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No, not fact. The orbital data says that Elenin is on a hyperbolic orbit. This means it is unlikely to have entered the inner solar system at all in the past, and this one pass through will be its one and only. Even if the current orbital data is further refined with more observations, at best Elenin will have a very highly elliptical orbit with a period of millions of years. There is no way it can have a period of 3600 years.
Originally posted by phantomjack
6. Elenin is on an elliptical orbit which brings it to earth every ~3600 years. FACT
Given the orbital eccentricity of this object, different epochs can generate quite different heliocentric unperturbed two-body best-fit solutions to the aphelion distance (maximum distance) of this object. Near perihelion using an August 2011 epoch, Kazuo Kino#a shows C/2010 X1 to have a heliocentric orbital period of 600,000 years,[10] but being on a highly eccentric orbit, the comet will be frequently perturbed by the planets as it leaves the inner solar system.[11] For objects at such high eccentricity, the Sun's barycentric coordinates are more stable than heliocentric coordinates.[12] The orbit of a long-period comet is properly obtained when the osculating orbit is computed at an epoch after leaving the planetary region and is calculated with respect to the center of mass of the solar system. Using JPL Horizons with an observed orbital arc of 118 days, the barycentric orbital elements for epoch 2020-Jan-01 generate a semi-major axis of 519 AU and a period of approximately 11,800 years.[4]
Originally posted by nataylor
No, not fact. The orbital data says that Elenin is on a hyperbolic orbit. This means it is unlikely to have entered the inner solar system at all in the past, and this one pass through will be its one and only. Even if the current orbital data is further refined with more observations, at best Elenin will have a very highly elliptical orbit with a period of millions of years. There is no way it can have a period of 3600 years.
Originally posted by phantomjack
6. Elenin is on an elliptical orbit which brings it to earth every ~3600 years. FACT
Originally posted by weedwhacker
reply to post by THEDUDE86
...you said it did not have a tail....
NO, I never wrote that. I talked about the coma (which gets people "excited" because they hear it is "growing"! They misunderstand this to think it implies that the entire comet is "growing"!)
The "tail" is only a phenomenon of a comet's approach to its host star. (Our Sun, in this case.....since we haven't been to other stars, but can infer that THEY TOO will have similar orbiting phenomena).
What I wrote is that there is no "TRAIL" --- in response to a member who thought the comet was somehow "picking up" debris and "dragging it along" behind it....like it had a physical wake, or some such nonsense.
As I said....comprehension in reading. Reading is fundamental (R.I.F.)
READ IT AGAIN: www.abovetopsecret.com...
See? I write about the TAIL......as part of the COMA......edit on 15 April 2011 by weedwhacker because: (no reason given)
Actually, if a comet breaks up, the debris tends to stay in very nearly the same orbit.
Originally posted by 3dman7
I haven't read every single post in this thread but, looking at the JPL model, I see the potential for a major problem when/if the comet disintegrates when it swings around the sun. The predicted path will be different for all those small bodies and earth/iss could likely be in the path of a hail of mini comets.....it's just a matter of at which point it breaks apart...if it indeed does.
Originally posted by THEDUDE86
reply to post by phantomjack
The 3600 year orbit is all Bull
Given the orbital eccentricity of this object, different epochs can generate quite different heliocentric unperturbed two-body best-fit solutions to the aphelion distance (maximum distance) of this object. Near perihelion using an August 2011 epoch, Kazuo Kino#a shows C/2010 X1 to have a heliocentric orbital period of 600,000 years,[10] but being on a highly eccentric orbit, the comet will be frequently perturbed by the planets as it leaves the inner solar system.[11] For objects at such high eccentricity, the Sun's barycentric coordinates are more stable than heliocentric coordinates.[12] The orbit of a long-period comet is properly obtained when the osculating orbit is computed at an epoch after leaving the planetary region and is calculated with respect to the center of mass of the solar system. Using JPL Horizons with an observed orbital arc of 118 days, the barycentric orbital elements for epoch 2020-Jan-01 generate a semi-major axis of 519 AU and a period of approximately 11,800 years.[4]
Obviously people who know about these things have studied it, and no 3600 year orbit has even come up
JPL lists the eccentricity of the orbit as >1. Hence, it is in a hyperbolic orbit, and thus does not have a "period." As more observations have been made of the comet, the JPL data is refined (it's currently based on 1123 observations over a 118 day period). Originally, they calculated a period of several hundred thousand years, then refined it to several million, and now show it with a hyperbolic orbit.
Originally posted by phantomjack
Really? Because "burdman3006" is one opinion, and the only one I have seen thus far regarding this 660,000 year orbit. I guess everyone, including JPL is wrong but Burdman3006 is right.
Thanks for linking to my video. Given Elenin's orbital inclination, the tail will actually be pointed well above the Earth, as the video demonstrates.
Originally posted by kdog1982
The tail of the comet is what everyone is worried about.
It's gonna be like a "torch" aimed right at earth.
Watch the vid as it approaches the inside of the earths orbit before it crosses earths path.
www.youtube.com...
Originally posted by Xcalibur254
reply to post by phantomjack
First off can you give me evidence that this comet has a 3600 year orbit. I have seen 10,000 up to 600,000 year orbit, but no 3600 year orbit. In fact someone posted an article stating that this is the comet's first pass for the solar system.
As for Google Sky, it is not a live feed. Those pictures are from years ago. Therefore, Elenin will not be labeled. I'd even be surprised if you could see something as small as Elenin on Google Sky. As for Leonid Elenin, plenty of people have been in contact with him. There are members on here who have emailed him and received responses. He also runs a blog where he is constantly posting updates on the comet. There's even a link on here where he gave an interview in Russia.
Now, why isn't the media talking about the comet? Because it is no different from the other hundred odd comets discovered every year. Swift-Tutlle is a large comet that produces the most famous of all meteor showers, the Perseids. Shoemaker-Levy 9 impacted Jupiter, something that had never been witnessed before. That is why these comets are big deals. Elenin on the other hand is a small, dim comet that no one alive will ever see again. The only ones making a big deal about it are conspiracy theorists.
Originally posted by AwakeinNM
Let ME keep THIS short. So let's say that earth is a haystack, and the ISS is a needle orbiting it (Seriously, not even a good analogy because the ISS would be more like a tiny hayseed orbiting a very large haystack)
Given its distance, small size, and current viewing angle, there is no way to determine if there is any smaller debris following along with Elenin. Please cite your source if you have this information.
Originally posted by phantomjackI believe, that Elenen does in fact have 6 large trailers with it.