Cracking an eggshell?

reply to post by Cybermerc


Not having much luck finding a site that will maintain the resolution so I zipped them up and put them on 4shared instead.

george michael scallion map

reply to post by barkingdogamato

Thanks for a really great thread. I really learned a lot for the comments, especially your research and the professors.

Thank you for the comment. That is the main reason that I joined ATS a few years ago. After retiring, I wanted to try to continue educating in some way, and I found ATS a nice way to do that.
Let me also say that any time you want a serious, educational experience, look for TheRedneck's threads, and you won't be disappointed. Don't let his ATS name fool you; he's one of the most intelligent, insightful members in the entire realm of ATS, and a very good friend.

Originally posted by TheRedneck
reply to post by burntheships

I can buy the part of the official story that says they could have been spooked by fireworks... just not that that alone could cause them to suffer the deaths they suffered. They flew into something based on what I can find out so far... just what they flew into (and why) is the question.

TheRedneck

Just a thought...

An upper-level atmospheric disturbance can cause a vortex very similar to a tornado, especially if it involved super cooled air mass descending into warmer air. Does a tornado always have to touch the ground, or have clouds? If not then it would be virtually invisible.

Imagine this flock of birds flying into an invisible vortex with winds somewhere between 100 to 200 MPH, these birds would be sucked in and shot into each-other at incredible speeds and that may explain the internal damage and trauma.

Seems more likely than some of the other theories floating about.

reply to post by Fractured.Facade

I doubt there could have been a 'hidden' tornado or even a vortex of any size. I'm not that far away, and here the meteorologists monitor wind shear data... if there is even a sign of a vortex forming in the atmosphere, they know it.

That said, tornadoes are invisible, actually. I drove through a large 'dust devil' out West when I was driving. It completely disappeared when it hit asphalt (which is why I drove through it) and then reappeared when it crossed onto desert again. I know I drove through it because it literally shifted a loaded semi one lane over! What you see is the stuff they are sucking in - clouds, dust, debris - not the vortex itself. And no, they do not always reach the ground.

I'm personally leaning toward the magnetic disturbance theory... it was overcast and very dark that night. The only navigational system the birds had was magnetic, and a magnetic anomaly in the area could have caused them to think down was level and fly straight into the ground.

Now, the huge question... is there any observational evidence that magnetic anomalies may be a prelude to actual tectonic movement or stress?

P.S.: Ignore the good Professor above. I really am a redneck!

TheRedneck

reply to post by TheRedneck


Ah, but that wind you drove into was likely not detected either. Perhaps a brief vortex can form and not be detected?

Planes have crashed before and only months after was it found to be the result of undetected strong winds or wind sheer.

Birds may use magnetic senses but are also gifted with many others, sight, smell etc. and I find it hard to believe that they could become so disoriented from a magnetic anomaly that they would fly into the ground at full speed.

Of all of the incidents of recent bird kills the one in Arkansas is truly bizarre.

The reason I am thinking it may be weather related is because there has been some odd weather this season particularly... I've been caught up in quite a lot of it... I was especially shocked to see the temp drop in Montana from 34 degrees to -13 in only 3 hours... and it stayed well below zero for a long time after.... The winds have been so bad in several areas in the mid-west that I had to stop several times... I was hitting winds from the north gusting 50+ mph, and a quarter mile or so further and just as strong gusts from the southwest this was all going on around the same time the Arkansas bird incident was being reported.... It seemed like it was literally either going to blow me off the road, or rip the vehicle apart.

Something very strange is going on, and honestly I have no idea what it could be.

Quite a few theories have been presented regarding the recent bird kills in AK and LA. I don't know what actually killed the two sets of birds, but I would like to address an issue that I have seen brought up on many other sites, as well as this one.
That is the frequent comment that it is not coincidence that the two bird kill events occurred so close to each other.
I immediately thought of the "birthday problem". Of course, that is the problem I always posed to my students when they made comments such as those that I speak of.
"How many students have to be in a classroom, to have a 50% probability that any two will have the same birthday?"
Of course, most now know that the answer is 23, and once you reach 57 students, you have a 99% that two will have the same birthday. I won't bore you with the formula, but the math is sound.
Anyway. consider this:

The U.S. Geological Service's website listed about 90 mass deaths of birds and other wildlife from June through Dec. 12.

news.yahoo.com...

Thus, it is a statistical near-certainty that at least two of those events will occur VERY close to each other, and in fact, several pairs of events should statistically be expected to occur very close to each other.

So, are the two events connected? I can't say, but statistically, it is certainly possible that it is a coincidence.

reply to post by TheRedneck

...is there any observational evidence that magnetic anomalies may be a prelude to actual tectonic movement or stress?

Yep.

...during the last stages of earthquake formation, fractures emit electromagnetic waves with increasing frequency able to penetrate into the ionosphere and magnetosphere, ...

CHANGES IN GEOLOGICAL FAULTS ASSOCIATED WITH EARTHQUAKES DETECTED BY THE LINEAMENT ANALYSIS OF THE ASTER (TERRA) SATELLITE DATA.

Not to promote my own threads but there's a HUGE amount of relevant data (with links) in these two:

Quakes trigger Quakes

Is Oil Drilling in Alberta Causing Quakes in the Cascades?

reply to post by Fractured.Facade

The reason I am thinking it may be weather related is because there has been some odd weather this season particularly

Considering this was the first White Christmas in memory here in Dixie, i would have a hard time arguing with that statement.

I still just don't see that as a probability for the thousands of blackbird deaths... this was a rare situation and would thus require either a rare event or a rare combination of common events. Atmospheric vortexes are hardly rare, and were they this deadly to blackbirds, the birds would likely have died out long ago. Possibility, yes, not not a probability.

I have been researching the event and keep coming back to one of two conclusions:

1. The birds were disoriented by a magnetic disturbance
   
   It was dark and overcast, meaning the birds had no sun-based or star-based navigational capability and limited sight ability. Could there have been a strong enough magnetic anomaly to cause them to fly into the ground? Soficrow above showed that magnetic anomalies can and do accompany tectonic disturbances. There were injuries to the birds described as 'blunt trauma' which has been attributed to the birds flying (for some as-yet-unexplained reason) into buildings or trees.
   
   I simply cannot fathom thousands of birds all flying into trees. Trees are just too small compared to the flight area they exist in for this to be statistically viable.
   
   Should the birds have flown headfirst into a building, surely there would be reports of damage to those buildings, or at least someone would have been awakened in the middle of the night to the assault on their house. Remember we are talking about thousands of birds all hitting at essentially the same time.
   
   Should they have hit a moving vehicle, I am certain there would have been reports of damage, probably accidents, from the impacts. I have seen thousands of insects create difficulty handling a semi... thousands of birds would definitely do substantial damage.
   
   There is little else around for them to hit in that area, except for the ground, and I can think of nothing except a magnetic anomaly that would cause such mass impacts with it. Still, I think this is a less possible explanation than the next.
   
   
2. The birds were exposed to a gaseous poison
   
   As best as I can tell from the reports, the birds did not behave as though they were flying into the ground, although they were disoriented. Someone earlier in this thread or a similar one mentioned the birds may have died of CO2 poisoning... highly unlikely since it would require a massive amount of CO2 to cause problems and CO2 is heavier than air and would therefore tend to settle along the ground. But CO2 is not the only gas that could be accountable. I initially suspected SO2, since it is much more deadly... but SO2 is even heavier than CO2. I suspected hydrogen sulfide, but it is also heavier than air. Then I thought about methane!
   
   Methane is lighter than air, and while for humans it is considered non-toxic,there are reports that it can be toxic to birds in as small amounts as 2.5%. Methane is not explosive below 5.5% concentration in air, so it is entirely possible that the birds flew through an area of atmosphere that contained between 2.5% and 5.5% methane.
   
   The effects of methane poisoning seem to fit with the reports... disorientation, confusion, nervous system malfunctions, and coma/death.
   
   Authorities have ruled out poisoning, yes, but this was due to the fact that local dogs and cats had eaten some of the affected birds and had not shown any indications of being poisoned themselves. If the birds died of methane poisoning, the methane would not only have been much less dangerous to a larger mammal, but would have vacated the birds for the most part by their respiration as they fell.
   
   Not all the birds were dead; some were still alive, albeit barely, when the discovery was made. That again would indicate a poisoning event, as not every bird would have breathed the exact same amount of polluted air and some would have been slightly more resistant than others based on their health status at the time.
   
   Reports were also adamant that the birds were not flying down, but dropping down onto roofs in the area. this indicates they lost the ability to fly (possibly consciousness?) in mid-air. Also, if they hit an object during flight, they would not have been able to continue flight; they would have dropped beside whatever they hit.
   
   Finally, the injuries reported could have been due to loss of directional control and the subsequent impact when they hit the ground (or obstacles encountered during their fall).

Now for the fun part... methane is released typically during a volcanic event, which can be either a precursor or a result of tectonic shifts. There is a good deal of 'fracking' going on in the area to extract natural gas (which is about 75% methane) and also a continuous swarm of minor earthquakes, assumed to be related to the fracking process. Whether this methane release could be a forerunner of a major shift or is the result of the earthquakes already experienced, I do not know.

I do know that a similar, although smaller event occurred in Louisiana, and this leads me to think there is a definite possibility that this is not just a result of the earthquake swam. Both locations are close to the New Madrid Fault Line... meaning it is possible that this could be another red flag that some sort of tectonic adjustment is imminent.

TheRedneck

I'm seeing this make the rounds this morning and I found this radar image interesting.

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/2665f91f95cc.png[/atsimg]

Source: Mystery deepens: Radar captures mysterious turbulence over Beebe, Ark. as doomed birds take flight

This article speculates that maybe some of the birds were confused and flew straight up, causing the upper radar image.

CONCLUSION: Remember, red-winged blackbirds have poor eyesight. They don't fly at night. If the birds were startled by loud noises, such as celebratory New Years Eve fireworks in Beebe, they would have left their earthly roost to take flight. What if some of the birds became disoriented from stress and darkness and actually flew straight up, high in the sky as our turbulence image suggests? Those birds may have literally "passed out" due to lower oxygen levels and then fell to the ground. Just after this spectrum width image appeared on radar, residents began seeing birds fall from the sky. Hmmm...

I'm just not convinced by that explanation. I guess it would be easy it say, "yep, that's it! Case closed!", but something is telling me there is more to this.

reply to post by OneisOne

I'm not convinced either. From your link:

The first radar image here shows the mysterious circular echo developing at 10:26pm, December 31st right over Beebe. Note the brighter colors in the center of the echo. That's a large concentration of...something...rising into the air. A few scans later, the echo fades, only to appear again just after midnight in the same spot.

Was it birds? No large fires were reported in Beebe from 9pm through 1am that night. So we can rule out the smoke theory. The fireworks theory may have spooked the birds, but fireworks would be too small to show up on radar. Besides, there were not 4 separate fireworks shows in the same location lasting 20 minutes each in Beebe, Arkansas on New Years Eve.

If it appeared once, coinciding with the bird deaths, that might make sense. But it appeared more than once. Also, why would it indicate a central area of high variability if the object is a flock of birds? Wouldn't it be a more homogeneous image if it were birds?

I'd say it is highly probable that whatever caused this radar anomaly is probably linked to the deaths.

Could it be a cloud of methane? Hot gases rising? It just doesn't look to my untrained eye like a typical vortex in a thunderstorm.

We need Oz Weatherman in here...

TheRedneck

You may find this Site interesting,it talks about the Sedona vortexes ,just something more to look into for a probable cause.

reply to post by burntheships


Sorry but that was just complete load of rubbish. Now I realise you are only the messenger so I am not shooting you!

I got as far as 18 minutes into that and had to give up. He starts with quakes in Haiti being caused by HAARP. Maybe, just maybe, one day someone somewhere will quit spouting this and offer some proof. I have not seen one scrap of evidence to suggest that HAARP can cause an earthquake. Yes there are plenty of tin foil hat wearers out there that believe it, but they cannot prove it. I guess this must be a religious thing then?

So FEMA are planning an exercise in May. Excellent. Nice to see that people are prepared for emergencies. Does that mean that every disaster preparedness exercise is because they need to get things in place for a real event? No, it is called planning and training. How would they know this was going to happen in May? (Given that HAARP cannot cause earthquakes until proven otherwise.)

Then he says "there is seismic activity all along the fault" trying to convey some sort of impact, but OMG, fault lines are where seismic activity occurs! Strange that.

Then he says, they are using HAARP to test the fault line. Test it? Er why? Why would you do that?

Then we have the triangulation. He says coincidence or what? Yup coincidence, and NOT a PERFECT triangulation. Yes please do plot it for yourselves as he says. 306 miles on one side and 240 on the other oh by the way OMG, WTF the line crosses right by the 33 mile gas pipe feeding the AECI 1200 Mw combined gas cycle power plant! (Mm! nice generators. We have a new 420 Mw in Ireland.) Perhaps HAARP is trying to draw power by triangulating on the stacks?

Not that this has anything to do with anything!

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/64e90a0c3cf3.png[/atsimg]

Now we move on to the deleted records for the day before Haiti. Um what deleted records? I chose three instruments at random and could find no records deleted. By now this whole thing was wearing a little thin, but then we have 'birds don't like electricity, that's why they fly low in storms'

They don't like getting wet either. The inference here is that the electro-magnetism upsets them. Do you think I should tell all the starlings that sit on the power lines round us that they should be afraid, be very afraid? They are obviously not aware that they don't like electricity.

Enough. I could not listen to any more. Basically what he had to say could have been said in two minutes and did not need a very poor video with no coherent flow to it and no facts - except that some woman was potentially a government shill, as if that gave any credence to anything.

Junk and completely unproven rubbish! Epic fail!

reply to post by TheRedneck

Now for the fun part... methane is released typically during a volcanic event, which can be either a precursor or a result of tectonic shifts. There is a good deal of 'fracking' going on in the area to extract natural gas (which is about 75% methane) and also a continuous swarm of minor earthquakes, assumed to be related to the fracking process. Whether this methane release could be a forerunner of a major shift or is the result of the earthquakes already experienced, I do not know.

I agree with all of the above. I said this was caused by Methane on another thread and methane is released by fracking.

Yes I believe the earthquakes are as a result of the fracking, but the geologists say no. But they would, otherwise the oil and gas extraction companies would be liable for millions in compensation for any and all damage. Think what that could be if there was a big one. No they are never going to admit it, not in a million years!

reply to post by PuterMan

Thank you! It makes me feel a little better knowing we agree on the methane.

Now the big question in my mind is: what about OneisOne's link above? It wouldn't be birds if the cause is methane... so what is it? Could it be a methane cloud rising? Would methane even show up?

TheRedneck

Say it ain't so!!
Heat emitting from Michigan crack

Another ATS member started a thread on the Michigan crack.....it's emitting heat and melting snow now. Thought that it was important to the thread at hand so posted the link. Anyway, if this is some new vent opening up, I may be inclined to take the 3 hour trip to get some exclusive ATS video. This could be big.

reply to post by TheRedneck


I have to say that I have no idea about this but looking at the lower shape that is very reminiscent of a large flock of birds en masse. We see that shape here regularly when there is a flock of starlings even though we are only perhaps talking 500 to 1000 birds at the most.

I don't think the shape above the lower one is birds. I would imagine - but I don't know for certain - that doppler radar could pick up methane as there would be a density gradient at the edge of the cloud. We need a radar expert!

On to your pressures. I woke up this morning with sea bed pressures running through my head, like you do. This is not going to explain 70,000 psi but it does get rid of a good bit. I am not an engineer so please correct me if I am wrong in these calcs.

This is based on 1 cu ft of water weighing around 62 lbs. This should mean that the pressure at the well head (assuming it to be about 1 sq ft in area) is 5000 * 62 = 310,000 lbs, so @144 sq in in a sq ft that gives approximately 2150 psi.

Above the oil layer is 18,000 ft of rock. If we assume the density of the rock is on average 3 x that of water then the weight on a square ft of the oil strata is:

18,000 * 62 * 3 = 3,348,000 lbs. If we add the 310,000 lbs from above we get 3,658,000 lbs of weight bearing down on each square ft. This divided by 144 is 25,403 psi or around 11.3 tons per square inch.

I have looked around but I can't find an official figure for the pressure at the well head but there seems to be estimates from 20,000 psi to 70,000 psi. I could go with somewhere near the lower one based on the calculations above. I am not sure that I understand how it could be very much more than the weight induced pressure. If we assumed the bore to be full of water the 18,000 ft would represent about 7,750 psi so the 25,403 - 7,750 would give around 17,652 psi at the well head (assuming that the oil is the same weight as the water which it is not quite). You could say 18,000 psi as a nice round figure.

reply to post by OneisOne


Is it possible to get other links to the other areas that may show something similar to what your 3D image shows? Is this the only one or was it the same for the other areas where birds fell?

reply to post by LordBaskettIV


Thanks for linking my thread to this one...

It would be awesome if you would make the trip with a thermometer in tow! And if you do, be sure to U2U me with your findings, in case I miss the thread!

reply to post by PuterMan

That's an interesting idea concerning the atmospheric pressure gradient. I have been wondering if the methane (assuming that is what it is) could have burned as it rose, causing a thermal momentum that could have been picked up. It was New Year's Eve, after all, and it would have been easy enough to miss with the fireworks going off around it (and indeed, it could have been the fireworks display that caused ignition if there was such). In any case, I have referred that Doppler image to some people who may be able to make better sense out of it. With luck, they'll weigh in here eventually.

Pressure: you are correct so far as the water pressure, but not on the rock pressure. Water and oil are liquids and therefore transmit pressure; rock is a solid and will resist pressure structurally. Taking assumed pressures from your calcs and the 70,000psi figure, the rock would be resisting 70,000 - 2150 = 67,850psi.

Now you can divide that by the thickness of the rock and get a gradient pressure through the rock, but the rock is absorbing the stress instead of adding to it. How much stress the rock can absorb depends on its composition, and apparently it can withstand the pressures you calculated.

My concern over the seabed has never been that it would collapse or explode as much as it would degrade. That much oil spewing through layers of rock can easily wear weaker strata away, leading to more cracks which would lead to more erosion, which would lead to more leaks, etc. So even though the well is reportedly capped, it is not certain that it is not continuing to leak.

The release of pressure might not cause the rock to buckle above the reservoir, but it will cause a change in the forces that are already at work on the tectonic plates. My concern is whether or not this change in tectonic pressure caused by the release of reservoir pressure will be enough to cause adjustments in the plate arrangement. In that respect, where there are already awesome but balanced forces being held by the structural capability of the crust, a small unbalancing force could be sufficient to 'break the camel's back', if you will, leading to a readjustment along the associated New Madrid Fault Line..

TheRedneck

reply to post by LordBaskettIV

Awesome information! If you find anything, please, please let us all know! A temperature increase could be the result of tectonic gases being released, meaning something in the crust is changing.

TheRedneck