out any time soon for any reason
even if he doesnt win he's in it to make a point.

if his revolution does not arise he has still started a movement along with OWS, anonymous and others exposing the corruption in the world and even if ron paul does not emerge as the leader of this movement maybe it is better if it does not have a leader

ps. i know i've disagreed with you in the past but i congratulate you for jumping on this topic and i hope the conversation on this thread is civilized

reply to post by trust_no_one


I believe the Ron Paul camp thinks that they will do very well in Alaska, Idaho, and North Dakota.

All three of those have no current polling data, but I can see Ron Paul doing well in all three of those states. They are all very rural states, there are no huge urban areas, they are low voting population states and I think Ron Paul has been focusing there while others have not. I think Ron Paul is even in Alaska himself today.

I really don't think Santorum or Gingrich will drop out. Gingrich will likely win Georgia...and he will use that to extend his campaign. Santorum is looking to pick up a few wins.

I think there is a very good chance that each candidate gets some wins on Super Tuesday...which will just extend the primary even further.

Throw it out there

Gingrich 1 state gain

Santorum 2 state gain

Romney rest

reply to post by OutKast Searcher


This is the way I see it, I agree in this prediction that neither Romney, Santorum or Gingrich will drop out after super tuesday. I see Romney coming out with possibly 400 delegates in votes, I see Santorum coming out with 200, and I see Gingrich coming out with 150 (this could all change in the convention, but this is the estimated I'd imagine they'd have in delegates). Why would Gingrich need to drop out? His got Alabama and Mississippi coming up after super tuesday and he is more favourable in the deep south. Santorum? At the moment he is the lead alternative to Romney, he'll wait until he reaches Pennsylvania before making any decisions. He has Kansas, a stronghold, coming up on saturday. And Paul? We know he ain't going anywhere.

There will be mounting pressure on Gingrich I predict in the days to come, especially if he for some reason does poorly in Georgia, however it does him more good to stick it out in the race, maybe atleast until after the Mississippi and Alabama primaries.... he may end up looking for a deal come convention. Who knows.....

reply to post by Southern Guardian


It's really a mess...isn't it?

Romney has the Coasts, Santorum has Middle America, and Gingrich has the South. Throw Ron Paul in there claiming to winning delegates from Caucuses where he didn't win the preference poll....and you have a really huge problem for the GOP.

I think the GOP leadership was thinking that even if there wasn't a front runner by Super Tuesday, that it would all be taken care of by Super Tuesday. But I just don't see that happening. I mean...if what Ron Paul's camp is saying is accurate, we could see him win 3 states on Tuesday. That leaves Romney probably winning 3, Santorum winning 3, and Gingrich winning 1. That's going to just further confuse things.

It will definately be an interesting night tomorrow.

A lot of new polling out today.

Ohio:
www.realclearpolitics.com...


Tennessee:
www.realclearpolitics.com...


Georgia:
www.realclearpolitics.com...

reply to post by Southern Guardian


If Gingrich does poorly in GA and doesn't drop out - the GOP will drop the bomb on him. It will be the one time that Nancy Pelosi and the GOP work in unison.

reply to post by KillerQueen


But it looks like Gingrich has Georgia wrapped up.

Which will allow him to continue his campaign and focus on the South.

Rick will most likely win Tennessee. Everyone I know is voting for him it seems. I'm not but I am just a token liberal around here.

Originally posted by antonia
Rick will most likely win Tennessee. Everyone I know is voting for him it seems. I'm not but I am just a token liberal around here.

I don't know...Tennessee looks like it's going to be a close one.

The media is really pushing Romney and this idea that he is "surging"...it may make the difference in a lot of states on Tuesday to sway those undecided voters.

Just Remember this,

'It's Not the People Who Vote that Count; It's the People Who Count the Votes'

Ron Paul won't be allowed to win any states..... Romney will win all three states that Ron Paul is expecting to do well in. They can't allow Ron Paul to gain any momentum. Wait and see..

Soul

Just got back from casting my vote for Ron Paul in Massachusetts. My town has about 17,000 people and a few different polling places but I was really surprised when I showed up around 5pm and there was not a single person holding a sign....for any candidate.

Poll workers told me that turnout had been very poor so far.

Romney is gonna win my state anyway, but god dammit, people and their apathy!

My Predictions:

Alaska:
37% - Romney
32% - Santorum
20% - Paul
10% - Gingrich

Georgia:
45% - Gingrich
25% - Romney
23% - Santorum
6% - Paul

Idaho:
41% - Romney
26% - Paul
25% - Santorum
7% - Gingrich

Massachusetts:
59% - Romney
23% - Santorum
13% - Paul
4% - Gingrich

North Dakota:
32% - Santorum
30% - Romney
28% - Paul
9% - Gingrich

Ohio:
35% - Santorum
33% - Romney
21% - Gingrich
10% - Paul

Oklahoma:
40% - Santorum
28% - Gingrich
27% - Romney
4% - Paul

Tennessee:
32% - Santorum
31% - Romney
26% - Gingrich
10% - Paul

Vermont:
41% - Romney
28% - Santorum
25% - Paul
5% - Gingrich

Virginia:
66% - Romney
33% - Paul

The most critical state tonight is Ohio. If Romney wins Ohio there is little doubt the nomination is his. If Santorum wins Ohio the battle will continue on, likely to the convention.

Originally posted by OutKast Searcher
reply to post by Southern Guardian

 

Romney has the Coasts, Santorum has Middle America, and Gingrich has the South. Throw Ron Paul in there claiming to winning delegates from Caucuses where he didn't win the preference poll....and you have a really huge problem for the GOP.

I think the GOP leadership was thinking that even if there wasn't a front runner by Super Tuesday, that it would all be taken care of by Super Tuesday. But I just don't see that happening. I mean...if what Ron Paul's camp is saying is accurate, we could see him win 3 states on Tuesday. That leaves Romney probably winning 3, Santorum winning 3, and Gingrich winning 1. That's going to just further confuse things.

The republicans are degenerating into a conflicted mess!

They havn't got a candidate they can all get behind. They have had the PR disasters of the elcetions in certain states such as Iowa and Maine.

They've also got the problem of Ron Paul, if he doesn't make nomination the majority of his supporters probably won't vote and if he does make nomination his heavy reliance on delegates will cause serious controversy.

The longer this primary drags out especially with four contenders the worse its going to look for whoever does win.

I wouldn't be suprised if this primary caused a deep enough rift in the republican party for it to split into two parties!

Originally posted by Misoir
Alaska:
37% - Romney
32% - Santorum
20% - Paul
10% - Gingrich

Georgia:
45% - Gingrich
25% - Romney
23% - Santorum
6% - Paul

Idaho:
41% - Romney
26% - Paul
25% - Santorum
7% - Gingrich

Massachusetts:
59% - Romney
23% - Santorum
13% - Paul
4% - Gingrich

North Dakota:
32% - Santorum
30% - Romney
28% - Paul
9% - Gingrich

Ohio:
35% - Santorum
33% - Romney
21% - Gingrich
10% - Paul

Oklahoma:
40% - Santorum
28% - Gingrich
27% - Romney
4% - Paul

Tennessee:
32% - Santorum
31% - Romney
26% - Gingrich
10% - Paul

Vermont:
41% - Romney
28% - Santorum
25% - Paul
5% - Gingrich

Virginia:
66% - Romney
33% - Paul

The most critical state tonight is Ohio. If Romney wins Ohio there is little doubt the nomination is his. If Santorum wins Ohio the battle will continue on, likely to the convention.

Are those real numbers or just your projections? If real, please post a link because I don't see any numbers coming out anywhere...

reply to post by Wookiep


My apologies, that was a prediction. I will make that clear in the post.

Is anyone else doing what North Dakota is doing with the whole finger print thing so voters don't vote twice? If not was that just implemented recently?

Did CNN just show on the ticker that voters who decided today is at %32 for Ron Paul over the other 3 candidates? This might be interesting.

Originally posted by Misoir
reply to post by Wookiep

 

My apologies, that was a prediction. I will make that clear in the post.

No worries, just kinda caught me off guard.