What is most probable to cause a SHTF scenario?

Originally posted by [davinci]
Basically a huge chunk of the Sun (charged plasma) is shot out into

Yeah, a long time ago I wrote something somewhere that theorized that stars gave birth to the beginnings of new planets .. and maybe our sun is getting ready to give birth again.

The idea came to me when I read a science paper that said large supernova that occured long ago send out huge amounts of radiation that can affect neighboring solar systems. That science paper said stars absorb that radiation deep inside where it can cause HUGE outbursts/ejections towards the surface, like a huge heated bubble rising in a pot of boiling water. This could cause the sun to eject part of itself.

Okay, now that part isn't the scary part .. The scary part is how long it can take for a star to react to absorption of radiation from a neighboring star having gone supernova. I can't recall how long it actually takes, something like hundreds of thousands of years (maybe 400,000?) .. meaning: our sun could suddenly BURP big time with little notice as a result of an ancient supernova whose original effects have long since came and pasted. BURP!

We could get splattered. Actually though, if humanity must go, I'd rather see a bunch of hungry space lizards show up and make lunch of all these humans (ha, they deserve it). But the idea that a neighboring stars death could have long ago impregnated our sun that results in a baby planet being born around 2012 sounds like a romantic ending for humanity here on Earth. Things are getting a little crowed around here again, a new planet for the survivors might be nice.

reply to post by xxclaro


Economic collapse seems to me the most likely as we are heading down that road as fast as the government can take us...follow that up with a man made high mortality rate pandemic to quell any uprisings that will follow the economic crash..pandemic will be declared some sort of bio/chem terrorist attack, it will serve in that ppl will be afraid to be near another person for fear of catching the disease..also depopulate by 50% the population..the military will grow astronomically from survivors who enlist for food to feed their families..,maybe even survivor slave labor..I mean they have to have someone to rule over and rebuilt the country to their liking ...etc...etc...thats the way I would do it anyway

It won't take much. Not when you think about it.

We're a nation of systems. Consider how fragile our power grid system is. Consider how much chaos would occur if our grid systems fell victim to some event, either natural or manmade.

Transportation grids are heavily determined by our interstate systems. Our interstate systems go though major municipalities. Any chaos that would create anarchy in our cities would bleed over and halt the movement of all goods, including food, medicine, and fuel.

These large cities provide the bulk of warehousing of goods and supplies. Once again, any event that would create chaos or anarchy in our major cities would halt movement of goods and supplies.

Banking and wealth transfers are likewise tied to our major cities, combined with our fragile electrical grid. If the grid goes down, all banking and wealth transfers halt. No money, no food. No money, no fuel. No fuel transport, no fuel. No fuel, no coal transport to power generating stations.

Now, considering what little we've seen in US cities where events of chaos and partial anarchy occurred, imagine an event or events that would cause that to occur in cities across America at more or less the same time.

We saw what happened in New Orleans. Liberty City. Oakland. New York. Detroit.

Each of these events were localized and limited. And masses of assistance were available to alleviate the problems.

Some event spreads where no one is going anywhere, no food is available, and/or banks are closed, then anarchy would soon follow across America.

You'll have what you can keep from being taken by force, or what you can get by force.

This assassination attempt on the Congresswoman? Imagine the same level of success on other national politicians. Imagine the repercussions. Imagine the chaos.

Just one little event, and things go completely out of control as each system is dependent on all systems in place working.

Mass anarchy.

Given the spending of money that isn't there - economic collapse OR another Carrington event.
Second.

Originally posted by AlreadyGone
I think it would be some socio-political scenario...maybe tied to economics.

Maybe economic chaos, the government responds with martial law...suspension of Constitution. The enforcing troops go a little too far, someone gets hurt... public outcry... protests...US calls in "Peace Keepers" with blessing of UN and Congress...

Then with foreign troops patrolling streets...all hell breaks loose and breaks down into Civil War.

Then Russia...China... N Korea make their moves...Maybe Syria/Iran move against Israel...

Yup, wouldn't take long for the whole thing to just fall apart.

I would have to agree with you on that! That's the threat i'm preparing for.

as far as my own crazy theories go, i would have a to suspect a falsified UFO/Alien attack (in 2012 maybe??) as a last ditch effort for the NWO to create utter chaos and try to unite the world under a NWO. (project blue beam style scenario)

or Haarp causing mass "natural" disasters. or also real or faked CME (hehehe)

or maybe all of them at once!

A true, virulent epidemic would cause things to break down in very short order. Movement of goods would come to a halt. No matter where they are, a lot of people would be trying to find someplace safer. Nobody would trust anybody. Lots of crime in the interest of protecting oneself or trying to take what someone else has. Total chaos.

I think thats one of the most frightening scenario's, because like you said people will be afraid of one another and in a SHTF situation we will desperatly need one another's assistance. This sceanrio is the one that I can really see tearing people apart, not becasue they don't want to help but because it's simply not safe to.

If you consider the condition of our economy and government, we're in the middle of a SHTF scenerio right now. We still have some "normalcy" to our everyday lives, but the "normal" is exiting the building real fast. All the elements that are needed for a crash are already in place. And yes, I'm one of those that thinks the crash is planned out by our government well in advance of action. How much proof do we need?? Could any more moronic decisions than have been made led to where we're at now? Sometimes, the facts speeks volumes.
So , you want to know what's the most probable cause to a SHTF scenerio??? How about what you're living right now.... The first act has started, and we are getting close to the next act. Remember, there are no coincidences, and the government isn't here to help you.

Worldwide economic collapse, is what I see as the most likely culprit. Of course, those in power don't want this either, so you can be sure they'll try and do everything they can to prevent it.

That's the upside.

Barring that, a disaster of global proportions most likely. The ideas of a rapid climactic change come to mind (such as the flash frozen mammoths found, etc.). Kind of like the film where the megastorm hit NYC, etc.

Pure speculation - I like it.
1. Maybe Ebola comes out of hiding. It's nasty stuff & could spread world wide with all the plane routes we have. Takes 10 days to incubate & 2 weeks to kill. One infected person could spread it to the world.
2. Here's a different one...public reaction if several million people suddenly go missing. Not dead like the birds, but gone. SHTF panic spreads and explanations are lacking. Read all the threads we have going on unusual die-offs. People will be terrified that they may be the next to disappear into thin air. Best speculation is that the UFOs dunit. Still scary...
3. Any event that takes out the power grid. Only 3 days worth of food in the cities & lots of city slickers who have no survival skills - other that B&E, assalt, murder...

Whatever happens, better to be a hillbilly or a redneck that a city dweller.

I dug this old post of mine out,
no CME's, no alien invasion, no thermo-nuclear anything,
Just some common sense.

Make a list, starting with the most probable occurrence, according to your individual situation.

In my case, I may envision a great battle with the hordes of hoodlums running reckless in the streets, but the more probable occurrence would be something closer to a blizzard or freezing ice cutting off power, and stranding me and my family for days or weeks.

Once you have a list of the 3-5 most probable occurrences, look at each situation, and write down what effect it would have.
In the case I mentioned above, firewood, food, batteries, candles, etc. top the list, however, since I have my own well, with a generator backup, I do need extra gasoline and some parts in case the generator peters out, but loading up on water for this specific occurrence is lower on the list.

Do the same for each situation on your list, and according to the likelihood each will happen. As you work from one situation to the next, you will start to see where certain items continually become necessary.

Start acquiring these items based on the probability that you will need them. Roving bands of armed thugs may be possible, but a home invasion is more likely. Similar steps cover both possibilities.
ATS "Home Invasion and you" thread

Be prepared for the most likely, not the most "glorious" scenarios.

I think it's going to happen when China calls in all debts!
An entire flip in our allies would change.
Muslim nations , Christians, and Jewish nations will have to form an alliance
to fight a very powerful military complex that is maturing in China !!

I tend to rate plausible SHTF scenarios based on their survivability as follows:

LOW SURVIVABILITY
- Yellowstone Mega Eruption
- Ice Age
- Global Food Famine / Shortage
- Asteroid Impact

MEDIUM SURVIVAIBILITY
- New Madrid Fault Quake
- EMP Attack / Geomagnetic Storm / CME
- Pandemic
- Dirty Bomb Attack
- Peak Oil

HIGH SURVIVABILITY
- Economic Collapse
- Political Collapse
- Sea Level Rise
- Information Collapse

Yellowstone Mega Eruption - The Yellowstone caldera is one of the largest and most active supervolcanoes in the world. It has erupted a number of times throughout history, gradually heading east each time until reaching it's current location. During it's last eruption 640,000 years ago, it covered much of the eastern United States in more than 8-feet of volcanic ash and debris after 240 cubic miles of rock and dust were thrown into the atmosphere. If it were to happen today, the ash and debris would reach all the way to the eastern seaboard. All of the crop land East of Wyoming would be lost. The global temperature would plummet for several years as a result of the debris in the atmosphere, leading to a little ice age. Potentially billions would die when crops across the globe failed.

Ice Age - Several times throughout Earth's history, the world has been completely covered with ice. It is reoccurring cycle which will eventually happen again. The global food supply would be reduced to almost nothing. Most species of animal on Earth would go extinct due to the lack of food or the change in temperature. Billions would eventually die when stockpiles of food ran out or when fuel for heat ran out.

Global Food Famine / Shortage - Any break in the global food supply chain is going to cause problems. A severe famine or shortage caused by other means will have dire consequences for millions of people initially. However, as a result, food prices would skyrocket. And that means millions more would not be able to afford the food required to live and would starve to death as a result or die trying to steal it. Food riots would lead to even more deaths.

Asteroid Impact - Depending on the size of the asteroid, an impact could potentially be a global killer. If a big enough rock hits land, you are looking at a massive fireball, earthquakes, and tons of debris in the atmosphere which is going to blot out the sun for years. So even if you survive, you will probably die soon after. If there is a water impact, you are looking at massive tidal waves and tons of steam and debris being launched into the atmosphere. Again, even if you survive the tidal waves, the global temperature will drop and the surviving food supply will die.

New Madrid Fault Quake - This is the largest fault in the eastern half of the United States. It runs through several major cities and could potentially kill millions. The resulting displaced survivors and loss crop production could then lead to severe economic stress and food shortages on the rest of the country.

EMP Attack / Geomagnetic Storm / CME - This event would primarily impact a lot of the computers and machinery we depend on for our current way of life. Millions of people worldwide depend on devices susceptible to an EMP in order to live. Such as those with pacemakers or those using similar appliances to regulate breathing or control seizures. In addition, most medical procedures rely on sophisticated technology in order to diagnose and treat a variety of injuries and illnesses. Without them, the patient mortality rate will go through the roof. Then there is a communication breakdown. Given that many businesses are now solely internet operated, the economy will take a major hit. The stockmarket itself will most likely cease to function. The money in your bank account will disappear until the data can be recovered from backup files in a data storage vault. Then there is the potential for disrupting transportation. There is a potential that thousands if not millions could die as a result. Although it is survivable.

Pandemic - A fast spreading highly infectious airborn virus with a long gestation period that is antibiotic resistant could potentially kill millions. That is, if it is not spotted soon enough and proper precautions aren't taken. Even if a cure is not found, if people are able to isolate themselves from exposure an event of this magnitude could be survivable.

Dirty Bomb Attack - This would entail several low megaton dirty bombs detonated in several major cities. Radioactivity would be at a minimum. Only a portion of those in affected cities would die or be exposed to lethal doses of radiation. But the damage to the countries infrastructure would be severe. At a rough estimate, depending on the amount of cities hit, you are looking at thousands to maybe millions killed. But this is an extremely survivable event for most of the country as fallout would be at a minimum and ground zero for each bomb site would be small.

Peak Oil - The real threat with peak oil is a shutdown of transportation systems. All of the food that gets shipped to your local grocery store. The ambulance that shows up when you have an accident. The fire trucks that save your house from burning to the ground. The police officers that show up to save your life. The delivery man who brings you those packages you ordered online. None of them will be able to function. Most people won't even be able to get to work. The fishing and farming industry will not be able to afford to produce 90% of the global food supply without boats and tractors. Society as we know it would have to adapt to the change in order to survive. Still, potentially thousands to millions could die as a result to the lack of food.

Economic Collapse - This is usually considered a doomsday scenario but it really isn't the end of the world. If the economy crumbles, if the dollar becomes worthless, it isn't the end of the world. You may lose all of your money. But the food supply is still there. Again, society would need to adapt to the change in order to survive. Still, hundreds to thousands could die if they can no longer pay for medication or food.

Political Collapse - This would be something akin to a civil war. Something we have seen countless times in other countries. And only once in ours. All it would take is enough public upheaval to oppose the current government and attempt to impose one of their own. As a result, you would be looking at a civil war ten times bloodier than the first. Now you would have two sides battling it out with tanks, planes and machine guns instead of horses, cannons and blackpowder rifles. Depending on the length of the battle, you are looking at potentially thousands of deaths before one side or the other crumbles.

Sea Level Rise - This would be a slow event, with the millions of people in coastal cities slowly being displaced by rising sea water. Millions of people would eventually become homeless and need to make mass migrations to other parts of the country. Deaths could be mostly avoidable with enough advanced warning. But you never know.

Information Collapse - That would be the complete loss of the internet. Not an easy thing to accomplish, considering most data servers are highly secured and shielded. However, if it were to somehow happen, we would basically be taken back to the early 1980's. A time before cell phones and the internet. The economy would take a hit. A lot of people would be out of the job. But it might not result in much unless you count the thousands of suicides that spring up when teeny boppers can no longer check their facebook accounts and actually have to talk to people.