What is most probable to cause a SHTF scenario?

We spend lots of time talking about what to do during/after a SHTF scenario,and not much time discussing what might actually bring about such an event. The cause will likley have a a big bearing on what you need to do next ot survive.
I've thought about it a fair bit,and there are only a couple scenario's I can think of that would casue a true SHTF situation. By this I mean something that happens quickly enough that you have little time to prepare and causes mass chaos and disorder.
First one would be a true epidemic,one that spreads quickly,easily and has a high mortality rate. In htis case, quarantine would be a possibility and people would likley be trying to get away from highly populated area's. This would cause the disease to spread even more quickly and medical services would probably not be able to keep up. If this is likely or not, I don't know, but it seems to me with the recent scares of various flu's and such, those who research such things beleive it is a possibility.
The second one would be massive and quick climate change or a similar event, brought on by a polar switch or maybe the suns activity. I'm not a scientist/climatoligist/meteoroligist, but from what I've read it seems that such an event is possible, if unlikley. If it where to happen, I believe it could cause a true, almost global SHTF situation.
There are numerous other events that could cause more localised SHTF scenario's, and while they would no doubt be devastating to those involved, the rest of the world would be in better condition and hopefully be able to help out and get things back in order. Thus ,society wouldn't ruly break down and law and order would be maintained,or at least quickly restored.
I no longer think EMP is a huge concern, due to people like Mr.Tranny,who have a great deal of knowledge in this area posting what they know. I don't see a huge,devasting world war breaking out either, for various reasons.
I believe that by far the most likley sceanario is a slower decline of the economy that,while certainly devastating, would allow people some time to prepare and adapt. Anything you can think of that you believe is a realistic and likley cause of a true,near global SHTF situation.

You know, I honestly feel that if we have such a scenario, it will be purposefully generated. What do I mean by that? Well, I think about 2012. I really feel like something might very possibly occur on 12/21/12, but I don't necessarily prescribe to the notion that something cosmic will happen. Still, I certainly believe in the nature of secret and criminal cabals operating under the radar of public scrutiny with specified and malignant agendas that would await an opportunity such as 2012 to hit the "go" button on a SHTF scenario. There could very possibly be hidden technologies that would aid them in this play that they choose to put on upon the theatre of the world. Perhaps a staged UFO scenario, perhaps the return of Christ, perhaps a staged pandemic; something Earth shaking that will cause sociatal calamity that could threaten to change things drastically. This is, of course, posturing and supposition, but I still feel that it is the most likely near-term scenario for the actual manifestation of a SHTF event. Otherwise, we simply have the old fallbacks...meteor, pandemic (real one), nuclear holocaust, rise of the machines, etc.

So, smoke 'em if you got 'em...

I think it would be some socio-political scenario...maybe tied to economics.

Maybe economic chaos, the government responds with martial law...suspension of Constitution. The enforcing troops go a little too far, someone gets hurt... public outcry... protests...US calls in "Peace Keepers" with blessing of UN and Congress...

Then with foreign troops patrolling streets...all hell breaks loose and breaks down into Civil War.

Then Russia...China... N Korea make their moves...Maybe Syria/Iran move against Israel...

Yup, wouldn't take long for the whole thing to just fall apart.

I just watched a show on this and they had like 6 different experts talk about what they figured were the biggest threat to humanity. Personally I think economic collapse of the US is what is the most likely trigger to a SHTF scenario.

All it takes is chaos in the US to destabilize the world, then wars happen. With wars comes famine disease and possible nuclear fallout.

1. Large CME directed toward the Planet that gives an EMP strike.

2. Celestial Object Event

3. Yellowstone Eruption

4. EMP Attack

Political chaos will never cause TSHF scenario. Even a World War would not be large enough to cause society to break down. Now a full Nuclear exchange with Russia possibly China could change into a SHTF event, but it would take a full exchange to do so.

reply to post by xxclaro


I like this. A purely speculative thread, so I'm free to speculate without having to provide all kinds of facts and evidence. Well here goes!

Here is an interesting tidbit from an article that I read about the collapse of the fiat currencies. I think this is the most plausible SHTF scenario.

NIA (National Inflation Association) believes it is unconstitutional for the Federal Reserve to make loans to foreign central banks. Most likely, the Federal Reserve was pressured by Wall Street to re-establish the swap facilities because Bank of America, Citigroup, JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have about $2.5 trillion in exposure to Europe, and Wall Street doesn't want to see their bets go bad.

Not only will Americans now be exposed to the European debt crisis through the Federal Reserve's swap lines, but the U.S. will be giving money away to Europe through the IMF. The IMF is contributing up to 220 billion Euros as a part of the bailout, which equals $283.1 billion at the latest exchange rate. The U.S. represents approximately 20% of IMF funding, which means the bailout is costing U.S. taxpayers $56.7 billion, not including the potential losses from loans made by the Federal Reserve and the inflation it will create.
The moral hazards of the EU bailout are immeasurable. It sets a dangerous precedent that the ECB won't allow any eurozone nations to fail, just like the Federal Reserve won't allow any major financial institutions on Wall Street to fail. Eventually, if you don't allow the free market to punish countries and financial institutions that recklessly speculated and made poor financial decisions, the financial crisis we are preventing will turn into a currency crisis that the western world will never be able to recover from. Although NIA still believes the U.S. dollar will win its race to the bottom with the Euro, we are now at risk of a total collapse of the world's fiat currency system.

Link to the rest of article...

When the fiat currencies become useless, there will be a scramble for commodities such as oil, silver, gold, other natural resources to standardize the replacement currencies.

Analysts said Mr Putin was trying to defuse simmering tensions over who gets to exploit the Arctic's rich mineral wealth in future. Russia, the United States, Canada, Denmark and Norway are all locked in a race to grab a slice of the northern wilderness after US researchers predicted that global warming might leave the area ice-free, and therefore more easily navigable and explored, as early as 2030. Experts say the region potentially contains one fifth of the world's oil and gas reserves and that the swath of Arctic territory claimed by Russia could be home to oil supplies double the size of Saudi Arabia's proven reserves.

Link to the rest of article...

Conflict may arise stemming from the Arctic Circle for the massive amounts of resources which could secure the new currency's value for years to come and ween dependence on the oil reserves in the Middle East. Essentially this battle for resources could lead to a Third World War...

This scenario more than likely will not come to pass exactly the way I have stated, but there's a remote possibility that it could. Alas, that's the beauty of speculation.

reply to post by AlreadyGone


I don't doubt the government or other people with power try to decieve and manipulate the people. There's just one thing that makes me kind of doubt that they would do something like has been mentioned,and that is their lust for power and money. If they destroy society, who will they rule over and where will their money come form? I'm sure they'd do a hell of a lot better than most of us poor saps, but still, they would also loose alot if society were to crumble. If the government ever brought foreign troops into american streets, I'm fairly certain it would cause a sh*#storm of epic proportions. It would be political suicide for anyone in power at the time,and I just don't know if TPTB are ready to give up the power they weild. At best they would be ruling over a devastated society that couldn't give them the luxuries they've come to see as their birthright.
Maybe I'm wrong, but what do you think would motivate the government(shadow or otherwise) to try and bring down society? Maybe they have a larger master plan in place that will not devaste society but reform it into something more manageable and even more profitable for them? I have no doubt there are many who would love to get us all under their thumb, but it would also be a huge risk for them to try it.
Fear is, I believe,their greatest weapon. If they can scare people sufficiently, the can do just about anything they want. All they need to do is promise to provide safety and people will readily hand over their rights in order to feel safe. We've already seen that happen, I believe.
So what could TPTB do,on a large enough scale, to scare most of the people in the world enough to have them do whatever they were told?

I saw the program with the six experts also....very interesting show on History channel...

But I think the most likely scenario will be natural disaster of some kind..Yellow Stone, or New Madrid earthquake, or California earthquake, or non-natural like a major terrorist attack. Anyone of those could shut down the grid of America for some time. And I hope to God none of those happen. I'd like to live my life, thank you very much.

Just try to prepare you and yours as best you can to sit out the immediate aftermath in your home. After that..its everyman for himself.

A shortage of oil, or rather the exorbitant price of oil, will bring about chaos across the planet .. next fall by my estimates. It should be a lot of fun. Imagine everything coming to a halt .. even food. Chaos. Everywhere. It will be a very different world by spring 2012. I'm sure looking forward to being among the few that will still be around to see it. Good luck to the rest of y'all, we're sure going to need it.

reply to post by xxclaro


There are scores of things that could cause it but in my opinion the most likely are:

1. Economic breakdown
2. CME knocking out power grids

After that there are other things that could trigger it, like a really really bad pandemic, but those are the only ones that we can really see the signs of at this point in my opinion. Either way, gotta stay prepared

reply to post by xxclaro


The premise of the thread was an offering of an opinion on what would cause a SHTF scenario...I gave one.

I did not say it was the end all of all affairs. Once the SHTF, the fan is still turning and their will be a tommorrow.

That is where the NWO...TPTB...The Bilderbergs...Illuminati...take over. But until then..utter chaos.

And yes...I believe with the current state of affairs that an economic collapse and world war and collapse of the current powers is MOST LIKELY...more so than the president transforming on tv into a shape-shifting reptillian...or a flotilla of UFOs landing at the local Walmart...or even an asteroid strike.... or the infamous Nibiru or 2012.

reply to post by brokedown


CME is my number one vote. A big enough blast would overload the entire system.

Reactors and other power plants may have emergency shutoffs and controls, but if every transformer blows at the same time it would take months just to get critical systems back online and years to return to normal.

There have been major blackouts over the years yes, but if the power goes out and stays out society would crumble within days.

As I posted in another thread...most people cannot make a fire without matches. Once the fridge warms up and food starts to rot the majority of people would begin to panic. It would be hard enough for most people to go without TV for more than a few hours, but lose the ability to feed themselves?

The fires would be visible from the ISS.

reply to post by xxclaro


You know, one day the earth won't be big enough to hold all the people and all the devastation they bring to it. Now we must ask ourselves what would someone with a lot of power do with that knowledge?

S&F btw

I think the most likely scenario involves human error, a "fat finger" error if you will.

Especially something to do with the nuclear weapons arsenal. There is no room for error, and there have been a few errors that nearly caused TSTHTF in the past.

Also the power grid is not terribly resilient to human error. A nuclear power plant disaster, or just a giant blackout that covers a large part of the country for more than a few days would do the job.

There are also mistakes that can be made in the financial world that could have results worse than a nuclear war.

A big CME that fried the grid, is likely at some point.

Pandemic.

Sudden severe climate change, like a new ice age that starts in a matter of weeks or months.

A supervolcano like yellowstone.

Multiple large volcanic eruptions at once.

An asteroid impact.

A large eq that causes tsunami's over a wide area.

A landslide on La Palma island.

Global internet breakdown (which is very unlikely to happen, but theoretically possible) will be a devastating event for every aspect of modern society. It will actually cause a new "dark age".

National Geographic's depiction mirrors probability (some may say):

Ends of the Earth

This scenario is taking place as we speak in Queensland Australia ,
Massive flooding
www.abc.net.au...
www.abc.net.au...
www.abc.net.au...

All it would take is for everything to go offline.
There would be huge panic and chaos.
Look at how many posts there are if people can't access their ATM accounts here,
and that is a vertiable handful of people, really.
Offline, worldwide.

Alright, gettin some good idea's here. Someone fill me in, whats a CME?

reply to post by xxclaro


Coronal Mass Ejection

Basically a huge chunk of the Sun (charged plasma) is shot out into space.

...not something you want to be in the direct path of, especially with a weakened magnetosphere due to a destabilization of the poles.