Quake Watch 2012

Woke up this morning with a strange feeling that Japan is about to experience a 7+ mag quake within the next 14 days!

Can't think of any reason why this feeling suddenly developed, but it might be because things have been relatively quiet their for some time, and they're now due for something large to take place.

BTW, I've always believed since April (Sumatra 8.6 and 8.2) that this November will be the month for the next major or mega event(s) to take place, if there was to be any more this year.

As always I hope I'm wrong...

Santa Ana, Costa Rica - Long, rolling earthquake. It seemed to last a long time. Mal Pais - Very loud noise like thunder then shaking for about 20 seconds. Ran outside and ground was rippling. St. Teresa, Costa Rica - Woah!

Hopefully nothing bigger in Japan either Spacejockey... do hope you are wrong.

Probably be a little bit before we know more in regards to the Costa Rica Quake.

Praying everyone is ok and nothing bigger is on the horizon!

earthquake-report.com...

Another one: 4.5 earthquake, 9km W of Hojancha, Costa Rica. Oct 23 19:55 at epicenter (depth 11km

2012-10-24 01:55:27 UTC
2012-10-23 19:55:27 UTC-06:00 at epicenter
2012-10-23 21:55:27 UTC-04:00 system time
Location
10.049°N 85.500°W depth=11.1km (6.9mi)

Nearby Cities
9km (6mi) W of Hojancha, Costa Rica
12km (7mi) SSW of Nicoya, Costa Rica
25km (16mi) SSE of Santa Cruz, Costa Rica
61km (38mi) SW of Canas, Costa Rica
155km (96mi) W of San Jose, Costa Rica

I don't know if I mentioned this, and I don't suppose for one minute that anyone noticed, but I have been incorporating the celestial data for each Mag 6+, which was on a separate blog, on the same page as the earthquake details (with which I am woefully behind and have a lot of catching up to do).

The celestial data takes a little longer to assemble so whist the apogee/perigee and conjunctions and various index images will be there straight away the rest takes a little longer.

The reason I mention this is because I am hoping - and I can make no promises as again it is a lot 'o time - to include a spectrogram and a sound file for each Mag 6+

Here is the first sample:

Magnitude 6.5 Costa Rica 24-Oct-12 (b000dc6x)

The sound files will be .flac files mainly because you cannot produce an MP3 file under 8000Hz with Audacity (I don't know if you normally can) and a .flac file is more universal than a .WAV file. .flac file can be played with WinAmp (free) if your normal player does not play them and the download link for that is on the page.


@spacejockey

BTW, I've always believed since April (Sumatra 8.6 and 8.2) that this November will be the month for the next major or mega event(s) to take place, if there was to be any more this year.

Mega-quake, no I don't believe so if we are talking the accepted Mag 8.5+ as a mega-quake. I do think we will have 2 or possible 3 more Mag 7+ before the end of the year, mainly because I insist that it gets somewhere my predictions.

On the mag 7 Japan you may be right, I only most sincerely and utterly hope it is not off Fukushima or with the state of Pool 4 we will probably all be Fukushimad.

Tell me though spacejockey, do you always get these feelings of pending doom towards the end of the year?

Here is what you said last year - which did not come to pass so maybe we have a chance this year of escaping your predictions??

reply to post by Doodle19815


Yes it has happened 3 times before that I have been following and this is number four. L waves spanned the planet on this 6.6 again. I wonder why station 53046 is dead now apparently? This station is where all the adjustment to the seafloor has been going on! 3 min news. Here I was waiting for the Alaska event to happen. 23-10-2012 @ 06:16 AM last post
I am following the theory of Theunitedknowledge a YT sub. October 15th upload date.
Yesterday he posted a buoy event in the Alaskas on his YT feed and sure enough,I checked and rest is as he predicated..
23-10-2012 @ 06:47 AM
Seafloor adjustment different YouTuber.
October 16th. later October 16th.
last month............Different observer.
Seafloor adjustment
August 29th
August 31 7.6 MAG Philippines. Right between the buoys.
5 days later, Sept 5th Alaska buoy event Station 46403 2 hours before
a 7.5 Costa Rica, last month.Source Thread.

Now the buoy 53046 has no data and previous events are not in the database!! WTF! Check the three buoys right now in event mode. Step one is starting again!(Buoys 23227-56001-55012) There is no way those three buoys are giving false data. Again! Real interesting. The buoy that is adjacent to 53046 is active again.More seafloor adjustment!

reply to post by PuterMan


Maybe while your working on your cosmic quake correlations, you should add big low pressure systems affecting tectonic plate movement. Hurricane Sandy is right over this area at the moment!

This 5.4 is on a fault that could raise some serious hell if it was inclined to do so

earthquake.usgs.gov...


www.wunderground.com...

reply to post by radpetey


You tooka the wordsa right outta my mouth. I checked and the tropical storm is right near epicenter. The report I posted the other day was trying to link the rain and earthquakes. I think weight shifting by storm surges, and the pressure change itself, "lubes-up" and triggers faults.

But. Who knows? Because as a whole, Central and the North tip of South America have been (i think) more active lately.

Originally posted by ericblair4891
reply to post by radpetey

 

You tooka the wordsa right outta my mouth. I checked and the tropical storm is right near epicenter. The report I posted the other day was trying to link the rain and earthquakes. I think weight shifting by storm surges, and the pressure change itself, "lubes-up" and triggers faults.

But. Who knows? Because as a whole, Central and the North tip of South America have been (i think) more active lately.

edit on 24-10-2012 by ericblair4891 because: (no reason given)

I agree that the whole area in general if your including the virgin islands area has been active lately. Not sure about that storm thou causing that eq as it looks to be a few hundred miles to the east of the storm. Ofcourse though i have no idea

reply to post by Mister1k


OK, you have (yet another) thread on the (supposed) plate break up. Define precisely which part is breaking from which please, preferably with a properly marked up diagram, because all the BS I have seen before now is talking about a boundary that already exists. The so called Indo-Australian plate is two plates the Australian plate and the Indian plate, as I have pointed out in this thread before.

By the way those are data glitches and they frequently happen, and very often on Australian buoys.

I wonder why station 53046 is dead now apparently? This station is where all the adjustment to the seafloor has been going on!

Maybe perhaps that could be dead because it was going wrong and giving erroneous readings and then failed? Possibility?

The trouble with the people who put up these YT videos about this is that they have little knowledge of what they are talking about and no desire to get any. If they studied geophysics even a little bit I believe they would realise that what they are saying is a complete impossibility without other effects that most certainly would be noticed by a great number of people.

reply to post by radpetey


Indeed yes. I am personally convinced that this does have an effect but I will have to work out how I will get hold of data that I can use.

reply to post by PuterMan


Will be interested how you collect that data lol

Thanks

reply to post by lurksoften


I may already have it, but I need to check what I have got. The problem as I see it is that most of the charts I collect daily are every 6 hours and mainly Altantic, although I do have hourly satellite images covering a good bit of the world. I also collected all varieties of the Jet Stream charts, but only once a month. I may have to collect them daily instead.

ETA: Links to
Most of what I collect can be found on a very under used blog of mine.



Trolling around the internet (meaning wandering not being a troll) I came across this Japan Met office chart which is showing a 986 depression heading straight for Kamchatka and the area forcast by Dr Choi for a Mag 8.

reply to post by Mister1k


I believe this theory is plausible. It's not that far fetched after all plates move and must compensate somewhere else. I think it was labeled wrong. Plate Breakup? No that plate has been separate forever but it could be making large movements which it seems may be the case.

How many more times will this scenario have to happen for it to be taken seriously. I have family in Costa Rica and I will keep watching it to see if it plays out or not. My family in Costa Rica seems to believe there IS a big one coming. I don't know if it's chatter or information released by their experts or government. They should be prepared.

reply to post by favouriteslave

How many more times will this scenario have to happen for it to be taken seriously.

Are you talking about the plates or the buoys?

If it is the buoys, they are glitches as I said.

Originally posted by PuterMan

 

@spacejockey

BTW, I've always believed since April (Sumatra 8.6 and 8.2) that this November will be the month for the next major or mega event(s) to take place, if there was to be any more this year.

Mega-quake, no I don't believe so if we are talking the accepted Mag 8.5+ as a mega-quake. I do think we will have 2 or possible 3 more Mag 7+ before the end of the year, mainly because I insist that it gets somewhere my predictions.

On the mag 7 Japan you may be right, I only most sincerely and utterly hope it is not off Fukushima or with the state of Pool 4 we will probably all be Fukushimad.

Tell me though spacejockey, do you always get these feelings of pending doom towards the end of the year?

Here is what you said last year - which did not come to pass so maybe we have a chance this year of escaping your predictions??

Ahhh, good recall there for an ole fella PM !

I'm with you Fuku#ma...would be the last thing needed there right now.

Yeh, I do tend to get 'edgy' towards the end of the year, and this year more so with it being 2012 and all

The good news is I was wrong towards the end of last year, so hopefully another run-out for a DUCK this year too! Maybe if I 'predict' it, there's less chance of something happening.

Originally posted by PuterMan
reply to post by favouriteslave

 

How many more times will this scenario have to happen for it to be taken seriously.

Are you talking about the plates or the buoys?

If it is the buoys, they are glitches as I said.

No not the buoys, just simple plate movements and transfer of pressure from one side of the Pacific to the other.

reply to post by favouriteslave


Thanks for clarifying, I was not sure which you were meaning.

Of course plate movements are always going on and I think it would be fair to the scientific community to say that they do take it seriously. On the other hand every theory that comes about is not always right and the paper referred to in the original post I believe falls in that category, much like Hawaiian tsunami 105 million years ago eroding the Australian coastline based on the very flimsy evidence of a stretch about 400 metres wide.

These things get postulated and unless they are particularly contentious, or possible, are quickly forgotten.

The movement of plates is so far outside our small time span, both as individuals and as knowledgeable communities, that it will probably be millennia before anyone can categorically say what is happening on our planet. Theories of continental 'bumper cars' are just that, theories.

Earthquake research is taken seriously, very seriously, and of course the ultimate goal is to be able to make accurate predictions of impending earthquakes but the forces at play in that scenario are so huge, so complex, and for the most part so unseen that I wonder if we can really ever come up with a working solution.

In the mean time perhaps we depend on spacejockey making predictions so that nothing will happen

Sorry, hate to interrupt you scientists with my novice questions. But is it strange that most of the quakes in North America have been very shallow lately? Is there any particular reason or theory for this?
By the way been reading this thread for a while you guys are awesome.

Some disagreement between catalogues here, but the net result is the same. I am thinking that whilst the Gulf of California one on the 8th will probably not be increased back up again on the USGS site, the Loyalty Islands one on the 23rd probably will (around the 8th day ? ) be reduced to 5.9 giving a reduction ON THE SITE of 1.

USGS > Date/Time UTC,Latitude,Longitude,Magnitude,Depth(Km),Location
ANSS > Date,Time,Lat,Lon,Depth,Mag,Magt
---------------------------------------------------------------
USGS 2012-10-24 00:45:34, 10.121, -85.313, 6.5, 20.1, Costa Rica
ANSS 2012/10/24,00:45:34.20, 10.1210, -85.3140, 20.10, 6.50, Mw

USGS 2012-10-23 09:39:31, -22.316, 171.675, 6.0, 127.0, S.East Of The Loyalty Isls.
This is 5.9 in the ANSS catalogue as per the Global Centroid Tensor

USGS 2012-10-20 23:00:32, -13.564, 166.600, 6.2, 35.6, Vanuatu
ANSS 2012/10/20,23:00:32.59, -13.5490, 166.5660, 36.00, 6.20, Mw

USGS 2012-10-17 04:42:31, 4.190, 124.573, 6.0, 337.4, Celebes Sea
ANSS 2012/10/17 04:42:31.29, 4.1910, 124.5730, 337.40, 6.10, Mw

USGS 2012-10-12 00:31:30, -4.893, 134.027, 6.6, 13.0, Nr. S. Coast Of Papua. Ind.
ANSS 2012/10/12,00:31:28.26, -4.8930, 134.0270, 13.00, 6.60, Mw

USGS 2012-10-09 12:32:04, -61.033, 153.959, 6.6, 10.2, Balleny Isls. Region
ANSS 2012/10/09,12:32:04.35, -61.0330, 153.9600, 10.20, 6.60, Mw

USGS 2012-10-08 11:43:35, -4.442, 129.165, 6.3, 34.7, Banda Sea
ANSS 2012/10/08,11:43:35.42, -4.4420, 129.1650, 34.70, 6.20, Mw

ANSS 2012/10/08,06:26:22.28, 25.1250, -109.6980, 9.90, 6.00, Mw
This is 5.9 on the USGS web (reduced from 6.0)
The Global CMT project says 6.0 so ??

USGS 2012-10-01 22:21:45, 39.852, 143.046, 6.1, 9.7, Off E. Coast Of Honshu. Japan
ANSS 2012/10/01,22:21:46.02, 39.8080, 143.0990, 15.00, 6.10, Mw

Data obtained from the USGS web site and ANSS

Originally posted by FreebirdGirl
Sorry, hate to interrupt you scientists with my novice questions. But is it strange that most of the quakes in North America have been very shallow lately? Is there any particular reason or theory for this?
By the way been reading this thread for a while you guys are awesome.

Scientists? Very kind of you dear FreebirdGirl but no, enthusiastic amateurs (and anyway scientists are men in white coats making guesses )

Generally speaking the area of North America most likely to get deeper earthquakes is the Cascadia region, and even here they are not that common. There can be some deep quakes in the area of New Madrid which are attributed to the deep sinking section of the ancient Farallon plate, but generally quakes in North America tend to be shallower rather than deeper.

I should qualify that perhaps:

Earthquakes can occur anywhere between the Earth's surface and about 700 kilometers below the surface. For scientific purposes, this earthquake depth range of 0 - 700 km is divided into three zones: shallow, intermediate, and deep. Shallow earthquakes are between 0 and 70 km deep; intermediate earthquakes, 70 - 300 km deep; and deep earthquakes, 300 - 700 km deep. In general, the term "deep-focus earthquakes" is applied to earthquakes deeper than 70 km. All earthquakes deeper than 70 km are localized within great slabs of shallow lithosphere that are sinking into the Earth's mantle.

Source

This should be tempered with another definition that is I think more in keeping with what non-scientists would perhaps consider shallow,

An earthquake whose focus is located within 70 kilometers of the earth’s surface. Earthquake-report.com differs from the official notification calling earthquakes with a depth up to 40 km as “Shallow”. This is mainly because of the possible damaging impact of these earthquakes. (Sci-Tech)

Source

And then again most people are probably referring to earthquakes in say 5 to 10 kilometres depth as shallow. In the last 30 days, taking as an example earthquakes with the name California in the location, the deepest was 44km (Baja California) and the shallowest 0km (probably poorly constrained)

The average depth over that period is 6.96 km. So just to check I averaged the depths over a 365 day period and guess what? It was also 6.96 km!

The exact figures are

6.963665944 (30 days)
6.966563895 (365 days)

So, at least over a one year period it would appear that the average depth has changed insignificantly so it would be fair to say that over that time they have not been getting shallower in California at least.

Looking at North America as a whole within the boundaries 20°N to 50°N and 120°W to 65°W for a period of 1000 days (back to 29 Jan 2010) there are 59000+ quakes in my database and the average depth is 7.53 km. Taking the last 30 days only over that same geographical area the average depth is 8.277 km so would it be right to say actually on average earthquake depths in North America are increasing. No, it would not. I think the honest answer is that in general in North America earthquake depths on average are pretty much what they normally are.