Ron Paul won't contest Florida?

Originally posted by getreadyalready

Originally posted by trustnothing
was florida not the rigged one that got Bush in? Maybe he knows he cant win and doesnt want to upset his momentum, maybee hes doesnt like the sunshine

Maybe, but it feels more like he doesn't care about his supporters here. This is a morale crusher.

Perhaps he has support there so he is focusing his efforts in places who are not as familiar with him. Unless of course you would rather seem him blow wads of cash across the country in every state?

I'm just throwing that out there. I know he has taken in a lot of funding from the average person, unlike the other candidates who are backed by deep pockets.

It might be that, or something entirely different. No reason to get mad at him though.

reply to post by Freenrgy2


Back at the Florida Straw Poll, Cain dominated, and the rest of the field was very close. Paul wasn't a strong finisher, but he was only 5 points below Romney, and many many of those Herman Cain votes would likely go to Paul, so from that perspective, I believe he would do well in Florida. Perry is close to dropping out, Bachmann is gone and those Tea Party votes likely belong to Paul.

Source

Herman Cain, 37.1%
Rick Perry, 15.4%
Mitt Romney, 14.0%
Rick Santorum, 10.9%
Ron Paul, 10.4%
Newt Gingrich, 8.4%
Jon Huntsman, 2.3%
Michele Bachmann, 1.5%

I'll try to find some more recent polls.

ETA:

Thirty-six percent of the 560 likely GOP voters questioned by Quinnipiac (Conn.) University said they preferred Romney, though more than half (54 percent) said they could still change their minds before Florida's Jan. 31 presidential primary.

The random telephone survey conducted between Jan. 4-8 of likely Florida primary voters has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich followed Romney with 24 percent and former U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania was third at 16 percent. U.S. Rep. Ron Paul received backing from 10 percent. Texas Gov. Rick Perry had 5 percent and former ambassador Jon Huntsman had 2 percent.

Source

Not that I trust telephone polling, but Paul appears to need a big boost here.



So, more than half of the likely voters polled are still undecided. Seems like a perfect place to spend some of your campaign money if you ask me.

I don't think it is a strategic mistake not to spend a great deal of money in Florida. The GOP will not allow him a win anyway. His vote count would mean very little, even with a strong finish, unless he stumbles in the caucuses that precede Florida. The party apparatus virtually guarantee Ron Paul will not win, and thus NO delegates from Florida.
Ron Paul people in Florida need to take up this slack, and help their candidate, not piss on his reasons for not spending a lot of money there.
IMO.

Simple cost/benefit analysis is all this is.
2nd

Florida still has 50 Delegates. That is the 11th highest total in the Country, even after being cut down from their normal 99.

Delegate Breakdown by State

The nominee needs 1150 delegates to win the nomination. That means Florida's 50 are worth almost 5% of the total needed.

ETA: And all 50 of Florida's are "pledged" delegates. Unlike Iowa where a win was hollow since all 28 are "unpledged" and they can vote however they want at the RNC. Louisianna, where they plan to focus attention, has 46 delegates, but 28 are unpledged, which means even if he wins the primary, he is only guaranteed 18 delegates.

New Hampshire only has 12 and S. Carolina only has 25. Why not skip those two and go to Florida early?

reply to post by getreadyalready


Went over to Daily Paul and he stated in an interview that he will have a presence in Florida, although he's waiting to see what happens here and in South Carolina and then, of course, he'll have to look at his budget. Reading between the lines, I think he's indicating if Romney continues to slip and RP gains ground on him these next couple of rounds, his campaign might be more inclined to pump some cash & bodies into Florida.

reply to post by Freenrgy2


I hope he does change his mind, but I still think their strategy is flawed.

He isn't fighting Romney at the moment. At this moment he is fighting Santorum, Perry, and Newt. Romney's numbers haven't changed, but every other candidate has risen and fallen dramatically. The Republicans want to believe in someone that is not Romney. They want their vote to get behind someone with novel ideas and integrity.

So, as long as Paul lets Santorum and Perry and Newt stay in the race, his numbers will continue to be marginalized. The majority of those votes as candidates drop out are going to be split between all the Non-Romney candidates.

Therefore, Paul should be focusing on eliminating competitors and positioning himself as the anti-Romney that can actually beat Obama in the general election.

reply to post by getreadyalready


Not necessarily. Yea i can see the older crowd seeing it that way but this is a new election year. If the campaign was smart, they would release a mission statement to the students who support Paul. have the campaign send e-mails to the Florida volunteers and student voters. Just ask them to forward the message to all their peers and ask them to follow some simple rules of respecting others property. Let them know what happened in 08 hurt the Paul campaign. Ask them to lead by example and not be goofballs about it.

People don't listen though... but at least the message is there and they can learn from their mistakes in 08.

This campaign is run by experienced professionals, Doug Wead being one, I'm sure they want to go at every state but they have to look at the big picture.

From what I understand, they want to spread out their funds to states that they know Ron will be doing very well in.


Ron hurts in Florida because of the dominant senior base and we all know most seniors aren't into alternative news. They still all think Ron is an isolationist and wants to end SS immediately.


I don't blame them for making the tough decisions needed to march forward and win.

You are right Florida is a huge prize and the first three states are small potatoes. Well that would be the case for someone who was in the lead or even had a large national following. Paul put his biggest efforts into Iowa and now NH just to stay in the race. If he had not spent so much already he most likely would be Bachman and dropping out. I think the guy has seen the peak of his campaign and from here on in its all down hill from here. Besides Gov Scott is so unpopular the Republicans do not stand a chance in Florida.

reply to post by eLPresidente


Again, I highly disagree.

Herman Cain won the Straw Poll here. That indicates a desire for something different and more radical than the normal GOP platform.

The Tea Party dominated Florida in 2010 with the likes of Marco Rubio, Steve Southerland, and Governor Rick Scott. That indicates a desire for something radically different and the power the Tea Party has here.

For the first time in several decades the population of most Florida counties has either fallen or remained steady, and our unemployment rate has remained staganantly high. This all indicates that today's Florida is not the same Florida the strategists are expecting.

The GOP in Florida is in somewhat of a state of flux, evidenced first and foremost by the moving of our Primary election up to January and taking our lumps on from the National Committee for doing so. More evidence that Florida may not be the same old GOP pawn people are expecting.

Election laws have changed in Florida, with much fanfare and cries from the left that it is unfair, yet it was done anyway. A huge Increase in Floridians changing party has happened as of late. More evidence that voters in Florida want to be heard!

Floridian GOPers pushing for easing Florida's strict drug laws.

Republican Party of Florida on their own website seems to be mirroring the concerns of a lot of the Conservatives and Libertarians! In a State that Obama carried in 2008, where Charlie Crist moved to the middle and saw a total collapse of his popularity, and where the Tea Party basically swept the elections in 2010, it seems like a huge mistake to concede the state to the good ol' boy system of the GOP.

reply to post by MrSpad

Besides Gov Scott is so unpopular the Republicans do not stand a chance in Florida.

I disagree. I know Gov. Scott is polling poorly, and apparently he has decided to shift his policies more toward the middle as this new legislative session opens up, but that is exactly what Charlie Crist did, and Crist was defeated soundly for his efforts!

I work in the State Government, and Scott's most vocal opponents were in State Government, yet he still won the election. He cut a lot of state jobs, and yet he is still popular even here in the Capital.

In my opinion, the worst thing politicians do, is to flip-flop, follow the polls, align themselves for popularity, and ignore their own basic principles and integrity. I'll never vote for a politician that shifts his/her views to match the current polling data. I'd rather vote for someone I entirely disagree with than to vote for someone that will go out of their way to agree with me.

I would have voted for a 2nd term for Gov. Scott, even as a State employee, but if 2012 goes the way it seems to be going, he will have lost my support. He will lose my support if he shifts his basic principles to get a bump in the polling data.

And, for the record, I have never seen a poll be correct yet! It is a bad idea to run a state, or run a country based on the opinions of 700 respondents who answered a call from a stranger and took the time to answer 5 or 10 or 15 minutes worth of questions regarding politics. People that would participate in a phone poll are not the average people going into voting booths, because the rest of us are too busy for that BS, so the poll data is doomed from the start.

reply to post by getreadyalready


Paul is setting himself up for failiure if he thinks he can just minimize focus Florida like this. This will be a core state and possibly the deal breaker not just in the primaries but also the elections. If Paul doesn't come atleast second in the Florida Primary race, in my opinion he's out of the race. In the 2008 Republican Primaries John McCain won this State. As I recall, Bush won the 2000 Florida Primaries as well, as did Reagan in 1980. Winning Florida is crucial if you intend to become the Republican nominee, coming a close second will just keep you of relevance in the primaries. If Paul's campaign has really chosen to ignore Florida then they are obviously not all that serious about their prospects of winning the nomination.

reply to post by Southern Guardian


Yes. Exactly.

If Paul concedes Florida, it sends the message that he doesn't really expect to win the nomination. It will hurt his chances in the following primaries, and by the time Super Tuesday rolls around, Paul will just be another asterisk on history.

I'm glad someone can finally see the significance, even if it is someone that disagrees with me 90% of the time.

I have to wonder if the Paul supporters really are this blind? The idea that Paul can do nothing wrong, and every decision is a good decision is baffling me. I love him as a candidate, and I think his policies are the perfect fit for the current situation of the nation. He is not a perfect man, and I disagee with some of his stances, like his stance on the National Parks system, but I still support him, yet I can still see a blatant mistake when it happens. Not a single Paul supporter in this thread has admitted how serious of a strategic error this could be.

I've been discussing this same issue in real life with many people today, and most of them are in agreeance that this is a huge blunder, yet here on ATS the blind support is on-going?

I still support Paul as a candidate, and I won't be voting for Romney or Newt or Santorum ever. Not now, not in November. So, if Paul and his blind supporters derail his campaign, who does that leave for us true Conservatives to vote for? Gary Johnson? Write-In? Or will we just stay home and watch Obama be re-elected?

Don't get me wrong I want him in every state.

I trust his advisers are making the right decisions and if they're the wrong decisions, they'll have to learn from those mistakes.

We don't know how they came to this conclusion, whether it be their internal polling shows they can't compete or if their investment in Florida won't yield best effect per dollar for the national campaign.

Just looking at a recent Florida poll, Ron is at 10% (5% in another), worse than his current national figures. Romney is leading in high 20's and into the 30's. In my opinion, if Ron gets a strong showing in NH that boosted his numbers in FL they would be re-considering the strategy.




Also, you made a great point about Cain winning the straw poll, which was a big deal. Many Cain supporters are potential Ron Paul supporters but Cain will be making an endorsement in South Carolina and we all know how he feels about Ron Paul. If he didn't make an endorsement I guess I could imagine a possible game-changer for Paul in Florida but it won't help him that much...

Originally posted by getreadyalready
I have to wonder if the Paul supporters really are this blind? The idea that Paul can do nothing wrong, and every decision is a good decision is baffling me. I love him as a candidate, and I think his policies are the perfect fit for the current situation of the nation. He is not a perfect man, and I disagee with some of his stances, like his stance on the National Parks system, but I still support him, yet I can still see a blatant mistake when it happens. Not a single Paul supporter in this thread has admitted how serious of a strategic error this could be.

Many Paul supporters cannot seem to grasp real world rules. This isn't merely the internet we're talking about here where Paul reigns supreme on all the online elections and polls. He's got real challanges ahead of him, his still got many undecideds outside the internet to convince. I don't think Ron Paul supporters want to understand that Paul's ideas are still within the minority of the GOP, most conservatives voters in the GOP still disagree with him, many are still skeptical of his positions. Whenever you bring this reality up, you're marked by Paul supporters as some disinformationist, and this isn't helping Paul's campaign at all. You cannot remain in denial for so long, Paul is not top of the roost, not outside the internet, he and his supporters need to buckle down and actually respond to the questions still looming around Paul's prospects for the nomination, not just brush it off or make excuses.

Paul did really good in the Iowa caucus, he virtually tied with the other 2 candidates, the GOP primaries became a three way race. Yet the momentum Paul gained from Iowa seems to have been wasted by stubborness and arrogance. This is my opinion. You could say the Obama and McCain campaigns and many of their supporters were the same by mid 2008, but atleast they held clear leads by then, Paul clearly isn't in the same position now.

I've been discussing this same issue in real life with many people today, and most of them are in agreeance that this is a huge blunder, yet here on ATS the blind support is on-going?

I still support Paul as a candidate, and I won't be voting for Romney or Newt or Santorum ever.

If Paul runs third party (which he has denied, but 'if'), will you vote for him?

reply to post by Southern Guardian


Yea, speaking of the real world.

In the REAL world, there is zero evidence, nada, that Ron Paul is a racist but you still 'know' that he is.


So I wouldn't be criticizing others who are or aren't being 'real' if I were you.

reply to post by eLPresidente


Cain said his endorsement will be unconventional. To me, that means it won't be Perry, Romney, or Newt.

SO...... it could be Paul?

That would be a nice little boost!

I have a feeling when Cain says "unconventional" he is talking in the extreme sense. He will endorse "nobody!," or the Supreme with Xtra Cheese, or Sarah Palin who hasn't even put her name in the hat.

reply to post by getreadyalready


If Cain's 'unconventional' endorsement is Ron Paul, I would have EVEN LESS respect for Cain after what he said about Paul on several occasions (Piers Morgan Tonight, being one of them). I'm think Cain is going to endorse Perry because if he was going to endorse Ron Paul as his 'unconventional' endorsement, it would've already happened, not in South Carolina.


But yes, I'll take that endorsement, happily.

Remember a while back (I think it was CPAC), Bachmann was on stage speaking VERY HIGHLY of Ron Paul, she seemed like his fan but it all changed during the election.

At least we know where Ron stands on everything in or out of elections.

reply to post by Southern Guardian

If Paul runs third party (which he has denied, but 'if'), will you vote for him?

Absent any other viable candidate, I will vote for Paul as the Republican Nominee, or as a 3rd Party Candidate, or as a Write-In candidate.

If the next few weeks show me that he doesn't take his own campaign seriously, and it becomes some sort of circus, then I will throw my support to possibly Gary Johnson, or I might just write-in the name of my Dad!

Under no circumstance will my support, as a registered GOPer for over a decade, go to Romney, Newt, Perry, or Santorum. (Are you listening GOP? This is the sentiment of a large part of your base, pay attention!)

Huntsman still has an outside chance of winning my support.

In all likelihood, by the time November rolls around, I will be so disenfranchised with the whole fiasco of big politics and faux choices that I will decide to just get drunk instead of voting at all. I'll probably regret that at some point during the coverage of the day, and rush out at the last minute to vote, and write-in my own name!

It won't be any of the pretty boy candidates running in the MSM popularity pageant, that much I am sure of.