SpaceWeather.com warning! M9.3 solar flare is here!

Warning to Pilots AND Boaties..

Please stay clear of the Bermuda Triangle today so you don't end up a thread on ATS tomorrow.

already posted

As the one of the strongest CME storms in years begins to possibly subside, here are some photos taken by Travis Novitsky in Grand Portage Minnesota from Spaceweather.com.




www.spaceweather.com...
The geomagnetic storm registered 8 on the 0 to 9 "K-index" scale of magnetic disturbances, which initiated auroras across Europe and in many northern-tier US states.

reply to post by Violater1

At least I thought they were pretty.

Some say this storm just started. This may deserve it's own thread. Feel free if anyone wants to.

8-6-11"Power companies prepare as solar storms set to hit Earth"
news.yahoo.com...

I have sadly slept through the whole strong geomagnetic storm yesterday. And I couldn't see anything today. But the aurora reached as far down as Moscow and Tula in Russia, which is very rare. Here are some photos of the beautiful show. I am feeling normal, I am notaffected by geomagnetic storms (at least of that magnitude) It looks rather beautiful. You can begin reading from here, and look at the pictures in the next pages.
All in Russian, but images there without the need to register. www.astronomy.ru...

It's quite interesting how a photographer in Latvia managed to capture what looks like waves in the aurora, what could that possibly be? (Sadly their forum doesn't allow hotlinking of the actual images)
www.astronomy.ru...

Originally posted by kro32
Well this should be proof that these big flares have little to no effect on anything.

I will archive this to debunk the next thread that thread that says these are dangerous.

Ooh, so you are a scientist to claim this?...

Solar activity as a triggering mechanism for earthquakes

John F. Simpsona, b

a Goodyear Aerospace Corporation, USA

b University of Akron, Akron, Ohio, USA

Received 7 November 1967; revised 16 December 1967. Available online 28 October 2002.

Abstract

Solar activity, as indicated by sunspots, radio noise and geomagnetic indices, plays a significant but by no means exclusive role in the triggering of earthquakes. Maximum quake frequency occurs at times of moderately high and fluctuating solar activity. Terrestrial solar flare effects which are the actual coupling mechanisms which trigger quakes appear to be either abrupt accelerations in the earth's angular velocity or surges of telluric currents in the earth's crust. The graphs presented in this paper permit probabilistic forecasting of earthquakes, and when used in conjunction with local indicators may provide a significant tool for specific earthquake prediction.

linkinghub.elsevier.com...

SCIENCE WITHOUT BORDERS. Transactions of the International Academy of Science H & E.
Vol.3. 2007/2008, SWB, Innsbruck, 2008 ISBN 978-9952-451-01-6 ISSN 2070-0334
217
ABOUT POSSIBLE INFLUENCE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY UPON SEISMIC AND VOLCANIC ACTIVITIES: LONG-TERM FORECAST

*Khain V.E., **Khalilov E.N.
*Moscow State University named after M.V.Lomonosov,
**International Academy of Science H&E (Austria, Innsbruck)

It has been determined that in the period of solar activity increase (11-year
cycles) there increase seismic and volcanic activities in the compression zone of
Earth and at the same time there decreases the activity in the tension zones of Earth.
On the basis of the discovered stable 11-year and 22-year cyclicalities in the seismic and volcanic activities and their high correlation with solar activity there has been made the long-term forecast until 2018. The next maximum of seismic and volcanic activity with very high amplitude for the compression zones of Earth is forecasted for the period 2012-2015.

www.khalilov.biz...

BTW, if you want to know who Elchin Khalilov (Khalilov E.N.) is here are a few facts that anyone can corroborate...

Dr.Prof. Elchin Khalilov (Azerbaijani: Elçin Xəlilov (born On April, 26th 1959, Baku, Azerbaijan) is a famous scientist in the sphere of geodynamics, seismology and tectonics.

en.wikipedia.org...

A relationship between solar activity and frequency of natural disasters in China
Journal Advances in Atmospheric Sciences
Publisher Science Press, co-published with Springer-Verlag GmbH
ISSN 0256-1530 (Print) 1861-9533 (Online)
Issue Volume 20, Number 6 / November, 2003
DOI 10.1007/BF02915516
Pages 934-939
Subject Collection Earth and Environmental Science
SpringerLink Date Sunday, June 08, 2008

Wang Zhongrui1 , Song Feng2 and Tang Maocang1

(1) Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 730000 Lanzhou
(2) Climate and Bio-Atmospheric Sciences Group, School of Natural Resource Sciences, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, Lincoln, Nebraska, USA

Received: 7 September 2002 Revised: 6 June 2003

Abstract The relationship between the length of the solar cycle, a good indicator of long-term change in solar activity, and natural disasters (drought, flood, and strong earthquakes) in China during the last 108 years is analyzed. The results suggest that the length of solar cycle may be a useful indicator for drought/flood and strong earthquakes. When the solar activity strengthens, we see the length of the solar cycle shorten and more floods occur in South China and frequent strong earthquakes happen in the Tibetan Plateau, but the droughts in East China as well as the strong earthquakes in Taiwan and at the western boundary of China are very few. The opposite frequencies occur when the solar activity weakens. The current study indicates that the solar activity may play an important role in the climate extremes and behavior in the lithosphere.

www.springerlink.com...

Solar activity and global seismicity of the earth

Journal Bulletin of the Russian Academy of Sciences: Physics
Publisher Allerton Press, Inc. distributed exclusively by Springer Science+Business Media LLC
ISSN 1062-8738 (Print) 1934-9432 (Online)
Issue Volume 71, Number 4 / April, 2007
Category Proceedings of the XXIX All-Russia Conference on Cosmic Rays
DOI 10.3103/S1062873807040466
Pages 593-595
Subject Collection Physics and Astronomy
SpringerLink Date Wednesday, May 16, 2007

S. D. Odintsov1, G. S. Ivanov-Kholodnyi1 and K. Georgieva2

(1) Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere, and Radiowave Propagation, Russian Academy of Sciences, Troitsk, Moscow oblast, 142190, Russia
(2) Laboratory of Solar—Terrestrial Coupling, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Sophia, Bulgaria


Abstract Results of studying the character and possible succession of cause-effect relations (in going from a disturbance source on the Sun to a response in the lithosphere in the range of periods from several days to the 11-year solar cycle) have been presented. It has been indicated that the maximum of seismic energy, released from earthquake sources in the 11-yr cycle of sunspots, is observed during the phase of cycle decline and lags 2 yr behind the solar cycle maximum. It has been established that the maximum in the number of earthquakes directly correlates with the instant of a sudden increase in the solar wind velocity.

Original Russian Text © S.D. Odintsov, G.S. Ivanov-Kholodnyi, K. Georgieva, 2007, published in Izvestiya Rossiiskoi Akademii Nauk. Seriya Fizicheskaya, 2007, Vol. 71, No. 4, pp. 608–610.

www.springerlink.com...

Relationship between global seismicity and solar activities

Journal Acta Seismologica Sinica
Publisher Seismological Society of China
ISSN 1000-9116 (Print) 1993-1344 (Online)
Issue Volume 11, Number 4 / July, 1998
DOI 10.1007/s11589-998-0096-5
Pages 495-500
Subject Collection Earth and Environmental Science
SpringerLink Date Tuesday, June 19, 2007

Gui-Qing Zhang1

(1) Beijing Astronomical Observatory, Chinese Academy of Science, 100101 Beijing, China

Received: 4 July 1997 Revised: 25 November 1997 Accepted: 25 November 1997

Abstract The relations between sunspot numbers and earthquakes (M≧6), solar 10.7 cm radio flux and earthquakes, solar proton events and earthquakes have been analyzed in this paper. It has been found that: (1) Earthquakes occur frequently around the minimum years of solar activity. Generally, the earthquake activities are relatively less during the peak value years of solar activity, some say, around the period when magnetic polarity in the solar polar regions is reversed. (2) the earthquake frequency in the minimum period of solar activity is closely related to the maximum annual means of sunspot numbers, the maximum annual means of solar 10.7 cm radio flux and solar proton events of a whole solar cycle, and the relation between earthquake and solar proton events is closer than others. (3) As judged by above interrelationship, the period from 1995 to 1997 will be the years while earthquake activities are frequent. In the paper, the simple physical discussion has been carried out.
Key words solar activity - sunspot numbers - solar radio flux - solar proton events

These results supported the exploration and studies of some researchers to a certain extent.

This work is supported by Foundation of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (major item).

www.springerlink.com...

Annales Geophysicae (2003) 21: 597–602
c European Geosciences Union 2003

High-energy charged particle bursts in the near-Earth space as
earthquake precursors
S. Yu. Aleksandrin1, A. M. Galper1, L. A. Grishantzeva1, S. V. Koldashov1, L. V. Maslennikov1, A.M. Murashov1,
P. Picozza2, V. Sgrigna3, and S. A. Voronov1
1Space Physics Institute, Moscow State Engineering Physics Institute, Kashirskoe shosse 31, 115409 Moscow, Russia
2Dept. of Physics, Univ. of Rome ”Tor Vergata” and INFN Sez. Rome2, via della Ricerca Scientifica 1, I–00133 Rome, Italy
3Dept. of Physics, Univ. of Rome ”Roma Tre”, via della Vasca Navale, 84, I–00146 Rome, Italy
Received: 21 July 2001 – Revised: 21 May 2002 – Accepted: 11 July 2002

Abstract. The experimental data on high-energy charged
particle fluxes, obtained in various near-Earth space experiments
(MIR orbital station, METEOR-3, GAMMA and
SAMPEX satellites) were processed and analyzed with the
goal to search for particle bursts. Particle bursts have been selected
in every experiment considered. It was shown that the
significant part of high-energy charged particle bursts correlates with seismic activity. Moreover, the particle bursts are observed several hours before strong earthquakes; L-shells of particle bursts and corresponding earthquakes are practically the same. Some features of a seismo-magnetosphere connection model, based on the interaction of electromagnetic emission of seismic origin and radiation belt particles, were considered.

Key words. Ionospheric physics (energetic particles,
trapped; energetic particles, precipitating; magnetosphereionosphere
interactions)

hal.archives-ouvertes.fr...

Title:
Climate determinism or Geomagnetic determinism?
Authors:
Gallet, Y.; Genevey, A.; Le Goff, M.; Fluteau, F.; Courtillot, V.
Affiliation:
AA(Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris, 4 Place Jussieu, Paris, 75005 France ; [email protected]), AB(Centre de Recherche et de Restauration des Musees de France, Palais du Louvre, Porte des Lions 14 quai Francois Mitterrand, Paris, 75001 France ; [email protected]), AC(Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris, 4 Place Jussieu, Paris, 75005 France ; [email protected]), AD(Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris, 4 Place Jussieu, Paris, 75005 France ; [email protected]), AE(Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris, 4 Place Jussieu, Paris, 75005 France ; [email protected])
Publication:
American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2006, abstract #GP51A-0940
Publication Date:
12/2006
Origin:
AGU
AGU Keywords:
1503 Archeomagnetism, 1521 Paleointensity, 1605 Abrupt/rapid climate change (4901, 8408), 1616 Climate variability (1635, 3305, 3309, 4215, 4513)
Abstract Copyright:
(c) 2006: American Geophysical Union
Bibliographic Code:
2006AGUFMGP51A0940G

Abstract

A number of episodes of sharp geomagnetic field variations (in both intensity and direction), lasting on the order of a century, have been identified in archeomagnetic records from Western Eurasia and have been called "archeomagnetic jerks". These seem to correlate well with multi-decadal cooling episodes detected in the North Atlantic Ocean and Western Europe, suggesting a causal link between both phenomena. A possible mechanism could be a geomagnetic modulation of the cosmic ray flux that would control the nucleation rate of clouds. We wish to underline the remarkable coincidence between archeomagnetic jerks, cooling events in Western Europe and drought periods in tropical and sub-tropical regions of the northern hemisphere. The latter two can be interpreted in terms of global teleconnections among regional climates. It has been suggested that these climatic variations had caused major changes in the history of ancient civilizations, such as in Mesopotamia, which were critically dependent on water supply and particularly vulnerable to lower rainfall amounts. This is one of the foundations of "climate determinism". Our studies, which suggest a geomagnetic origin for at least some of the inferred climatic events, lead us to propose the idea of a geomagnetic determinism in the history of humanity.

adsabs.harvard.edu...

Possible impact of the Earths magnetic field on the history
of ancient civilizations

Yves Gallet a,⁎, Agnès Genevey b, Maxime Le Goff a, Frédéric Fluteau a,c,
Safar Ali Eshraghi d

a Equipe de Paléomagnétisme, Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris, 4 place Jussieu, 75252 Paris cedex 05, France

b Centre de Recherche et de Restauration des Musées de France, UMR CNRS 171, Palais du Louvre, Porte des Lions,
14 quai François Mitterrand, 75001 Paris, France

c UFR des Sciences Physiques de la Terre, Université Denis Diderot Paris 7, 2 Place Jussieu, 75251 Paris cedex 05, France

d Geological Survey of Iran, Azadi sq., Meraj blvd., PO Box 13185-1494 Tehran, Iran
Received 30 November 2005; received in revised form 3 April 2006; accepted 3 April 2006
Available online 19 May 2006
Editor: R.D. van der Hilst

Abstract
We report new archeointensity results from Iranian and Syrian archeological excavations dated from the second millennium BC.
These high-temperature magnetization data were obtained using a laboratory-built triaxial vibrating sample magnetometer.

Together with our previously published archeointensity results from Mesopotamia, we constructed a rather detailed geomagnetic field intensity variation curve for this region from 3000 BC to 0 BC. Four potential geomagnetic events (“archeomagnetic jerks”), marked by strong intensity increases, are observed and appear to be synchronous with cooling episodes in the North Atlantic.

This temporal coincidence strengthens the recent suggestion that the geomagnetic field influences climate change over multi-decadal time scales, possibly through the modulation of cosmic ray flux interacting with the atmosphere. Moreover, the cooling periods in the North Atlantic coincide with episodes of enhanced aridity in the Middle East, when abrupt societal changes occurred in the eastern Mediterranean and Mesopotamia.

Although the coincidences discussed in this paper must be considered with caution, they lead to the possibility that the geomagnetic field impacted the history of ancient civilizations through climatically driven environmental changes, triggering economic, social and political instability.
© 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

www.ipgp.fr...


I wonder who is right.... Some unknown person who really has no idea of what he is talking about or scientists who have studied this?...

That's a tough decision....

Originally posted by Violater1
reply to post by Violater1

 

At least I thought they were pretty.

They are, very nice!

Thanks OP for the informative thread and an introduction to the spaceweather site it is brilliant

I have heard that the different aurora colors are different gasses being excited and emitting photons on their way back to the couch Could anyone tell me what color of the aurora we should be aware of when the solar bombardment has hit the lower atmosphere? Is it the red color of oxygen reacting that should make you find a safe hiding place? Or is it when your tallest tree suddenly catches fire ? I am of course asking for pure scientific reasons. and to satisfy my curiousity. I am not much of a DooMsday person. (I don't even have a double barrelled shotgun)

I think the sun has been doing this to us for millions of years. Its why were here. Genetic change from sun blasting our DNA. It hasn't killed us all yet. I'm not running to the bunker just yet.

reply to post by Manhater


I doubt any of us with metal rods in our bodies (I got one on my left shin bone that I snapped 5 years ago) have much to worry about. Theoretically if the electromagnetic disturbance was strong enough, and it was fluxing around a lot, then it might cause little eddy currents on a metal rod, which might make it heat up to an uncomfortable level...even possibly burning you from the inside...Of course if the Eddy's were somehow localized to one are of the rod, then it would push off in the other direction...but that's unlikely to just happen naturally. Honestly though....if the EM from a Solar Flare ever got to such a ridiculous level, then I'd imagine ferromagnetic materials (most metal used in pins and rods is titanium and therefore Paramagnetic) would be jumping around and being thrown at you, not to mention dozens of other unusual phenomenon going on that I probably can't even imagine off the top of my head. All of that would probably be happening before you'd even have to worry about your titanium rod heating up....and all of that would be far more dangerous in my opinion. That's not to suggest any of that would happen. I honestly think that if a solar flare was that strong then the whole Earth would basically be fried, anyway!

good to see we're all still breathing


sadly I went out last night, no northern lights for me
went out again tonight, and too much cloud cover


looks like I'm going to miss the whole thing

Checking the data and right now we have a 45% chance of an M-class flare within 0-48 hours, but a 10% chance of an X-class flare, also within that time frame. I live too far south to see an aurora, but oh, how I'd love to someday. I'm just a bit concerned that this might disrupt our power grid and believe me, if we don't have air conditioning with this blistering heat wave, a lot of people won't make it. That's a very bad scenario and I hope it doesn't come to pass. We need to look out for each other, at times like this.