Solar Activity Watch 2011

reply to post by crazydaisy


Various speeds keep throwing off my calculations.
Solar winds/ flares 400 kilometers per second - 900 kilometers per second?
Not as fast as the speed of light.
Light travels from the sun to the Earth in 8 minutes 19 seconds.

^
solar winds dont travel at the speed of light.

I'm not sure what your trying to say.

also good updated data here.

www.swpc.noaa.gov...

Originally posted by white_raven
^
solar winds dont travel at the speed of light.

I'm not sure what your trying to say.

I'm just playing around with the Distance = Rate X Time formula.
Metric system slowed me down a little.
At 900 Kilometers per second = Rate
150,000,000 kilometers = Distance
Time to impact with Earth = 46.29 hours
Sound about right to you?

www.swpc.noaa.gov...

It seems the front edge is just starting to be picked up on the ace sattelite.

Originally posted by Eurisko2012

I'm just playing around with the Distance = Rate X Time formula.
Metric system slowed me down a little.
At 900 Kilometers per second = Rate
150,000,000 kilometers = Distance
Time to impact with Earth = 46.29 hours
Sound about right to you?

Ah I see what your saying, yea thats what I was trying to figure out too. but that sounds about right, but its been over 48 hours since the flare first went off.

Originally posted by pazcat
www.swpc.noaa.gov...

It seems the front edge is just starting to be picked up on the ace sattelite.

how can you tell its the front edge?

and what is the phi(gsm) and bt/bz(gsm) measuring?

reply to post by white_raven


Maybe it's not a direct hit.
Also, the speeds vary ---normal solar wind --- solar flare --- then the big CME!
It seems to me that we are just unlucky to get hit like this.
We are 93,000,000 miles away.
That's a hell of a good shot to blast us.
I'm thinking go blast Venus or Mercury.

Glad someone else picked up on ACE. ncis is showing the Magnetosphere starting to retract from the first effects of the CME, the bow-shock has yet to arrive with the denser particles but it won't be too long before this hits. Given the sudden readings on ACE this will be within this hour at the most (between 8pm-9pm GMT.)

This is from NOAA, it has only just been updated too.

February 17, 2011 -- The first interplanetary shock, driven by the CME from Sunday, is expected any time. Soon thereafter, the shock from Monday evening's R3/CME is due. Look for G1-G2 (and maybe periods of G3 if the following shock compresses and enhances the CME magnetic field). Geomagnetic storming should persist 24- 48 hours

www.swpc.noaa.gov...

reply to post by RUDDD


Nice... I hope it will have some noticable effect on our side. Europe that is.


I tend to get sick allot when these things hit.. Sometimes they even wake me up :-/

Originally posted by white_raven

Originally posted by Eurisko2012

I'm just playing around with the Distance = Rate X Time formula.
Metric system slowed me down a little.
At 900 Kilometers per second = Rate
150,000,000 kilometers = Distance
Time to impact with Earth = 46.29 hours
Sound about right to you?

Ah I see what your saying, yea thats what I was trying to figure out too. but that sounds about right, but its been over 48 hours since the flare first went off.

edit on 17-2-2011 by white_raven because: (no reason given)

I just read an update on drudge report link -- Huge Solar Flare jams radio.....---
Apparently, i was right. Not a direct hit.
The CME glanced off the earth's northern pole.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Thank God for that.
Scroll down to last paragraph.
They say how a direct hit could knock out our High Voltage Transformers and take down the entire power
grid.
The event could cost the USA alone up to $2 Trillion in repairs in the first year.
It could take up to 10 years to fully recover.
--- Have a nice day. ---

^ where are you reading that it glanced off the north pole? i'm looking at the article

www.breitbart.com...

but I cant find the part where it says it just glanced off the north pole.

The flare is merely the Gamma/X-Rays. Lesser material that takes 8 minutes to get here on Earth. What were watching for tonight is the denser Ejecta from the CME which we believe has formed into a Bow-Line and so its denser material is more composite at its front. ACE has already passed through this in the last hour, and is currently being spontaneously buffeted by sporadic bursts from the CME. Earth has yet to be hit by this, but given ACE's position we have less than 20 minutes or so before its effect is felt here.

Hm...something just came to mind...the expected Solar Maximum is 2012/2013...and the Sun is already throwing M and X Flares around ...me thinks the Maximum in 1 or 2 Years is gonna suck...

Originally posted by RUDDD
The flare is merely the Gamma/X-Rays. Lesser material that takes 8 minutes to get here on Earth. What were watching for tonight is the denser Ejecta from the CME which we believe has formed into a Bow-Line and so its denser material is more composite at its front. ACE has already passed through this in the last hour, and is currently being spontaneously buffeted by sporadic bursts from the CME. Earth has yet to be hit by this, but given ACE's position we have less than 20 minutes or so before its effect is felt here.

Yea i'm watching data come in from ace, and its sporadic. It had a huge peak in a Phi wave and then just dropped data.

Originally posted by white_raven
^ where are you reading that it glanced off the north pole? i'm looking at the article

www.breitbart.com...

but I cant find the part where it says it just glanced off the north pole.

edit on 17-2-2011 by white_raven because: (no reason given)

I'm sorry. That link data is just too long.
Go to Goggle.
Type in "glanced off the earth" and it will pop up.
Jim Mannion wrote the article.


------------------------------------------------------------
It will curve around and not hit us.

I found a shorter link!
- Glanced off the Northern Pole -

reply to post by white_raven

The phi component is not a wave it is the direction of IMF in the XY plane. What we have seen is a reversal in the direction of the field from 180º to 0º. This probably does not represent the arrival of the CME but the crossing of an IMF boundary, a regular occurrence.

With the arrival of the CME we would expect to see an increase in density and possibly speed. Neither has occurred...yet.

ah thank you phage for the clarification on that. I wasnt sure what it was.

Do you know what the bz/bt scale is?

and thanks for that link to the article, Eurisko2012.

reply to post by white_raven

The Bz and Bt scales show the magnitude and orientation of the magnetic field carried by the solar wind. The one to keep an eye on is the Bz component. This represents the aspect of the field which aligns closely to the Earth's field. If it switches to high negative values (a south turning) and the proton density increases we'll start seeing some geomagnetic activity. The place to look for that is here:
www.swpc.noaa.gov...