Quake Watch 2012

Quiet earthquake wise here in NZ, weather is still unusually stable too (a link there?)
Full Moon tomorrow, will it bring that long overdue Mag 5+ I wonder?

tick, tick, tick

reply to post by muzzy


What??? You're starting to sound like the MOON MAN!

But really, it's like New Zealand has been forgotten lately (which might or might not be a good thing).

Last week there was a lot of activity around the Kermadecs, Fiji etc and considering that fault line runs all the way down and thru NZ, I was waiting for some Southern EQ migration, but nothing so far.

Just hope it's a clear night on Sunday so that I can watch this supermoon rising.

reply to post by muzzy


Not only in NZ - but on all fronts of nature, even on major politics.
Things are 'wonderfully' quiet everywhere - like waiting in suspense.

I do not expect major issues for next 3 months;
but coming end August/September we should enter a period of major activities
- nature and political; worldwide kind of incidents.

Not a prediction - just an observation of cycles.

Enjoy this full moon weekend while all is peacfull!

reply to post by JohnVidale

The San Andreas work is referring to tremor, not earthquakes

So what the are tremors? Are they mini ruptures or is the deep crust simply shaking? Are you in fact saying, "Oh they are only tremors and we don't need to worry about them as they have nothing to do with earthquakes". That being the case whey all the expenditure to study them?

However one slices what one expects to happen, the test is what does happen, and larger tidal stresses do not do much to the rate of earthquake occurrence.

Just playing Devil's Advocate for a moment, how do you know? What would the rate of earthquakes be if there was NO stress from tides?

In fact, tidal stress addition due to the variation in distance to the Sun and Moon are more important than whether the alignment is so perfect as to result in an eclipse,

So in fact tidal stress does matter.

so keying on the presence of an eclipse is a mistake.

Or perhaps is a reference point for what might be the maximum potential since an eclipse is an artefact of distance. It is in fact the point at which the maximum distance is achieved is it not?

Finally, whether an earthquake happens or not in this instance is much less diagnostic that examining whether the centuries of recorded earthquakes tend to happen during eclipses. This is just one more sample on a time series of thousands.

I may be misunderstanding what you are saying here John but surely it is the centuries of recorded earthquakes that just happen to occur during or close to eclipses that gives rise to the speculation that another may similarly occur during the next eclipse? The diagnostic surely is the timespan.

Fun to speculate, though.

Indeed


reply to post by JohnVidale

Even if they were on the megathrust, the chances of a dangerous quake are not high. Unfortunately, the odds are that when the next bad quake strikes, it will be a complete surprise.

Thanks for that John. I needed a good deep belly laugh to get my day going.

Science is a wonderful thing!

reply to post by angelchemuel

Oh dear...here we go...Prof. Erik Klemetti's latest blogg is all about the moon and its effects on EQ's and volcamo activity. Far too long to post it here in its entirety...but please give his view a read.

Yes, oh dear indeed. An immediate denial of anything. Referencing your link:

Some of the so-called evidence for this moon-earthquake relationship is specious at best.

(Emphasis by me)

This is a certain indicator of the mindset employed and a perfect indicator that the subject is not being approached with an open mind.

Am I surprised? No. I respect Prof Klemetti but let me ask you one thing.

What answer to you expect if you ask a priest if God exists?

Originally posted by ericblair4891

Does the moon cause earthquakes?

No. It may trigger them but does not cause them.

I think the moon has a bigger effect on earthquakes which are caused by volcanic actions. Oh, Puterman. I was going to explain about Yellowstone and the new moons and the eclipse and the webicorders from the swarms. I wish I could post January 15 with the trace of the first quake which shows up 2 hours after the eclipse.

You can get the seismograms here, or had you forgotten that?

Is this thing on?

reply to post by Aromaz


One thing you can guarantee is that since we are already 'overdue' for the next mag 6+ (using averages by about 2 to 3 days) it will be attributed to the moon if it happens in the next two or three days.

Question is how long after the new moon before one can stop pointing the finger and saying "It was the Moon what dun it yer Honour!"

reply to post by PuterMan


And we also have to contend with SPACEQUAKES!

It's just great that we keep learning new things that help explain the unknown.

reply to post by SpaceJockey1


Mm, did a search on ATS and came up with several references to exactly what my first thoughts were - the booms people hear.

Rumbling noise being heard around the world...report here...(Page 56) or Are we paying attention enough? Strange Sounds in the sky (Page 3)

I would not take any notice of anything from beforeitsnews.com but that suggestion may be reasonable.

There is also a connection that berkeleygal made as well on her thread Spacequakes Rumble Near Earth Belated S&F by the way.

Food for thought perhaps?

correction to post by PuterMan because of bad spelling


What answer todo you expect if you ask a priest if God exists?

:bnghd: :bnghd: :bnghd: :bnghd: Proofreading is not one of my strong points. I just do not see the errors until later. Usually as in this case after it is too late to correct them!

Mornin Puterman..
whats shakin today

reply to post by Lil Drummerboy


Morning LDB. A whole lot of not very much by the look of it!

I didnt see this posted... Oh and good morning

Earthquake Details

This event has been reviewed by a seismologist.
Magnitude
4.3
Date-Time
Saturday, May 05, 2012 at 09:23:23 UTC
Saturday, May 05, 2012 at 02:23:23 AM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones
Location
38.796°N, 122.759°W
Depth
2.8 km (1.7 miles)
Region
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
Distances
4 km (3 miles) E (93°) from The Geysers, CA
5 km (3 miles) SW (216°) from Cobb, CA
6 km (4 miles) WNW (292°) from Anderson Springs, CA
39 km (24 miles) N (353°) from Santa Rosa, CA
115 km (72 miles) WNW (284°) from Sacramento, CA
Location Uncertainty
horizontal +/- 0.1 km (0.1 miles); depth +/- 0.2 km (0.1 miles)
Parameters
Nph= 71, Dmin=0 km, Rmss=0.07 sec, Gp= 43°,
M-type=regional moment magnitude (Mw), Version=5
Source
California Integrated Seismic Net:
USGS Caltech CGS UCB UCSD UNR
Event ID
nc71776130

reply to post by PuterMan


Tremor vs earthquakes - we can see faults moving three ways - continuously, via earthquakes, or via "slow slip". Slow slip involves orders of magnitude smaller stress drops than normal earthquakes. Here's recent paper in which describing slow slip- web.me.com...

What is the rate of earthquakes when there is NO stress from tides? The usual way to explore the effect of tides is to compare times of encouraging stress with times of discouraging, which seems even a better method. The rate of earthquakes when tides are UNloading the faults is about the same as when they are loading the faults.

Tides DO matter, it is just they matter only infinitesimally, occasionally enough to measure, never enough to warrant extra caution.

Examining the centuries of earthquakes does not reveal a correlation of tides with earthquakes. Only selecting special circumstances - for example shallow earthquakes on weak faults where and when tides are exceptionally large - sometimes shows a correlation. The correlation is that weak.

Another point I should raise is that the largest component of tides - the ocean tides - are delayed and interfering, so the most perfect alignment of the Earth, Moon, and Sun is not generally the time of very largest tidal stresses.

The latest Quake watch and predictions from Dutch.....I like the guy. He's doing a great job of trying to educate and warn people concerning weather related topics and HARRP. When Dutch spots a HARRP ring, scaler squares, circle sweeps there is bad weather 24- 72 hrs after sweeps are found. He predicted the Dallas Tornado's and I can almost bet he saved some lives....

www.youtube.com...

Originally posted by tracehd1
The latest Quake watch and predictions from Dutch.....I like the guy. He's doing a great job of trying to educate and warn people concerning weather related topics and HARRP. When Dutch spots a HARRP ring, scaler squares, circle sweeps there is bad weather 24- 72 hrs after sweeps are found. He predicted the Dallas Tornado's and I can almost bet he saved some lives....

www.youtube.com...

I am not American but I invoke the fifth on the grounds that if I say anything I might incriminate myself.

:bnghd: :bnghd: :bnghd: :bnghd: :bnghd:

reply to post by SpaceJockey1


Yeah it does, doesn't it
I don't pay any attention to Mr Ring though.
Just looking for something to post up

Just the one quake on the 4th UTC
4.316, 3700722, -45.52781, 166.72321, 2012/5/4 12:41:08, Coal River Bay, Fiordland, Not Felt

I called it Coal River Bay because the bay doesn't actually have a name on maps , not on Google, Yahoo or even NZ Faults Topographical, Coal River runs into the bay from Lake Beattie so seemed logical to call it Coal River Bay

Quite a few small events on Geonet Rapid, but its not a given that they are accurate at all.

The Moon was really big last night, looked Full already. Clear and Frosty this morning -2C here

Originally posted by PuterMan
reply to post by Lil Drummerboy

 

Morning LDB. A whole lot of not very much by the look of it!

Bit like the lull before the STORM that we were all commenting on the week before April 11th

Should see a pickup from today...

Did you feel this one Muzzy?

Reference Number 3701491
Universal Time May 5 2012 at 23:33
NZ Standard Time Sunday, May 6 2012 at 11:33 am
Latitude, Longitude 41.39°S, 174.68°E
Focal Depth 30 km
Richter magnitude 4.2
Region Wellington
Location 10 km south-west of Wellington

Felt in the Wellington region and Picton.

SOURCE

reply to post by SpaceJockey1

Na didn't feel it
the house has been creaking all morning, as the frost melted off the concrete tile roof ( 7-8 tons of tiles) and the sun got warmer.
At 11:30 I was out on the patio weeding the flower beds, close to the earth, but nothing moving in here but worms

I c 3 reports MM4 from our area


At least it got Geonet to update their database, 10 quakes for the 4th now, incl 3 x 4's