Could the 6.4 quake (9/9/11) in Vancouver be a foreshock to a mega quake?

Originally posted by upgrayeddc310t
reply to post by Open2Truth

 

Right on, I'm sure she knows quite a bit, I mean it looks like she did a lot of investigation for just this thread alone, I haven't seen any of her other threads.
I just feel whenever I see a thread similar to this one (predicting or warning of some upcoming event based on whatever), guess what...like 99.9% of the time nothing comes of it.
It's like when Nostradamus types make vague predictions, and then something happens and they are like "I predicted that!!!!"
It is good to be warned of such events though, had I not stumbled on this thread today I wouldn't have even known of this earthquake.
But when the USGS or some other really smart guy/gal with credentials tells me there is going to be a big earthquake, then I'll be scared. (in-before "well you wouldn't ever be aware of such an event because TPTB would never let that info out", that's a whole other discussion lol).
Also, as I understand it, earthquakes are kinda hard to predict.
But yes, thank you WC for bringing me some new info.

There have been several negative comments on here I could respond to, but others have already addressed them and I really think it detracts from the thread. Your posts are perhaps the only ones authored in such a fashion that lend to a good discussion. I appreciate your input and you DO bring up good points, some of which I agree with.

First I want to say that in no way did I mean this thread as a prediction to a large quake. I think some of the other posts about predictions muddies the water and may change the tone for some readers to then think I am the one doing the predicting. I'd like to ask some of the other posters to not bring those predictions into this mix. There ARE a lot of kooks out there and I really don't want to talk about them here (I'm not referring to tmiddlebrooks tho...i think that is most interesting in relation to this quake )

Second....I really want to stress that I am NOT a professional geologist in ANY way. I had basic geology in college and everything else is based on 15 yrs of observation and self-taught skills at pouring through information (Puterman is still constantly teaching me things!!!! ) I have also lived in Washington state for almost all of my near 40 yrs so there IS a certain amount of instinct involved that just comes from being in tune with your natural environment.

Thirdly....My original OP was not soley based on the lack of after-shocks, although that is what most alarmed me originally. I am VERY relieved to have reports and finally some seismos of some shocks, but it certainly doesn't mean there isn't cany continued risk another, larger quake. Or that this quake, if NOT on the subduction zone COULD trigger one there. The same geologists quoted as saying this quake came from another region gave that warning...although minimal, it is there and given the potential outcome I think it prudent to know of the risk.



All one has to do is go back over the data of the Japan quake. The were quakes in between the 7.3 and the 9.1

I pride myself most in looking at the big picture and recognizing cause and affect. I am NOT making a prediction. I am only saying that this quake is most worthy of attention and we need to be prudent and if NOTHING else, be prepared. Everyone living in this region should already be....but as I mentioned in my OP one my friends wasn't but because of this quake is now taking the first steps of awareness and preparedness.

Again....thank you for your input, please stick around. I'll second Putermans post, that it would be wonderful to have another geologist on the boards if you could talk her into it!!!


OH....BYW. While I was catching up on my reading, there was a 3.2 quake off the coast of Oregon:

Magnitude 3.2
Date-Time Saturday, September 10, 2011 at 16:58:55 UTC
Saturday, September 10, 2011 at 08:58:55 AM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones

Location 43.538°N, 127.037°W
Depth 10 km (6.2 miles)
Region OFF THE COAST OF OREGON
Distances 229 km (142 miles) W of Coos Bay, Oregon
268 km (166 miles) WSW of Newport, Oregon
279 km (173 miles) NW of Brookings, Oregon
356 km (221 miles) WSW of SALEM, Oregon

Location Uncertainty horizontal +/- 33.2 km (20.6 miles); depth +/- 3.1 km (1.9 miles)
Parameters NST= 98, Nph= 98, Dmin=232.7 km, Rmss=0.92 sec, Gp=248°,
M-type=local magnitude (ML), Version=8
Source Magnitude: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
Location: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)

Event ID usc0005s6k

source


Certainly nothing to write home about, but again we always need to be looking at the big picture.

I checkout earthquakes everyday via USGS, et al. When the 6.4 or 6.7 hit off the west coast of Vancouver Island, major activity also occurred at Yellowstone. The USGS has been accused of removing or reducing scale values at Yellowstone to downplay events in the area. But, if you monitor the seismic station graphs they usually provide a better source of information.
Check it out yourself at: www.isthisthingon.org... (set date=Sept 9/11)

I guess no one reads my posts but there have been several dozen aftershocks up to 4.9. They are not being recorded but our local paper says so:

There were several dozen aftershocks after the 12:42 p.m. quake, the largest of which measured 4.9, said seismologist John Cassidy of Natural Resources Canada. Read more: www.theprovince.com...

SOOOOOOO how do we find out what is going on if none are being recorded. maybe i will try contacting this John Cassidy of Natural Resources Canada.

reply to post by Frank Dinkle


That would be great, if you could. I know that most people are not going to read this whole thread now because it is just too big, but several of us have talked about the subsequent quakes now that seemed to begin a few hours after the quake. No one is denying them, but you probably haven't seen those posts.

While it is a relief to me, it by no means gives the all-clear. We just need to be watchfull and educated about the risks of this area. Odds are, this will lead to nothing. But even if there is a .01% chance of a 9+ mag quake occuring......I think that's enough to make me watch. Most people don't understand the scope or magnitude of what would happen. Destruction beyond our imagination. Unfortunately, most of the people living in the epicenter of all of it are clueless.

reply to post by westcoast


Ah, you are quite the "Quaker"! I'm going to start monitoring your threads, because you do a lot of searching and putting together sources so I can just be lazy and get all the info other people have gathered haha.
You are right, that would be SCARY if there were no aftershocks...that would be a really big pre-quake.
I'll have to look into what you mentioned about quakes in one area triggering quakes in another, that's a really interesting (and not good for us in earthquake-prone areas) piece of information.
And hey, if it weren't for people, such as yourself, getting the info and posting it on ATS most people (such as myself) wouldn't even know about half the earthquakes that happen because if it didn't cause damage it ain't going to be on the news!
I know I should probably check in on the USGS site and other Seismology sites every now and then since moving to CA, I just guess I'm not in the habit of it, but I should be.
The only earthquake I have ever felt was when we lived in Indiana. It was the one that happened somewhere in the Midwest (don't recall where). It was like 5 AM or something early like that, it was enough of a bump that it woke me up, then I went back to sleep. It was interesting, to say the least!

To all of you that are and have followed disaster threads such as this, there is but one way of thinking that really should make sense.
Where are you located and what do you need to do, to take care of yourself and your family thru the kinds of disasters that have,could and will happen in your area. All of us know the types of adversity we will have to contend with.
If you are ready for it. There is no reason to keep worrying about it. Sooner or later it will happen. Get your act together and get ready. At least that way, someone won't say to you. "I tried to tell ya"

Originally posted by collietta
West coast,
I love your threads and your well thought out hypotheses.

Does this quake tie into your theory of the Cascadia fault extending into the Sierra Nevada and beyond?

What about the theory of the magma chambers being bigger than originally thought? (I believe you were the author on the thread that tied all our volcanoes and Yellowstone together.)

I value you and other ATS members experience with the seismographs and geology. Since there is a possibility that this quake may be a fore shock to a bigger one (since it seems to be our turn), how likely would one of our volcanoes erupt during a mega quake?
Living in Tacoma, I'm especially concerned with Mt. Rainier.

Hi there!! Since you are asking my pointed question, I want to make sure to answer them!!

I'm glad you enjoy my threads! Even though odds are high I may be totally wrong I am a strong believer that the only way we ever get to the truth is to ask the "what if" questions. As Puterman said, the whole Cascadian subduction zone info 'on the books' is educated guess work. It keeps changing too, so I see nothing wrong with trying to come up with different scenarios. Even if partially correct, it could lead to better awareness!

As to whether this quake ties into my subduction zone theory...it is too isolated an event to say one way or another. I think that if we were to see a transfer of energy along the zone to the south (beyond with the excepted southern end is...) than it may be another point to add to my list. One could argue those quakes down in the Gulf of California were just that....but again, something to make note of but to singular to say for sure.

Yes, I am the one that authored the thread (there are probably others out there too though) about the suspected magma chamber under Washington state. That one was not my theory, but based on a scientific paper by professional geologists. Some belive it, some do not. I keep seeing more evidence of it...but this particular quake is not one of them. The magma chamber ties more into the volcanic activity of the region....but would certainly come into play during a mega-quake, which brings me to your last question about the volcanos.

YES, most definately, we would need to be concerned about ALL the volcanos in the event of a mega-thrust quake. These volcanos were formed by this mechanism (subduction zone) so any major movement/displacement would have the potential of affecting one or all of them: Baker, Glacer Peak, Raineer, helens, Adams, Hood......and probably some others we do and do not know about.

Lahars are a major concern. Know if you live in an area at risk. I just found out last year that my house is on TOP of a lahar from Glacier peaks last erruption. I had no clue that volcano was even there. I am pretty much in between Baker and Glacier...but far enough from the coast that I shouldn't have to worry about a tsunami....but I WOULD have to worry about localized flooding because of it. I am very, very near the Skagit river, which empties into Puget Sound so it could back up and cause horrendous flooding in my neighborhood. Thankfully, my house is also raised 6 ft so it would give me a little bit of help.

Anyways....good questions. I hope this is the end of it, and it will just be another large quake to look at and study and nothing more. I think there will be a whole lot of scientif value at the correlation between it and the early ETS event. I think I'll write the geologist in charge of that and ask for their opinion on it!

I have now seen at leat four shocks rolling across in the past half-hour or so. I don't know if that is a good thing or not. Speeding up or just finally doing what we would expect??? ugh...hate the guess-work.

If Puterman or Muzzy or anyone else that's good at capturing and looking at these seismos...got an opinion?

hmmmm.....as i type this they are now starting to 'double-tap'. My quake watcher friends know what I am talking about. Yes....this is concerning me. I am trying to find a station I can link that shows this, but am having a hard time finding one!! I'll take a screen-shot...hold on a sec.

ETA: Here we go:
(scroll to the right....and keep in mind that this is a ways from the epicenter)



The two prior to that were about 8 and 15 microns/sec....there were two others in between also...

reply to post by upgrayeddc310t


There is quite a bit of information scattered between a few different threads on the topic of remote triggering of earthquakes due to seismic waves from areas far removed from the triggered quake.

Take a look at the thread CLPrime and myself linked, the beginning of which can be found here, and read the first 5 pages or so.

You can skip the middle few pages where a lot of discussion centers around he thread being tossed in the hoax bin (it's still an active thread) and you can begin again around this post and pay special attention to any posts and documents linked by CLPrime and myself (not to toot my own horn or anything, but I feel I have contributed in an at least partiall substantial manner) regarding the topic.

I also have a thread that grew out of the above linked thread in my signature regarding the methodologies of earthquake prediction which centers around several methods and programs that were discovered in the process of researching the tmiddlebrook posts which may be of interest as well.

And for anyone thinking that earthquake prediction is a waste of time, you might want to check my thread out as well because we've (several people looking into this) found that groups such as JPL, NASA, UC Berkley, Washington State University, Caltech, the Dept of Homeland Security, the US Congress, and a host of others are actively pursuing the topic.

reply to post by jadedANDcynical


Thank you for those links. I also want to urge anyone interested (or naysayer) to read up on it. It is not crackpot science, but very real, leading-edge stuff.

Oh....and you most CERTAINLY have contributed a lot to the thread I began...perhaps more than myself! (see my last response to you last post there...freaky)


Okay....three more little quakes since I last posted the screen-shot, so things are definately picking up. Good thing????


ETA....HERE is the station nearest my house. There is some sort of electrical spiking going on. It shows up on other, close SP (short period) stations but not as strong.....just has me wondering in light of JadedAndCynicals link on another thread that discusses electrical/magnetic affects of earthquakes,

Originally posted by MrHappyman989
reply to post by muzzleflash

 

Have you ever used this website mate (link below) It's pretty spot on for Earth events.

hisz.rsoe.hu...

Thank you for the suggestion. I have used that site a few times when it was linked in the past, and I really like the way it is set up. I like the fact it covers various different types of hazards from wildfires to epidemics. I like variety.

However I have a few questions about it. How accurate is it? Does anyone know how in-depth their database is for plotting these events? Do they ignore certain events and focus on others, like for example ignoring quakes under certain size while anything above that size is plotted on the map?

Just some basic questions since I do not know for sure. It does appear to be fairly well built, and I cannot find any quakes that are missed which are notable. I do have a feeling that not everything is listed here, like there is a lack of a radioactive icon for Fukushima, which reasonably should be there for a long long time. But then again I doubt you could list everything on any chart so I can understand and accept these limitations.

Thank you for the link though, I had almost forgotten about that nifty application.

Hey, you can only do so much with the information provided to us by our technology, and the events the earth gives us.

A few more maps to put things in perspective.
A few of the regular quake watchers will know about these quakes from USGS and Canadain earthquake site maps, but heres my take on the area anyway;
All the quakes off the SWCanada page of EQ Canada for the last 5 years (I deleted 9 quakes that had 0 magnitude)

same data but only mag 5+

PDE Catalogue 1973 - present (zoom out to catch o/s Oregon too
Circle Search Earthquakes= 274
Circle Center Point Latitude: 49.340N Longitude: 127.260W
Radius: 800.000 km
Catalog Used: PDE
Date Range: 1973/01/01 to 2010/09/10
Magnitude Range: 5.0 - 10.0
Data Selection: Historical & Preliminary Data

and perhaps the most interesting one, with the 8.1 in 1949
ANSS Catalogue 1898-present (mostly the same quakes as PDE after 1973 but have some different magnitude types, for example the Fraser-Fort George quake in interior BC is shown as 6.0ML on PDE and 5.4mb on ANSS )
catalog=ANSS
start_time=1898/01/01,00:00:00
end_time=2011/09/10,00:00:00
minimum_magnitude=5.0
maximum_magnitude=10
event_type=E
delta=0 km to 800 km from (49.34,-127.26)

if you have Google Earth you can copy and paste the addresses (which are actaully kml files with a short URL) off the Google Maps search box and paste into an empty tab on your browser and it will open in Google Earth when you hit enter .................. load them all and see GE crash

or here the KML files individually
db.tt... ~ all 5 years EQ Canada
db.tt... ~ 5 years mag 5+ EQ Canada
db.tt... ~ USGS PDE 1973 -present
db.tt... ~ ANSS 1898-present

There was recently a quake felt in the Netherlands and Germany.

reply to post by lkpuede


Earthquakes may usually release pressure, but back in July 2004 Northern Vancouver Island had two earthquakes within 4 days of each other with an almost identical epicentre. The first was smaller.
1) 5.8 (barely felt)
2) 6.1 (this one was pretty scary. weird gnawing/thunder sound was heard from below. That's how it felt where I lived on north vancouver island)
community.seattletimes.nwsource.com...

Double post. Sorry

On the one side I do have some dear friends in Vancouver and there are lots of innocent people I wouldn't want to see come to harm.

On the flip side I can't stand the city and the house/condo prices are so stupidly inflated still that it would be hugely ironic if they all just shook to the ground.

Too many people though are predicting a big EQ to happen soon for one to actually happen though ;0

I live in Vancouver and work in Gastown (right by the water) and we definitely felt on the 5th floor of my building, it shook for a good 5-10 seconds. Nothing too scary but we definitely felt it.

I monitor quake activity all the time on earthquakescanada.nrcan.gc.ca...
and this area is shaking all the time, minor shakes obviously, but nonetheless it is moving quite a bit.

I am prepared with an earthquake kit in my house, food, water, first aid,etc, not much else I can do but stay prepared. No need to be scared though, if you live in Vancouver this is a constant news story, I cant even count how many time we have seen and read "Here Comes The Big One", not saying it wont happen but its anybodys guess as to when it will.

Interestingly, if you look at the Canadian earthquake site, the Yukon territory and Quebec seem to get significant earthquakes all the time. The East Coast is never mentioned much when it comes to quakes but that zone is definitely one to watch for, especially in the last month or so.

This is third quake of a good size I have felt here in my life and we never had any aftershocks so I dont think its too big a deal but Im no expert so whaddya gonna do? its a beautiful hot day so Im going for a bike ride!!

reply to post by lkpuede

And thus, on Saturday, sometime between 11 am and 2 pm EDT local time (more likely 1:15-1:45 pm EDT), a massive magnitude 10.0 Mega-Quake will occur.
Its epicenter will be around Federal Square, Petersburg, WV 26847: (38 degrees, 59', 49.92 N. Lat.; 79 degrees, 07',31.01 W. Long).
Corresponding Saturday Quake times in other time zones will be around: 10:30 am, PDT; 17:30 GMT/UTC; and 6:30 pm, BST.

Source; Dr Richard Boylan's 'Official' Web Site.

Seeing as it is now 21:57 BST I guess the Cabal managed to hold on to it a bit longer?