The Final Warning to Tokyo

POIGNANT SURVIVOR TESTIMONIES AND SCIENTIFIC DATA CHRONICLE JAPANESE EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI IN NEW DISCOVERY SPECIAL
MEGAQUAKE: HOUR THAT SHOOK JAPAN, Featuring Exclusive Video and Interviews, Premieres on Discovery April 24 at 10PM e/p

Definitely going to view this special on Discovery Channel.

Japan Must Stop Forecasting Big Tokyo Quake as Models Flawed
Geller Says By Yuriy Humber - Apr 13, 2011 11:46 PM PT

The Japanese government should stop trying to forecast when a major quake will hit near Tokyo because models behind the predictions are flawed, according to a geophysicist.

Since 1979, a year after Japan introduced a system that aims to predict big earthquakes three days prior to the event, temblors causing 10 or more mortalities have struck in areas assigned a low seismic risk rating, said Robert Geller, a professor of geophysics at the University of Tokyo.

“It is time to tell the public frankly that earthquakes cannot be predicted,” Geller said in a Nature magazine article published today. “We should instead tell the public and the government to ‘prepare for the unexpected’ and do our best to communicate both what we know and what we do not.”

www.bloomberg.com...

Originally posted by Leo Strauss
Personally I would have evacuated Tokyo after the nuclear meltdowns. Just too close for comfort. I can predict with near certainty an aftershock in the 8.0 range in the coming months based solely on the fact of the 9.1 earthquake.

Please share with us your detailed evacuation plan... that would be MOST helpful... thanks

kro32
Back to your old fear-mongering again I see. I will bet you that you are wrong and when I'm correct will you please quit trying to scare people and find a different hobby.

Logman
yep, OP is just a fear-mongering idiot that makes huge assumptions by watching the USGS site. How do you know the BIG ONE is going to strike within 2 weeks even if it's an 80% chance, just because there was a standard quake along an active subduction zone. I bet Tokyo will get hit with a mag 6 and you'll say "I TOLD YOU" but yea, if they listened to you they would have financially ruined their country. A big earthquake could strike Tokyo at any time. Today, tomorrow, in 2356. Earthquakes always hit it, it's sat on the most seimically active area on the planet and the authorities know a lot more than some nut on ATS.

Also, earhquake doesn't equal tsunami, but I guess as you just saw one then the next big quake to hit Tokyo will also have a tsunami. What a genius.


AnnonymousLurker
HAHAHAHAH.
I bet those seismologists are watching ATS as we speak, just waiting for someone to tell them whats going to happen next because they have no idea.........
You can always tell the sensationalist fearmongering idiots, they have more stars than posts thanks to the number of vapid armageddeon hunters that hang around here, randomly crying "S+F!" for every fresh raft of doom that gets predicted.
On topic, the aftershocks are diminishing as expected, but I`ll wait to see this huge quake that OP says is coming. Won`t have to wait much longer........

ossminid
Yeah, those seismologists in tokyo totally saw your warning. 'Cause you know, this piddly little thread started by some random earthquake know-it-all on a conspiracy website is the first place actual scientists come for their information. Get over yourself.


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same wording, same phrasal structures, a bit of variation here and there, all for name calling and general trolling, trying to downplay some very SERIOUS ISSUES, trying to contain the free flow of information, very odd, very odd indeed, because a true ATSer would have checked TRUE AMERICAN`s profile and corroborated that the man does not post bull, and that any claims he makes are not done so lightly...
cheers!


btw anyone can say whatever they please, this is the Internets after all, if you are not in agreement over others and feel offended no one is holding anyone against any others will here, no one obliges you to keep reading!

Astroturfers are mean fellows

Evacuating Tokyo? Japan has its pants down right now. I don't think its even possible to evacuate a highly condensed populated area at this stage in the game.

I am hoping this earthquake will not come to pass.

I have to disagree, for the time being, about another big Japanese earthquake. Over the past month or so there has been at least a 4.5 magnitude earthquake averaging every two hours and I've been monitoring it since the big earthquake in March. The last day and a half has been quite the contrary seeing as there has only been 5 quakes (still over 4.5 mag) in the last 26 hours. It seems as though things are quieting down from my observation.

Now I could be all wrong. Maybe things quiet down right before a massive earthquake...kind of like the wind going dead before a tornado hits.

reply to post by TheOneEyedProphet


"snap"

Mod Note: One Line Post – Please Review This Link.

reply to post by Unity_99


And how do you think the rest of Canada would feel, having a influx of 30million non-Canadian citizens flood its borders?

Canada's population is what, 33-36million? Almost doubling that in a short span of time would be devastating to every economy in Canada.

Originally posted by TrueAmerican
I URGE you, DO SOMETHING. WARN YOUR PEOPLE. And even perhaps consider a temporary evacuation of the city, before it is too late. Because you are about to get slammed. I estimate an 80% chance or better of this happening within the next two weeks, but may happen any time now. LOOK at that quake, and LOOK at the others on that zone. WHAT MORE WARNING SIGNS DO YOU WANT?

Do you have ANY idea of the logistics involved with evacuating Toyko? Transportation, fuel, temporary shelters, food, toilets... they can barely deal with the 300,000 thousand left homeless and evacuated from around Fukushima... There is NO WAY they can temporarily evacuate Tokyo...

And on an individual level, most people just can't get up and go that easily, despite how good the info may be... All you can do is post the information... If one had an exact time and date that was verifiable that would be another matter... but we aren't there yet.

And even if you did have that time and date for say two weeks from today... you would have utter chaos trying to move that many people in that time frame with no where to go, no support facilities and not near enough transportation

Originally posted by noonebutme
Canada's population is what, 33-36million? Almost doubling that in a short span of time would be devastating to every economy in Canada.

Be a housing boom But there is one alternative... China has Ghost Cities

Cities already built for industries that never took off and the city is still there... this one has room for 1 million

Ordos, China: A Modern Ghost Town
www.time.com...





There are others as well

Sadly I don't see Japanese taking that option...

reply to post by TheOneEyedProphet

So... what is your plan for evacuating Tokyo?

Originally posted by zorgon
Sadly I don't see Japanese taking that option...

No. No, I would say they wouldn't...

There would be some interesting dramas played out if they ever did though.

reply to post by TrueAmerican


It makes perfect sense, but you cant just count Tokyo, this could easily continue down the coast of Japan and hit places like Yokohama,Saitama,Nagao,etc. Sure Tokyo is the largest, but it's the added destruction that's going to be looked at in the long run.

Why all the bashing of TrueAmerican? Wasn't he the guy who predicted the Japanese earthquake in the first place? That kind of gives him way more credibility than any of you. I hope he's wrong. He hopes he's wrong. He doesn't need stars and flags. Have you seen how many he already has? What good could any more possibly do? They are worthless anyhow.

While I'm not sure that there is going to be something big going off in Japan soon, I definitely believe that there is more than meets the eye going on here. I would be interested in seeing historical data for the locations of these new southern earthquakes. If one randomly just pops up from time to time, then we are probably ok for now. I would be a lot more concerned if there were several going off to the south at an increased rate. But if the history shows a total lack of activity in this area, that could also be alarming. If Tokyo gets hit, the whole world suffers.

Originally posted by midwest
Why all the bashing of TrueAmerican?

The title of the thread kinda leaves one open for abuse...

However I don't consider this fear mongering as such because even Japanese scientists are concerned if you watch NHK news feed...

Problem is that Japanese will not pack up and leave to play safe. All you have to do is watch the Japanese human interest stories and see the resolve to stay put and rebuild. We nuked two cities to end WWII. They stuck it out and rebuilt from that too...

Hello Everybody I am new to this forum. Been following ATS for about a week and I have to say the discussion on ATS are very interesting and informative. Since I have no knowledge in geology, i have very little understanding of the reason behind this dire prediction for Tokyo. But i would like to know whether the OP had similarly predicted the March 11 japanese EQ based on similar evidence?

reply to post by zorgon




I'm just going to let my imagination run wild here a bit, but what if the Chinese authorities saw this whole Japan situation coming and built these cities specifically for Japanese evacuees ?
The Chinese are good at copying tech from other countries (ok, there are quality control issues but bear with me). On the other hand the Japanese are incredibly inventive now imagine combining the two cultures, with the Japanese in high density in certain areas of the country (a bit like you find a Chinatown in most major cities) you'd end up with Japanese innovation combined with a massive and relatively cheap labour-force and infrastructure already in place ready to be utilised !
Jaina would very rapidly become the dominant world economy and thus the dominant world super power

Mod Note: Big Quote – Please Review This Link.

Just a wee reminder that the "big one" hitting Tokyo has been predicted consinuously since "the" Tsunami. Needless to say if you predict every week that the "big one" is coming one day you might be right.......

Remember the Guy in the US predicting California was next and the mass fish dying off was a sign........well here we are still waiting.

I think we need a thread where each prediction is recorded alongside the result then we can see the pattern !!
I would group the data by month:
Month Made By For Prediction Outcome
APRIL TrueAmerican Devastating Tokyo earthquake

I would add predictions of the end of the world (next month rapture I believe !) as well as UFO disclosure, Financial meltdown etc etc.......hmmm let me do some collating