New ATS Member Claiming To Have Important Warning/Information. You Be The Judge...

Originally posted by zworld Originally posted by tmiddlebrook36 More info. This is an intercept of an email: t, I remain skeptical. But if there is new data and studies out there discussing the reasons for this increased awareness of a potential big one, please share this with us. Im sure you could U2U someone on this thread that would post this data for us and you. But the bottom line is, the plates are in motion and heating up. Big ones.....probably everywhere soon as far as I can tell. In fact they already are happening. And all that released pressure is going somewhere else. The tohoku EQs in Japan sent a massive chunk of energy our way via the lithosphere. Both the Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ) and the New Madrid Fault (NMF) have been absorbing energy for 200 to 300 years without really moving. And move they must. Its the law of earth physics. I give the CSZ a year. It will set off the San Andreas and other localized fault systems. When these go, so goes the NMF shortly afterwards. Im just thinking out loud. The thing I use as a predictor is Edgar Cayce. In a trance he said that the big one along the CA coast would happen 3 months after the second sister erupted. Two famous volcanoes are considered the two sisters by most (and for the life of me I cant remember which two), but I like a different theory that says that the two sisters are actually Mt St Helens and Mt St Helena. Helens blew, and it's well known that the geysers area north of Mt St Helena is the most seismically active area in the lower 48. If Mt St Helena starts acting up, sell the ranch quick.

TMIDDLEBROOKS - NEWEST POST
**** Closest post to date. And, yes, I do log on to read what people are writing as I cannot be responsible for information being entirely leaked. You should ALL doubt me. In science, skepticism is the most priceless position. Nothing came from our MB yesterday, (simply stated: Morning Briefing). People are trying to piece a ton of information together and this science is so very new and the data sometimes contradicting, so you can imagine their hesitation. Bottom line; there is specific and credible information supporting theories being presented, modified, and redetermined on literally an hourly basis. Please reread GESS. Some of you are nearly spot on in theory. I remain skeptical myself, however I have been around this world for many years and never before has science pointed in one direction more. Stay prepared.

reply to post by westcoast

Hi West,

magnitude 4-plus quakes in SoCal are not all that common. I did a search in the NEIC database for last year:

NEIC: Earthquake Search Results

U. S. G E O L O G I C A L S U R V E Y

E A R T H Q U A K E D A T A B A S E



FILE CREATED: Wed Sep 14 19:14:56 2011
Circle Search Earthquakes= 7
Circle Center Point Latitude: 34.000N Longitude: 118.000W
Radius: 160.000 km
Catalog Used: PDE
Date Range: 2010/01/01 to 2010/12/31
Magnitude Range: 4.0 - 10.0
Data Selection: Historical & Preliminary Data


CAT YEAR MO DA ORIG TIME LAT LONG DEP MAGNITUDE IEM DTSVNWG DIST
NFO km
TF

PDE 2010 01 12 023608.44 33.97 -116.88 10 4.3 MLPAS 4F. ....... 103
PDE 2010 01 16 120325.70 33.93 -117.02 13 4.3 MLPAS 4F. ....... 90
PDE-W 2010 02 13 213906.60 34.01 -117.18 8 4.1 MLPAS 4F. ....... 75
PDE-W 2010 03 16 110400.19 33.99 -118.08 18 4.2 mbGS 5F. ....... 7
PDE-W 2010 07 07 235333.53 33.42 -116.49 14 5.5 MwGS 6FM ....... 154
PDE-W 2010 08 06 173931.67 33.98 -116.44 7 4.1 MLPAS 3F. ....... 143
PDE-W 2010 08 24 054216.86 33.51 -119.03 16 4.0 MLPAS 3F. ....... 109

SOURCE: NEIC Database Search

This shows that in 2010, there were 7 quakes of mag 4.0 or greater that occurred within 160 km (about 100 miles) of LA and that are listed in the database. [Note: I used 34N and 118W for the center of the search circle as it corresponds closely enough to LA's official location within fractions of a degree.]

However, here's an interesting thing: if we increase the radius of the circle to 320 km (roughly 200 miles), the number of relevant quakes in the database goes up to 127. As I'd rather not post the full listing, here's the link to the search results page at NEIC.

Anyone who wants to do a quake search can go to this page and plug in their own parameters. Don't take it as the be all and end all: there may be quakes that don't make it into the archives but are listed in other, reliable sources. However, it's a useful little tool to get a pretty good idea of what sort of quake activity happens where.

Just like to comment that increasing the radius of the circle by a factor of two (as in the second search) gives us four times the area. (Because A = πr2) Therefore, if things were purely linear, we'd expect 28 quakes versus 7. Obviously, it doesn't work that way with quakes as the area in question isn't seismically uniform , but I thought I'd mention it. But all the same, bearing in mind that the middlebrook person seems focused mainly on SoCal (and by natural inference the adjacent region of Mexico, fault lines not respecting borders), I'd say that as two mag 4-range quakes have popped up in that region in the past 24 hours it's well worth looking into what s/he has been saying.

Best regards,

Mike

reply to post by Doodle19815

Thanks for the heads up, Doodle.

Members and others, just to save time for a few folks, here's a linky to tmiddlebrook36's most recent post on the AR thread (that Doodle's quoted for us here).

Best regards,

Mike

reply to post by Doodle19815


Thanks for being on top of this so fast!

Can I say it again???? The plot thickins.

Given the information in the post that TM said was the closest to reality....I would say that we are going in the right direction. I invited TM to look at my theory thread...I have been coming around to this conclusion for months now.....here is my response from the arkansas thread:

Thank you for responding....and I appreciate the fact that you understand the criticism.

I urge you to take a look at a thread I have been authoring for awhile now, involving a theory that ties into what you are warning us of, I believe:

Putting it all together.......


Essentially, I think that the CSZ extends all the way down through california...with the seismic zone being just east of the center. That the San Andreas fault is a SYMPTOM of this, and so is any activity along it. That the spreading, or 'unzipping' of said fault will occur prior to or as a result of the CSZ slipping...leading to a coast-wide event.

I have further speculated that the cascade range volcanos, the Oregon calderas and California calderas are all linked in a way not exposed (as far as I know) and would also be directly affected by said event.

In the past week I have further speculated (based on recent quakes and now your info) that the new madrid could aslo very possibly be tying into this...that the stresses and energy involved translates throughout the whole plate. That under this stress, it is going to give at the weakest point...the New Madrid.

I would appreciate any of your thoughts on this...or if you think I am wasting my time or need to direct my energies elsewhere.

I welcome you to U2U me or any other established member here at ATS if you want to say more "off the boards".

If we could something convincing enough, I would like to ask the mods to move this out of the hoax bin. But for our purposes now, it really doesn't matter where it is. I supose that if we have some convincing evidence, the best thing to do would be to start a new thread with said info....but it isn't time yet. We need more.

Time to look again that referenced doument.

reply to post by westcoast

Good points you make, West, and yes -- I'd agree that the CSZ is a factor that may have much more far-reaching effects than previously considered possible or even surmised. After all, it's only been in the past couple of decades that scientists have begun to get a good handle on its megathrust events of the past few thousand years. Research takes time and great diligence, but before the research it takes people who are willing to think outside the box and come up with ideas and/or theories that need to be researched.

Regarding U2Us, I'm not sure if "t" has sufficient posts yet to access that feature for general use. If I recall aright, until a member has 20 posts they can only use U2Us to U2U moderators.

As for this thread being where it is, I prefer to think that sometimes it's an ill wind that blows no-one any good. We are trundling along quite nicely here in this cyber-backwater of ATS with little unwanted interference (read "trolls"), and sometimes that's not a bad way to be.

Best regards,

Mike

Thank you all for being supportive! I feel like a first grader trying to put together a 1500 piece jigsaw puzzle without the picture. I want so bad to be of help but I can only find the corner pieces.

I thank you all for the hard work you are putting into this as I know most of you do it as a "hobby". Even if you reach just a few that you can teach I hope you know your efforts are well worth it. I promise to try and stay out of the way and observe instead of blabber on like I am doing now.

Shall we keep an eye on Mount St. Helena or was that just a side note?

Could someone please explain why this is in the "HOAX" forum???

Quick thought: Having this thread in the HOAX bin might be a major blessing; people don't usually check the HOAX threads, so we are being shielded from trolls and shills.

As TM36 referred to Zworld's post as the most accurate, I looked into the Two sisters of Edgar Cayce...they are Mt. Vesuvius and Mt. Pelee (in Martinique). Vesuivius last erupted in 1944 although prior to that it had a 20 year eruption cycle. Mt Pelee last erupted from 1929-1932. However, I found a volcano "range" located in Oregon that is called the Three Sisters, nicknames Faith, Hope and Charity. No eruption in the last 200 years.

I don't really hold much water to an Edgar Cayce prediction, just thought I'd add to the plot thickening

Links: www.volcanolive.com...
www.edgarcayce.org...
vulcan.wr.usgs.gov...

reply to post by Signals


Think it was because TM was originally posting as TMiddlebrook35 and nothing he claimed was verifiable, so was banned I think. He came back as TMiddlebrook36 but by then this thread was marked as hoax. It's better this way, as people have said. He came back, has shared what seems to be valid earthquake info, but of course nothing is proven until the big one he claims is coming, happens. Hoax bin is fine so long as we can still post in it.Been so nice not having any troublemakers around.

Originally posted by Signals
Could someone please explain why this is in the "HOAX" forum???

I'm beginning to believe this is sometimes a moderator's "secret blessing", as in "go on, talk amongst yourselves". And thinking I need to check the hoax bin once in a while! Joking aside, I think the only person who knows why is the user who started the thread.

reply to post by SunnyDee


That still doesn't make sense...

TMiddlebrook# didn't start this thread, westcoast did.

Unless westcoast = TMiddlebrook# ???

It would seem appropriate for an explanation post from a Mod when moved to HOAX, (unless I missed one).

I'm not buying that it's somehow better for a thread to move it here, protecting it from certain posters...nonsense, if it is valid and of interest the whole site should notice and comment.

reply to post by megabogie


Yes...my immediate thought when I read that was of the three sisters. After all, it states that after the second sister...didn't ever say if there were two or three of them.

I've been watching that area. Here is the latest quake info:

DATE-(UTC)-TIME LAT(N) LON(W) DEP MAG QUAL COMMENTS
yy/mm/dd hh:mm:ss deg. deg. km Ml
08/05/03 09:33:30 44.13N 121.87W 11.2 0.2 AD
08/05/04 12:24:08 44.09N 121.87W 3.3 1.9 CC
08/05/05 13:45:28 44.14N 121.79W 6.3 0.1 BD
08/05/06 13:55:12 44.13N 121.79W 8.5 0.7 AD
08/08/23 02:12:03 44.07N 121.78W 0.1 1.4 BD
08/10/10 10:45:11 44.07N 121.79W 0.1 1.3 BB
08/10/12 17:45:14 44.09N 121.78W 5.3 1.5 AC
09/02/16 16:46:53 44.23N 121.71W 27.2 0.3 BC
09/05/16 13:14:37 44.20N 121.94W 8.1 1.2 AD
09/05/18 05:03:33 44.03N 121.87W 2.4 0.3 AD
09/07/21 05:59:26 44.10N 121.80W 0.0 0.9 CD
09/08/24 12:35:44 44.10N 121.76W 0.0 1.2 BD LOWF
09/09/24 05:57:07 44.24N 121.61W 11.1 0.9 CD
09/09/24 13:00:54 44.08N 121.80W 6.7 1.4 AB
09/10/30 18:49:11 44.29N 121.58W 17.7 0.5 AD
09/12/18 14:09:10 44.03N 121.91W 0.0 0.0 BD
10/01/05 14:02:10 44.09N 121.85W 8.7 0.1 AD
11/07/01 10:20:58 44.15N 122.02W 0.0 1.9 CD LOWF
11/07/02 13:11:09 44.01N 121.82W 4.0 2.0 BD LOWF
11/07/03 11:47:31 44.10N 121.78W 4.8 0.1 AD

source


Hmmmmm.....plays into the deformation, GPS satellite thingy:

New Evidence Indicates Continuing Uplift at Three Sisters, Oregon
Update -- March 18, 2002

Scientist's from the U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) Cascades Volcano Observatory and Central Washington University, in cooperation with staff from the U.S. Forest Service's (USFS) Willamette and Deschutes National Forests, have confirmed that slow uplift of a broad area centered about 5 kilometers (3 miles) west of South Sister volcano in the central Oregon Cascade Range is continuing at approximately the same rate as previously reported (i.e., a maximum rate of approximately 1 inch/year). The uplift was discovered by a satellite radar imaging technique during the spring of 2001, which showed that the ground surface had risen about 10 cm (4 inches) from 1996 to 2000. In May 2001, USGS and Pacific Northwest Seismograph Network (PNSN) scientists installed a seismometer and a GPS instrument near the center of uplift to monitor earthquake activity and ground movement, respectively (see Figure 1). These deployments were followed by surveys of ground deformation, spring-water chemistry, and volcanic gas emissions in Summer 2001 to ascertain whether the uplift was continuing and to determine its likely cause. In addition, satellite radar images for 2000-2001 were analyzed and compared to the 1996-2000 results.

The September 2001 ground-tilt and GPS surveys, when compared to similar surveys made in 1985 and 1986, are consistent with the radar results (i.e., the same model that fits the 1996-2001 radar observations also fits the 1986-2001 ground-tilt and GPS observations). This implies that the uplift did not start until sometime after 1996. The most recent radar data confirm that uplift continued through the summer of 2001, and daily data from the continuous GPS station installed in May 2001 show that uplift continues to the present. Meanwhile, seismicity in the area has remained at a low, background level. Analyses of spring-water samples collected in late summer 2001 are similar to those from earlier surveys but isotopic studies of carbon and helium in the most recent samples, which were not done previously, suggest a magmatic source.

Taken together, the ground-deformation, seismic, spring-water chemistry, and gas emission results suggest that uplift is caused by slow accumulation of magma at a depth of 6-7 km (4 miles) beneath the surface. If intrusion of magma were to continue, it could eventually lead to a volcanic eruption; however, an eruption is unlikely without months to years of precursory activity. In addition to continued or accelerating uplift, precursors to an eruption would include earthquakes, typically swarms of small events generated by fracturing of rock as magma moves upward, and large emissions of volcanic gases, such as carbon dioxide, which is released from the magma. At present, earthquake and gas emissions remain at low, background levels while steady uplift continues. USGS and PNSN scientists are working with USFS staff to improve monitoring of the area and, with State and local agencies, to develop an emergency-response plan.

source


cont.....

reply to post by Signals


Well it is at the top of the "Recent Posts" link so it's available to read. I came to this thread after it was marked hoax, so I don't know the real reason. I'm not too worried about it.

THEN....two years later, this:

At approximately 10 a.m. yesterday (Tuesday, March 23), an ongoing swarm of small earthquakes began in the Three Sisters volcanic center in the central Oregon Cascade Range. This activity poses no immediate threat to the public. As of this morning, the regional seismic network has detected approximately 100 earthquakes ranging in magnitude up to about 1.5. The rate of earthquakes peaked late yesterday and appears to be declining slowly. The earthquakes are occurring in the northeast part of an area centered 5 kilometers (3 miles) west of South Sister volcano in which the ground has been uplifted by as much as 25 cm (about 10 inches) since late 1997. On the basis of multiple lines of evidence, scientists infer that the cause of the uplift is the continuing intrusion of a modest volume of magma (molten rock). The magma appears to be accumulating at a depth of about 7 kilometers (4 miles) below the ground surface and now measures about 40 million cubic meters (about 50 million cubic yards) in volume. Until yesterday, only a few earthquakes have accompanied this process, but scientists have expected that swarms of small earthquakes such as the present one would eventually accompany the uplift. The most likely cause of the earthquakes is small amounts of slippage on faults as the Earth's crust adjusts to the slow ground deformation of the past 7 years. Heat and gases related to the magmatic intrusion have probably caused increases in fluid pressure deep underground, which also helps to trigger minor faulting events.

The processes that have been causing the uplift over the past seven years could eventually lead to shallower intrusion of magma or even to a volcanic eruption; however, both are unlikely without significantly more intense precursory activity. Scientists continue to monitor the situation closely and to evaluate data from field instruments.

Today scientists are deploying another seismometer in order to locate earthquakes more precisely. With the assistance of the Willamette and Deschutes National Forests, additional fieldwork over the next week will fix problems with some field instruments that resulted from the heavy winter snow-pack and will assess sites for new instruments.

I'll see if I can find more. I know that the deep tremors this past week have centered around Crater lake in Oregon...near the sisters.

reply to post by Signals


It was suggested by a Mod that the tmiddlebrook35 account, which was banned, was a one account of a user with multiple accounts. Given that this thread was started to discuss the post made by tmiddlebrook35, when that account was banned, this thread was moved to the [HOAX] forum.

However... we have now had several posts by a follow-up account, tmiddlebrook36, which has not been banned. Why it hasn't been banned like the first, I have no idea.

reply to post by Signals


Okay, I have to admit that my face flushed a bit when I read this...started to get a bit ticked. But that's okay. I supose it is what I get for starting the thread.

Let me assure you that I am in no way TM...I do not know who they are, and have no inside info as to why the first one got banned.

I am quite sure also, that if there were moved to the hoax bin becuase they determined I was TM...this thread would most likely be 404'd and i would also be banned.

If I were to have something to say, I would just say it. I have been around here too long to play games.

reply to post by Signals


Tmiddlebrook originally posted his/her
message in the Arkansas Earthquake
thread. If you read the first post here
by Westcoast she started the thread
so we could discuss it. The Mods
decided to move it to the Hoax bin,
as far as I know they did not give an
explanation for moving it.

reply to post by westcoast


WC, thanks for digging all that up! I thought you may have scoffed at it since it was part of a Cayce prediction. Bad thing is, Tmiddlebrook is so cryptic, it's hard to know what part of the ZWorld post he could be referring to or if he meant the entire thing was along the right track.

I'll keep looking.

reply to post by westcoast


Listen, I am on your side, and find this thread quite interesting. I am just speculating on why it's here.

It aggravates me when good stuff is sent to HOAX with no explanation.

Are you certain of the EQ angle to his "info"? Seems to me that it points more toward a GRB...

(maybe both??)