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Originally posted by Juggalette
snip
...I love to learn new things! Maybe someone should author a thread about the methodology itself and just leave TMiddlebrook out!
come now.. are we really supposed to believe that ANYbody in their right mind would go go through all the trouble of creating a screenname with a hidden meaning, a fake email exchange, with a shady undertone: just to get back at ats??
For the first time, geologists have taken a peek underground at damage caused by past earthquakes along the New Madrid seismic zone, part of which is in northeast Arkansas.
They don't like what they see.
Research of vertical ground movement conducted by Karl Mueller, a geological sciences professor at the University of Colorado-Boulder, indicates that a 7.5-magnitude earthquake could occur every 1,000 years.
Scientists predict that there is up to a 70 percent chance that a 6.0-magnitude quake will strike along the seismic zone within the next 15 years. There's a 90 percent probability of a 6.0 tremor before 2040, according to the study.
The research rebuts earlier research by a Northwestern University scientist who said the New Madrid seismic zone was becoming dormant.
"We certainly think it's a hazard," Mueller said Thursday. "You're sitting on a loaded gun."
The zone cuts through the Midwest, from Cairo, Ill., southwest to Marked Tree in Arkansas.
The fault system is best known for its series of great quakes in 1811-1812 near New Madrid, Mo. Estimated magnitudes of the tremors ranged between 7.8 and 8.1. They were powerful enough to ring church bells in Boston and cause buildings to crack in Savannah, Ga.
An offshoot of the fault, or lineament, shook northeast Arkansas and southern Missouri last month. Scientists said the epicenter of the 3.9-magnitude quake, the third-largest in Arkansas in 25 years, was near Middlebrook in northern Randolph County.
Unlike faults along the San Andreas seismic zone, which are on top of the earth's surface, New Madrid faults are buried beneath hundreds of feet of Mississippi River sediment. Such faults can raise and lower the landscape without actually breaking the earth's surface.
Mueller calls such land formations "blind-thrusts." The thrusts fold layers of rock beneath the surface as they absorb the upward energy released by earthquakes. The trenches offered a view of some of the earth's vertical movement.
Scientists predict that there is up to a 70 percent chance that a 6.0-magnitude quake will strike along the seismic zone within the next 15 years. There's a 90 percent probability of a 6.0 tremor before 2040, according to the study.