Is there a X18 flare heading this way?

reply to post by Rosha

Crackling with Gamma? Where do you see that?
There isn't much activity expected for the next three days, nothing about X-class.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for moderate activity. The continued persistence of Region 1271, as well as the return of old Region 1261 on Day 2 (20 Aug), make moderate activity more probable. During the last rotation, old Region 1261 produced five M-class events including an
M9 and CME on 04 August.

www.swpc.noaa.gov...

Originally posted by Phage
reply to post by Rosha

 

Crackling with Gamma? Where do you see that?
There isn't much activity expected for the next three days, nothing about X-class.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for moderate activity. The continued persistence of Region 1271, as well as the return of old Region 1261 on Day 2 (20 Aug), make moderate activity more probable. During the last rotation, old Region 1261 produced five M-class events including an
M9 and CME on 04 August.

www.swpc.noaa.gov...

Here beneath the beautiful limb photo.
spaceweather.com...
To quote:
"In Falmouth, Maine, photographer John Stetson turned his solar telescope toward sunspot group 1271 and found it seething. "The active region is bright and crackling, surrounded by long, twisting filaments of magnetism that seem poised to produce some powerful flares," he says. Indeed,NOAA analysts note that the sunspot has a "beta-delta-gamma" magnetic field that harbors energy for X-class explosions."


R

Originally posted by CLPrime
For those who don't feel like reading 3 pages, here's what happened:

An X18 flare occurred in 2003
The Dailymail wrote an article about it...in 2003
In 2011 a minor flare occurred
Also in 2011, the Dailymail article was rehashed
The Dailymail article about the X18 was connected to the recent minor flare
All hell broke loose

And here we are.

It was actualy a 28. Not 18.

Proof link here: www.spaceweather.com...

Top flare #1 X28+
Off the scope.
Turned grass here yellow..gave me a migraine for a month.

R

reply to post by Rosha

Region 1271 had a Beta-Gamma-Delta configuration yesterday. It now has a Beta configuration.

I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 18/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
1271 N16E38 059 0290 Ehc 11 16 Beta
1272 S22E41 056 0060 Cso 04 03 Beta
1273 S18W09 112 0010 Bxo 04 04 Beta

www.swpc.noaa.gov...


BTW, "Gamma" has nothing to do with gamma rays if that's what you meant.
www.expertglossary.com...

Originally posted by this_is_who_we_are

Originally posted by SonOfTheLawOfOne

Although the charged particles present no direct danger to people on the ground, they could have a devastating effect on electrical equipment.

The problem with flare prediction is communication, noaa doesnt talk to nasa who doesnt talk to soho who wont talk to the military observatories who wont talk to anyone they dont pay or like....if there was a report of a direct X18 or worse burst heading this way..it'd hit and be over by the time the media was read in.

Its not like its like tornado forcasting....we do have very good intel and experience predicting solar flares and we can watch and see whats comming in relative real time..but no one seems to want anyone else to know they're getting their 'next best picture of the day'. I get that its difficult to know when to call an alert, in that way its more like tsunami alert - no one wants to push the big red button unless its huge becuase they dont want to panic people and dont want to be embarrassed.if it doesnt happen - but by the time they know it really is huge..its usualy too late to press the big red button.



R

Originally posted by Phage
reply to post by Rosha

 

Region 1271 had a Beta-Gamma-Delta configuration yesterday. It now has a Beta configuration.

I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 18/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
1271 N16E38 059 0290 Ehc 11 16 Beta
1272 S22E41 056 0060 Cso 04 03 Beta
1273 S18W09 112 0010 Bxo 04 04 Beta

www.swpc.noaa.gov...


BTW, "Gamma" has nothing to do with gamma rays if that's what you meant.
www.expertglossary.com...

No thats not what I meant..its a magnetic class....though thank you for checking.



R

Animation from NASA wrong or maybe some ghost CME ..


This NASA animation tell us CME come today but I can see that solar flare appear in last 5 days Earth direction ..

iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080...

If not explosion is only some very weak wind or they put this animation on wrong side, CME appear at 16 Aug. but on opposite side of Sun ..


Watch STEREO A and B from 14-18 August, no Sun explosion no CME Earth direction ..
Ahead COR 2
Behind COR 2

stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov...

Hope someone explain my this, because I cant see that incoming CME ..

Originally posted by Old77
move along people...swamp gas...nothing to see here....nothing major is coming, unfolding, or happening...Please continue to live healthy ignorant yet perceivable happy lives. Its what our corporations count on to continue #ing the world over...

And when did those youtube "doomsdays" predictions come true before??

reply to post by Open2Truth


How do u think it's a X18? it's more like a C, the blast at the sun and the CME is something different.

well according to JPL's tracker ssd.jpl.nasa.gov...
the animation is accurately showing the position of mercury to earth and the time of around 20th - 21st august when the CME is supposed to pass. according to the animation. the worrying date is around 25th where there is an alignment of mercury - sun - elenin earth. we should see some interesting affects then.

also of we look at a similar image of a m1 flare and cme which was released on 3rd august spaceweather.com...
the CME is much smaller and also slower and also was not directly towards earth we are off centre. this new model shows a much greater effect. but why aren't we seeing anything on any of the other sites, it is strange. Nasa pipe the data to NOAA and they use it to write there forecasts.If this animation is correct then we should be seeing something over the next Day or two maximum,

guess we will have to watch the magnitosphere simulator and see for our selves

reply to post by SickPsychh


I wasn't commenting on the classification. I was just informing those who didn't understand why a video "dated" 8/18/11 wasn't a new flare - I happen to watch the NASA news conference live yesterday, and this video of a past event was part of their presentation.

well nothing strange happened no increase in Aurora's. so im guessing the animation was a simulation of what would happen if a large flare had happened. And the effects it would have had.

Originally posted by NicelyToasted
reply to post by CLPrime

 

Thank you my good Sir

Im off to sleep now, quiet confident all will be the same tomorrow.

Cheers

Would't you be just slightly tikt off if you woke and discovered that the world had ended...?

And that you missed the show.