Ron Paul won't contest Florida?

reply to post by getreadyalready


Wouldn't that be something to behold; Mr. "Federal Reserve Can Do No Wrong" endorsing Mr. "Audit the Fed".

It might be even more interesting if Cain were to endorse Palin....interesting because Todd Palin has recently endorsed Newt Gingrich....that would be quite the back-peddling sideshow.

My bet is that Cain endorses the "Supreme with Xtra Cheese".

reply to post by getreadyalready


Whatever you do, I would say it's best not to be hasty about it and let your emotions get the best of you. I don't know if he's coming to Colorado either, I sure hope he does, and it will suck if he doesn't. He's got my vote no matter what though, because in my opinion anything else will be same old same old status quo nonsense. See what happens first. It sounds like Paul wants to go to Florida and he might still, depending on how things go in the next couple rounds!

The campaign is also factoring in Florida's winner-take-all reward for the winner.

Florida is also an extremely expensive state for ads.

reply to post by eLPresidente


The winner-take-all, and the fact that Herman Cain came out of nowhere to win the Straw Poll, and the fact that the Tea Party totally dominated the 2010 election is all the more reason to spend $6M here!!

If he gets the delegates, then they are his to keep, whereas other states like Louisianna and Iowa, the Primary is just for show, the delegates are not committed to anyone.

reply to post by getreadyalready


Hopefully he knows what he is doing.
I wouldn't pull my support for him. Maybe he is anticipating a state so contested that there wont be any far and away winner. He needs every vote he can get though to get the piece he needs. Don't lose the faith.

What are the percentages for all the other candidates there? Do you know?

Yeah Ron Paul won't contest! Too bad!

Originally posted by getreadyalready
I'm a Ron Paul supporter, and a Floridian, and I've been stumping for him down here for at least 6 months now. Herman Cain won the Straw Poll here, we have one of the most active Tea Parties in the Country, and the state is completely up for grabs. Florida has a ton of delegates, the Republican National Convention will be held here, etc., etc., etc.

What the hell is Paul thinking to completely bypass us?

Campaign Chairman Jesse Benton said Sunday that the Texas congressman will focus his efforts on states with February caucuses after South Carolina.

He specifically cited Louisiana, Nevada and Maine as places where they are bulking up their operations.

“We’re focusing there to win those caucuses,” Benton said in the spin room after Sunday’s debate.

Benton guessed it would cost about $9 million to run a comprehensive program in the Sunshine State. He said they will not run television ads there, send mailers or do phone banking.

Because the state moved up its primary in violation of Republican National Committee rules, Florida lost half its delegates.

“It’s such an expensive state, and with their delegates cut in half, the math just doesn’t make any sense,” he added. “We’re a delegate-focused campaign. We’re focused on winning the 1,150 delegates to secure the nomination. And the amount of resources and time it would take to compete for those 50 delegates just didn’t make sense to us.”

Politico

OK, so we lost half of our delegates, but this is where the real election, for President, will be won or lost. This is where all the hype and energy surrounding the RNC will be. This is where 750,000 Jews live, so he can put to bed the anti-Israel bunk.

Paul needs Florida. Without Florida he won't get the nomination, guaranteed.

He will still be on the ballot here, so he may still have a decent finish, but if other candidates swarm the state, then Paul is dead in the water.

What a tactical mistake this is. Not only for his campaign, but also to give his many supporters here a punch in the gut.

I'm seriously disappointed and pissed off, and I don't even know what I will do with my support now. I can't support any other GOP candidate, nor Obama. Will this just take the wind out of the voter energy here? Will people (like me) decide to just not turn out for the primary?

Speechless.

ETA:
To elaborate a little more from my follow up posts below. This is a win for Perry, Newt, and Santorum, which means this is also a win for Romney. Romney benefits from a large fractured field of candidates. Perry was ready to drop out after Iowa, but now he can spend that big bankroll in Florida and resurrect his campaign with a decent finish here, which means he will still be in the race all the way up to Super Tuesday.

Paul had a chance to get momentum from 4 straight strong finishes in January, and narrow the field and benefit from the anti-Romney sentiment, and it looks like he is going to miss that opportunity.

edit on 10-1-2012 by getreadyalready because: (no reason given)

edit on 10-1-2012 by getreadyalready because: (no reason given)

Florida is full of old people who are George Bush republicans, Ron would be wasting his time and money

reply to post by getreadyalready


I don't think it's because he's scared, I think it's because he knows full well he'll be fighting an uphill battle. While yes, I find it odd as well, but trying to argue pointedly about Israel to a bunch of Jewish people is like trying to crack a steel wall with your forehead.

Especially if those views are Ron Paul's.

After a strong 2nd place in New Hampshire, and CNN coverage in S. Carolina made Paul out to be the favorite there! Now is there more reason to attack Florida with all of his resources? Florida is a winner-take-all state, so if he eeks it out, then those delegates are all his!

According to the CNN coverage last night, a lot of the undecideds switched over to Paul. Florida polls were showing about 50% still undecided.

Originally posted by getreadyalready
After a strong 2nd place in New Hampshire, and CNN coverage in S. Carolina made Paul out to be the favorite there! Now is there more reason to attack Florida with all of his resources? Florida is a winner-take-all state, so if he eeks it out, then those delegates are all his!

According to the CNN coverage last night, a lot of the undecideds switched over to Paul. Florida polls were showing about 50% still undecided.

The problem with this is that Paul depends on Independents, young first time voters, and a small group of Dem crossovers.

And FL is a closed primary, and registration has already closed to participate in the Jan. 31 primary. So there are no last minute voters, no rush of voters that will be registering last minute...and Ron Paul is doing very poorly in the polls in FL.

Ron Paul has his base of about 10% in FL...that's about it. He doesn't have the money to compete in FL and he knows it. So instead of going, trying, dropping lots of money and still losing...he is going to say he is "skipping" it so that his loss doesn't look as bad. Because if he tried and lost...that looks horrible...but if you say you are skipping and lose (Like Perry in NH), no one really cares.

Honestly...I don't think you want Ron Paul to come to FL. Doesn't look like he is going to do great in SC...back to back poor performances would kill his campaign.

reply to post by OutKast Searcher


I'm starting to think he will actually win SC! The CNN coverage last night was honest and let people talk, and just about everyone they talked to was a Paul supporter. When they took a show of hands, Paul won easily.

In Florida, I linked to some stories earlier. They have already had a rush of people changing party affiliations and registering as Republicans. The laws are a little more restrictive this year, but people were aware of this and they changed early.

And, as I said earlier, if he truly wants to be President, then no campaign money is wasted here, because it will translate over to November's election.

I'm not a professional campaign manager, so of course my opinion could be flawed, but I know a lot about the Tea Party here in Florida, and just last night I had an older gentleman, very rich, registered Democrat whose wife is a registered Republican, and they both said they were planning to vote for Ron Paul for President! Only the wife gets to vote in the primary though. They were surprised and excited to find out I felt the same way.

Paul can carry both the OWS and the Tea Party folks. No other candidate can say that!

reply to post by getreadyalready

I'm starting to think he will actually win SC!

Whoa...If that happens I would be very surprised.

I know people hate polls...but how have they done so far??? They have been pretty darn accurate.

In the latest SC poll...Paul gets 9%. Around 40% say they might change their mind. But in the question of what is their second choice for president...Paul drops to 7%.
www.publicpolicypolling.com...

He has a week and a half to completely turn around his campaign in SC...if he does it, then he deserves a lot of credit...but I don't see that happening.


And looking at the latest FL poll. Ron Paul has a 34% favoribility rating...Romney has 73%.
www.quinnipiac.edu...

I understand you are pulling for your guy, and most of the time that means the people you surround yourself have similiar views...this is why everyone who uses their personal experience, personal relationships, yard signs in their neighborhood....they all think their guy is guaranteed to win.


I admit, he did better than I thought he would in Iowa and NH...but he was polling well in both of those places weeks ahead of the elections. That isn't the case for SC and FL>

reply to post by OutKast Searcher

I admit, he did better than I thought he would in Iowa and NH...but he was polling well in both of those places weeks ahead of the elections. That isn't the case for SC and FL>

Iowa went exactly as I expected, except for Santorum replacing Newt in second place.

New Hampshire was a big surprise for me. It is a very moderate area, and Paul is not moderate at all! I thought he would get 3rd or 4th. I really thought Santorum and Huntsman both had shots at beating Paul in NH.

Now, in SC, Newt has a good shot at jumping up in the polls, and Santorum's religion might bolster his chances, but I really think the Tea Party Conservatism will keep Paul at least in 2nd place, and maybe 1st if Romney splits votes with the others. Keeping my fingers crossed on SC.

For several months, I have had the hope that Paul would get strong 2nds and 3rds in every poll leading up to Florida and then win Florida. That is part of why I was so disappointed in him abandoning Florida. Iowa went as expected, NH was going better than expected, SC is looking good, so my early prediction was looking great, but then he moved the goal post! Dammit!

Like the moderator said, Florida is a winner takes all state, and with the demographics favoring a republican status quo, ala Romney, Paul would be a fool to blow his money shot on Florida. All it takes is one hanging chad majority vote and Romney takes all the delegates. Paul would have wasted his money and not gained a single delegate. Better to place decently and battle on in other states and win, rather than die a quick financial death within Florida. Besides, if he were to blow all his cash, a third party run would be out of the question. No Paul supporter wants that possibility to disappear.