Advanced Warning of Double Major Storms For UK Next Week - In Depth Analysis (Be Prepared)

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reply to post by Lucero


i thought there were if's and but's from the very first post in the thread. there was never any claim made that the storm would happen how predicted when the thread was made.

it was pointed out all along that the data may change and updates will be given. that is what has happened throughout the whole thread.

what is there to feel a tit about? it is not the o.p.'s fault people don't read the whole post and thread.
if they did they would know the storm prediction was subject to change and updates, meaning it could down grade.

there was only ever decussion of the potential it had if it did not down grade.

Originally posted by PhoenixOD
Actually BRITWARRIOR i saw this post last night while searching though the recent posts forum just before i went to sleep. I wouldn't have bothered taking a series of picture otherwise. with comments like

"This second storm will go down in history, and the damage total will be far higher than the £150 million in Scotland this week."

I was understandably alarmed and decided to make a photographic record of the storm as it came in. So you are wrong in your assumptions and your comments regarding my post are uncalled for. If you are looking for a troll maybe you should look at yourself.

Well what can i say... you have clearly failed to keep up to date, if you was going to make a photographic record of things it would be wise to keep up to date, as we all said countless times... things will change, we told you this storm would miss days ago now, and said of just snow showers to higher elevations, which is exactly what happened did it not?

"This second storm will go down in history, and the damage total will be far higher than the £150 million in Scotland this week."

The post above was said two weeks ago now no? where did you get that from what's the date of the post? this would have been the case had it track more north bringing high winds to southern England, this changed days ago now, in fact it was said on here before the Met O put out its warnings & changed them to something more in line of what people was saying in here, as we was using the same models they use to predict the outcome,

Originally posted by jrmcleod
To All The People On This Thread

Thank you all so much for another brilliant thread. I have seen some people learn weather forecasting (you know who you are) through these 2 threads, which is always a good thing...knowing more about the Earth is never a bad idea.

Yes the storm forecast for last night never quite materialised in our neck of the woods but it did still pound France and Germany. Hopefully not too badly.

We've had our fair share of bad weather these past 2 weeks, all I'm hopeful for now is a couple of hours of snow starting at around 6pm on Christmas Eve and lasting through til sunrise so that we can all enjoy the added atmosphere that snow on the ground brings on Christmas Day (especially for the kids).

Hopefully the worst of winter is behind us now, but i doubt it is. I'll keep a close eye on the weather (or maybe some of you guys can now) and we'll see what other threads can be created if in the event we have a horrible situation that's worth reporting again.

Too all of you,

Have a very Merry Christmas and Happy New Year for when it comes!!

p.s. Yes Rainbows Do Make People Smile!!

Thanks Jamie, this has been one of the most interesting and enjoyable threads for me in a long time.
Fortunately AS YOU CLEARLY STATED FROM THE BEGINNING, the storm did change its path LIKE YOU SAID IT MIGHT do, therefore we missed a nasty storm.
Even the idiots on here didn't mar the quality of this thread, well done!
Merry Christmas to you mate, and all the other decent people on here!

Originally posted by jrmcleod
Hopefully the worst of winter is behind us now, but i doubt it is. I'll keep a close eye on the weather (or maybe some of you guys can now) and we'll see what other threads can be created if in the event we have a horrible situation that's worth reporting again.

Too all of you,

Have a very Merry Christmas and Happy New Year for when it comes!!

p.s. Yes Rainbows Do Make People Smile!!

To the rude 'i told you so posters', jrmcleod is not some kind of meteorological Harold Camping. He did not insist 100% that we were all going to be swept away in some apocalyptic event today, he was merely giving an advanced warning of a worst case scenario that was forcasted in advance by various computer models.

There is definitely plenty of Winter left and I'm predicting (not based on any science at all) a huge snow storm some time after Crimbo and some time before Summer (vague I know ) We'll all have to take a couple of days off work and just have some fun. Some of the UK's tougher residents will go around in the nip proclaiming that it's not even cold.....well that's what I want to happen anyway.

Happy Holidays everyone.

Basically, and i'll try make this a short and understandable as possible to even the most not so clued up people regarding the process & extreme dificualty in prediction weather, there is nowhere more complex in the world then predicting weather then over the UK simply because of the nature of the Atlantic & Jet stream so many more things in fact, but i'll stop there

Basically 2 weeks ago a FI chart was released, FI meaning "Fantasy Island" it was a predicted storm of the like nobody had ever seen even in an FI chart, with a central pressure of 920mb

To put that into perspective Hurricane Katrina's pressure finally bottomed out at 4PM reading 902mb so 20mb difference here,

Tuesdays LP (low pressure) over Scotland dropped as low as 948mb, and bawbag 940mb, last nights somewhere around 970mb the lower the LP center the potential for higher winds,

So the FI chart issued 2 weeks back now had a predicted center of 920mb that is not at all normal for these waters /part of the world, that's a Cat3 hurricane aiming for central England, that is what all the fuss was about last week, it wasn't until a few days ago we was sure where this thing would hit and how intense it would be, so perfectly reasonable to issue early warnings for people to "be aware" of the possibilities and closer to the time take action if need be, or stand down, which was the case

The best way i could describe how dificult it is is similar to how shapes such as the Stealth bomber stay in the sky when that shape doesn't want to fly, it makes millions of tiny adjustments just to stay up there with it CPU on board, much the same way these super computer make adjustments with predicting these storm systems, thing change all the time with so many factors to account for, other systems what they do, the jets stream how that changes, the sea temps the continent temps hundreds of things which change all the time, so then the system re runs with its new data, and the forecast changes,


Sorry bit of a rush job post got to run take care folks

Sad to see an actual decent thread on here with excellent research that even made it clear from the start that things might (hopefully) change have a few idiots determined to wreck it and insult the OP.
Let's just hope this doesn't put him or anyone else that is actually interested in intelligent discussion off...

Originally posted by AgentSmith
Sad to see an actual decent thread on here with excellent research that even made it clear from the start that things might (hopefully) change have a few idiots determined to wreck it and insult the OP.
Let's just hope this doesn't put him or anyone else that is actually interested in intelligent discussion off...

It isn't putting me off because comments of ignorance seem to be quite rife in ATS at the moment, the best i can do is not react, however, it would be good if it were moderated better so that people weren't deterred in future because I'm quite sure that has and is happening.

Clear argumentative and negative comments need to be reviewed and removed because they bring nothing to the table...especially in this thread!

@the OP

Have you seen



Will keep watching, i look forward to possibly one more great thread before the years out

Originally posted by BRITWARRIOR
@the OP

Have you seen



Will keep watching, i look forward to possibly one more great thread before the years out

GFS sure is favoring a stormy prospect from around the 23rd onwards with LP after LP coming in off of the Atlantic, which is a far cry from yesterdays model run. This just shows you how even predicting a white Christmas with 8 days to go is impossible. The best we can hope for is waiting til Monday to see what kind of air mass, whether cold or warm will be over the UK. If you have viewed GFS today, you'll see that there is potential for a few pretty potent storms on or around the 23rd and 29th, so there could easily be another thread. However, that time frame very much is FI just now.

What i will say though is the prospects of snow on or around Christmas Eve/Day is looking more likely from Manchester north than it has done recently. Glasgow might be a fair shout for a bet since it would probably snow in the potential NNW winds...

Originally posted by jrmcleod

Originally posted by BRITWARRIOR
@the OP

Have you seen



Will keep watching, i look forward to possibly one more great thread before the years out

GFS sure is favoring a stormy prospect from around the 23rd onwards with LP after LP coming in off of the Atlantic, which is a far cry from yesterdays model run. This just shows you how even predicting a white Christmas with 8 days to go is impossible. The best we can hope for is waiting til Monday to see what kind of air mass, whether cold or warm will be over the UK. If you have viewed GFS today, you'll see that there is potential for a few pretty potent storms on or around the 23rd and 29th, so there could easily be another thread. However, that time frame very much is FI just now.

What i will say though is the prospects of snow on or around Christmas Eve/Day is looking more likely from Manchester north than it has done recently. Glasgow might be a fair shout for a bet since it would probably snow in the potential NNW winds...

Yup looking pretty unsettled, if this weeks out come is anything to go by, we must remember this is subject to change however as of now its looking deeper & longer then the last batch, lets see what happens,

I really really wouldn't like to have a guess as what the weather may hold for christmas day, maybe in a couple more days id through down a sneaky bet down in the bookies

reply to post by jrmcleod


Oh no, Oh no, Oh no!!!
Not Christmas Day, Not Manchester! I have to head to Cheltenham Christmas morning for Christmas dinner with my girls!!...Please keep us informed!
Rainbows
Jane

So, I have been looking at this thread and saw 135 mph thats as strong as Cat 3 hurrican. My question is were there ever 135 mph sustained winds?

reply to post by Doublemint


I dont think so.

Though I am looking out at the Atlantic Ocean and for the last few hours dark, miserable (almost snow storm) clouds are forming.

I spotted the gritters out gritting the roads.

Personally, I think we will get a white Christmas here in Ireland, I dont know about England though.

reply to post by angelchemuel


I'm pretty confident there'll be no snow down here - so as long as it's not too bad in Manchester you'l be fine, heading in to milder climes!

reply to post by Doublemint


Sustained winds of 130mph would be almost Cat 4 - but I don't think anyone was seriously suggesting such speeds at low levels from the predicted storms this week.

The storm last week that hit Scotland produced low level gusts in excess of 100mph and, had the latest one developed as some models had initially predicted, gusts in excess of that - maybe even to 130mph - were perhaps just about possible (the highest low level gust ever recorded in Britain was 146mph). Gust in excess of 130mph were recorded today in Europe (though not at low level).

Sustained wind speeds in excess of 70mph (equivalent to a Cat 1 hurricane) are very rare in Britain at low level, occasionally being experienced in the north of Scotland.

reply to post by jrmcleod
Hello again McLeod, as I & others have said in previous posts, great thread. The best thing we can do with numptee's that are trolling and trying to be insulting and abusive is ignore the small minded, petty, ignorant, under developed, blind w*****'s. Rant over sorry to start a wee bit off topic there (takes hat off & bows in an apologetic and thankful manner)

On topic: You will know my approximate location from my past posts (South West Cumbria, for those who have not) & where I am now there is still around an inch & a half of snow settled on the ground. When we first noticed it was snowing we went outside to get a better look. The flakes were massive, real big flakes, I should of taken a short video clip but got all excited & began SMS messaging various relatives & friends to warn them. It is unusual for snow to settle here so quick and deep so fast because of the high salt content in the area. I then checked that the elderly lady not far away needed nothing from the shop before I set about my daily business.

I am home again now and the white, fluffy, cold, nice but dangerous stuff is still on the grassed areas & roofs ect with plenty of that nasty chemical filled sleet in the gutters and about the roads. It is that cold now that when I being trying to coax Freud into a longer walk to be able to photograph fields that are untouched & full of snow he is refusing, halts, sits and then pulls me in the direction of where we are living

As much as I really like the looks on all the kids faces and the fact it gets them out & away from their Z-Boxes, PT4's ect I have unfortunately developed bad bones this year, sad really as I am only 31 but must have sped the process along with the work I did & the training I have done for the past 12 or so years (read my profile if you'd like to know a little more) This cold is making day to day things outside real hard to do and the heating inside our abode is on high.

I was in the area I am in now in the year of 1995 as a teenager, when it had snowed real bad, it took two friends & I one hour and forty-five or so minutes to walk a mile and a half into the shopping precinct. That was real bad, if I remember the precursor to it began almost as this episode has begun. I hope and pray that a situation such as that does not develop again as too many of the elderly around the country are afraid to put the heating or fire on due to the expense.

Please if you know an elderly person, or even if you do not know them personally, offer them your hand in friendship & ask them if they are ok or need help in anyway whatsoever. Even helping somebody over a road or giving them a kind word or a smile is enough to brighten a lonely persons day. That is what has riled me about this country recently, some people do not care to interact with strangers but even a smile and polite hello could make someone's day. Along with world peace, the starving to be fed & homeless (some suffering PTSD from serving our Countries) to be housed, I am asking for the youth to wake up and smell the coffee this Christmas.

Sorry to go off topic there again, I am not a devout anything as some of you will know but I am asking the spiritual PTB to help speed the global awakening along. Oh I am also asking them; please do not make it snow as bad as it did in 95 on our part of this Island.

This thread is great, it has been correct for the area I am in down the line, not one mistake at all. Thank you again McLeod (I hope that is you Connor..

Thanks too to all my fellow ATS members that contribute to this site in a respectful and positive manner Yes the amount of trolls has taken an increase this past year, as have other types of w***** but we can ignore them, correct them or report them to a mod for spoiling our site. I wonder if a global awakening has begun as I & others feel it has, then that is maybe why people like that are drawn to here but just do not understand or are afraid to make the last step and open their eyes when they get here.

Let us forgive them for they do not know, they may be blind but their eyes will be opened.

Peace, love, good vibes & good will to all, Merry Christmas & Happy Holidays my friends.