Quake Watch 2012

reply to post by murkraz


I would say don't worry about the weather..it just is what it is. However, in the middle of last week I was in my small 6'x6' greenhouse and what was in there with me but what we call a 'daddy longlegs' here in the UK. They don't appear until September! Ho hum!

OT question, I know, like many, I go on about a 'bad moon rising' and having a knicker elastic effect...I can hear Puters wince from here....but here is my question...is there some sort of 'energy' relationship between the sun/moon which would give the impression that the moon has a greater effect on eq and volcanic activity? Because the moon has visible phases, measurable phases which we can relate too, we can 'quantify' if you will a 'reason' why eq's are more so called prevalent during certain moon phases, whereas in fact if there is a energy relationship between the sun/moon, it only 'appears' that the moon has a so called effect?

Sorry, I am trying to ask/explain this on my first morning brew, and I'm never fully functioning until I have had my second!

@spacejockey....I can totally relate to the planetary allignment idea...When we had that really big allignment in '98/'99 without going to 'weird' about it, I had no idea it was happening, but I was having a very 'weird' week. A friend who I happened to be teaching at the time, was an amateur astronomer and he told me there was this allignment going on and he felt that that could be causing my 'weirdness' at that time...just like the moon has an effect on the tides! I didn't get internet until 2003 so had no idea about this allignment thing that was going on.

Rainbows
Jane

reply to post by murkraz


I will try and go back as far as I can on the earthquakes but obviously not all the data will be available as for one thing I only recently started collecting the TEC data (once every five minutes 24 hours a day!)

I have found a source for the KP index back as far as 1995 however so over a period of time I should be able to put a few together.

I am quite happy for anyone to utilise the data if they wish, just give me a mention. I have tried to put attribution on all of the data so anyone can double check it as well. I am not infallible.


btw did you see the u2u yet?

reply to post by angelchemuel

Because the moon has visible phases

I probably don't need to say this but...................I believe there is a tendency for people to ignore the Moon when it is not visible, or hardly visible. Out of sight, out of mind. It is of course always there, any possible effects coming from the changes in gravity according to it's position, and not it's visibility - that is just an indicator of it's position.

Another thing to mention is..........even the Sun does not sit fair and square in the middle of the Solar system but 'wobbles' around the common centre of gravity of the system.

This is why I am trying to collect data around each earthquake event so we can perhaps determine if there is indeed n effect.

reply to post by SpaceJockey1


I am curious as to why you say the 14th to 16th May.

The next conjunction is on the 22md May at 05:32:11.8 and is between Mercury and Jupiter. The next new Moon is 20th May at 20 23:48. We went past Perigee on 6th May and the Moon is at Apogee on the 19th May at 16:14.

The Earth was at Perihelion on the 5th Jan and will be at Aphelion on the 5th July so in may the point of apsis is closer to aphelion that perihelion.

As far as apsis goes people have noted on this thread, including myself, that there can be more winter earthquake activity - but it may just be a feeling as people have more time in the winter to look. This is the point of the data gathering. I could graph that but I am busy today.

reply to post by PuterMan


Thank you for not wincing at me too much PuterMan...

What do you make of this....got info off Erik's Wired blogg

2012-04-29 11:58:32 37.767 -25.395 2.2 ML Fogo-Congro
2012-04-29 11:58:16 37.762 -25.393 1.6 ML Fogo-Congro
2012-04-29 11:15:49 37.748 -25.393 2.9 ML Fogo-Congro
2012-04-29 11:15:35 37.753 -25.398 1.8 ML Fogo-Congro
M 3.1 - AZORES ISLANDS, PORTUGAL - 2012-04-29 11:15 UTC This quake was in Volcanic Complex of Furnas - São Miguel, Azores

www.wired.com...

Rainbows
Jane

reply to post by angelchemuel


Mm,I did not actually din that on the blog but basically I would listen to what ever Prof Klemetti has to say about it.

I think it is just possible that he might be a teensy weensy bit more qualified than me, (Only just mind )

As I was browsing the topics trying to find that one I cam across the comment: volcanoes spend much more time not erupting than erupting.

I like that, but then I suppose I would as it is not doomfull. (New word)

Originally posted by angelchemuel
reply to post by murkraz

 

I would say don't worry about the weather..it just is what it is. However, in the middle of last week I was in my small 6'x6' greenhouse and what was in there with me but what we call a 'daddy longlegs' here in the UK. They don't appear until September! Ho hum!

Are those Daddy long legs guys these?

We have them as well around September with the usual barrage of earwigs and other gross insects. It would be super weird to see one out there now haha.

@PuterMan
What is the u2u? I haven't slept, flu is creeping upon me, earthquake research morning it is.

Also, what is up with the little quakes North of Svalbard? That's pretty much the N Pole.

Originally posted by PuterMan
reply to post by angelchemuel

 

Mm,I did not actually din that on the blog but basically I would listen to what ever Prof Klemetti has to say about it.

I think it is just possible that he might be a teensy weensy bit more qualified than me, (Only just mind

)

As I was browsing the topics trying to find that one I cam across the comment: volcanoes spend much more time not erupting than erupting.

I like that, but then I suppose I would as it is not doomfull. (New word)

"din"

If you click on the drop down menu to select 'newest first' and scroll down to post 26+27 they are by luisport.
The whole blogg/topic at the moment is worth a quick skeg....cascadia is mentioned, and unfortunately one of their rather knowlegable chaps can't get on wired (I can't either) to post (I used to ask questions and post on Eriks previous site) and has got a message through Randolph Kruger. Also with reference to Iwo Jima...have you seen anything on the seismic charts with reference to the underwater/sea eruption? I take it that IJ is on a fault?

Rainbows
Jane

reply to post by murkraz


Yup that be them! My daughter is studying animal biology at uni...she's perplexed...so I hope she remembers to ask one of her lecturers...I'll bet he/she says..."It's the weather"!



Rainbows
Jane

reply to post by angelchemuel


"Daddy Longlegs" in Africa are spiders! Just saying!

Originally posted by PuterMan
reply to post by SpaceJockey1

 

I am curious as to why you say the 14th to 16th May.

The next conjunction is on the 22md May at 05:32:11.8 and is between Mercury and Jupiter. The next new Moon is 20th May at 20 23:48. We went past Perigee on 6th May and the Moon is at Apogee on the 19th May at 16:14.

The Earth was at Perihelion on the 5th Jan and will be at Aphelion on the 5th July so in may the point of apsis is closer to aphelion that perihelion.

As far as apsis goes people have noted on this thread, including myself, that there can be more winter earthquake activity - but it may just be a feeling as people have more time in the winter to look. This is the point of the data gathering. I could graph that but I am busy today.

Good question Puterman

The basis of the 14th to 16th May planetary alignment theory is that you have more than just a Mercury / Jupiter alignment during those days:

JUPITER >>>> on opposite side of the Sun to earth)
SUN >>>> MERCURY to the right-side
MOON >>>> inside earth/sun orbit
EARTH

This particular strong EARTH/SUN/JUPITER alignment around the 14th is apparently a potential major earthquake inducer, with Mercury adding some influence the following day. Additionally there's even some possible impact from Venus moving through the alignments of Mars & Saturn.

See graphic view:


So lookout for an 8+ around this time, though I'd settle for a 7 to 7.5

reply to post by angelchemuel


Something wrong with "din". Dyslexic "find" with missing letters due to rapc keyboard KO? Of course in the best traditions of modern newspapers and internet sites it was not proofread either.

If you click on the drop down menu to select 'newest first' and scroll down to post 26+27 they are by luisport.

Hold out the wrist. *smack* Did you say it was in the comments?

can't get on wired (I can't either) to post

See the DISCUS logo? Get yourself a discus logion and then you can post on many sites including the PNSN Seismo blog. DISCUS

I'll bet he/she says..."It's the weather"!

No he will probably say "It's the greenhouse" (Not the greenhouse effect!)

reply to post by SpaceJockey1

This particular strong EARTH/SUN/JUPITER alignment around the 14th is apparently a potential major earthquake inducer, with Mercury adding some influence the following day.

I don't know so much about these alignments but I would have thought that with Jupiter in opposition it would have little or no effect. Consider the distance and consider the ACTUAL size of the Sun rather than the graphics which never give you a 'real' picture.

I think perhaps I may have my terminology mixed up. When I say opposition i mean the opposite side of the Sun but I think (confirmation anyone) the astrological term 'Opposition' means when the object is the opposite side of the sky from something else. That being the case then the position of Jupiter would be a conjunction, even though the gravitational effect would be weaker as far as I see it. Like I say I am not familiar with these terms.

Jupiter is ~750,000,000 km form the Sun and we are ~150,000,000 km so at the point of opposition there is the maximum distance between us and Jupiter that there can be at 900,000,000 km.

Compare that to a conjunction when the distance between us and Jupiter would be ~600,000,000 and no Sun in the way.

Just my 2c

Cool graphic BTW, where does that come from?


I happened to come across a graphic of a Jupiter / Uranus / Earth / Sun conjunction on 19th September 2010. I will link it rather than upload an image.

I went back to my records to see if this conjunction had any effect. For the period 16th Sept 2010 to 22 Sept 2010 there was only the one Mag 6+

Date/Time UTC,Latitude,Longitude,Magnitude,Depth(Km),Location
2010-09-17 19:21:15, 36.438, 70.787, 6.2, 220.4, Hindu Kush Region. Afghanistan

Of course obviously conjunctions don't just happen instantly. So here is the cumulative energy graph for the 6 months before the conjunction to six months after (avoiding 11 Mar 2011 as it would skew the graph completely.)



I have to say that I can't see much evidence of an increase as the conjunction opposition approaches/recedes.

Edited @ 13.27 BST, 12:27 UTC

reply to post by PuterMan


Very good analysis of the astronomical numbers/facts PuterMan.

Maybe there's 'other' unknown 'space' effect taking place when the planets are in certain alignments?

Suggest you visit this link if you want to see how the planets line up for any given day, and grab graphics: SOLAR SYSTEM SCOPE

reply to post by SpaceJockey1


I meant to post this earlier. Just a little graphic I knocked up using Home Planet showing the progression form now with Earth on the opposite side of the sun to Jupiter round to the end of the year when they are on the same side.

Video_2012-04-30_124038.wmv ~1.2MB

Thanks for the link. Will have a look at that.

regarding the CA quake in crestview on saturday - i just read an article about it and what struck me were the comments about how much it shook things even though it was small. some people said "it was like a sonic boom". is that normal for a small quake? i thought i read several times here that small quakes aren't that noticeable. this one made buildings in LA sway.

was there something different about this quake? or not.

reply to post by pasiphae


I was curious about that 'sonic boom' comment quoted in the media as well.

Is that a common thing? I've been in several small west coast earthquakes and never heard of anyone hearing a 'boom'.

Experts? What say you?

reply to post by stanguilles7


and that seems to be a new thing with these small quakes happening in odd places. the loud boom and the shaking along with a quake under a 4.0. that seems odd to me and it seems to be happening more often??

reply to post by pasiphae

regarding the CA quake in crestview on saturday - i just read an article about it and what struck me were the comments about how much it shook things even though it was small.

Linkypoos? They are wonderful things and help us to know what on earth you are talking about.

You see saying the CA quake in crestview is a bit like me saying the Mayo quake in Garahill. The difference perhaps is that not even the Irish would know where that was.

So, if it is not too much trouble, a link to the article and a link to the earthquake on USGS would be very much appreciated. Thanks

reply to post by PuterMan


LOL! okay, sorry 'bout that. there were a couple of threads on it here but they both got closed. this is the article i just saw:

www.huffingtonpost.com...

not much to it just the report of a sonic boom struck me as odd.... and the fact that it was even "news" worthy since it was so small.


edit to add: i'd like to know where stanguilles7 heard/read about the sonic boom comment too. if it was just that one article or if it was reported by another source. i'm confused about all the booming sounds associated with small quakes.