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Quake Watch 2012
page: 155share:
reply to post by JohnVidale
I saw your 1995 paper on W phase applications, and also came across this:
www.geofisica.unam.mx...
The use of GPS to calculate Mw and warn for tsunamis through real time ground deformation monitoring. Thought that was pretty cool. Still best to have RT OBS's on the fault, imo. Can't imagine anything being faster than that for a data feed close to source. Do you have any idea how the Japanese put out those reports so fast? And changes from initial reports seem to be rare.
I saw your 1995 paper on W phase applications, and also came across this:
www.geofisica.unam.mx...
The use of GPS to calculate Mw and warn for tsunamis through real time ground deformation monitoring. Thought that was pretty cool. Still best to have RT OBS's on the fault, imo. Can't imagine anything being faster than that for a data feed close to source. Do you have any idea how the Japanese put out those reports so fast? And changes from initial reports seem to be rare.
reply to post by muzzy
Yes, NOAA makes their own magnitudes. They do it because no one else is as reliably fast. So their magnitudes are done in the first few minutes, while only California can work with comparable speed among the various US regions.
Yes, NOAA makes their own magnitudes. They do it because no one else is as reliably fast. So their magnitudes are done in the first few minutes, while only California can work with comparable speed among the various US regions.
reply to post by TrueAmerican
Real time ocean bottom seismometers are VERY expensive. Japan has some, Canada has a couple, but generally we need to rely on land stations. We're starting to work on integrating GPS, but it will take a while. Japan just has a powerful earthquake detection and magnitude estimation system - it cost a fortune.
Real time ocean bottom seismometers are VERY expensive. Japan has some, Canada has a couple, but generally we need to rely on land stations. We're starting to work on integrating GPS, but it will take a while. Japan just has a powerful earthquake detection and magnitude estimation system - it cost a fortune.
reply to post by JohnVidale
i can help with this one,,
Canada has a couple,
were are not reporting,,ANYTHING,,,apparently too,,well there is the official CANADA FEDERAL web site i guess,,
but USGS,,never seen it,,
sorry,,
ohhh total cost,,flip a switch,,,total jobs lost,,
anyone,, u know there are Fed cut backs,,,Scientist's Getting pretty fed up as well,,just do a search,,
harper scientist ,,they try,, but
i can help with this one,,
Canada has a couple,
were are not reporting,,ANYTHING,,,apparently too,,well there is the official CANADA FEDERAL web site i guess,,
but USGS,,never seen it,,
sorry,,
ohhh total cost,,flip a switch,,,total jobs lost,,
anyone,, u know there are Fed cut backs,,,Scientist's Getting pretty fed up as well,,just do a search,,
harper scientist ,,they try,, but
edit on 6-6-2012 by BobAthome because: (no reason given)
reply to post by JohnVidale
Yet Japan is not the greatest nation on the Earth. If the greatest nation on the Earth was to spend less feeding it's war machine it too could have a sophisticated detection system.
I would not mind betting that the Japanese system cost less than one of those $2 billion bombers.
It is a matter of priorities and unfortunately for the world in so many ways the US Government priority is war.
Japan just has a powerful earthquake detection and magnitude estimation system - it cost a fortune.
Yet Japan is not the greatest nation on the Earth. If the greatest nation on the Earth was to spend less feeding it's war machine it too could have a sophisticated detection system.
I would not mind betting that the Japanese system cost less than one of those $2 billion bombers.
It is a matter of priorities and unfortunately for the world in so many ways the US Government priority is war.
edit on 7/6/2012 by PuterMan because: (no reason given)
reply to post by SpaceJockey1
By the USGS own admission on the phase data that was a 6+
This is exactly the same figures as the recent Japan quake. Once again everyone else says it is a 6+
GFZ Potsdam
Russia
EMSC have come down to 5.9 but that does not surprise me as the go hand in glove with USGS most of the time.
I think it may be time to switch over to GFZ Potsdam as the main information provider and drop USGS as they are useless.
By the USGS own admission on the phase data that was a 6+
mb = 5.9 (325) ML = 6.3 ( 8) mblg = 5.8 ( 8) md = 0.0 ( 0) MS = 5.8 ( 1)
This is exactly the same figures as the recent Japan quake. Once again everyone else says it is a 6+
GFZ Potsdam
Russia
EMSC have come down to 5.9 but that does not surprise me as the go hand in glove with USGS most of the time.
I think it may be time to switch over to GFZ Potsdam as the main information provider and drop USGS as they are useless.
reply to post by PuterMan
Honestly PM, is there some damned conspiracy to afoot to ensure that any M6.0 can be made to come under that magnitude, in attempt to lessen the perceived impact?
Just amazing how man 'close to' M6.0 to M6.3's end up being (almost always) scaled DOWN!
Of course some end up being scaled back up, but usually some time later.
Honestly PM, is there some damned conspiracy to afoot to ensure that any M6.0 can be made to come under that magnitude, in attempt to lessen the perceived impact?
Just amazing how man 'close to' M6.0 to M6.3's end up being (almost always) scaled DOWN!
Of course some end up being scaled back up, but usually some time later.
reply to post by SpaceJockey1
I would like to say no, but I can't.
Follow this one
www.emsc-csem.org...
5.8 mb Fiji, now 5.7 mb by EMSC.
Potsdam also have it already: geofon.gfz-potsdam.de... 5.6 mb so will probably end up as 5.8/5.9 Mw
Not even posted by USGS yet (This is the rapid response to disaster in action)
Even tiny little New Caledonia have the details
www.seisme.nc...
But the rapid response boys from USGS are still pondering........
Update time = Thu Jun 7 9:48:23 UTC 2012
The rapid response from USGS is just in - 5.9 Mw as I said.
www.seisme.nc...
Laughable really. JV says they are concentrating on rapid response yet I can tell you for a fact that EMSC and GFZ get in before USGS 99% of the time. Perhaps they need to take a little trippy to Europe to see how things are done.
We may be causing all your economic woes (NOT - another US lie) but we sure as hell can determine earthquakes faster.
I would like to say no, but I can't.
Follow this one
www.emsc-csem.org...
5.8 mb Fiji, now 5.7 mb by EMSC.
Potsdam also have it already: geofon.gfz-potsdam.de... 5.6 mb so will probably end up as 5.8/5.9 Mw
Not even posted by USGS yet (This is the rapid response to disaster in action)
Even tiny little New Caledonia have the details
www.seisme.nc...
But the rapid response boys from USGS are still pondering........
Update time = Thu Jun 7 9:48:23 UTC 2012
The rapid response from USGS is just in - 5.9 Mw as I said.
www.seisme.nc...
Laughable really. JV says they are concentrating on rapid response yet I can tell you for a fact that EMSC and GFZ get in before USGS 99% of the time. Perhaps they need to take a little trippy to Europe to see how things are done.
We may be causing all your economic woes (NOT - another US lie) but we sure as hell can determine earthquakes faster.
edit on 7/6/2012 by PuterMan because: (no reason given)
Magnitude M 4.5
Region FYROM
Date time 2012-06-07 10:17:16.0 UTC
Location 41.24 N ; 20.90 E
Depth 10 km
Distances 256 km SW Sofia (pop 1,152,556 ; local time 13:17:16.2 2012-06-07)
69 km E Elbasan (pop 100,903 ; local time 12:17:16.2 2012-06-07)
15 km NE Ohrid (pop 54,908 ; local time 12:17:16.2 2012-06-07)
9 km SE Belcita (pop 2,804 ; local time 12:17:16.2 2012-06-07)
EMSC
reply to post by PuterMan
Japan's entire country is built on earthquake-prone ground, much of it suffering more frequent earthquakes than anywhere in the US, including Tokyo.
The Tokyo earthquake of 1923 was horrific, Kobe killed many thousands and crippled a key port in 1995 and cost $150B or so, and the M9 last year may well have cost over a trillion dollars.
While we can complain about Washington's penchant for weaponry, there are good reasons Japan has invested much more in earthquake monitoring than the US, as is China.
Japan's entire country is built on earthquake-prone ground, much of it suffering more frequent earthquakes than anywhere in the US, including Tokyo.
The Tokyo earthquake of 1923 was horrific, Kobe killed many thousands and crippled a key port in 1995 and cost $150B or so, and the M9 last year may well have cost over a trillion dollars.
While we can complain about Washington's penchant for weaponry, there are good reasons Japan has invested much more in earthquake monitoring than the US, as is China.
reply to post by JohnVidale
Coming from a man who presides over the most likely area in the US to produce a Japan style quake, and in whose area there are at least 8 nuclear reactors if find that statement extraordinary. What would be the cost of a Mag 9 on the Cascadia fault? Billions? Possible a trillion?
Then we look at California with many nuclear reactors at risk, and as you have commented yourself the Eastern side of the US is in need of monitoring for nuclear plant safety, most having been built to sub standard specifications like Japan.
I can see no good reasons at all why the US has not diverted some of the billions that go to the war machine to protect the safety of it's population. Oh of course, silly me. The population does not matter. Only the 0.01% and they have been provided for.
While we can complain about Washington's penchant for weaponry, there are good reasons Japan has invested much more in earthquake monitoring than the US, as is China.
Coming from a man who presides over the most likely area in the US to produce a Japan style quake, and in whose area there are at least 8 nuclear reactors if find that statement extraordinary. What would be the cost of a Mag 9 on the Cascadia fault? Billions? Possible a trillion?
Then we look at California with many nuclear reactors at risk, and as you have commented yourself the Eastern side of the US is in need of monitoring for nuclear plant safety, most having been built to sub standard specifications like Japan.
I can see no good reasons at all why the US has not diverted some of the billions that go to the war machine to protect the safety of it's population. Oh of course, silly me. The population does not matter. Only the 0.01% and they have been provided for.
reply to post by PuterMan
Couldn't have written it better myself!
Just wait for the coming disaster(s), and use the military to round everyone in FEMA camps. Declare martial law (for the 'good' of the people) and become a dictatorship.
It shouldn't really bother me so much, only our own Government is so far up the USA's arse, I no longer have any faith left, in good outcomes.
Couldn't have written it better myself!
Just wait for the coming disaster(s), and use the military to round everyone in FEMA camps. Declare martial law (for the 'good' of the people) and become a dictatorship.
It shouldn't really bother me so much, only our own Government is so far up the USA's arse, I no longer have any faith left, in good outcomes.
reply to post by PuterMan
I'm surprised you expect me to argue about Federal budgets on a forum. Some issues are more tractable than others, and no point to getting political here. The risk is much higher in Japan however.
I'm surprised you expect me to argue about Federal budgets on a forum. Some issues are more tractable than others, and no point to getting political here. The risk is much higher in Japan however.
reply to post by PuterMan
You definitely have a point -- in fact you've made several good ones. It's pretty well undeniable that sooner or later there'll be another huge quake off the PNW coast. Okay, the next big one might not be a mag 9 but it could well be in the mag 8 range, and even one of those could have some pretty serious consequences. But sooner or later there's likely to be one near a mag 9. (I know you know that, btw. )
So, yes, more should be done; way more money should be spent in preparedness and also in improving both the monitoring and (Japan-style) early warning systems.
However, I very much doubt that without a major change in thinking, the ones who decide where the money goes are not going to make the necessary funds available -- and in this respect I can see the point that John Vidale has presented vis-a-vis Japan versus the USA. As he pointed out, the Japanese have a history of truly terrible quake and tsunami events and as much of their entire nation has long been vunerable, they have long had an awareness and understanding that it was only a matter of time until the next big one.
At a government, decision-making level they were able to accept this reality and hence invested heavily in an attempt to reduce the impact when the next big one came along. In that regard, they were largely successful. There are undoubtedly people in Japan who are alive today because of the various measures that have been put in place over the past several decades.
Yes, perhaps 20,000 people lost their lives in the Tōhoku quake and tsunami, but how many more would have died if there had been no warning system in place, no sea walls or escape towers, and if the people had not received comprehensive instruction in how to act when a big quake hits?
If I were in John Vidale's shoes I'd probably be incredibly frustrated by the frankly impossible task of trying to convey the importance of this to the people who can decide to spend the money and do what the Japanese have already done.
I say it's impossible because the authorities who are charged with protection of "the people" just will not confront the reality that is staring them in the face, because they don't have a recent history of such a major event to recall and drive them on as a motivating force. They pay lip service to the reality, but whatever funds are allocated are a pittance compared to what would be needed if saving lives (and reducing property losses) were top priority.
Sadly, it means that probably, nothing truly substantial is going to be done until after the next great quake hits.
When did the funding for upgrading the (Pacific) Tsunami warning system come through? After the 2004 Great Asian Quake and Tsunami.
This will be the same. John Vidale and others like him are doing their best with what they've got and it both saddens and galls me that in spite of all their efforts, innocent lives will be needlessly lost because those in positions of power just don't want to believe that it can happen!
I feel that the only way to make them listen to experts like John and get them off their collective powerful behinds, face reality and provide the needed funding, is to present the next great PNW quake as a Matter of National Security (in capitals). Make it a "Defense" issue. (I used US spelling on purpose there.) Give them reasons why they need to spend money to defend the nation against something that might not happen for decades. That's how they justify most military spending, after all.
That might work.
Meantime, we can only hope that the next big one won't come along for a good while.
Okay I have to head off to get some work done, but I just want to thank everyone who's been discussing this point. It's a vital matter and I sincerely hope that John's organization and others involved in this important work at both the research and "nuts and bolts" level will get realistic levels of funding before it's too late.
Mike
You definitely have a point -- in fact you've made several good ones. It's pretty well undeniable that sooner or later there'll be another huge quake off the PNW coast. Okay, the next big one might not be a mag 9 but it could well be in the mag 8 range, and even one of those could have some pretty serious consequences. But sooner or later there's likely to be one near a mag 9. (I know you know that, btw. )
So, yes, more should be done; way more money should be spent in preparedness and also in improving both the monitoring and (Japan-style) early warning systems.
However, I very much doubt that without a major change in thinking, the ones who decide where the money goes are not going to make the necessary funds available -- and in this respect I can see the point that John Vidale has presented vis-a-vis Japan versus the USA. As he pointed out, the Japanese have a history of truly terrible quake and tsunami events and as much of their entire nation has long been vunerable, they have long had an awareness and understanding that it was only a matter of time until the next big one.
At a government, decision-making level they were able to accept this reality and hence invested heavily in an attempt to reduce the impact when the next big one came along. In that regard, they were largely successful. There are undoubtedly people in Japan who are alive today because of the various measures that have been put in place over the past several decades.
Yes, perhaps 20,000 people lost their lives in the Tōhoku quake and tsunami, but how many more would have died if there had been no warning system in place, no sea walls or escape towers, and if the people had not received comprehensive instruction in how to act when a big quake hits?
If I were in John Vidale's shoes I'd probably be incredibly frustrated by the frankly impossible task of trying to convey the importance of this to the people who can decide to spend the money and do what the Japanese have already done.
I say it's impossible because the authorities who are charged with protection of "the people" just will not confront the reality that is staring them in the face, because they don't have a recent history of such a major event to recall and drive them on as a motivating force. They pay lip service to the reality, but whatever funds are allocated are a pittance compared to what would be needed if saving lives (and reducing property losses) were top priority.
Sadly, it means that probably, nothing truly substantial is going to be done until after the next great quake hits.
When did the funding for upgrading the (Pacific) Tsunami warning system come through? After the 2004 Great Asian Quake and Tsunami.
This will be the same. John Vidale and others like him are doing their best with what they've got and it both saddens and galls me that in spite of all their efforts, innocent lives will be needlessly lost because those in positions of power just don't want to believe that it can happen!
I feel that the only way to make them listen to experts like John and get them off their collective powerful behinds, face reality and provide the needed funding, is to present the next great PNW quake as a Matter of National Security (in capitals). Make it a "Defense" issue. (I used US spelling on purpose there.) Give them reasons why they need to spend money to defend the nation against something that might not happen for decades. That's how they justify most military spending, after all.
That might work.
Meantime, we can only hope that the next big one won't come along for a good while.
Okay I have to head off to get some work done, but I just want to thank everyone who's been discussing this point. It's a vital matter and I sincerely hope that John's organization and others involved in this important work at both the research and "nuts and bolts" level will get realistic levels of funding before it's too late.
Mike
reply to post by PuterMan
As an American, I could not agree more with your view on my government's spending priorities. All these wars are looked upon as investment opportunities. Natural resources (translation=oil) plus all the rebuilding contracts that go to companies where the politicians sit on the board of directors thus making money off the disasters they created.
Most politicians and their shenanigans can be viewed like earthquakes and the richter scale. Those on the lower level (say city or county) only get up to a 2 or 3 magnitude in kickbacks, so it's not noticed by most folks. Once on the state level, the shakiness becomes a little more obvious making them a 4 or 5 mag. Federal level they don't even mask what they are doing, creating a 7 or worse (depending on if you live in a middle eastern country, magnitude much higher). While they are bombing people who made the mistake of being born in the wrong country, keeping America free by the way, they're counting money in the backroom.
Now why would they spend money on say better equipment to keep their people safe and better forewarned of a coming disaster when they won't make a dime from it? Only their self made disasters bring in a profit.
And John Vidale, I appreciate your input on this forum and would never expect you to get political as you are not hiding behind a fake name like the rest of us. I am sure someone in your position probably gets more frustrated than the rest of us and I hope you continue to contribute on this thread. It may be beneficial if you did adopt a pen name so that you can really voice your opinion without fear of reprisal. Just my two cents.
As an American, I could not agree more with your view on my government's spending priorities. All these wars are looked upon as investment opportunities. Natural resources (translation=oil) plus all the rebuilding contracts that go to companies where the politicians sit on the board of directors thus making money off the disasters they created.
Most politicians and their shenanigans can be viewed like earthquakes and the richter scale. Those on the lower level (say city or county) only get up to a 2 or 3 magnitude in kickbacks, so it's not noticed by most folks. Once on the state level, the shakiness becomes a little more obvious making them a 4 or 5 mag. Federal level they don't even mask what they are doing, creating a 7 or worse (depending on if you live in a middle eastern country, magnitude much higher). While they are bombing people who made the mistake of being born in the wrong country, keeping America free by the way, they're counting money in the backroom.
Now why would they spend money on say better equipment to keep their people safe and better forewarned of a coming disaster when they won't make a dime from it? Only their self made disasters bring in a profit.
And John Vidale, I appreciate your input on this forum and would never expect you to get political as you are not hiding behind a fake name like the rest of us. I am sure someone in your position probably gets more frustrated than the rest of us and I hope you continue to contribute on this thread. It may be beneficial if you did adopt a pen name so that you can really voice your opinion without fear of reprisal. Just my two cents.
Earthquake Details
This event has been reviewed by a seismologist.
Magnitude
6.0
Date-Time
Thursday, June 07, 2012 at 16:03:18 UTC
Thursday, June 07, 2012 at 11:03:18 AM at epicenter
Location
15.919°S, 72.516°W
Depth
99.7 km (62.0 miles)
Region
SOUTHERN PERU
Distances
119 km (74 miles) WNW (298°) from Arequipa, Peru
216 km (134 miles) SE (128°) from Puquio, Peru
221 km (137 miles) NW (310°) from Moquegua, Peru
648 km (402 miles) SE (131°) from LIMA, Peru
Location Uncertainty
horizontal +/- 16 km (9.9 miles); depth +/- 8.4 km (5.2 miles)
Parameters
NST=450, Nph=543, Dmin=470.9 km, Rmss=0.91 sec, Gp= 54°,
M-type=teleseismic moment magnitude (Mw), Version=A
Source
Magnitude: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
Location: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
Event ID
usb000a9lp
INFO
This event has been reviewed by a seismologist.
Magnitude
6.0
Date-Time
Thursday, June 07, 2012 at 16:03:18 UTC
Thursday, June 07, 2012 at 11:03:18 AM at epicenter
Location
15.919°S, 72.516°W
Depth
99.7 km (62.0 miles)
Region
SOUTHERN PERU
Distances
119 km (74 miles) WNW (298°) from Arequipa, Peru
216 km (134 miles) SE (128°) from Puquio, Peru
221 km (137 miles) NW (310°) from Moquegua, Peru
648 km (402 miles) SE (131°) from LIMA, Peru
Location Uncertainty
horizontal +/- 16 km (9.9 miles); depth +/- 8.4 km (5.2 miles)
Parameters
NST=450, Nph=543, Dmin=470.9 km, Rmss=0.91 sec, Gp= 54°,
M-type=teleseismic moment magnitude (Mw), Version=A
Source
Magnitude: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
Location: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
Event ID
usb000a9lp
INFO
reply to post by lurksoften
USGS should get credit for this, 1 of 3 tensors released fast, with 14 stations
earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eqarchives/fm/neic_b000a9lp_fmt.php
GFZ Potsdam Geofon 6.1, 12 stations
geofon.gfz-potsdam.de/data/alerts/gfz2012ldxg/mt.txt
USGS should get credit for this, 1 of 3 tensors released fast, with 14 stations
earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eqarchives/fm/neic_b000a9lp_fmt.php
USGS Body-Wave Moment Tensor Solution
12/06/07 16:03:18.36
Epicenter: -15.919 -72.516
MW 6.0
USGS MOMENT TENSOR SOLUTION
Depth 105 No. of sta: 14
Moment Tensor; Scale 10**18 Nm
Mrr= 0.30 Mtt=-0.81
Mpp= 0.51 Mrt=-0.50
Mrp=-1.20 Mtp=-0.19
Principal axes:
T Val= 1.62 Plg=43 Azm= 97
N -0.32 29 218
P -1.31 33 328
Best Double Couple:Mo=1.5*10**18
NP1:Strike=214 Dip=84 Slip= 61
NP2: 114 29 168
GFZ Potsdam Geofon 6.1, 12 stations
geofon.gfz-potsdam.de/data/alerts/gfz2012ldxg/mt.txt
edit on 7-6-2012 by mlirenr because: (no reason given)
reply to post by mlirenr
Well I will give them credit for that, and just wonder who from USGS has been reading this thread and taken note?
Time will tell!
Well I will give them credit for that, and just wonder who from USGS has been reading this thread and taken note?
Time will tell!
reply to post by PuterMan
There are knowledgeable, lurking eyes at this place. Beware. Newbie, my ***.
And oh, stop trying to drag John into commenting on political points. I thought we went through this already... You want him to go somewhere else? I don't, thanks.
There are knowledgeable, lurking eyes at this place. Beware. Newbie, my ***.
And oh, stop trying to drag John into commenting on political points. I thought we went through this already... You want him to go somewhere else? I don't, thanks.
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