Welcome to the shooting gallery: fireball incidence 2005:1.28/day 2011:4.94/day

Sorry for the gap; been busy in the garden.

As of 14 Feb:

208 fireballs reported by 539 people.

Average: 4.62 per day.

Increase since 2005: approximately 350%

This was a Sentinel Software capture at 02:39:59, 7 February 2011. Brightness was probably higher than venus, but not easily measurable because it was a camera capture. Event most likely occurred over Central or North Texas. Video capture can be viewed at www.facebook.com... Composite image and video can be emailed on request.

basically from my location, captured on an all sky camera: see short video at: www.youtube.com... This bolide was preceded by a short fireball and again followed by a second fainter fireball, but these events were in different parts of the sky.

On Feb. 8, at 9:45p.m. I was driving north on Stat e Route 235 near Park Layne, Ohio when something high in the sky caught my eye. I looked and saw a streaking meteor coming straight down directly north. It brightened into a visible burning ball of red/orange fire, then quickly died out into a train of fragmented and smoky pieces. My first impression was how remarkable it was that I could actually see it on fire.

I was lucky enough to have witnessed the incredibl e meteor event in Edmonton 2008 and have since seen some fantastic shooting stars, however, the fireball I saw tonight was by far the largest I've seen since 2008. As you can tell by my map location, I live pretty much in the middle of nowhere and consequently have no interference from alternate light sources. I just happened to be letting my dogs out and my front door faces due south so I got a really good look at it. It seemed almost lazy as it arced towards the earth, lasting much longer than any shooting star. What a rush! I have to thank my dogs for their great timing.

The "streak" appeared to move from the NNE to the SSW. The "head" appeared to be bluish in color with a white trail. The flight was a straight line.

The white light seemed to be headed low across the sky, and suddenly dropped straight down, like it "fell" out of the sky. At first, I thought I had seen a shooting star until it suddenly dropped. It was the brightest white light I have ever seen.

The one I saw was accompanied by 3 others that had gone before it...I saw the last few seconds of the third one before the fourth one was visible.

Another observer may have seen the same meteor (po sted on a message board called freerepublic.com), reporting a green flash at 10:30 pm 2/11/11, but estimating it was travelling toward Charlotte, NC, rather far south and west of my position.

The direction of the fireball seemed to be towards Austin, TX It was the brightest thing that I have ever seen in the sky besides the sun and the moon. I have seen many falling stars but this fireball was much much larger than those. I looked at the news when I got home because I thought maybe an airplane or a satellite had exploded. At first, I also thought that it might be fireworks but I didn't see any other fireworks and this was a very very bright fireball falling to earth. It didn't seem like fireworks either. It happened around 9:24pm.(or close to that)

it was daylight brightblue with green tails broke into 3 or 4 pieces tails had a little red in them direction was east to west lasted 5 to 8 secs

We're not sure if this was a fireball - the durati on of the fall was MUCH longer than a few seconds - we watched for about 5 minutes and it had already crossed most of the sky. The object never appeared to burn out and was still visible 10 degrees above the horizon.

The sparkling character and irregular trail with g reen or blue tints were unusual, and it seemed to fall more slowly than others I have observed. Few stars were showing at the time due to partial cloud cover, but I think Saturn was visible to the north of where I saw this meteor. I was looking up in the sky to the east, toward a mountain ridge about 20 miles away that is more than 1,000 ft higher in elevation than my position the valley. I am not sure where the planetary horizon would be, so judging the altitude is difficult. It was not very high above the mountains. This was distinctly different from other meteors I have observed, and seemingly much closer. If this was a meteor, it is the largest one I have seen. I was driving in the car (motor noise, windows up) and did not hear any sound associated with the meteor.

I am a member of the Chesmont Astronomical Society and a frequent observer of the night time skies. I have participated in Leonid metor counts, Never saw a bight metor/bolide such as this during the day, though.

i thought maybe it was a plane crash or something. i just happened to be looking in the right direction at the right time. it went straight down and was right above tree level at start and then right behind light branch cover. tough to judge the brightness, i would compare it to a lightning bolt. it seemed like it was metallic or mechanical with it being silvery and i thought a bit reflective, then red in color. but very quick, less then second and very fast. out stretched hand, length was 3-4 knuckles.

This fireball popped into our field of vision whil e driving. It was only a sec and was at a step angle, impact angle. It appeared to hit just beyond the tree line, I assume it impacted but we had windows up driving at 65mph so we didn't hear a sound.

As always, each seperate quote refers to a different fireball.

Here are a few links to other relevant reports:

www.sott.net... er-Germany

www.sott.net... makes-sharpest-turn-yet-seen-in-solar-system

www.sott.net...

www.sott.net...

www.sott.net... 3353-Fireball-falls-from-the-sky-and-torches-field-near-Bjelovar-Croatia

lunarmeteoritehunters.blogspot.com...

lunarmeteoritehunters.blogspot.com... ly-superbolide-fireball-meteor_15.html

www.sott.net... -Slammed-Earth-Around-A-D-500-

Thinking this through while I dug in my garden, several things occurred to me, supposing I'm correct, and the increase in reports is due to an actual increase in fireballs.

1. From reading through the comments submitted by observers, two things seem clear: the fireballs are getting larger, and they appear to be moving slower.

If this is true, again if, then more heat and debris per fireball is being injected into the atmosphere. The slower speed would seem to indicate that we are moving into a different patch of spce debris than we are used to encountering, whose orbit seems like an overtaking one, not crossing from the sides or approaching from the front of our orbit.

2. If, and at this point, I'd say it's still a significant if, the increase of observed fireballs is indeed on the order of 350% over 2005, it follows that the unobserved amount of debris impacting the atmosphere has increased proportianately.

Not all all sure how significant this might be, since the atmosphere is a classic "butterfly effect" machine. Most probably it would effect the planet's albedo very slightly. Just another factor to be aware of...in practice it might narrow the window of safety a bit when factored with ash from volcanic eruptions.

3. The immediately obvious consequences of this would be threefold: an increase in thermal energy injected into the upper atmosphere, an increase in shock waves (kinetic energy) disturbing the atmosphere, and an increase in atmospheric dust.

What the combination of those three factors will do is problematical, to say the least, but it would seem at a minimum we could expect some strange weather to continue throughout this year, since more atmospheric energy usually means more and stronger storms.

With all due respect to differing opinions, I will rely on reported data that shows an increase, since the average number of people reporting each incident has risen slightly over time. That increase would probably account for the "more people watching" component.

hisz.rsoe.hu...

A meteorite strike may have led to emergency services receiving reports of a plane crash in the early hours today. Fire crews from Selby, Tadcaster and West Yorkshire were called to the Whitley Bridge area at about 12.20am as they investigated reports an aircraft may have come down in the area. However, the six teams did not find any aircraft which had crashed, and North Yorkshire Fire and Rescue Service said a meteorite strike was possibly the reason for the alert.

As of 14 Feb 2011:

210 fireballs reported by 694 people.

Average: 4.67 per day.

Event number 208 was huge: a daytime fireball reported by an astonishing 185 people. That is at least 10 times the highest number of reports I seen for NIGHTTIME fireballs. That one had to be immense to provoke such a response, yet not a word on msm.

Then there is a follow-on apparent impact in Great Britain a few hours later.

reply to post by apacheman


Today there are many articles popping up in the more mainstream news.
I suppose that a fireball during the day is enough to get folks attention, and the news
can only turn a blind eye for so long...

www.yorkpress.co.uk
www.nbcconnecticut.com

www.myfoxhou ston.com

I am new to this forum and my name is Mike,in Pa. Catasauqua to be specific. What propmpted me to join was this thread. Begining of the year, when the meteor dates were set for January 1st to 3rd?(if I recall), should be at peak. I witnessed 2 (shooting star class) on the 3rd about 7:30pm. I was looking North,about 7:30pm(est).
On the 4th, apprx. the same time, I witnessed my first fireball! I would say, similiar in size to what was just witnessed in Philly. I'll say 3/4 of their accounts. It was heading dead North,7:30ish(pm)(est) Followed the Lehigh river up North. To pin point it, I'm between the River and the lehigh Valley airport.

Originally posted by burntheships
and the news
can only turn a blind eye for so long...

No one has been turning a blind eye, at least not in the way you are suggesting (a coverup).

I guess you didn't see this report in 2009 which was all over CNN/the MSM and even made the news here in the UK ATS thread here

Or this one which exploded over South Africa and also made the MSM.

Both were captured on camera, and that is no coincidence. The MSM is news for the masses, and without footage most people just turn off. As far as the MSM is concerned it's not worth running a story unless there is footage in 99% of cases. This story is the obvious exception, since quite a few people seem to have observed the event.Judging from past experience, unless footage of the event turns up, it will soon be out of the news again to make way for the junk that passes for news these days (Brittany Spears' latest breakdown, etc). It's all about ratings - not a cover-up.

The only reason we are seeing more coverage of these type of events is because there are more cameras (CCTV, all sky meteor camera networks, dash-cams, etc) now than ever before. Without the footage, many of these events would not be making the news. Certainly not the MSM.

reply to post by mugger

Thanks for the report..I checked the AMS dataset, but the only entry for that date doesn't match the time, so it looks like it wasn't reported to them.

Congrats on the sighting. You may want to see if they will still accept a report for that date.

Through 15 February 2011:

217 fireballs reported by 796 people (185! people reported the same daytime fireball of 14 Feb)

Average: 4.72 fireballs a day, mostly over the US alone.

Space gave Canada a Valentine's Day rock on Monday when a piece of asteroid lit up the Calgary morning skyline.

Niel Beckie was travelling westbound on Glenmore Trail just under Crowchild Trail around 6: 55 a.m. when he saw a flash....However, he added the rock probably landed about 300 or 400 kilometres west of the city, either in Revelstoke or Kamloops, and was about 100 kilograms.

"Now how big is a 100 kilogram rock?" asked Hildebrand. "It would be the size of a pillow."

Hildebrand added if researchers could find the rock that hurtled through the atmosphere at about 20 kilometres a second, they would be able to figure out the orbit of the asteroid.

www.calgaryhe... rald.com/Streaking+asteroid+fireball+sets+Monday+morning+skyline+alight/4292238/story.html#ixzz1E8mBoW00

This one from Canada isn't in the AMS dataset either, so far as I can tell, and seems to have hit the ground.

If this one and Mugger's report were to be counted, the average would be 4.76/day.

Through 18 February 2011:

225 fireballs reported by 840 people

Average: 4.59 per day.

moving from north to south, bright as the full moo n, lasted 2-3 seconds, then not visible. Color White.

I can't say for sure it was a "fireball". It w as at the altitude of a plane (where a prop plane would normally fly, maybe 4000 feet). It was a flickering red light that slowly danced through the sky and than faded out without ever really changing altitudes. No tail and no sound. Mysterious for sure!

Heard via Twitter that others saw it. It looked a s though it would strike the Earth. I was preparing for a tidal wave on Lake Michigan

Very cool thing to see. Vivid green.

I saw the glowing object as I was driving across t he bridge. A glowing streak caught my eye. The streak was bright, almost white. Then the streak stopped and changed to almost red before it was too low to see above the tree line. I just hope it didn't strike any houses or business.

As always, each comment refers to a seperate incident.

Also of note:

www.sott.net... right-Fireball-In-Ten-Days-Observed-Over-Italy

details on the Italian bolide:

lunarmeteoritehunters.blogspot.com...

French fireball:

lunarmeteoritehunters.blogspot.com... audens-southern-france-fireball.html

As of 7 Mar 2011, as reported by amsmeteors.org:

287 fireballs reported by 1042 people, an average of 4.35 per day.

To Whom It May Concern; My name is Dennis Qualls a nd I live in Troy, North Carolina. Tonight while we where traveling home my wife and I witnessed what appeared to be a meteorite falling directly towards earths surface. I’ve witnessed meteor showers and shooting comets many times in my life but this one was different than all the rest. It streaked directly from the sky with a bright white glow similar to a meteor but much brighter. It was brighter possibly since it was so close to us compared to something skipping off the stratosphere many miles above us. We believe it made contact with the ground. It was startling enough for me that I instinctively hit the brake peddle. I thought at first it may have been a plane but it was traveling at such an incredible speed and glowed bright white that we knew it came from space. This happened this evening 3/6/2011 at approximately 8:05 PM EST. The location was on the north side of Hwy 49 about 10 – 15 miles west of Asheboro, North Carolina. I’d also be happy to answer any questions via phone, email or in person. Thank You, Dennis Qualls 4273 Hwy 109N Troy, NC 27371 (910) 572-3632 Event 283

It was the largest glowing object aside from Moon/ Sun I've ever observed in the sky! Amazing!

The closest terrestrial description would be like watching a power transformer blow at about 10-15 miles but it traveled over 130 degrees of arc on the horizon before being obscured by a mountain.

Interestingly, I was in a lit kitchen with a fair amount of ambient light glare on the window, so for this event to take my eyes off my lit computer and in this lit kitchen was a magnitude of light that was extreamly bright. Wish I had been out side to see it.

Absolutely amazing. I've seen a few zippy shootin g stars before, but nothing like this. I was so amazed ( and I was driving a car ) that my description is poor, and I didn't pay attention to the clock as to when exactly it was. I'm so glad to know that there are others that saw it. It had a bright glowing trail to it, and seemed to move very slowly in the sky compared the handful of streaking shooting starts that I've seen. It moved nearly straight down, top to bottom, from my vantage point, and lasted maybe 5 seconds. It seemed to die suddenly at the end -- I was expecting to see it gradually fade in brightness I guess -- and I think that I saw a quickly-dimming point light immediately as it ended, although that could have just been my eyes. I couldn't judge the color very well since I was looking through the windsheild glass.

Again, all these descriptions are of different fireballs.

Here's a few useful links I've located for the interested:
US fireball reports:

www.amsmeteo... rs.org/fireball2/public.php?start_date=2011-01-01&end_date=2011-03-07&state=&event_id=&submit=Find+Reports

Live skycamera feeds from the Alabama, Tennessee, and Georgia areas:

fireballs.ndc.nasa.gov...

Founded in 1988, the International Meteor Organization (IMO) is an international scientific non-profit making organization with members all over the world. The IMO was created in response to an ever growing need for international cooperation of amateur meteor work. As such, the IMO's main objectives are to encourage, support and coordinate meteor observing, to improve the quality of amateur observations, to disseminate observations and results to other amateurs and professionals and to make global analyses of observations received world-wide.

:

www.imo.net...

Impact calculator:

www.purdue.edu...

Global reports:

lunarmeteoritehunters.blogspot.com...

Colorado reports:

www.cloudbait.com...

I've found these sites to be quite informative and useful, with further links to more resources.

As of 27 March 2011:

345 fireballs reported by 1216 people, a rate of 4.06 per day.

Observer reports:

it was amazing to observe 1st because i live in th e middle of Brooklyn NY and its hard to see anything some nights because of the light emission from Manhattan, and 2nd because it is partially cloudy so i was fortunate to spot in between 2 massive cloud covers, which also lead me to question if there had been any other possible occurrences/sightings we would not be able to observe due to the cloud cover..

I was driving through neighborhood and saw it thro ugh the tree line. This is the first time I saw one of this larger size, color, brightness, and fast speed. Seemed unusual from the norm so figured i should report it somewhere.

Very bright! I figured I would hear a noise as it went to the ground. The size was very big. There is a dwelling to my north-north-west so I could not see past 10deg from horizon.

I think something made it to the ground.It was on e of the largest fire balls i've very seen that close to the ground.I dont think I saw terminal flash. I have seen star dust floating to the ground like a firefly in my backyard before.I would say it was between the size basketball- or softball

THIS WAS AN AWESOME SITE. I TOLD COWORKERS AS SOON AS I GOT TO WORK. IT WAS THE BIGGEST THING I HAVE EVER SEEN FALL FROM THE SKY! BEAUTIFUL. I HAVE SEEN SMALL ONES IN THE PAST BUT NOTHING TO COMPARE TO THIS MONSTER!

As always, each is about a seperate event. I think the evidence is sufficient to support a thesis of larger, slower, and more frequent fireballs.

Originally posted by apacheman
I think the evidence is sufficient to support a thesis of larger

Oh, so you've done a statistical analysis on the data then? Care to share it?

Originally posted by apacheman
, slower

You are basing this conclusion of reports of observed speed by the general public. Observed (or apparent speed) has very little relation to the true linear speed of a meteoroid through the atmosphere. The true linear speed has to be calculated, and this can not be calculated without video of photographic data unless the meteor belongs to a known meteor show, in which case we know the entry speed accurately already.

So your conclusion, once again, is based on false assumptions, and therefore invalid...

Originally posted by apacheman
and more frequent fireballs.

Again, this is based on raw data that does not to take into account all the factors involved, as I pointed out many times in this thread... but carry on ignoring the facts as you please... perhaps if you fling enough s***, some of it might stick!

reply to post by C.H.U.D.


Yadda, yadda, yada...at some point you might quit quibbling and admit that we are, indeed, experiencing quite a few more fireballs than average.

A lot of the observers are quite experienced in estimating size, speed, orientation, etc...and virtually all report more, bigger, slower, and lower than they've ever seen before.

It would be far more useful if you'd accept the obvious and start applying your intelligence to the consequences. Since you are so well read on the subject, you'd probably be able to offer some useful insights into potential weather effects.

So, if you can possibly veer from your steady-state viewpoint, what do you think a possible (as opposed to the observed) increase of 25% to 300% would do to the global weather?

Thanks.

As of 28 Mar:

350 fireballs reported by 1225 observers, average = 4.02/day

I have observed many meteors before and this was by far the largest and most spectacular for its color, duration and the fact that it was so large i'm sure some material must have survived impact. Holding my thumb out at arms length, it was bigger than my thumb! It had a dark core, ovoid, and was completely surrounded by a bright blue aura tapering rearward like a giant teardrop. It was lighter in color the further from the core and had a bright white aura in the tail around the edges. I did not see any pieces break off before it hit. It didn't get much smaller before it hit either, unlike most meteors I've seen. My best guess for impact is 15-25km north of Canadian Natural Resources Horizon Project. Best i can do without looking at a better map and triangulating where I was and which direction I was facing. Other workers in the area were saying on the radio "was that a flare?" but no-one really had the view I did. Please let me know anything! predominately blue train with bright white edges

Bolding added for C.H.U.D.'s enlightment.

More, bigger, slower: it's really a genuine increase...sorry to disturb your world, but it really is true.

A meteor that illuminated the sky with a brilliant blue and white light as it exploded over New Zealand last night was likely to have been the size of a desk.

Reports of a bright flashing light in the sky about 11pm were received from Auckland to as far south as Wellington while a sonic boom was heard by many people near Raglan.

Stardome Observatory astronomer and Auckland Astronomical Society president Grant Christie said that was likely caused by a large meteor, or bolide, at least 1m in diameter.

He compared it to another meteor which caused shockwaves and knocked people to the ground when it exploded at a height of 32kms over Wanganui.

GNS Scientists later measured that explosion as having the same force as 350 tonnes of TNT.

"That was more powerful. It knocked people around a bit. But it occurred at daytime. This one would have been more even more dramatic than that because it happened at night."

While the 1999 meteor exploded at a height of 32kms, last night's meteor would have burnt up at a significantly higher altitude, Dr Christie said.

www.sott.net... ew-Zealand

Last night over New Zealand.

"These types of meteors are spotted around the world about once a day and it's just a matter of being in the right place at the right time. It was a lovely clear night last night and it was relatively early, so many people would have seen it."

[url=http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10715902]http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10715902[/ur l]

Once a day globally, eh?

As I've been reporting, there's way more than that just over the US alone.

I saw a fireball for the first time in my life after moving out of the city. For a split second, I thought it was a UFO and then realized it was on fire. This was over a year ago. It was large and dropped and had a distinct "tail." I did not even know what it was until I looked it up online. I've never seen anything like it in my life.

In terms of the math -- you have to look at a lot more than 5 years. I am not a mathematician but you'd have to look at if there are spikes, peaks and valleys, probably over the course of 100 years or more to be statistically significant. I am not sure as I'm not a math head and we probably don't have data going back that far.

Aside from wacko theories, what are scientists saying about an increase in sightings? Maybe because of the Internet, more people are just reporting them and they're not actually increasing.

reply to post by nda11


The figures I've posted for the five years are those easily transcribed and available for verification on the web, but I've looked at records going back about a century and quarter, and they would seem to support my thesis.

There has been a relatively stable number of 1-1.5 a day for the better part of all records available and the average number of reporters has been relatively stable also. The average per siting has gone up in recent years corresponding to the more people watching theory, but the actual numbers do seem to be increasing.

The universe is dynamic and things change.

In spring, fireballs are more abundant. Their nightly rate mysteriously climbs 10% to 30%.

"We've known about this phenomenon for more than 30 years," says Cooke. "It's not only fireballs that are affected. Meteorite falls--space rocks that actually hit the ground--are more common in spring as well1." Researchers who study Earth's meteoroid environment have never come up with a satisfactory explanation for the extra fireballs. In fact, the more they think about it, the stranger it gets.

Consider the following:

There is a point in the heavens called the "apex of Earth's way." It is, simply, the direction our planet is traveling. As Earth circles the sun, the apex circles the heavens, completing one trip through the Zodiac every year.

The apex is significant because it is where sporadic meteors are supposed to come from. If Earth were a car, the apex would be the front windshield. When a car drives down a country road, insects accumulate on the glass up front. Ditto for meteoroids swept up by Earth.

Every autumn, the apex climbs to its highest point in the night sky. At that time, sporadic meteors of ordinary brightness are seen in abundance, sometimes dozens per night.

Read that again: Every autumn.

"Autumn is the season for sporadic meteors," says Cooke. "So why are the sporadic fireballs peaking in spring? That is the mystery."

Meteoroid expert Peter Brown of the University of Western Ontario notes that "some researchers think there might be an intrinsic variation in the meteoroid population along Earth's orbit, with a peak in big fireball-producing debris around spring and early summer. We probably won't know the answer until we learn more about their orbits2."

science.nasa.gov... springfireballs/

10-30% translates into an additional 12-36 fireballs next month over the current monthly average of 117 per month.