Could the 6.4 quake (9/9/11) in Vancouver be a foreshock to a mega quake?

I know there are already a couple of threads about the quake. I know I just posted this in my Washington State thread....but I am feeling VERY compelled to put out this warning.

Magnitude 6.4

Date-Time

Friday, September 09, 2011 at 19:41:34 UTC
Friday, September 09, 2011 at 12:41:34 PM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones

Location

49.493°N, 126.967°W

Depth

23 km (14.3 miles)

Region

VANCOUVER ISLAND, CANADA REGION

Distances

119 km (73 miles) WNW of Ucluelet, British Columbia, Canada
138 km (85 miles) WSW of Campbell River, British Columbia, Canada
140 km (86 miles) SSE of Port Hardy, British Columbia, Canada
289 km (179 miles) WNW of VICTORIA, British Columbia, Canada

Location Uncertainty

horizontal +/- 11.7 km (7.3 miles); depth +/- 2.8 km (1.7 miles)

Parameters

NST=777, Nph=777, Dmin=121.3 km, Rmss=1.22 sec, Gp= 29°,
M-type="moment" magnitude from initial P wave (tsuboi method) (Mi/Mwp), Version=9

Source

Magnitude: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
Location: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)

Event ID

usc0005rsj

source

Current quake list from USGS

This MAP puts it into perspective. I am about 200 miles from the epicenter...no, I did not feel it.


My greatest concern is that at that depth and location and the FACT that we just completed another ETS (episodic tremor and slip) three months earlier and an atypical event...I believe this quake IS from the cascadian subduction zone, and this there is a VERY good chance it could be a fore-shock.

The great mega quake forecasted for this region will be in the scale of the 9.1 Japan or GREATER



USGS so far has no aftershocks listed in over two hours.

The canadian Seismo site doesn't either, and they post smaller quakes:

2011/09/09 19:41:30 49.34N 127.26W 38.4 6.6Mw 92 km WSW of Gold R.,BC
2011/09/09 15:59:36 49.39N 127.20W 33.6 2.1ML 86 km WSW of Gold R.,BC
2011/09/09 05:52:53 45.88N 67.54W 5.0* 2.0MN 28 km SW from Nackawic,NB

source


With this large of a quake, we should expect a whole BUNCH of aftershocks. The longer we go without any, the greater the chance that something bigger this way comes.




I was with a a prayer group while this occured. It was a very powerful two hours of worship and we finished with me talking about sensing the Japan quake before it happened...which led to discussions about our risks here in the Pacific Northwest and how I don't think they (my friends) should be fearful, but prepared.

When we got in the car to leave, my earthquake alert was going off on my phone. When I told them what it was, they thought I was joking at first. After I discovered where this quake was at, the size, depth, etc and that there weren't any after-shocks.......well, let's just say my friends are currently at wallmart putting together a bug-out bag and we have an emergency meeting place arranged.

PLEASE....if you live on the West Coast...be prepared. I am not trying to scare anyone, but we need to be realistic. Be prepared.






ETA: Almost three hours and NOTHING you guys......tick-tock

Thank you for the thread WC. Knowing you are not an alarmist I will be watching this one closely, not to mention that my grandbaby just moved into a house in Seattle.

reply to post by Open2Truth


I have a 7:00 pm football game to go to tonight. Makes me nervous.

I have to run to costco now to make my son his big pre-game dinner....but this is killing me. I want to stay on here and monitor stuff...but I have other things I HAVE to do.

Leaving it up to my friends to keep things updated while I am gone.

Look at the seismos HERE


I am so torn. I am feeling so strong on this one. I think I'll take my bug-out bag with me to the game because my whole family will be there.


ETA:

Another good interactive MAP


HERE is the seismo nearest my house.

Vancouver Island Earthquake Mag.6.7

Hopefully not a forerunner. I feel we need to keep positive and have faith, shine love.

the following article suggests yes its likely and for safety sake should often be regarded as one:

www.sciencecodex.com...

Rarely post, but I genuinely appreciate your threads Westcoast since I live on the Eastside of Seattle. I finally convinced my husband 2 months ago that we needed to add earthquake insurance because of a stinking feeling I've had for the last year or so. I was on my way to Costco when a GF who just moved here from the south texted me about the earthquake, and asked if she should be worried. Needless to say, I walked out with an additional 6 cases of water to add to our stash. Husband thinks I'm nuts surely, but I figure better safe than sorry these days.

Hi ATS'ers!

I am Vancouver, BC. My iPhone quake application went off, however I did not feel anything. I posted on facebook although and some friends did feel something. I am praying and sending good vibes out to all of us here on the westcoast, but I will admit, this has me somewhat concerned. No aftershocks posted yet. Keep alert to your animals, be prepared and stay safe everyone xo

I was about to grill you, just because it's yet another person being paranoid about another quake. Then you mentioned that there is no aftershocks, and that kinda does disturb me. In my short time of quake watching every decent size quake has had aftershocks.. The fact that this one doesn't does raise some alarms..

I don't know much about EQs, but I have a question. Was there an earthquake similar to this one in Japan prior to their earthquake? If there was how long before their big one did the smaller one happen?

Originally posted by WhoDat09
I don't know much about EQs, but I have a question. Was there an earthquake similar to this one in Japan prior to their earthquake? If there was how long before their big one did the smaller one happen?

Yes. there was. I believe it was a 7.2 a day before.

The article linked above goes into detail on it, and also how that same scenario applies directly to us on the West Coast.

This is a VERY real concern...not just trying to garnish attention. My gut aches.

Originally posted by WhoDat09
I don't know much about EQs, but I have a question. Was there an earthquake similar to this one in Japan prior to their earthquake? If there was how long before their big one did the smaller one happen?

The 7.3 hit on March 9th, the 9.1 followed 2 days afterwards.

Magnitude 9.0 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN March 11, 2011
Magnitude 5.5 MYANMAR-CHINA BORDER REGION March 10, 2011
Magnitude 6.5 NEW BRITAIN REGION, PAPUA NEW GUINEA March 09, 2011
Magnitude 7.3 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN March 09, 2011

Im in seattle area also...and I believe there was also a 6.8 in alaska today, and a 4 something in LA a day or sao ago....all of those areas are really the last places to go along the ring of fire that has regualr activity...so maye all those spots are looseing up...hopefully not


Edit: My bad the alaska quake was on the 2nd not today

Okay, I have to go for awhile. Please keep an eye on things.

I am currently watching GEE live for the Vancouver region and I don't see much of anything. That scares me.

reply to post by Cherryontop


Wow - March 9, Sept 9 - Hope that we can get through the weekend without more tumult.

reply to post by westcoast


Wow! Thank you! Everyone on the west coast stay safe, I hope that it is nothing, and nothing happens but it's good to keep an eye on these things.

I live south of Seattle, and I have to say, I'm a little un-nerved about this. All we can do is hit the stores and pick up extra food and supplies and pray for the best. It's bound to happen eventually. My only concern for my family is that our house uses natural gas. Scary...

reply to post by westcoast


An earthquake this large with no aftershocks would seem likely to be a foreshock. Either that or the quake shifted the stress. (I highly doubt it released the entirety of the stress that had accumulated in the region...you usually only get such a full release in certain types of massages).

But, consider the pattern: when there is a large main quake, a long series of aftershocks occur, generally of decreasing magnitude over time (often for more than a year in the case of the higher magnitudes). When foreshocks are involved, we tend to see a clustered series of quakes of similar magnitude in the days prior.

This best fits the foreshock pattern. With a 6.4, we should be seeing aftershocks of up to a 4.4. With a 6.4 foreshock, could we expect a main quake of around an 8 or 8.5?
Though, the issue is compounded by this being a megathrust fault capable of much more than that. A "simple" magnitude-8 off Vancouver Island could trigger a 9 or higher in the fault to the south.

reply to post by westcoast


WC,

I do not want to be a scaremonger either, but I also noticed the lack of aftershock from this quake and it is also making me nervous. Bellevue area here, so I am a little more secure than you guys in Seattle and W, but not by much.

I don't know if you noticed, but about 2-3 weeks ago, there was a mag 5+ quake at both the north and south ends of the Juan de Fuca plate on the same day. I thought that was sort of odd, and began to wonder about the possibility of the N American plate starting to do a major slip. If the whole 900 mile zone tears, then we are in for a rocky ride!!

The one HUGE thing we have in the Puget Sound area to be thankful for, is that if a subduction quake does hit off the coast, a tsunami is very UNLIKELY to do damage in the greater Puget Sound area. Only one of the faults under Seattle letting go could potentially cause that, and even at that it would be minor as it would only have the volume of the Sound to use for its tsunami.

Have always enjoyed your threads, and feel that you are spot on with your conclusions from them.

Danno

Hey just wanted to let you guys know that having a 6.4m Earthquake happen is a good thing. This means the tectonic plates are releasing stress so that also means the next earthquake won't be as violent as we have been expecting. But like posted above we should all be prepared for the worst, 8.0+ Earthquakes are still very possible for the West Coast region.

Originally posted by Open2Truth
reply to post by Cherryontop

 

Wow - March 9, Sept 9 - Hope that we can get through the weekend without more tumult

What a worry this is, and nines, nines seem to everywhere at the moment. And yes its exactly six months since 9 March. My prayers will be for nothing to happen, and that this is just a one off.