Welcome to the shooting gallery: fireball incidence 2005:1.28/day 2011:4.94/day

From your post:

Originally posted by apacheman

While the 1999 meteor exploded at a height of 32kms, last night's meteor would have burnt up at a significantly higher altitude, Dr Christie said.

Bolding added for apacheman's information.


So you post one report where an observer, who "has seen lots of meteors" reports that "this was uncommon in brightness" and he thought "some pieces survived impact" ...when there was no impact. (a very common mistake made by inexperienced observers) Followed by the post above, which contradicts your theory that these meteors are making it deeper into the atmosphere.

I don't deny that what the person saw was bright, since I know myself how bright meteors can be, but brightness in itself is no indication that anything reached the ground. In fact, as I posted before in this thread, there is good evidence to suggest that meteors that are bright, are actually more likely to be completely consumed. just as the shuttle has to reenter at a favorable angle/speed. Too fast or too steep, and they "burn up".

The difference in speed is probably a much larger factor than time in this case,
as it is the speed that is the important factor in kinetic energy. You can see
this in actual meteoroids: fast meteoroids don't make it to the ground and are
gone in a second: slow ones that take seconds or even tens of seconds do make it
and drop meteorites. There, time and distance travelled clearly is not the
factor in the eventual percentage of ablation (as the slow ones taking long
times are the ones that are less ablated in the end): speed is. The slower the
speed, the higher the chance of survival.

With 7.5 km/s at the start, you are actually already close to the speed where
ablation stops (it stops at approximately half that speed). So I suspect that
ablation already isn't that effective at that speed to begin with, compared to
meteoroid speeds.

- Marco

Dr Marco Langbroek Dutch Meteor Society (DMS)


Just because a few more fireballs are being reported, as nda11 pointed out so rightly, does not mean it is not normal, and within expected variation. Without more data going back over many years, giving us a baseline, we don't know if fireball rates are increasing or not.

As I have said time and time again, there is nothing that strikes me (or anyone else who has studied this subject) as unusual about the reports we are seeing at the moment.

As you posted directly above, there is an increase in bright fireballs during this part of the year every year.

Bill Cooke, who wrote the article you posted above also has access to the same data we have been discussing here, and is well aware of the discussion on the subject (he is a meteor observing list subscriber), yet he makes no mention of fireball rates "increasing each year". Don't you think he would if there was evidence for it?

Originally posted by apacheman

"These types of meteors are spotted around the world about once a day and it's just a matter of being in the right place at the right time. It was a lovely clear night last night and it was relatively early, so many people would have seen it."

[url=http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10715902]http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10715902[/ur l]

Once a day globally, eh?

As I've been reporting, there's way more than that just over the US alone.

You'd think that all reporters could find someone who was up to date with the subject wouldn't you? In many cases that is not the case, sadly.

As I've been saying for years here on ATS, bright fireballs are a lot more common that most people (who don't have a direct involvement in the subject, which can include man experienced (in their own field)astronomers) think. All you have to do is go out and spend time looking up... just as many of us do, and we are not seeing what you are telling us is happening...

How many hours would you say you spent observing specifically for meteors in the last year? I estimate I spent around 22-23, which was a slow year for me. Even so, I observed at least 20 fireball class meteors related to meteor showers, but the brightest two were sporadic (random meteors not related to meteor showers). They were impressive, and stood out amongst all the shower members as being completely different to the hundreds of other meteors observed in the last year.

Last year was no different to me than any other year, in terms of "if you spend time, you will see more meteors, and brighter meteors".

reply to post by C.H.U.D.


I bolded it as a typical statement from experienced observers this year.

Look, the reported data show an increase.

Period.

I say it's a real increase, you say a reporting aberration due to "more people watching".

I've shown the average number of observers per report is increasing, accounting for the "more people" part in a logical way.

So far you've offered ZERO proof that your theory is accurate, just endless opinion and unsupported assertions.

I've no interest in a p'ing contest, I'm merely reoprting the data as they come in, with the occasional analysis based on it.

As far as skywatching goes, last year probably around 15-20 hours. Over my lifetime? Huge amounts, due to nightwatches and operations in the military (the sky was scanned frequently for a variety of reasons; many, many hours scanning the sky on a shrimpboat in the Gulf of Mexico; sitting in the hot tub at night watching the sky with my lady...

I know the sky in a way most don't, and have a vastly larger personal database of experience to draw on and compare to than most people have.

What's the problem with acknowledging that we are indeed experiencing more this year?

Doesn't mean that it's forever, just now..numbers go up, they go down, and right now they seem to be on the upswing.

There are more this year, reported by more people, yes but the average per report is pretty stable, rising only slightly. If you were correct, the average number of observers per event would be far higher than what it is.

So offer some proof of your theory or deal with the facts, as reported.

Been a while since I've updated this, but the numbers are looking steady:

As of the 24th of May, 3.66 fireballs per day as reported by AMS.

Astronomers at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center have recorded the brightest meteor seen by their network in almost three years of operation. On May 20, 2011, at 9:47 p.m. CDT, a six-foot diameter fragment of an unknown comet entered the atmosphere approximately 66 miles above the city of Macon, Ga., traveling northwest at a speed of some 24 miles per second (86,000 mph). At this velocity, the boulder-sized "dirty snowball" possessed an energy or striking power somewhere between 500-1000 tons of TNT.

www.sott.net... -US-NASA-Sky-Cameras-Capture-Man-Sized-Meteor-Over-Macon-Georgia

Witnesses describe a fireball that looked as big as the moon.

An enormous meteor was caught on video as it flew over Cranbrook early on Saturday morning.

A video camera on the roof of the College of the Rockies caught the meteor's flight in a nine-second clip that you can view on the Townsman's Facebook page.

Physics lab technician Rick Nowell described the sky as the meteor passed over us.

"The dark night sky of Cranbrook was lit up like daylight early Saturday morning at 2:17 a.m. when a huge meteor rocketed overhead. Appearing as a dim dot at first, high to the north, it rapidly grew into a big, white ball as big as the moon, with a tail behind it," described Nowell.

"It flared into brilliance, lighting up the whole sky and layers of white clouds to the south-western horizon. Within four seconds the flare sank as it moved a bit south of west, sinking down into the clouds, towards the setting moon and Creston. Then a dull rumble of thunder followed after it."

www.sott.net... te-crosses-Cranbrook-Sky

it was the brightest falling star I had ever seen and appeared to burn up as it fell into the atmosphere causing the color changes and it burst and then gone after it looked like a falling star; it turned to a blue trail then orange with what appeared to be a small explosion; then gone it was the brightest falling star I had ever seen and appeared to burn up as it fell into the atmosphere causing the color changes and it burst and then gone glowing blue train until it turned orange and appeared to break apart; the gone

This was WAY COOL!!!! It seemed to move in slow mo tion. It was just amazing!!!!! We were inside and saw the green fireball from a window. We did not see where it ended due to the obstruction of the window. This was WAY COOL!!!! It seemed to move in slow motion. It was just amazing!!!!! It was a glowing train the entire time

This is an urban area with very high amounts of li ght pollution. I was inside, and witnessed this through a window. After the event ended, I experimented with my perspective to make sure that I had not seen the reflection of some external light off the glass. However, I was not moving when the event happened, and the light was moving rapidly, and the green color is unlike anything in the vicinity (there are no traffic signals in that view). I cannot exclude the possibility that it was a firework set off by one of the thousands of people who live nearby. It was the right speed, brightness, and fading for a fireball (I last saw one in ~1999). I happened to see the reentry of the Stardust spacecraft in the same approximate sky in 2006 (but that moved from local NNW to ENE); this was much slow-moving than that. There is definitely a strong possibility that I witnessed a dying firework; I heard no sound before or after, but then I was inside with closed windows. Fireworks, amateur and illegal, are not rare in my neighborhood, but 12:54 am is an odd time, and there were no sounds or follow-ups.

At over 50 years of age, I have seen many falling stars, meteor showers, and at least one comet but I have never seen anything like this sighting. It was both incredible and unforgettable. It was very low in the sky and very bright with a neon like glow. there were a couple of flashes as it streaked across the sky and then just seemed to burn out and disappear. At over 50 years of age, I have seen many falling stars, meteor showers, and at least one comet but I have never seen anything like this sighting. It was both incredible and unforgettable. It was very low in the sky and very bright with a neon like glow. narrow glowing train

www.amsmeteo... rs.org/fireball2/public.php?start_date=2011-01-01&end_date=2011-06-30&state=&event_id=&submit=Find+Reports

The AMS reports all refer to different fireballs on different dates...there are far too many to list them all, this is just a random sampling.

In view of the extraordinary weather we've been having, I am more certain than ever that I'm correct, and C.H.U.D. is sadly mistaken. The increase by year since 2005 has been significant: 466>515>587>726>693>947, and 530 so far this year. If the trend continues we will have over 1K fireballs reported over the US alone this year. The amount of extra energy that has been accumulating in the atmosphere must be enormous, as evidenced by the huge number and severity of tornadoes this year. Every fireball adds some energy to the atmosphere; if we are getting more and bigger this year, as the reports seem to indicate, then the added energy would nicely account for the energetic weather we've been experiencing. Unfortunately, it also means no letup in the severe weather, rather, it means an increase in it.

Let's hope that we are passing through a thick patch of space rocks, and that we are nearly past it: I shudder to think of the consequences if we are merely just entering the thick patch and the fireballs will get bigger and more frequent. That would mean the weather is just beginning to get wild, with worse to come.

It certainly bears watching and preparing to deal with worsening weather conditions.

I'll be maintaining this thread on at least a biweekly basis for as long as I can.

I found an interesting paper that posits recurring bombardment episodes due to comet disintegrations that produce streams of impacts over short periods. This would fit with what we are currently experiencing, and may well portend a coming episode of heavy meteor bombardment. A very interesting read, and quite relevant to the subject at hand.

journalofcosmology.com...

There is now compelling evidence that an exceptionally large (50-100 km) comet entered a short-period, Earth-crossing orbit some time in the Upper Palaeolithic, and underwent a series of fragmentations. During this disintegration the Earth was probably subjected to occasional episodes of intense bombardment. Such an episode might constitute a sensible astronomical framework for understanding the postulated catastrophe at 12,900 BP. Concentrations of sub- kilometre bodies may still exist in meteor streams and constitute a significant hazard. Such bodies are difficult to detect, and current deflection and mitigation strategies do not seem adequate to deal with them. For larger bodies, a paradox exists in that the number of comets expected to be thrown into Halley-type orbits (periods 20-200 years) is at least two orders of magnitude greater than observed. The fate of these comets is unknown, raising the prospect that a significant population of dark Earth-crossing comets may exist and adding further uncertainty to impact hazard assessments. Discrete bombardment episodes are evident in the well-dated impact record of the past 250 Myr and several coincide with transitions between geological periods. There is evidence that these episodes have a ∼ 35-37 Myr periodicity, which may be connected to Galactic disturbances of the Oort comet cloud. The threshold for periodicity begins for impact craters >∼ 40 km in diameter; since this is also the threshold which impact ejecta create worldwide conflagration, it again implies that comets are a significant, if not dominant, component of the global impact hazard.

Latest:

613 fireballs over the US reported by 1935 people/

Daily average: 3.52

Monthly average: 102.17

it was unlike anything i seen before i was leaning out my window when i seen it, i tried to look for it but there is brush and wooded area nearby. It was enormous the size of softball so im assuming from the distance from me to it, it had to be the size of a basketball when it landed. There was no tail, train or any other type of trail just a round mass the glowed bluish green. It also didn't seem to burn out or shrink in size as it fell just maintained a steady ark.o yes and there was a distinct burning smell in there air but it didn't smell normal like plastic, wood or even metal it was almost like the smell of garbage and gas if that makes any sense to you.

This was a Sentinel Camera Capture at 10:19:43Z, - an additional bolide separate from the 11:47 PM event over Texas. Initial and final Az/Alt estimations are: 246/10 & 241/06 True Azimuth. Concurrent capture on Meteor Scatter from USAF Space Radar at 10:19:50Z . Video can be viewed here: www.facebook.com... Composite image and meteor scatter spectrum can be viewed here: www.facebook.com... Multiple fragmentation in the short event. Sentinel Camera capture. This was a Sentinel Camera Capture at 10:19:43Z, - an additional bolide separate from the 11:47 PM event over Texas. Initial and final Az/Alt estimations are: 246/10 & 241/06 True Azimuth. Concurrent capture on Meteor Scatter from USAF Space Radar at 10:19:50Z . Video can be viewed here: www.facebook.com... Composite image and meteor scatter spectrum can be viewed here: www.facebook.com...
Event 606

My mom and I were out walking when the meteor inst antly caught our attention. We stayed a few minutes to see if more would follow, but none did. There were two almost sphere-like pieces which broke off and then disintegrated. Both were white in color. I've stayed up quite late and woken up in the wee hours of the morning to watch meteors, and only once have I seen a fireball with a train bright as this. As it appeared it glowed a brilliant white, then gained an almost green hue to it which grew in intensity. The train then began sparking purple flecks that elongated behind it. The meteor came much lower than previous ones, and at the end began letting off am almost ball shaped debris. Each debris piece disintegrated in one, maybe two seconds. As the ball itself disappeared the train glowed almost effervescently.

all quotes are from reports at ams.org

As of 7 July:

652 fireballs reported over the US by 2002 people.

Avg per day: 3.47

I saw the same type of meteor around the same time last night 7-3-2011, maybe a little later though..just as bright and colorful too. These both happened when no fire works were happening. N/A I saw the same type of meteor around the same time last night 7-3-2011, maybe a little later though..just as bright and colorful too. These both happened when no fire works were happening. The tail was white and very brilliant in color. Was white untl it faded away!

This was a Sentinel Camera Capture on 3 July 2011 @ 05:15:33Z (12:15:33 AM CST). Beautiful, almost full-sky object. Minor fragmentation. Minor persistent trail. Video is posted at www.facebook.com... Composite added to photo album at www.facebook.com... Minor fragmentation can be seen in the video.

I hope that someone else got to see this fireball as well. It was an awesome spectacle the we won't soon forget. I suspect that this fireball was visible to good portion of North America. The fireball began fragmenting about halfway through the event and broke into multiple pieces as it was passing directly overhead. My wife and I thought it was fireworks except it was quiet before and during the event. I hope that someone else got to see this fireball as well. It was an awesome spectacle the we won't soon forget. I suspect that this fireball was visible to good portion of North America. The fireball appeared as a single bright white yellow streak that broke into multiple pieces with glowing red and orange train following the main piece and the broken away pieces.

Here's few links to fireballs elsewhere:

www.sott.net...


The massive "UFO" sighting reported here actually looks like multiple fireballs, although they don't exhibit trails exactly: You decide.

www.sott.net... UFO-Watcher-Documents-Massive-UFO-Sighting

As of 13 July 2011:

672 fireballs reported by 2038 people.


Daily average: 3.46. Monthly average: 112

Daily average, 2005: 1.28 Monthly average 2005: 39

A lone meteor shot from beneath the moon in my vie w at 10:42PM from the front living room window of the house in Huntsville, Texas. The moon will be full in two days. It was headed in a NW direction which might skirt the west side of Huntsville. It was aflame with a slight aurora about it and a 3 to 4 inch tail.

This was one of the most amazing things I've ever seen!!!!!!! Facinating and exciting! Let me start by saying i was at my cabin sitting on my deck when I heard what I thought was the wind rustling the tops of the trees. It struck me Very odd considering no wind blowing what so ever around me. As I was looking at the tree tops through the trees I saw a massive fireball object falling from what seemed like just over the tree tops from the sky. I even called the local dispatch to report it. This was one of the most amazing things I've ever seen!!!!!!! Facinating and exciting! Just a glowing almost fireball, dark out so no smoke seen

I was driving southbound on Route 84 at 70 MPH goi ng down a long decline, when the I noticed the long train just to the right and 10 to 15 degrees above the treeline. I have seen shooting stars before where the train disappears as fast as the star moves, but this train was wider and remained for a duration of 6 - 8 seconds until the front end broke into two smaller light balls and disappeared. I was very suprised by the duration and brighness and from the angle it was clear that it was moving in almost the same direction as my car was travelling. As it fragmented into 2 fragments it got slightly brighter then disappeared. I have seen shooting stars before where the train disappears as fast as the star moves, but this train was wider and remained fo the duration of 6 - 8 seconds until the front end broke into two smaller light balls and disappeared.

It was extremely huge for a metorite in my opinion and very bright and lasted longer than any I've ever seen. I ran inside and turned the local early morning news on and watched for the next 20 minutes hoping to hear something about it. I saw a bright flash of light but it was at the begining of the event out the corner of my eye it was what caught my attention to it. It was extremely huge for a metorite in my opinion and very bright and lasted longer than any I've ever seen. I ran inside and turned the local early morning news on and watched for the next 20 minutes hoping to hear something about it. I was in such shock from how huge it appeared to be and how high in the color spectrum it was that I didn't notice if there was a trail after it disapeared.

An unknown mass believed to be from outer space on Saturday fell near Kilimambogo and Tala towns. Initially, there were reports of an explosion in Kangundo, Tala, Yatta and Kakuzi before an extra-terrestrial rock fell at around 10 am. Area residents say the loud sound was comparable to a bomb explosion or a crashing aircraft while others felt it was an earthquake. Police and military officers from Thika rushed to the scene at Kiumwiri village, Murang’a county. The military later took away the object for expert analysis. The black smooth rock weighing about five kilos fell at a maize plantation, 60 meters from a nearby homestead, but no one was harmed. Lt Col J.N. Vungo, the commanding officer of the 12th Engineers Battalion, said initial assessment indicate that the object was not manmade and was believed to have come from outer space. “We got conflicting reports from Kilimambogo area indicating that an aircraft had crashed or a bomb had exploded in the area and jointly with the police we mobilised our officers to find out what was happening,” he said. On locating the scene, security personnel sealed off the area, which was attracting curious residents.

“We believe it is a heavenly body, probably a piece of a meteor that may have disintegrated on entering the earth’s atmosphere,” said Lt Col Vungo, who was accompanied by Thika police boss Paul Leting. Mr Vungo said reports from Ndunyu Sabuk area indicated that a bigger object was seen in the skies before it disintegrated after a loud blast. The official said according to witnesses, the object raised a cloud of dust on hitting the ground, was extremely hot and was spinning on impact. “Meteors often lose stability and fly away from their orbit, but they burn out on entering the atmosphere due to friction, Lt Col Vungo said. However, he added that it was a rare occurrence in the East African region. An eye witness Ms Jane Wangui Kibugi said she was only 50 meters away when the object fell. “I saw a cloud of dust and when I went closer I found the black smooth stone, which had dug a hole on the ground,” she said.

hisz.rsoe.hu... O-20110717-31602-KEN

An interesting report from Africa.

Foretaste of the near future?

sorry, haven't had a chance to update lately, so here's the latest:

As of 26 Aug 2011:

912 fireballs over the US averaging 3.83 per day.

A Mitchell police dispatch log that described a "strange sighting near Corsica" shortly before 10 p.m. Tuesday was one of many such meteor sightings, said Mike Buss, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Sioux Falls.

www.sott.net... 9-Corsica-South-Dakota-US-Meteor-flashes-across-area-skies-Tuesday

Blazing with the fury of a mini-sun this amazing video shows the moment a suspected meteor streaked across the sky over the city of Cusco in Peru.

It was captured blasting through the upper levels of the atmosphere at 2pm yesterday afternoon, leaving an iridescent trail in its wake.

Astonished residents watched as the impressive natural phenomena eventually disappeared over the horizon.

Experts believe it may have caused forest fires in the south of the city, which have been ravaged by drought.

www.sott.net... /234074-Meteorite-blasts-across-skies-of-Peru-leaving-forest-fires-in-its-wake

A strange object spotted by residents in the skies above Birżebbuġa on Saturday night could have been a "very bright meteor", also referred to as a fireball, according to the Astronomical Society of Malta.

It has attempted to shed light on the outlandish sighting, described by curious resident Charles Caruana as resembling a "hot air balloon" because it was clearly on fire.

It was about 9 p.m. when he caught sight of it and zoomed off to get hold of his camera, saying it was the size of a car and was neither too high nor too far.

www.sott.net... ought-to-be-a-fireball

Astronomy Ireland (AI) has confirmed that a fireball meteor entered the atmosphere above Ireland in the early hours of Tuesday morning (23 August 2011).

Astronomy Ireland says it has already received dozens of reports of a bright fireball shooting across Irish skies at approximately 12:15 AM on Tuesday. 60-70% of reports received came from the Greater Dublin area with other reports being received from Tipperary, Meath, Cork, Mayo and Kerry.

Only two meteorites have been successfully retrieved on the island of Ireland since the beginning of the 20th century. A meteorite was recovered in Northern Ireland in 1969, while in November 1999 a meteorite fall in County Carlow earned a local woman almost €15,000 when she recovered four egg-sized pieces. Fragments were subsequently donated to the National History Museum in London and Trinity College Dublin

www.sott.net... m-Irish-Fireball

Clearly this is a global phenomenom and is just as clearly an actual increase in the number of fireballs impacting our atmosphere, and NOT just a reporting artifact, i.e., the "more people watching" theory.

As I pointed out earlier, the fireballs are getting bigger, more frequent, and slower, thus penetrating deeper.

I still think we're hitting a patch of more thickly populated space and the intesity will increase.

Heads up, folks!

As of 30 Novembr 2011:

1437 fireballs reported by 4050 people.

www.amsmeteo... rs.org/fireball2/public.php?start_date=2011-01-01&end_date=2011-12-31&state=&event_id=&submit=Find+Reports

Daily average: 4.30. Monthly average: 130.64

Daily average, 2005: 1.28 Monthly average 2005: 39.

The slope of the graph keeps increasing. The amount of energy added to the upper and middle atmosphere must be just immense compared to just a few years ago: approximately triple the norm for many decades.


Another place for reports:

lunarmeteoritehunters.blogspot.com...