Solar Activity Watch 2011

Ummmm, FYI... An X-class flare just occurred a few minutes ago. I don't know what sunspot was the culprit though.


It wasn't a real strong X-class so I'm sure all will be ok.
www.swpc.noaa.gov...

Just a reminder the cloud from the M6.6 flare the other day is due to arrive anytime. There have been many quakes at Mt. St. Helen's today. (See thread for updates). Thought I would mention as some are interested in the correlation between quakes and solar activity.


www.Spaceweather.com

Preliminary coronagraph data from STEREO-B and SOHO agree that the explosion produced a fast but not particularly bright coronal mass ejection (CME). The cloud will likely hit Earth's magnetic field on or about Feb. 15th. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras.

I live on the border between Indiana and Kentucky and keeping an eye out for auroras if they make this far south.
By the way is the magnetosphere suppose to look like that in the last 24 hours during one of these storms?

Wow this is awesome,.
I have been waiting for an X for the last few years,.
And this one was earth directed,.. yikes,.
It is gonna be an interesting next few days
Also,.I'd recommend doing your best and try not to get too much
sun exposure in the next few days,.

Wow...this should be wery interesting!

From Solarcycle24:

"X2.2 Major Solar Flare - The sun showed some love on Valentines Day. Massive Sunspot 1158 has produced a major X2.2 Class Solar Flare at 01:56 UTC Tuesday. This is the largest Solar Flare of Cycle 24 and a CME could be associated with this event."

www.solarcycle24.com...

At least it's winter and not summer!

This is just heresay from Ham Radio operators - announcing all day skips and a blackout earlier.

This is just heresay from Ham Radio operators - announcing all day skips and a blackout earlier.

reply to post by crazydaisy
I can only imagine how the next few days will play out,.
THis last X class should add some fun

Hmmm...Spaceweather still isn't reporting it.

Another instance of ATS beating them? I love this place!

spaceweather.com...

and btw, here is the ATS Breaking News thread on this X-class flare as well:

www.abovetopsecret.com...

yeah ,. here is graph to show some of the latest.
www.swpc.noaa.gov...

As far as size goes, while this is the biggest flare of this solar cycle, it is not in anyway a really big one.

Here is alist from Spaceweather of some big ones, just to help keep things in perspective a little bit:

1 04/11/03 X28+
2 02/04/01 X20.0
2 16/08/89 X20.0
3 28/10/03 X17.2
4 07/09/05 X17
5 06/03/89 X15.0
5 11/07/78 X15.0
6 15/04/01 X14.4
7 24/04/84 X13.0
7 19/10/89 X13.0
8 15/12/82 X12.9
9 06/06/82 X12.0
9 01/06/91 X12.0
9 04/06/91 X12.0
9 06/06/91 X12.0
9 11/06/91 X12.0
9 15/06/91 X12.0
10 17/12/82 X10.1
10 20/05/84 X10.1
11 29/10/03 X10
11 25/01/91 X10.0
11 09/06/91 X10.0
12 09/07/82 X 9.8
12 29/09/89 X 9.8
13 22/03/91 X 9.4
13 06/11/97 X 9.4
14 24/05/90 X 9.3
15 05/12/06 X 9.0
15 06/11/80 X 9.0
15 02/11/92 X 9.0

www.spaceweather.com...

Spaceweather.com shows the x 2.2 solar flare now in the sidebar, but hasn't added any text about it yet.
Sounds like it's official.

reply to post by quakewatcher


Good find! They just added this to it:

FIRST X-FLARE OF THE NEW SOLAR CYCLE: Earth-orbiting satellites detected an X2-class solar flare at 0156 UT on Feb. 15th. This is the most powerful solar flare in nearly five years, and the first X-flare of Solar Cycle 24. The source was behemoth sunspot 1158.


spaceweather.com...

I'm actually really suprised as to how difficult it is to find good data on and descriptions of past Earth-directed flares. Tons of articles all over the place on the big Carrington event of 1859, and a few mentions here and there of others, but amazingly little else.

Also, a lot of links go to that list that I posted earlier of large solar flares. I went ahead and started looking those events up individually, and I am almost shocked at how hard it is for me to find out if these were Earth-directed or not (either not enough coffee this morning or it's not out there). I'm going to keep looking, but if anyone has any more links for this kind of info, please share. You would think that this kind of data would be readily avalaible, either from the MSM, or from the New Age group who believe in doom associated with the next Solar Maximum.

So, please share if you got anything good!

Spaceweather has updated their forecast:

Updated at: 2011 Feb 15 2200 UTC
FLARE 0-24 hr 24-48 hr
CLASS M 60 % 60 %
CLASS X 20 % 20 %

spaceweather.com...

X class was at 05% before the latest X class flare, and now it's up to 20%. Does this mean we should expect an even larger X class event to come from the 1158 sunspot?

reply to post by Darce


I don't think so.

To the best of my understanding, the forecast model predicts the chance of one happening, not the size.

reply to post by lasertaglover


Thank you, I suppose only time will tell. I was thinking the same thing when the m-class flare happened, and then it got bigger.

Maybe 1158 will keep getting bigger and bigger, maybe it will start to decline.

My next question is; how long ago/how many times has x-class even been at 20%?

reply to post by Darce


It might be bigger, or it might be smaller, or the same. But it is a bigger chance of a X-class happening regardless.

Your other question is a great one. If someone is interested, that could be analyzed by going through the dates of other flares that have hit us, and then use the archive feature on Spaceweather to find out what the prediction levels were for the days leading up to the flare itself.

spaceweather.com...