New Activity at Mt. Rainier Confirmed to Be Seismic (...or ICE?), Right here on ATS!

reply to post by Olivine


Yes, I noticed that too. At first I tried to count the time in between the BIG and the SMALL events. They were too small and too many though, so I just did the big ones. I noticed the past day - the small are definitely bigger, making to harder to distinguish them from the larger events. The smaller ones also seem to happen whithin a couple of minutes of the big one......what I call a 'double-tap'. What this means to me, is that these are all related, or being caused by the same mechinism. Now, there are also regular ice quakes and what look like avalanches or slides mixed in there.

I am going to try and think outside the box about this. Perhaps there is something else to consider.....

Well, not much has changed. The multiplet earthquakes have continued on, every 20-21 minutes. This activity began late on 28th of December 2011, so we have just concluded the 12th day of repeating earthquakes. The swarm in May-June 2010 lasted 3 weeks.

Anybody else have ideas about what could be causing this? I'm still not sold on the glaciers.

Originally posted by Olivine
Anybody else have ideas about what could be causing this? I'm still not sold on the glaciers.

Well first, I appreciate the great discussion going on here, and thanks for all the blog links you posted. It really helps to know what the pros are thinking about this, and considering their best guess is glacier movement, I guess that's the theory to contest.

I notice their spectrum analysis doesn't seem to show the highs that puterman's spectro did, and there was a comment made to that effect- that the lack of highs would indicate it's not seismic. We should figure out why.

If this were magma causing this, then it would seem there would be additional uplift recorded, although I suppose it's possible that the magma chamber could be expanding horizontally instead of vertically.

Ok, I got an idea: Invent a giant hair dryer and hang it over the mountain to melt the ice cap entirely. We'll figure out if this is seismic, haha. (Flood Warning).

Well.....I give myself a headache when I think about this too much.

Only thing I can comment on right now, is that another reason to contest the glacier 'sring thaw' or 'melt off' theory is how un-regular the events are. The known events occured in 1990, 1998, 2010 and 2011. So first off, it woubl obviously happen every year if it were seasonal. (actually, I would think it would be happening all the time, since glaciers are always moving to some extent..hence the known ice-quake sigs)....secondly and I think most important: Time span. The time between the events. Eight years, two years, one year. What does it mean? Heck if I know, but I feel like it means something.

What would we think if the eruption periods of Old Faithful sped up???

Originally posted by westcoast
The time between the events. Eight years, two years, one year. What does it mean? Heck if I know, but I feel like it means something.

Well that's an important observation. And I agree, if it was the glacier, then why hasn't it been doing this every year without fail?

Those lessening time periods themselves between the swarm events is noteworthy. It's not enough data to draw hard conclusions on, but sure does make you wonder.

One thing I have been thinking though is the amount of movement restriction that ice cap must be placing on the volcano. The volcano can't breathe too good, or vibrate in full with a massive icecap on it. Amazing they can sense anything at all with all that ice on top of it. But at the very least, the ice is obscuring readings, and frustrating the crap out of the analysts!

So I compared todays graph from the older style PNSN webis from when this whole thing began in December. Wow. Leaves no question as to how this event has progressed:

December 30th


January 9th

source (even more impressive full-size)

As you can see, the smaller, scattered events on the 30th are now dwarfed by the larger, cyclic events happening now. The smaller events are still there....just almost drowned out by the bigger ones. I think it has changed in a big way....

ETA: bring back memories????? SEISMO OF SAINT HELENS day before eruption

reply to post by westcoast


Wow, that is a bit scary. This is probably the worlds biggest firecracker, I hope it calms down.
Any reports of animals acting peculiar? They are reliable predictors of geologic turmoil.

Good luck out there and keep up the great work of keeping everyone informed.

Originally posted by Olivine
reply to post by westcoast

 

I dunno either...but it great fun trying to figure it out.

Mr. Vidale has posted an update on the activity. Mount Rainier popping away

He writes:

This yammering has been non-stop for several days, and can actually interfere with monitoring the seismic network, as events are frequently triggering the earthquake detection software, filling the queue to process, and fraying the nerves of our analysts.

"Yammering" ,that makes me giggle.

I particularly like the last line in the blog:

Not to mention vexing those of us who are never really sure we understand our observations as well as we think we do.

And this, a response to a posters question:

Now that I have my laptop, here's more detail. There are geothermal events at volcanoes, which can be difficult to discriminate from ice quakes. The ice quakes are by necessity shallow, where the ice is, but so can hydrothermal events be shallow, and depth is hard to constrain. Even plain earthquakes can repeat at regular intervals, as magma plugs push out or faults stick and slip.

Geothermal activity can indicate influx of heat, perhaps from magma. Volcanoes make various and meaningful noises.

source

reply to post by Olivine


Looks like labour pains...

reply to post by Jerisa

I hope not. We don't want to see the mountain give birth to anything!


I just found a most informative page concerning a previous earthquake swarm on Mt. Rainier, 20-28 September 2009. Mount Rainier Swarm Report

This 2009 swarm began with a Mag 2.3 earthquake, which is different from this current swarm. But it did have over 700 repeating quakes of one variety in the first days, and then over 80 repeating quakes of a second flavor later in the swarm.
There are many good maps--just follow the links.

I found the following quotes interesting:

The vast majority of volcanic swarms are not associated with eruptive activity. Rainier itself has had several such swarms: in the past 7 years there have been similar days-long swarms in 2002, 2004, and 2007, two of which (2002 and 2004 )included M 3.2 earthquakes.

From the Executive Summary.

Most events, including those in this swarm have occurred at a depth near sea level. Hydrothermal fluids
circulating above a zone of partially melted rock are most likely the cause of the seismicity near this depth.

This is found describing the Conceptual Model of Mt Rainier link.

Most, if not all of the background activity consists of earthquakes associated with the movement of glaciers

This quote is found under the event rate plot.

Oh yeah, it looks like the interval between quakes in the current swarm is lengthening to 22-23 minutes. The non-repeating earthquakes showing up on STAR seem to be getting a tad larger. And PNSN recent quakes has a bunch of tiny quakes listed from the past few days, but only 2 in close proximity to Mt. Rainier.
Here is a picture of one of them from 19:09:26 UTC on 9 Jan 2012, depth 4.7km. (16.4km from STAR seismo)


Why do you suppose they listed this quake, but none of the others on this page?

Originally posted by westcoast
I particularly like the last line in the blog:

Not to mention vexing those of us who are never really sure we understand our observations as well as we think we do.

And this, a response to a posters question:

I enjoyed the last line too. I like his humility.
..and, umm, that poster was me.

ETA: westcoast (and all other Rainier trackers), do you think the swarm info I linked in the above post is relavent to the current swarm? It just seems to differ so much in it's stated cause (magma or warmed country rock from magma below), versus the current swarm, where PNSN & UW seem to favor the glacial cause.

And if this 2009 info was discussed in 2009, I apologize. I admit to not searching ATS

reply to post by Olivine


I only have a minute but want to comment real quick on your question:

Off the top, I would say the main reason for their differing causes here is the depth. The earlier official quake swarm had depths at or near sea-level (I am assuming they were larger also) while the current ones are very, very shallow.

NOW...what if that just indicates a progression???? That theory would work, I think.....

Okay guys...things have most definitely changed. These events are now being picked up on siesmos miles away. I hadn't checked the further out 'ring' for a couple of days. Not only are they being picked up on seismos OFF the mountain, but there was something quite large near packwood just minutes ago....perhaps a slide???

Check out these stations....the links will only work for a little while, so once they expire go the main link provided at the end and select the stations. The 12/6 hr picture shows it the best:

OBSR NW corner of the mountain


FMW Far Northern edge of the mountain

PSNH Eastern edge

RVCX Far West - I don't even think this is on the mountain

LO2 Southern edge near base

WPW SE of the Mountain near the freeway Is that an avalanche?

GLK this station is South of Packwood...across the freeway and into other hills. You can see a few of the events and whatever that slide is

source


What this tells me is that it really isn't our imaginations. These have gotten bigger and are being detected further away.

reply to post by westcoast


So what does this mean? Is she going to blow soon or ? I don't want to sound like an idiot, but its quite hard to keep up with the "lingo" And really awesome work you guys do

reply to post by westcoast


Nice work posting those links, westcoast. I had noticed this morning that the multiplet quakes were just barely showing on the old webicorders for Fremont--but I didn't post the picture because they were underwelming. I hadn't even thought to look on the new webi's.

I don't know where that big blob originiated. I saw it (well I saw something, but it wasn't as long-lived, as in your links) in GEE--it was largest on RCS, with an amplitude of +/-8 microns/sec.

I wish UW/PNSN would list any of these "events" that they can pin the depth down on.

ETA: Cyanhide, I can't speak for westcoast's thoughts, but to me, it means the activity is growing more vigorous. Something to keep watching for sure.

reply to post by westcoast


Those links were working for me earlier and now they are down. I am worried about the potential reasons behind that.

Edit: might just be the links broke.

Originally posted by Cyanhide
reply to post by westcoast

 

So what does this mean? Is she going to blow soon or ? I don't want to sound like an idiot, but its quite hard to keep up with the "lingo"

And really awesome work you guys do

No, I'm not saying that it's about to blow, only that whatever this is, it is getting more substantial. Also, it casts more doubt (in my eyes) that this is coming from a glacier.

I AM saying that this is new activity and any change on that monster is worth watching and COULD be an indicator of something forthcoming.
(ETA: You don't sound at all like an idiot!!! It's a very legitimate question. )

@MKOLL...those links only last for a few hours, unfortunately. I just didn't have time to go through copying/editing/uploading and pasting screen-shots. If you go to the source link at the bottom and then slect the stations from the list on the right, you can see the current conditions.

This is the STAR seismo, and it is a little further away then the other ones you posted.

And it looks very similar to the others

pele.ess.washington.edu:16017...

When Mount St. Helens became active again in 2004 I remember hearing on the news that scientists were blaming the EQ swarm on excessive rain fall within the crater. They were implying that the in-rush of water was causing the meters to react. We all know what happened after that. The new water in the crater began to burst out in steam plumes because it was in contact with rising magma.

2004 to 2008 volcanic activity of Mount St. Helens

Maybe the glaciers are moving because magma is working its way up to the volcano's peak.

reply to post by radpetey

The STAR seismo is right on top...on the South side of the dome. I didn't include it in my recent post because it is one of the main three we have been referencing and linking from the start. The ones I just listed are actually further out and had NOT been showing activity before.

The action on STAR is very pronounced, but the best one is RCS.

@lostinspace: I think your suggestion is quite possible. Definitely one of the things on the list.