Critical New Quake Could Mean Impending Disaster For Japan

Guys there is MAJOR motion going on right now...constant. You need to jump on my thread...getting screen shot.

Originally posted by westcoast
Guys there is MAJOR motion going on right now...constant. You need to jump on my thread...getting screen shot.

I think westcoast means this one: www.abovetopsecret.com...

Ten minute earthquake???

But what does it MEEEEEAN Basel?

Earth Quake Really ruin All things in Japan.

Originally posted by CaDreamer
i say we help Japan evacuate the entire island chain ... give em a couple of states in america...i love the Japanese folks and welcome them here.

The white-wingers would go into an apoplectic rage over that! It would slash their demographic by about 25% to a bare majority of about 52.9%.

reply to post by drakus

You've asked for our thoughts on the world quake map you posted. Allowing for the huge Japan quake on March 11, the others that basically outline the Pacific plate's "ring of fire" are nothing extraordinary. It's a fairly typical image of what we see for this part of the world.

Here's a screenshot image I took one month ago on Feb 17, 2011:


Now compare this to the one below, that I took just a few minutes ago:


(Note: the full title of these maps is "Latest Earthquakes in the World -- Past 7 days". I have trimmed the images to make them fit more easily. You can check the latest image on USGS any time at THIS LINK.)

Comments: except for Japan, there is not a lot of difference in the distribution or number of quakes. Note the February map shows 202 quakes, while the March 17 (today's) map shows 702 quakes. The difference is largely because of the huge number of quakes in Japan. (Over 500 are displayed on the Japan region maps as of today. Go HERE to see the latest map for the subject region of Japan.)

If we exclude the "localized" effects of the March 11 Japan quake, the total number of quakes around the world in the past 7 days (at these levels) is very similar to what it was a month ago. And that figure is pretty consistent with what it has been over the longer period as well.

I must emphasize that this in no way lessens my concern that another large quake might be imminent, either in the Japan region or elsewhere. The almost constant shaking in the Japan region could have the effect of further destabilizing other regions and I'm watching several for any signs. But I just wanted to illustrate that for the Pacific "ring of fire" region, it looks pretty much like it usually does.

Another member mentioned the USA and was concerned by the number of quakes showing for California and also other places like Nevada. California gets a lot of quakes, though most are rather small. It's not unusual for the SoCal maps to show around 500 to 600 quakes in any given 7-day period -- but I repeat: the majority of these are very small and would not even be noticed by residents in the affected areas. As for the US as a whole, it's not uncommon to have quakes in other regions and if you visit the Quake Watch thread there's some info available on this.

If members need some archived examples of maps and also links to data, then I can do that (I'll just have to dig them up from my files!), but I can assure you that what I've said in the preceding paragraph is the facts.

Best regards,

Mike

Strong tremor warning for Tokyo and surrounding regions being issued on Japanese TV right now! Danger of tsunami. Magnitude of quake not yet announced. Feeling mag 4 (JMA) in Tokyo.

Offshore quake. Will give more info soon.

EDIT: quake is off Tchiba. Magnitude given by JMA is 5.8 Mw. Tsunami warning now withdrawn.

I expect this will get posted on USGS in the next 10 or 15 mins (and they'll probably have it lower at around 5.5 to 5.6.) TIme of Quake 9.32 pm local; 12:32 UTC

EDIT at 12:42 UTC: SCREENSHOT:


Note that the big "4" is the JMA scale for "felt" by people, and this reduces with distance from the quake's epicenter. Must not be confused with the internationally-used moment magnitude (Mw) scale which they give as 5.8

New One
earthquake.usgs.gov...
Magnitude 5.6
Date-Time

* Thursday, March 17, 2011 at 12:32:02 UTC
* Thursday, March 17, 2011 at 09:32:02 PM at epicenter

Location 35.523°N, 140.744°E
Depth 21 km (13.0 miles)
Region NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
Distances

* 91 km (57 miles) E (100°) from TOKYO, Japan
* 97 km (60 miles) SSE (166°) from Mito, Honshu, Japan
* 172 km (107 miles) S (185°) from Iwaki, Honshu, Japan

Location Uncertainty horizontal +/- 15.3 km (9.5 miles); depth +/- 1.3 km (0.8 miles)
Parameters NST=239, Nph=239, Dmin=280.5 km, Rmss=0.63 sec, Gp=112°,
M-type="moment" magnitude from initial P wave (tsuboi method) (Mi/Mwp), Version=8
Source

* U.S. Geological Survey, National Earthquake Information Center:
World Data Center for Seismology, Denver

Event ID usc0002522

reply to post by Starwise

Starwise posted the USGS data just before me so I've removed my copy.

This 5.6 is the quake that I've posted about just above the post by Starwise.

As I expected USGS has given a slightly lower magnitude than JMA has stated.

Here's something we should take note of and tip our hats to the Japanese:
They began to announce the first warning for this quake before the shaking even started in the TV studio in Tokyo. In other words, it was within ten seconds! They just break into the program and make the announcement.
-- Within one minute, they had the estimates for shindo (local shaking) on a map onscreen and advised a shaking estimate of 4 for Tokyo. (Moderate and not serious: it might feel strong, but in Japan, it's not considered all that bad!). They also issued the first advisory of a possible tsunami.
-- Within two minutes, they had the map showing the epicenter.
-- Within three minutes, they had the magnitude of the quake posted and were able to advise that JMA had withdrawn the tsunami warning.

Now that is keeping your public informed!

NOTE: they are now advising of another mag 5.8 slightly further north. (At 9:54 pm Japan time, 12:54 pm UTC.)
No tsunami warning has been issued for this event.
Within 10 or 15 minutes, this should also be on USGS. (Probably again as a mag 5.5 to 5.6)
ETA: Nope. USGS has it as a 5.9. See post below.

USGS has it as a 5.9. USGS
Magnitude 5.9 - NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
2011 March 17 12:54:52 UTC

* Details
* Maps

Earthquake Details

* This event has been reviewed by a seismologist.

Magnitude 5.9
Date-Time

* Thursday, March 17, 2011 at 12:54:52 UTC
* Thursday, March 17, 2011 at 09:54:52 PM at epicenter

Location 36.766°N, 141.307°E
Depth 25.1 km (15.6 miles) set by location program
Region NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
Distances

* 49 km (31 miles) SE (133°) from Iwaki, Honshu, Japan
* 86 km (53 miles) ENE (59°) from Mito, Honshu, Japan
* 131 km (81 miles) SE (145°) from Fukushima, Honshu, Japan
* 186 km (115 miles) NE (48°) from TOKYO, Japan

Location Uncertainty horizontal +/- 14.9 km (9.3 miles); depth fixed by location program
Parameters NST= 94, Nph= 96, Dmin=279.4 km, Rmss=1.01 sec, Gp= 72°,
M-type="moment" magnitude from initial P wave (tsuboi method) (Mi/Mwp), Version=6
Source

* U.S. Geological Survey, National Earthquake Information Center:
World Data Center for Seismology, Denver

Event ID usc000252e
*******************************************************************
I guess they like to keep us guessing...

reply to post by JustMike


Yes, all true. People need this on the west coast and in the New Madrid area. The NM cooperative seismic network has so many problems though, I wouldn't depend on it. Can rarely get any stations to maintain steady connection to the network.

In the meantime, notice on the USGS map where this quake was:
earthquake.usgs.gov...

They are making their way closer and closer to that southern subduction zone. I just can't understand how they are not sounding the alarm on this, in context to the massive activity north.

reply to post by TrueAmerican

Yes, that was why I was saying that we need to take our hats off to the Japanese. They are incredibly well organized in getting quake info out to the public. They've had this public warning system in place for three years now, and even when the warning may only come seconds before the quake actually hits, that could make a huge difference.

I did a little experiment. I sat in my living room and had the TV on, and at the same time I had a kettle on the hob of the gas stove in the kitchen. Then I pretended that an announcer broke into the program to announce a quake warning. I don't have a big house, but even so, it took me about 4 seconds to grab my mobile phone then get from the living room to the kitchen and switch off the gas, and less than five seconds later I was in my "safety zone" in another room.

That's what Japanese people are taught to do the moment the warning is given if it's a "big one": if possible, switch off the gas fires (or electric stove) then take cover. Not good being alive but trapped in a house that's now burning down all around you. Granted, it won't always help because of ruptured mains but anything that improves your odds has to be worthwhile.

Surely this could be done in the USA? It's not that hard... The USGS has people on duty all the time, they have the equipment... It's only a matter of organization.

Sooner or later, there'll be a big quake somewhere in the San Andreas fault system. It's a given. And sooner or later -- hopefully a lot later -- there'll be another megathrust event on the Cascadia which could be a mag 9 or even bigger, just as it's done before. And yes, a major event in the New Madrid zone (or Wabash valley zone) is always on the cards.

You know it. Those of us who follow this sort of thing know it. USGS knows it. The various state governments know it. I just cannot understand what they're waiting for.

You live there, TA. You understand the mentality of those in office far better than I ever could. What's holding them back? Can't they just take a leaf from the Japanese book in this case? The warnings work. They help to save lives. Far from panicking people, they do the opposite. Knowing what's going is always better than knowing nothing.

Or have I just got this completely wrong, and there's a reason why this warning system just wouldn't work in the US?

Mike

Originally posted by TrueAmerican
They are making their way closer and closer to that southern subduction zone. I just can't understand how they are not sounding the alarm on this, in context to the massive activity north.

Sorry, I missed responding to this in my other post but frankly the point you've raised is so crucial that it needs a separate reply anyway.

I guess we have to take into account the fact that Japanese people are very used to earthquakes. It's simply part of their history and for centuries, it even affected their culture in terms of architecture and medicine. Houses were built with thin, shoji walls because in a quake, there was less chance of people being injured when their homes collapsed. It also made it possible to rebuild houses within a matter of days. Likewise, they developed remarkably effective medical treatments for burns -- as burns were common in quakes -- and also had great skill with setting broken bones, all of this long before Europeans arrived there in the latter part of the 16th century.

So much of their culture is still based around the philosophy that although they live in the Land where the Gods came down to earth, sometimes the earth will shake and the harbor waves (tsunami) will come. Whoever will be taken, will be taken. Shikata ga nai... (Nothing can be done about it...) It's something like que sera sera. Fatalistic to a degree, but not negative. They have millennia of culture that is based upon accepting what happens, dealing with its consequences, then moving on. It's part of their concept of maintaining dignity in the face of adversity.

This is one reason why it's very difficult for TV journalists in Japan to interview people who have suffered tragedy. If a person is suffering terrible grief, the Japanese cultural standard is that you do not go and comfort that person. This will only make them feel worse, because their suffering is private and in most cases, they vastly prefer to be alone or only with very close family or friends. To show their suffering on TV is pushing the boundaries of what is acceptable to the Japanese people...

The same goes for openly stating what may even be patently obvious. Even if it is something very negative -- like discussing the possible strong links between current quake activity and what this may portend -- the tendency is to edge around it, to make statements that hint at it but where the listeners need to read between the lines. So, when the spokseperson for JMA says there is no connection between what happened last Friday and recent events on land near Shizuoka, the very fact that he said this is something to take note of. Sure, he was responding to a direct question, but that question should not even have been asked in such a direct way. So, he gives a direct answer, and that is so totally out of the norm that Japanese ears prick up and they say, "A-haaa!" and they know immediately that the Honorable Scientist has just told them to beware.

When I made my comments the other day on this subject, I was hoping that what I said would be understood for what it was: the western reaction. The fact of the matter is, though, that the JMA spokesperson made it absolutely clear to the Japanese people, and this is what he meant when you read between the lines: "I am saying categorically that there is no connection. You all know that we never make such blunt and direct statements about such grave matters. So you know I am saying much more."

So, after my long answer (and my apologies for it, TA!), my short answer is this: the Japanese people know full well that they have been given a very clear warning by their Honorable Scientist from the most highly respected Japan Meteorological Agency. They were given similar warnings by those who have been battling the problems at the nuclear power stations. When one at first said that "the cooling is not proceeding as planned", that was a HUGE warning.

In Japan, the official answer is almost never as plain and simple as it appears on the surface. We always need to look below the surface and consider all the circumstances, as well as the position the person has in society.

To continue:

When the revered Emperor of Japan appeared on TV live and made a speech, this was the first time such a thing had ever happened in Japan. The Emperor does not give live speeches on TV.

The fact that He did is very, very telling indeed. He told the Japanese people that He is praying for them. But it is known that He always prays for them and for His nation. The fact that He said this is incredibly important: the Emperor was giving a warning. He is obviously kept well informed -- by people who do not dare to make false statements to Him. The fact that the most revered Emperor appeared live on TV is more significant than anything else that has been announced by anyone.

Let me please repeat this as it's very important:
The Emperor of the Land of the Rising Sun has never made a live speech to the Japanese people on TV before. His statements are always recorded and then released later. When I learned that He had done this, I thought: "Ohhh myyy God..." because just the fact that He did this was so unbelievable.

The fact that He went on TV live was to indicate to the people of His nation that the subject of His speech was so urgent that not even He could delay His statement. The Emperor never hurries anything. It is not dignified to hurry.

The Emperor (relative to what is traditional for Himself) hurried -- and if you know anything of the Japanese and their reverence for Him, that is just absolutely mind-blowing.

And I can guarantee to you all that the people of His nation, well versed as they are in reading between the lines, immediately understood why their Emperor had taken this unprecedented step. They do not ignore statements from their revered Emperor. Some would have His speech memorized word-for-word. All of them appreciate the import of His extraordinary action in breaking from tradition, because tradition is everything.

They have been warned!

Some have asked, "If there is such danger in Tokyo and its regions, why has the Emperor not left for a distant place?"

The answer is simple: the Emperor will do whatever He decides to do. In any case, the Emperor has Family. He has an Heir, and if his Heir and the Heir's family choose (on the Emperor's polite suggestion) to go on a visit to a distant city to observe perhaps some early blossoms, or to pay a visit to a particular holy shrine, then they will go. No-one will openly question their motives, but everyone will get the message loud and clear.

This is Japan, and this is the way things are done.

Mike

Because it costs money and they profit off the destruction as well. That is why things are not built up to code. Sad but true. We are not a community such as Japan appears to be. One reason I am for a resource based economy.

Originally posted by JustMike
reply to post by TrueAmerican

 

Surely this could be done in the USA? It's not that hard... The USGS has people on duty all the time, they have the equipment... It's only a matter of organization.

Sooner or later, there'll be a big quake somewhere in the San Andreas fault system. It's a given. And sooner or later -- hopefully a lot later -- there'll be another megathrust event on the Cascadia which could be a mag 9 or even bigger, just as it's done before. And yes, a major event in the New Madrid zone (or Wabash valley zone) is always on the cards.

You know it. Those of us who follow this sort of thing know it. USGS knows it. The various state governments know it. I just cannot understand what they're waiting for.

You live there, TA. You understand the mentality of those in office far better than I ever could. What's holding them back? Can't they just take a leaf from the Japanese book in this case? The warnings work. They help to save lives. Far from panicking people, they do the opposite. Knowing what's going is always better than knowing nothing.

Or have I just got this completely wrong, and there's a reason why this warning system just wouldn't work in the US?

Mike

There might be an earthquake sometime in the near future but I think the places highest at risk will most likely Alaska and California!

reply to post by JustMike


Thank you Justmike for your answers!...I so appreciate!....Have a wonderful day/night wherever you are!

And another 3.7 on the western edge:

www.jma.go.jp...

Great replies JustMike!

The area outlined its activity boundaries early on, and has been filling in the blanks since. Unfortunately Tokyo is sitting directly in the middle of a potential expansion spot. A spot already closely bordered by two bigger quakes. If you look at the map it's amazing how the activity has stopped short of Tokyo, almost as if it's pausing to give the city a last warning. But seismic activity has toned down some. Gives hope.

reply to post by JustMike


Hmm, that was most informing, thank you.
I'm a "science-friendly" human, but plate mechanics isn't my cup of tea specially...

So, As I understand the place to look now is the "triple frontier" south of tokio, right?

reply to post by CaDreamer


I agree CaDreamer. The whole island is about the size of two of our states put together, and although a great influx, I think they would be a great contribution to recreation and innovation in American society.

reply to post by RANDOMguess


No offense, but if you want to pinpoint such a word as, "curse" on a people or nation, skip the two and put it on our world. In fact just as we all beheld, the victims that floated alongside their homes, boats, and vehicles, didn't have much of a choice at all. And so it is with every inhabitant of this earth in which we all reside. Cursed or uncursed, we are all here along for the ride.

reply to post by majesticgent


An electrifying brain you have there Majesticgent. In regards to the catastrophic event that we have been beholders of, I too would hope the same, that there won't be more events as such to follow. I hope that the leaders in all the world will see the importance of extending a welcoming hand of empathy, if such a crisis unfolds.