There is a 26% chance of a significant earthquake after an X class solar flare

I have compiled a list showing the 30 most powerful earth directed solar flares recorded since 1976.

I then went through these dates to find out if any earthquakes occurred after these significant solar flares, a typical flare will reach earth within 2-3 days, with the largest known (1859) reaching earth in 18 hours, so my criteria was two days after the flare and the following two days after that to find my data.

Here are the results:

RANK DATE SIZE COMMENTS
1 04/11/03 X28+ Nothing of significance
2 02/04/01 X20.0 Nothing of significance
2 16/08/89 X20.0 6.1 Etheopia Aug 20
3 28/10/03 X17.2 7.0 Japan Oct 31
4 07/09/05 X17.0 Nothing of significance
5 06/03/89 X15.0 6.6 Malawi Apr 10
5 11/07/78 X15.0 Nothing of significance
6 15/04/01 X14.4 6.7 Solomon Islands Apr 19
7 24/04/84 X13.0 Nothing of significance
7 19/10/89 X13.0 Nothing of significance
8 15/12/82 X12.9 7.4 Tonga Islands Dec 19
9 06/06/82 X12.0 Nothing of significance
9 01/06/91 X12.0 Nothing of significance
9 04/06/91 X12.0 Nothing of significance
9 06/06/91 X12.0 6.5 North Atlantic Ridge Jun 10
9 11/06/91 X12.0 6.5 South Sandwich Islands Jun 15
9 15/06/91 X12.0 Nothing of significance
10 17/12/82 X10.1 Nothing of significance
10 20/05/84 X10.1 Nothing of significance
11 29/10/03 X10.0 Nothing of significance
11 25/01/91 X10.0 Nothing of significance
11 09/06/91 X10.0 Nothing of significance
12 09/07/82 X 9.8 Nothing of significance
12 29/09/89 X 9.8 Nothing of significance
13 22/03/91 X 9.4 5.5 Northeast China Mar 25
13 06/11/97 X 9.4 Nothing of significance
14 24/05/90 X 9.3 Nothing of significance
15 05/12/06 X 9.0 Nothing of significance
15 06/11/80 X 9.0 Nothing of significance
15 02/11/92 X 9.0 Nothing of significance

Only 8 out of the 30 fitted the criteria (28%).

To add to this further the largest magnitude earthquake from this list was a 7.4.

On average (since 1900) we will get a 7.0 - 7.9 magnitude earthquake 15 times a year.

So, despite the various theories connecting solar flares and earthquakes being thrown about, the cold hard facts and numbers makes me think it's all a load of doo doo

Less than 30% is way too low for any correlation IMHO





Sources:
earthquake.usgs.gov...
www.spaceweather.com...
earthquake.usgs.gov...

Good analysis man!

But throw in ELEnin and Honda and thats a nasty cocktail of forces and winds etc

Can only wait and see my friend..

S+F 4 U!

I wonder if you took the X-class flare out of the equation and replaced it with say Tuesday's if the numbers would vary all that much?
I doubt it.

reply to post by pazcat


If we lowered the criteria of solar flares, and the magnitude of earthquakes,in theory the percentage rate would rise, but only because of the increased amounts of lesser flares (solar cycle pending) and earthquakes.

Comparing significant flares with significant quakes removes the chaff from the wheat and paints a clearer picture.

Of course though, there may or may not be other factors involved, as I'm sure someone will point out.

But we can only work with what we got.

reply to post by Chadwickus


Very much like the forecast's of Piers Corbyn.

He factors in Solar weather to Earth systems too.

Cosmic...

reply to post by Chadwickus


S+F

It's good to see someone using available data and common sense for a change instead of fear mongering with doomsday prophecies!!

Earthquakes, Solar Flares, Tsunamis, Storms, you name it it has happened before and it will happen again, it's just the natural life cycle of the earth.

reply to post by grindhouzer



Unless they're bigger and/or closer than the moon, I don't see how a comet/asteroid can influence the earth to be honest.

reply to post by Chadwickus


What about variations in the magnetic field?

I don't think these things cause earthquakes but they may advance the time line..

Truth is, with all our technical know how, we still know so little about our earth..

reply to post by backinblack


if I recall, the magnetic field can be influenced by solar and cosmic particles, the stronger the solar particles, the less cosmic particles come in.

Earth needs an active, flaring sun to sustain a strong magnetic field.

Would the direction of the flare have any bearing on the effect ? Say a M class straight at us as opposed to a X class in a different direction ! .peace

reply to post by the2ofusr1


Direction plays a big part in the intensity of the geomagnetic storms, as does the flare's location on the sun,

reply to post by Cosmic4life


What predictions does Piers Corbyn make?

I've heard the name before but know nothing of him.

reply to post by grindhouzer


You do realize that Comet Honda is on an elliptical orbit and comes by Earth every 5.26 years. It's a simple comet. That's all. People need to stop the fearmongering.

Have you heard of Ken Ring here in Nz? He's an amateur weather/moon man and would agree with the OP. He also reckons theres an extra chance of an earthquake if a solar flare happens during a full moon or new moon and especially if the moon is at its closest proximity to the earth.
Ken Predicted the sept eathquake here and the Feb one that devastated Christchurch, he then said another one was likely around Feb 20th, probably a big one, tho only a 5.1 occured.
Ken was accused of panicking people etc as alot of people left the city for a few days during that time. He's also said that about 18th April is another time that a larger than normal earthquake MAY happen, time will tell.
He's had a rough ride in the media over here, however he has alot of fans and the local farmers swear by his weather predictions, and organize their hay making by his weather reports!!!

reply to post by Beaufromnz


Well that's the thing, 26% is a very low probability and can probably be attributed to coincidence, despite being the biggest recorded flares, the earthquakes aren't huge.

reply to post by Chadwickus


And once again Chadwickus you fail to understand that it is not only high solar activity that causes earthquakes... The evidence points to the fact that FLUCTUATIONS, either up or down, in solar activity does affect seismic as well as magmatic activity.

When the sun's activity is low, our heliosphere gets weaker, allowing more interstellar dust, high energy particles, radiation, etc, into the Solar System, which affects climate, as well as seismic and magmatic activity.

reply to post by ElectricUniverse


Oh snap!

2nd

reply to post by ElectricUniverse


So.....an X flare isn't considered a fluctuation?

I doubt there is anything more likely to cause fluctuations in the magnetosphere like an X flare, wouldn't you agree?

reply to post by Chadwickus


I'll ask you the same thing I asked Phage..

Are you certain that Solar or magnetic events do NOT affect earthquakes?

Originally posted by Chadwickus
So.....an X flare isn't considered a fluctuation?

I doubt there is anything more likely to cause fluctuations in the magnetosphere like an X flare, wouldn't you agree?

Depending on what else was happening that day/year.

Yes, what had been happening during that day, and longer period of time during that solar cycle also affects whether or not an earthquake would occur.

www.abovetopsecret.com...