Russia threatens to block NATO routes

Originally posted by Vitchilo
Good. America needs to stop their crap and hopefully Russia forces NATO to get the hell out of Afghanistan. That's what Afghans want, that's what Americans want, that's what Pakistanis want... that's what everyone wants except the warmongers... Screw the warmongers.

You are aware that Russia held siege over Afghanistan for nearly a decade? Sorry just had to ask.

In the meantime I wish the Obama Administration particularly Clinton would shut the F up and stop with all this posturing crap.

reply to post by TheEnlightenedOne


I feel the same way. There's something in me that has the desire for a war, more-so a war withing the United States. We have invaded other countries enough. Sometimes only destruction can fix what is broken.

Originally posted by maloy
And why do you think Russia can't act on its threats?

I am not saying that they cannot act on their threat, I am saying that they will not act on their threat. Russia has made threats before and have not done anything. I do not really see how blocking cargo from going into Afghanistan will make NATO change its mind about deploying in and around Afghanistan.

Originally posted by iamconcerned
reply to post by Drunkenparrot

 

So bascially it's now Russia's turn to watch the U.S overspend on defense till it goes bankrupt (excuse me already is bankrupt). History is such a b*tch. Also, perhaps you could study up on asymmetric warfare. The colonists in America sure did, so did Vietnam and Afghanistan.

I am very well versed in military history, more so than many on these boards who repeat tired euphemisms and feel they have contributed something of weight to the discussion.

To begin, the U.S. currently spends 4.7% of its GDP on defense, roughly on par with Russia's current 4.3% expenditure and not remotely comparable to the 22% of the Soviet Union shortly before its dissolution.

Keep in mind that is 4.7% of the GDP while simultaneously spending more on defense than the next 7 countries combined.

That is another one of the modest advantages enjoyed by a true economic superpower.

I think all of the history students following this thread can afford to worry less and study more, forced U.S. bankruptcy as a consequence of maintaining insanely high percentages of military spending is nowhere to be found in the cards.

What do you think you know about asymmetric warfare and how it applies to the modern battlefield?

The American Revolution? Certainly, you had a deeply entrenched and highly motivated unconventional force who were committed for the duration.

The colonists played to their own strengths while circumventing the enemies and eventually bled the crown to the point that the British claims over the colonies were no longer economically sound which implored the Empire to cut its losses and seek resolution through diplomacy.

Vietnam huh?

Vietnam is referenced ad nauseum as the textbook application of a successful asymmetric guerilla warfare campaign by the history channel crowd that as usual, couldn't be any more incorrect.

Very briefly, U.S. military involvement in Indochina was an example of what happens when a military power with essentially infinite resources loses the context of the purpose of war and the military as a political tool.

U.S. military involvement in S.E. Asia ended January 27, 1973 with the signing of the Paris Peace Accords, of which the North Vietnamese were more than eager signatories.

In Dec of 1972 the United States grew weary of stalled peace negotiations and issued an ultimatum that they unfortunately (for the Democratic Republic of Vietnam) chose to ignore.

What followed was the largest conventional bombing raids the world had seen since the 2nd world war and absolute devastation for the North.

"The Christmas bombings" as they were dubbed by the press saw the large scale strategic employment of the B-52's , in short Richard Nixon tasked the Strategic Air Command to do their job for the first time since the beginning of open hostilities in 1965.

The B-52's laid waste to the entire Northern infrastructure, they bombed the power-plants and factories, they mined Haiphong harbor essentially ending Soviet resupply. After the 5th day the North Vietnamese Air Force and Surface to Air defenses had ceased to exist defaulting total air superiority to the U.S.

In short,12 days of unrestricted strategic bombing brought the DRV to their knees and brought favorable peace terms for Indochina to the Nixon White House with the promise that unrestricted bombing would resume if the North pursued any further aggressions against the South.

Two and a half years later, all U.S. forces have been drawn down and sent home leaving only a token diplomatic contingent of Marines, the leadership in Hanoi (correctly) judged American resolve for any escalation of hostilities to be unacceptable. Taking advantage of domestic political turmoil, the NVA launched a conventional assault into Southern Vietnam.

President Gerald Ford in a televised speech on April 23rd 1975 declared an end to all U.S. aid to South Vietnam.

On April 29th Saigon fell and an estimated half million men,woman and children were butchered by the rampaging NVA

....and the rest is history.

The point being, when U.S. military doctrine was finally correctly applied by the strategists pulling the strings from dark cubbie holes in the Pentagon, North Vietnam was asymmetrically bombed into the stone-age over a very brief and brutal 12 days.

How about Afghanistan? Historically a quagmire for the greatest Armies the world has known and bane of the once mighty Soviet Military.

Whether the U.S. story in Afghanistan will be considered a success or failure is still to be decided. U.S. forces have outlasted the failed Soviet occupation and have been inarguably more successful in developing the Afghani infrastructure than the failed butchery of desperate Soviet terror tactics aimed at children and innocents.

Afghanistan is a mess from any westerners perspective however, oddly enough, most Afghan civilians have never seen a time more prosperous than the net result of the billions of USD in aid being poured into what is essentially a tribal collective of wavering political allegiances.

Personally, I believe that the current patchwork of tribal authority is sufficiently alien to defy any of the current attempts at westernization although only time will tell.

Without a doubt, the U.S. occupation has done miracles for relieving the innocents among the population of two thousand years of human rights violations.

Regardless of individual feelings about the motivations for the war, most can agree that reigning in the Taliban was a godsend to the common folks of the region.

Lastly, who is the worlds most experienced, best trained and most efficient asymmetrical warfare operators on the modern battlefield? Any guesses?

Hands down the U.S. military.

U.S. forces have been aggressively involved in everything from counter insurgency to sustained, high intensity Urban assault type combat for nearly 20 continuous years of bloody trial and error across 5 continents.

Take a substantial portion of the "black" part of the military budget totaling billions of dollars in training, technology and equipment.

Combined with a human element who statistically enjoys an advantage with more current field experience than any other standing army and you are left with an exceptionally lethal and effective soldier tailor suited to the type of warfare that blurs the lines such as the U.S. and her allies are currently tasked with engaging in the here and now.

Feel free to fact check any part of the above text. Unlike some, I remember the Vietnam war well and value both truth and fact above opinion and supposition.

No matter how uncomfortable that truth may be...

reply to post by Drunkenparrot


real GDP is 6.7-7.2 trillion.Nominal GDP is inflated due to financial speculationary activity and inflation.Essentially around 15-20% of GDP is being spent on defence.

It's come to this. Obama's lack of leadership and utter failure to guide the United States as the Super-Power of the world has led us here.

The Taliban and Al Qaeda are among the most scrappy and resourceful fighters around. Opportunist would be an understatement to my understanding. The opportunity wouldn't be lost on them. Not for a SECOND. Every round fired is one round closer to going dry and being over-run, at every damned outpost in that nation. It wouldn't even take long..think about that.

If they felt brave enough to pull a Tet style offensive push knowing that they had a few days or even a week of NO re-supply from outside the country which isn't fighting all the way in and out just to get there, they'd have an orgasm and throw every damned thing they have available into it.

Russia just rang a bell they can never really UNring by ever even saying this in a public way. Now the threat is hanging out there as a subtext on any major issue ..Iran for example...that they feel real strongly about. We screw them? Fine....They smile...as they screw 10's of thousands of U.S. troops by simply closing airspace and land routes. Which 'stan nation will actually tell Moscow to go pound sand when Obama is the man they'd be doing it with the hope of support down the line from?

Russia needs to do nothing. Literally...nothing, as in NOT giving clearances and NOT permitting their client states to give clearance. Pakistan doesn't need more than a bad mood to close their airspace AND land routes right at the moment.

Time to leave...and leave real fast, I'm thinking. Afghanistan is over and it's now got the potential to become the largest disaster in modern military history.

Yeah..The U.S. Military has been fighting for years...with a constant rotation of new blood and fresh recruits in and out the whole time. Afghanistan and Pakistan are full of the SAME fighters who've been fighting over 30 years now. No rotations for them...same men learning all the time just to live this long. We don't want to fight these people on anything like equal terms..and Russia's threat could lead to that situation.

With Pakistan already shutting down their borders, the US finds itself in an even bigger mess. The only surprising thing to me is that it took so long in coming. Animosity is high in all the countries involved, so I had honestly thought a move like this would have happened about 2-5 years ago.

As a Canadian I can tell you that very few of my countrymen, other than those in the armed forces, want to see their brothers and sisters fighting overseas. If this brings them home, great. The more likely scenario, of course, is some sort of pissing contest in Eurasia, and no one will win that, except some rich people living in vaults underground.

reply to post by Drunkenparrot


Very nice post,informative and factulal

Originally posted by ludwigvonmises003
reply to post by Drunkenparrot

 

real GDP is 6.7-7.2 trillion.Nominal GDP is inflated due to financial speculationary activity and inflation.Essentially around 15-20% of GDP is being spent on defence.

Source?

Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) is an independent international institute dedicated to research into conflict, armaments, arms control and disarmament. Established in 1966, SIPRI provides data, analysis and recommendations, based on open source, to policymakers, researchers, media and the interested public.

(Scroll Photo)

Stockholm International Peace Research Institute 2011

All this information regarding the Russian Federation opens up a lot of dialogue, but regardless is just opinion,

Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the country was suffering. My Grandmother stood in bread lines for bread and soup. Violence and corruption was peaking. Where is the Russian Federation today? Well quite frankly, in a great position in large thanks to Putin. Putin revived the economy. Putin spear headed Russia into prosperity and now the Russian Federation is one of a few countries economically still rising... look up BRICS.

Medvedev is a more quiet character. The fact that he is threatening a new arms race and instructing the Defense Ministry to expedite military preparation should not be taken lightly by NATO.

Fear Mongering is a bad term. Its more like taking care of business and watching out for the well fare of his own people, something we should be taking notes on here in america, but too bad our White House is full of different agendas.

If we do not have current military spending from Russia as of today, then the information is already out dated! Do we have any idea what kind of construction, foreign business, military expenditures, and other plans going on on Russian soil? Well, Moscow is being DOUBLED in size as we speak in a massive construction project... for what kicks?

I believe there is a lot of biased opinion about Russia. What happened in the past was noted, but who will be prepared for the future? The geo-political landscape is changing. And here we are with News of supply routes in danger for USA. Kalingrad missile defense systems built to keep an eye on Euro Missile defense. The formation of the Eurasian Union has great implications too. What is going on?

What i see here is a country that will only grow stronger. Our actions today will pave the way for the alliances of the future. And yet, Medvedev has voiced that the doors to negotiations are still open. The Russian Federation is not threatening, or fear mongering... she maintains open dialogue and has her own national security concerns.

Also, lets remember the resilience of the Russian people. The military was weak during the invasion from Hitler, and likewise Napoleon. The Russian winter does not get all the credit here.

Comparative to those times, today's Russia is much stronger. I can only imagine how much of a better place the world would be if USA really cooperated with Russia. The global influence of such a true alliance would be very constructive to tackle our future endeavors... not to mention how great it would be to have the perfect mediator between USA and China.

All in all, i am proud to see the preparations the Russian Federation is taking. There is a 99% dissaproval rating of our Congress here at home. Is it all that really surprising to see President Medvedev questioning our actions and intentions? To be fair, i don't blame him. Come March time, everything will get a lot more serious when Putin steps in for his third term. Medvedev has his door open for dialogue NOW. Putin... well impulsive Putin wont F*** around.

reply to post by adev0727


Excellent post!

reply to post by Drunkenparrot


Worked at KPMG .In 2009 we estimated this considering the BLS does not give proper inflation figure www.dagongcredit.com...
www.hyperinflation-us.com...

Dagong credit agency has a estimate of 5 trillion$ real GDP lower estimate than what the team I worked with gave me .Europac gave estimate of 7.8 trillion$.

Also you can check Rosenberg's work on this too.

www.creditwritedowns.com...

reply to post by ludwigvonmises003


Thank you for the information.

I look forward to reading an opposing opinion (always with an open mind )

reply to post by Drunkenparrot


I appreciate your expertise on military history, and even enjoyed reading it, although we have different interpretations of outcome, but you are correct on so many points it's not worth refuting the few we disagree on. Your key statement for me was 'forced U.S. bankruptcy as a consequence of maintaining insanely high percentages of military spending is nowhere to be found in the cards.' The U.S. had a near death experience in 2008, we did almost lose it, and spent 16 trillion (only found out about by a forced audit) in 6 months to avert a bankruptcy and derivatives meltdown. We are about to get downgraded again. 37 large global banks were downgraded just today. This is with real 10% inflation when using 1980 math, and 23% unemployment when using 1980 math. I realize everyone thinks the #storm isn't coming their way, but I have my doubts. European Libor is at levels that American Libor was at in late 2008. We have zero % interest rates, and have nothing left to fight the next stage of the recession. You mentioned Vietnam and Afghanistan have/had a motivated force. You think a bunch of new recruits from Castro. St. have what it takes to fight the Russians on their home turf in the middle of winter? Sure, OK. We'll have to just disagree on that. I think after a few moskit/sunburns hit their targets, a lot of stock valuations for american warfare companies are going to slide. By billions of dollars. This is irregardless of how bad the Russians are 'losing'. You don't actually plan to occupy Russia, do you? It's three times bigger than the United States. Just because you can destroy Moscow, then what? You'll need a draft to occupy Russia. And then America won't fight your wars anymore since it's now their kids in the scope. Or is a bunch of Somalian NATO forces going to do the occupying for us? Or, I know, Rumsfeld told us we will be greeted as liberators! How is Europe going to survive with no gas or oil while Russia fights us, you don't think they will actually help, not with their populations freezing? Do you think you'll be cake walking this? This will take many years. Without Russian oil gas goes to 10$ a gallon fast, which means goodbye everyone pretty much. People haven't thought this through very well.

reply to post by alchemist2012


Thanks for the heads up Alchemist, mandatory bump.
This is where the Vlad v. Dimi Show takes an unsettling harmonious tone.
Having both of those guys on the same page is automatically giving some
political traction to how bad they're getting stepped on by the A&E oligarchs.
This "three seats of Western power" SHOULD get their NATOs a nice dose
of cold water, if they've any sense at all. But I'm not Dennis, I'm usually wrong.

Hope for everybody's sake the psychos who dress funny get the idea before
the fire in the ashtray they're playing with gets to flame their escape tunnels:
mainly because we the US people seem the only ones around completely
left above ground.
China, Russia, and quite a few other prinicipalities have made plans for at
least some of their "regular guys and gals" to dig in deep in case of a major
hit. It tells you something about the Americans' big boys looking out for you
and keeping you safe. Watch "The Day After"-- and check out how well the
ground floor and basement(s) of a concrete office building stave off a fifteen
or so megaton air burst. Hey Linda gotta spare tube of that suncreen, sweetie

Russia has not improved much from1990s. It is just the oil prices that are keeping them afloat. In early 2000s, it took Oil at $70 per barrel to keep Russian economy balanced. Now the figure is $125 per barrel. There is no diversification to energy revenues in the economy as 60% of Russian economy is dependent on energy revenues today. Russian population is decreasing fast as other than the top oligarchs and other 5%, ordinary Russians are just scraping by.

The performance of Russians in Georgians wars was something of a joke for even a regional power. Generals were communicating via cell phones instead of secured radios and intelligence failures led whole group of tanks into a open field only to be shot up. Russians could not even jam their own Buk-M1 anti aircraft missiles and hence lost a big Tu-22 and 5 other fighter planes.

Stratfor says Russia has another 20 years of time to do something to maintain where they are. Once alternatives to energy are found for cars and industries, Russian economy does not have much to look forward to unless they diversify.

The problem is not that Cold War II is around the corner. It is not, because Russians cannot afford it. The main problem is Cold War I never ended from the side of US/NATO and hence eastward expansion, attacking Russian allies like Iraq and Libya and now missile shield mess. Putin once mentioned that 'US has some evil desire to attack the own Russian land and resources' and Russians have to be careful that it does not happen.

Plain and simple the USA's troops are overall better trained than any other army in the world... Our airforce is unmatched... our navy has the ability to defend us by itself if needed >.<

Russia has some old airforce fighters... troops arent trained as well... their navy is lacking any real powerr

reply to post by trentyh


At this phase of all the news thats been popping up i think that the U S more than likley has a new super weapon that may make Nuclear seem like a hand grenade The money has to be going somewhere right.

reply to post by trentyh


At this phase of all the news thats been popping up i think that the U S more than likley has a new super weapon that may make Nuclear seem like a hand grenade The money has to be going somewhere right.

reply to post by Drunkenparrot

Nice post, thanks for that.