Advanced Warning of Double Major Storms For UK Next Week - In Depth Analysis (Be Prepared)

reply to post by theguygeeza


Why are you worried about Sellafield? If it's damage caused by wind, don't panic, it would take a lot more than this to even raise safety eyebrows on site.

There is more chance of something happening through negligence than a storm. (and given the current record, that's a high probability lol.)

reply to post by starchild10


Brilliant, fingers crossed and thanks for the info

Used to live up in the Penines myself, near Howarth (near the windmills). I definitely do not miss that bloody horizontal rain! Played football regularly and let me tell you, it is no fun playing on a hill with horizontal rain and a howling gale - and that is a calm day!

Originally posted by Flavian
reply to post by starchild10

 

Brilliant, fingers crossed and thanks for the info

Used to live up in the Penines myself, near Howarth (near the windmills). I definitely do not miss that bloody horizontal rain! Played football regularly and let me tell you, it is no fun playing on a hill with horizontal rain and a howling gale - and that is a calm day!

I am just outside Stanbury so yes we get that old Bronte weather hereabouts!

Thanks everyone for the great reports and for keeping us all up to date on the storms, here in the Midwest US we have some pretty strong winds today, just wondering if the may contribute to more headed your way in the coming days?

Anyway, just wanted to thank everyone for all you do.

Originally posted by jrmcleod
My personal opinion is a mixed scenario of 2 possible outcomes.

1. The Azores high stretches and holds on over the UK until after Christmas giving the south of the UK one of, if not the, mildest Christmas on record. Possibly even up to the 15oC mark for the channel islands. (Bad Outcome)

2. The Azores high is displaced by any LP's traveling east over the next 10 days bringing an increased risk of snowfall to the UK from NW streamers (Good outcome)

I don't really know which of the outcomes will come to fruition but one thing is for sure...one of those outcomes will be accurate...but which one?

I've been following the Christmas Day output from GFS over the past few days and there's pretty good consistency on the Azores high being near or over at least southern parts of Britain.

One other possiblity though is that we see a spell of foggy weather - so neither green nor white; just grey!

At this stage I'm not expecting snow outside of the Highlands. Friday morning though is another matter with growing confidence on the track this coming low will take. Might even see some sleet here in Evesham!!!

reply to post by jrmcleod


I am wondering why you showed the storm over the seven estuary? Is this the path you seem to be expecting over the rest? The BBC, met office etc, are all completely unaware of whether it is going to go through the channel or up further... bringing "trouble to the south" to quote the weather man.

In seems you have been correct with most of these weather situations before. What is your gut feeling?

reply to post by lbuzzb


Hedging my bets at the moment but i have a "gut" feeling from previous LP's that we've had that they seem to track that little bit further north than projected. I personally see it tracking between the Severn Estuary and the South Coast of England. I just can't see it being as far south as some models put it i.e. over north France.

As for snow potential. I think unless the air temp is below 1oC, any snow that falls will be wet and wont stick. Its quite marginal in terms of upper air temperatures so anywhere with elevation could be in for a fair amount of snow i.e. Cotswolds or Cambrian Mts in Wales

reply to post by Essan


Keep an eye on my two girls at Uni in Cheltenham please Essan.


Rainbows
Jane

reply to post by Essan


Indeed,

I just cant help but lean to a strong NNW'rly flow though. Looking at the models, i just cant see the Azores High hold on over the UK. The Atlantic IMO is too active and i think it'll be displaced rather quickly. I can see many Western area's being white on Christmas Eve/Day and some NNW'rly wind exposed East Coastal areas getting in on the action too.

Just my thoughts! Will know nearer the time though

reply to post by angelchemuel


Random fact: I grew up in Cheltenham

Yup i have to agree with the OP on the track of this storm come thurs/fri

After looking at all the models, current, and possible paths in the run up, and taking into account the tracks of similar storm in the past,

So if i was a betting man, which i'm not

Id probably whack a bet that it was going to come in past Southern Ireland /Coastline, track over Wales, South Wales, and then track over Southern England to then exit England around Norfolk/The Wash, to then track all the way up Inbetween Denmark & Norway, basically what the NAE is showing but more north

Please see below a MetO Video update

reply to post by BRITWARRIOR


Please see below my rudimentary "paint job" of where i think the 2 main areas of concern will be during Late Thurs/Friday

How spooky is this...wonder if the MetO have someone subscribed to this thread....lol

reply to post by Suspiria


What height are you above Sea Level?

2nd

reply to post by jrmcleod

About 956 feet above sea level.
Met office obviously hates me thus far.

Originally posted by jrmcleod
reply to post by BRITWARRIOR

 

Please see below my rudimentary "paint job" of where i think the 2 main areas of concern will be during Late Thurs/Friday

Yep that's pretty much along the lines of what i was thinking, if i was to have a guess based on all models and past events id track it slightly north a hundred miles or so, Just a hunch... with the center of the LP tracking up the Seven instead, come tomorrow 15:00, if it starts to drop south then i guess my bets dead in the water, if it does tho, We would no doubt see some high winds & server gales for the South Coast again & Snow, some heavy accumulations over the downs/higher ground,

So basically something like this...

img846.imageshack.us...


So enters up the Seven and Exits Norfolk by "The Wash", id put it 50-100miles north of MetO first possible track, i was really surprised to see that just now actually, second possible track to be honest looks exactly like mine and the first like yours LOL

Abit of a WTF moment there for me

reply to post by theguygeeza


just had a word with wifey and she still insists the wind cycle was very unusual. i'll keep my ears unmuffled later on when i'm out.
i'm not too sure about the installations you mentioned. i don't think they'll come down in the wind. regarding the hydraulic fracturing, yes, there are more developements on that one.

www.abovetopsecret.com...

any replies from the authorities on that matter may well be wind related!

f

It's going to go right over me lovely.