There is a 26% chance of a significant earthquake after an X class solar flare

reply to post by backinblack


How can I be certain?

All I can do is look at the data available and in this case, large solar flares don't seem to bare any influence.

For example, was the Earth's magnetic field stronger, or weaker during that time? At what distance was the moon and in what possition was it, and yes there is even research suggesting the Moon also can affect seismic and magmatic activity on Earth.

www.davidmcminn.com...

Originally posted by Chadwickus
reply to post by backinblack

 

How can I be certain?

All I can do is look at the data available and in this case, large solar flares don't seem to bare any influence.

And yet your OP says this..

So, despite the various theories connecting solar flares and earthquakes being thrown about, the cold hard facts and numbers makes me think it's all a load of doo doo

Electricuniverse has shown that mins and maxs may affect earthquakes..
Does that alter you beliefs/

reply to post by ElectricUniverse


Well taking the X28 as an example, this one occurred two years into the solar minimum in 2003, it literally came out of nowhere.

Only a few weeks ago solar activity was low. The face of the sun was nearly blank--"very few sunspots," says Hathaway--and space weather near Earth was mild. "Mild is just what we expect at this point in the 11-year solar cycle," he explains. "The most recent maximum was in 2001, and solar activity has been declining ever since."

Then, suddenly, in late October the sun began to behave strangely. Three giant sunspots appeared, each one larger than the planet Jupiter. In California where smoke from wildfires dimmed the sun enough to look straight at it, casual sky watchers were startled by the huge blotches on the sun. One of them, named "sunspot 486," was the biggest in 13 years.

Sunspots cause solar flares and, usually, the biggest flares come from the biggest spots. The three giant sunspots unleashed eleven X-class flares in only fourteen days--equaling the total number observed during the previous twelve months. "This was a big surprise," says Hathaway.
The effects on Earth were many: Radio blackouts disrupted communications. Solar protons penetrated Earth's upper atmosphere, exposing astronauts and some air travelers to radiation doses equal to a medical chest X-ray. Auroras appeared all over the world--in Florida, Texas, Australia and many other places where they are seldom seen.

science.nasa.gov...

So is this the sort of fluctuation you speak of?

Originally posted by Chadwickus
...
So is this the sort of fluctuation you speak of?

Are you sure nothing happened during that time?...

Magnitude 6.7 - SOUTHWESTERN SIBERIA, RUSSIA
2003 October 1 01:03:25 UTC
Preliminary Earthquake Report

earthquake.usgs.gov...

Magnitude 6.6 - VANUATU ISLANDS
2003 November 6 10:38:04 UTC
Preliminary Earthquake Report

earthquake.usgs.gov...

reply to post by backinblack


Well he's shown that mins and maxs both could have an effect, dependent of who wrote the paper...

Originally posted by Chadwickus
reply to post by backinblack

 

Well he's shown that mins and maxs both could have an effect, dependent of who wrote the paper...

Not much of a scientific answer there Chad..

ooops...

Magnitude 7.0 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
2003 October 31 01:06:28 UTC
Preliminary Earthquake Report
U.S. Geological Survey, National Earthquake Information Center
World Data Center for Seismology, Denver

neic.usgs.gov...

Magnitude 7.8 RAT ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, ALASKA
2003 November 17 06:43:07 UTC
Preliminary Earthquake Report
U.S. Geological Survey, National Earthquake Information Center
World Data Center for Seismology, Denver

neic.usgs.gov...

Magnitude 6.5 - SAMAR, PHILIPPINES
2003 November 18 17:14:22 UTCPreliminary Earthquake Report

earthquake.usgs.gov...

Originally posted by Chadwickus

Well he's shown that mins and maxs both could have an effect, dependent of who wrote the paper...

And again, each researcher was looking at what they thought was the cause. The conclusions do not negate each other, it just shows that during either fluctuations there is an increase in earthquake activity. Perhaps you don't know this but the Earth's magnetic field also plays an important part in how much energy the Earth get's from outside sources such as the Sun. The Sun is not the only factor that affects seismic and magmatic activity, but it is a factor.

reply to post by ElectricUniverse

Are you sure nothing happened during that time?...

Magnitude 6.7 - SOUTHWESTERN SIBERIA, RUSSIA
2003 October 1 01:03:25 UTC
Preliminary Earthquake Report

earthquake.usgs.gov...

Well this one occurred over 30 days before the flare...

Magnitude 6.6 - VANUATU ISLANDS
2003 November 6 10:38:04 UTC
Preliminary Earthquake Report

earthquake.usgs.gov...

This one doesn't fit the criteria I selected in the OP...

Magnitude 7.0 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
2003 October 31 01:06:28 UTC
Preliminary Earthquake Report
U.S. Geological Survey, National Earthquake Information Center
World Data Center for Seismology, Denver

neic.usgs.gov...

This one happened 4 day before the flare...

Magnitude 7.8 RAT ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, ALASKA
2003 November 17 06:43:07 UTC
Preliminary Earthquake Report
U.S. Geological Survey, National Earthquake Information Center
World Data Center for Seismology, Denver

neic.usgs.gov...

Magnitude 6.5 - SAMAR, PHILIPPINES
2003 November 18 17:14:22 UTCPreliminary Earthquake Report

earthquake.usgs.gov...

And these two occurred 13 and 14 days respectively after the flare.

At least I've selected a specific criteria to conduct my study, whereas you seem to throw everything against the wall and see what sticks...even quakes before a flare!

reply to post by Chadwickus


Chad, grow some and answer a simple question..

Do you think solar activity or magnetic activity may influence seismic activity ??

reply to post by backinblack


Define magnetic activity.

As for solar activity, no I don't think it does.

Large solar flares don't seem to correlate to earthquakes.

Sunspots don't seem to correlate to earthquakes.

As seen by studies carried out, people believe it may but can't agree on what..

Maybe cosmic particles do, but who knows for sure?

Originally posted by Chadwickus
reply to post by backinblack

 

Define magnetic activity.
As for solar activity, no I don't think it does.
Large solar flares don't seem to correlate to earthquakes.
Sunspots don't seem to correlate to earthquakes.
As seen by studies carried out, people believe it may but can't agree on what..
Maybe cosmic particles do, but who knows for sure?

So basically no one knows..
So why do people like you and Phage act like they do ??
Hell, where I am they can't even predict the weather for tomorrow..

reply to post by backinblack


Well maybe it's because sitting on the fence all the time is boring.

You do make a good analogy though, space weather is much like our weather, we can forecast it but it will still do whatever it likes whenever it likes.

Like that story on the X28 flare I linked to earlier.

reply to post by Chadwickus


You're avoiding a simple question..

What in your opinion can cause earthquakes??

reply to post by backinblack


Didn't I answer that in another thread a few minutes ago?

Originally posted by Chadwickus
reply to post by backinblack

 

Didn't I answer that in another thread a few minutes ago?

Was that in a link you posted?
But no, I wanted your opinion, not someone elses..

reply to post by backinblack


Well I don't really see why my opinion is needed.

Originally posted by Chadwickus
....
And these two occurred 13 and 14 days respectively after the flare.

At least I've selected a specific criteria to conduct my study, whereas you seem to throw everything against the wall and see what sticks...even quakes before a flare!

Chadwickus, do you have a degree in astrophysics, or astronomy that we don't know about?...

You try to "select criteria to conduct your study, and come up with your own conclusions which you take out of your magic hat" and then proclaim "victoriously" scientists who actually know what they are doing are wrong?...

I also didn't know that the Sun, and the Earth had to follow your instructions or else...

Since when are flares the only activity from the sun that can cause earthquakes?...

As for the earthquakes that occurred before the large cmes?

Since September 26th, Sunspot 464 was growing rapidly and had an expansion of 14 Earth diameters...

So yes Chad, there was solar activity which could have caused the earthquake on Oct 1st.

Not to mention that CMEs can be deflected towards the Sun-Earth line, or away from it. So again Chad, you can't pick and choose whatever criterias you want to pick from your magic hat and then claim scientists are wrong.

CME Interaction with Coronal Holes and their Interplanetary Consequences
N. Gopalswamy1, P. Mäkelä1,2, H. Xie1,2, S. Akiyama1,2, and S. Yashiro1,2
1NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA
2The Catholic University of America, Washington, DC, USA
(Accepted for Publication in JGR Space Physics, November 14, 2008)
A significant number of interplanetary (IP) shocks (~17%) during cycle 23 were not followed by drivers. The number of such “driverless” shocks steadily increased with the solar cycle with 15%, 33%, and 52% occurring in the rise, maximum, and declining phase of the solar cycle. The solar sources of 15% of the driverless shocks were very close the central meridian of the Sun (within ~15o), which is quite unexpected. More interestingly, all the driverless shocks with their solar sources near the solar disk center occurred during the declining phase of solar cycle 23. When we investigated the coronal environment of the source regions of driverless shocks, we found that in each case there was at least one coronal hole nearby suggesting that the coronal holes might have deflected the associated coronal mass ejections (CMEs) away from the Sun-Earth line. The presence of abundant low-latitude coronal holes during the declining phase further explains why CMEs originating close to the disk center mimic the limb CMEs, which normally lead to driverless shocks due to purely geometrical reasons. We also examined the solar source regions of shocks with drivers. For these, the coronal holes were located such that they either had no influence on the CME trajectories, or they deflected the CMEs towards the Sun-Earth line. We also obtained the open magnetic field distribution on the Sun by performing a potential field source surface extrapolation to the corona. It was found that the CMEs generally move away from the open magnetic field regions. The CME-coronal hole interaction must be widespread in the declining phase, and may have a significant impact on the geoeffectiveness of CMEs.

cdaw.gsfc.nasa.gov...

Second of all, there might be a cme directed at Earth, but if Earth's magnetic field at that moment is strong in the region the cme hits, what do you think will happen?

What would happen if a smaller cme hits Earth at a time when the magnetic field of Earth is weaker?

BTW Chad... did you even look if these flares were directed at Earth?...

04/11/03 – X28+
This solar flare was observed by NASA’s GOES satellite system and is the strongest solar flare recorded to date. It was not directed directly at Earth, but did cause some radio blackouts.

layhitters.wordpress.com...