Quake Watch 2011

I posted also on an El Hierro - canary Islands thread but for the record it ought to be here also..

www.emsc-csem.org...

Quite a swarm going on - magma on the move ?

Oh ! the 5.1 in Crete was surely felt also !

reply to post by muzzy


Along those lines I decided to do one of the ones I had intended to do. Takes a LONG time as there are thousands of data items and they all have to be added up into months as energy.

For no particular reason I started with Santa Cruz Islands

The ANSS catalogue - the source of this graph - only goes back to 1963 and even that is not complete so I ascertained from the Centennial Catalogue that there were 2 x 7.5 in 1963 so it seemed likely that some stress would have been relieved.

I charted each month from 1963, mag 5+, onwards as Petajoules of energy. I assumed a figure of 30,000 PJ as the current stress value in 1963 (It was wrong - I changed it later)

When everything had been input I ended up with 224,122 Petajoules of energy over 582 periods of time giving an approximate stress release, and therefore a figure for stress build up of 385 petajoules a month. That is more energy than you can tip you hat at - I can't even start to work out the tons of TNT.

Anyway, the next thing was to 'fit' this so that at no point the potential energy dropped below 0

Maintaining 385 as the month stress increase I ended up with 12,000 Petajoules current stress energy at the point where I started the graph. Now for the graph.



It seems to be a good fit, and you can see from that the next 'big one' for the Santa Cruz Islands is some time away yet. VERY roughly somewhere around 2020 on current values.

It is quite interesting that this area has 'batches' of mag 7+, the biggest being 7.8. It is also interesting to note, although you can't really see it on the graph, how VERY quiet it was at SCI after Banda Aceh. SCI also tends to have quiet spells towards the end of the year.

This is of course not exactly scientific as I have basically just taken a rectangle that is bounded on two sides by plate boundaries. It could be considerably refined.

So all I need to do now is work my way round the Ring of Fire!!

Anyone feel this?

Magnitude
4.8
Date-Time
Tuesday, September 27, 2011 at 12:34:33 UTC
Wednesday, September 28, 2011 at 12:34:33 AM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones
Location
24.657°S, 175.461°W
Depth
39.2 km (24.4 miles)
Region
SOUTH OF TONGA
Distances
391 km (242 miles) S of NUKU`ALOFA, Tonga
554 km (344 miles) SE of Ndoi Island, Fiji
564 km (350 miles) NNE of Raoul Island, Kermadec Islands
1643 km (1020 miles) NE of Auckland, New Zealand
Location Uncertainty
horizontal +/- 23.4 km (14.5 miles); depth +/- 10.2 km (6.3 miles)
Parameters
NST= 88, Nph= 91, Dmin=564.4 km, Rmss=0.84 sec, Gp=115°,
M-type=body wave magnitude (Mb), Version=5
Source
Magnitude: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
Location: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
Event ID
usc0006120

Be Well.

yes, more from CRETE...

MAG 4.4 2011/09/27 13:06:35 CRETE, GREECE
MAG 4.3 2011/09/27 12:25:12 CRETE, GREECE
MAG 5.1 2011/09/27 12:08:22 CRETE, GREECE



see earthquake.usgs.gov...

There have been 6 quakes along the Mississippi in the NMSZ. Well, seven if you count the one to the west. This at a time when the rest of the east is relatively quiet. Cluster.

And there were three small quakes in Arkansas which haven't shown up on the list. They should have shown up by now. Still waiting for at least one that was in the 2M range. Curious.

reply to post by Robin Marks


It's showing up now, Robin.
Can you put up a link to the seismo you are watching?

Magnitude 1.7 - ARKANSAS
2011 September 27 02:09:54 UTC

Details
Summary
Maps
Scientific & Technical

Earthquake Details

This event has been reviewed by a seismologist.

Magnitude 1.7
Date-Time

Tuesday, September 27, 2011 at 02:09:54 UTC
Monday, September 26, 2011 at 09:09:54 PM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones

Location 35.979°N, 89.899°W
Depth 9.8 km (6.1 miles)
Region ARKANSAS
Distances

6 km (4 miles) ENE (74°) from Gosnell, AR
6 km (4 miles) NNE (14°) from Blytheville, AR
9 km (6 miles) SSW (196°) from Holland, MO
96 km (60 miles) N (4°) from Memphis, TN
296 km (184 miles) S (174°) from St. Louis, MO

Location Uncertainty horizontal +/- 0.5 km (0.3 miles); depth +/- 1.1 km (0.7 miles)
Parameters NST= 17, Nph= 26, Dmin=7 km, Rmss=0.06 sec, Gp= 68°,
M-type=duration magnitude (Md), Version=A
Source

Cooperative New Madrid Seismic Network

Event ID nm092711a

reply to post by Cherryontop


That's not the quake I'm looking for. The seismo was WHAR and a 1.7M up in the northeast corner of the state wouldn't show up on WHAR. And the time is wrong.

Here's the page with the quake that still is absent.

folkworm.ceri.memphis.edu...

There were three just after noon yesterday.

The Aleutian Islands continue to rumble:

Magnitude
5.4
Date-Time
Tuesday, September 27, 2011 at 15:06:07 UTC
Tuesday, September 27, 2011 at 06:06:07 AM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones
Location
51.613°N, 179.542°W
Depth
75.4 km (46.9 miles)
Region
ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS., ALASKA
Distances
48 km (29 miles) NW of Amatignak Island, Alaska
68 km (42 miles) ESE of Semisopochnoi Island, Alaska
2093 km (1300 miles) WSW of Anchorage, Alaska
2877 km (1787 miles) W of WHITEHORSE, Yukon Territory, Canada
Location Uncertainty
horizontal +/- 20.1 km (12.5 miles); depth +/- 8.6 km (5.3 miles)
Parameters
NST=369, Nph=376, Dmin=200.4 km, Rmss=0.93 sec, Gp=126°,
M-type=body wave magnitude (Mb), Version=9
Source
Magnitude: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
Location: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
Event ID
usc0006148

Be Well.

reply to post by PuterMan


so the graph says that when the stress builds up to approx 57000pj's there is a good chance of a major quake?, or just a sudden drop off. I see you have number of quakes at the bottom axis rather than magnitude
Bit of a breakthrough if this applies to other areas.

I'm just going over Mag 8's, years 314-2011 and Santa Cruz only popped up once, in 1900/7/29, a Mag 8.1, but too far back for any mag 5 data prior, so you can't see what happened leading up to it.

I've found 146 quakes above Mag 8 off Utsu, Centennial and NOAA and ANSS, thought I was done then found another list off USGS that I had missed which had some more that weren't on the other lists, so I have to go cross reference those now.
edit: done that, got 198 now.

Anyone ever found the co-ordinates (lat, long) of the Cascadia earthquake of 1700?
obviously it would be approximate, all of the articles I have come across only mention somewhere near BC, Canada/Oregon,USA
I need somewhere to put my mag 9 icon on my map

More shaking down below:

Magnitude
5.2
Date-Time
Tuesday, September 27, 2011 at 17:42:33 UTC
Wednesday, September 28, 2011 at 04:42:33 AM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones
Location
22.887°S, 171.933°E
Depth
39.4 km (24.5 miles)
Region
SOUTHEAST OF THE LOYALTY ISLANDS
Distances
55 km (34 miles) SSW of Ile Hunter, Loyalty Isl., New Caledonia
301 km (187 miles) WSW of Ceva-i-Ra, Fiji
567 km (352 miles) E of NOUMEA, New Caledonia
1573 km (977 miles) N of Auckland, New Zealand
Location Uncertainty
horizontal +/- 19.7 km (12.2 miles); depth +/- 9 km (5.6 miles)
Parameters
NST= 89, Nph= 91, Dmin=572.2 km, Rmss=0.98 sec, Gp=104°,
M-type=body wave magnitude (Mb), Version=6
Source
Magnitude: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
Location: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
Event ID
usc0006178

Be Well.

Preliminary report from Virgin Islands:

Magnitude
4.5 (Preliminary magnitude — update expected within 15 minutes)
Date-Time
Tuesday, September 27, 2011 at 19:27:09 UTC
Tuesday, September 27, 2011 at 03:27:09 PM at epicenter
Location
18.844°N, 64.340°W
Depth
40 km (24.9 miles) set by location program
Region
VIRGIN ISLANDS REGION
Distances
13 km (8 miles) N (351°) from Settlement, Anegada, British Virgin Islands
45 km (28 miles) NNE (14°) from Spanish Town, Virgin Gorda, British Virgin Islands
49 km (30 miles) NNE (30°) from East End-Long Look, Tortola, British Virgin Islands
83 km (52 miles) NE (49°) from CHARLOTTE AMALIE, US Virgin Islands
179 km (111 miles) ENE (74°) from Carolina, PR
187 km (116 miles) ENE (75°) from San Juan, PR
Location Uncertainty
Error estimate not available
Parameters
NST= 16, Nph= 16, Dmin=129.2 km, Rmss=0.27 sec, Gp=212°,
M-type=local magnitude (ML), Version=1
Source
West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning Center/NOAA/NWS
Event ID
at00ls74p9

Revised came in slightly higher:

Magnitude
4.6
Date-Time
Tuesday, September 27, 2011 at 19:27:09 UTC
Tuesday, September 27, 2011 at 03:27:09 PM at epicenter
Location
18.765°N, 64.349°W
Depth
41.9 km (26.0 miles)
Region
VIRGIN ISLANDS REGION
Distances
5 km (3 miles) NW (322°) from Settlement, Anegada, British Virgin Islands
36 km (23 miles) NNE (15°) from Spanish Town, Virgin Gorda, British Virgin Islands
41 km (26 miles) NE (34°) from East End-Long Look, Tortola, British Virgin Islands
45 km (28 miles) NE (39°) from ROAD TOWN, British Virgin Islands
176 km (109 miles) ENE (76°) from Carolina, PR
Location Uncertainty
horizontal +/- 15.2 km (9.4 miles); depth +/- 8.8 km (5.5 miles)
Parameters
NST= 73, Nph= 73, Dmin=120.2 km, Rmss=1 sec, Gp= 36°,
M-type=body wave magnitude (Mb), Version=5
Source
Magnitude: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
Location: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
Event ID
usc0006194

Be Well

Hawaii just had a good shake:

Magnitude
3.2
Date-Time
Tuesday, September 27, 2011 at 19:49:26 UTC
Tuesday, September 27, 2011 at 09:49:26 AM at epicenter
Location
19.221°N, 155.428°W
Depth
39.2 km (24.4 miles)
Region
ISLAND OF HAWAII, HAWAII
Distances
6 km (4 miles) ENE (71°) from Pahala, HI
24 km (15 miles) NE (44°) from Naalehu, HI
32 km (20 miles) SW (218°) from Volcano, HI
65 km (40 miles) SW (214°) from Hilo, HI
341 km (212 miles) SE (132°) from Honolulu, HI
Location Uncertainty
horizontal +/- 0.7 km (0.4 miles); depth +/- 1.5 km (0.9 miles)
Parameters
Nph= 58, Dmin=4 km, Rmss=0.11 sec, Gp=148°,
M-type=duration magnitude (Md), Version=1
Source
U.S. Geological Survey, Hawaiian Volcano Observatory
Hawaii National Park, Hawaii
Event ID
hv60270752

Followed closely by this in the same general area:

Magnitude
2.0
Date-Time
Tuesday, September 27, 2011 at 19:58:48 UTC
Tuesday, September 27, 2011 at 09:58:48 AM at epicenter
Location
19.223°N, 155.436°W
Depth
33.3 km (20.7 miles)
Region
ISLAND OF HAWAII, HAWAII
Distances
5 km (3 miles) ENE (65°) from Pahala, HI
24 km (15 miles) NE (42°) from Naalehu, HI
33 km (20 miles) SW (220°) from Volcano, HI
65 km (40 miles) SW (214°) from Hilo, HI
341 km (212 miles) SE (133°) from Honolulu, HI
Location Uncertainty
horizontal +/- 0.7 km (0.4 miles); depth +/- 1.2 km (0.7 miles)
Parameters
Nph= 39, Dmin=4 km, Rmss=0.14 sec, Gp=130°,
M-type=duration magnitude (Md), Version=1
Source
U.S. Geological Survey, Hawaiian Volcano Observatory
Hawaii National Park, Hawaii
Event ID
hv60270762

Could the mountain be preparing to blow?

Be Well.

I'm a complete noob, and know nothing about EQ's which is why I've come here to learn!

Just wondering, I was looking at the emergency and disaster info page, and there seems to a be a lot going on in europe, particularly around greece... is that normal?

Cheers for any info.
Deplume x

emergency disaster info

reply to post by muzzy

so the graph says that when the stress builds up to approx 57000pj's there is a good chance of a major quake?, or just a sudden drop off. I see you have number of quakes at the bottom axis rather than magnitude

Yes basically in the data I was looking at there was no Mag 8 at all. Yup when the stress builds there is a major quake. Each of those drops is a mag 7 to mag 7.8 and often two or three in quick succession.

I can't put magnitudes in as they are lost when I add all the quakes together to get the monthly energy, but I may be able - no I can - convert the month's energy back to a magnitude equivalent. I will have a go at that later.

reply to post by muzzy


The diagram on page 54 of this PDF document might give you a clue as to the location of the Cascadia quake.

www.seismotoolbox.ca...

reply to post by Deplume


Here's the historic quakes for the area. Quakes in the region are normal.

neic.usgs.gov...

Puterman,

Here's the siesmo from WHAR.

folkworm.ceri.memphis.edu...

It is my imagination, or are there three quakes on the graph. If so, why do you think they are not posting them to the USGS map?

Originally posted by PuterMan
Complete mental aberration there. That should of course not be "end of the world inn 2010" - I don't even know where the world inn is - it should have been end of the world in 2012!

I just did it again typing this - typed 2010 instead of 2012. Must be the cold weather getting at my memory banks.

I have started on the comparisons for 2010 to the rest of the years 2000 - 2009. I am thinking of just doing 6+ rather than 5+.

Anyone have any strong feelings on that?

I'm hoping not..I felt that Va. quake all the way in west Virgina..It broke our drinking water well..Yea lets go back in time..I heard possibly the end is in 2011..That maybe the Mayan calender was read wrong..Have to find the link to prove it though.

reply to post by muzzy

I haven't heard that they have been able to determine an epicenter, actually. I certainly haven't seen anything specific about it, anyway. The general opinion is that a significant length ruptured, so I'm not sure if a pinpoint location matters so much -- except as a matter of interest to scientists.

Okay, and to quake nuts like us...

Just from reports I've read the general impression I got was that the rupture started up at the Van Island end and went south from there. Certainly, oral histories of the locals on the island state that people were thrown off their feet and were unable to stand and that the shaking went on so long they were vomiting from it. So they must have been reasonably close.

But then, with a quake that big, I guess one could be quite a few miles away and still experience the same effects, depending on the ground.

Anyway, if you'd like my guess (for the little that it's worth), I'd say around 49 to 50 N and about 128 W. (Up around the boundary between the Explorer Plate and the Juan de Fuca.)

By the way folks, as I've just dropped in on this thread and haven't yet caught up completely, is it common knowledge yet that authorities on El Hierro ordered some evacuations today on the basis of possible landslides? Here's a linky to a report that was released about 5 hours ago or so. (It's in Spanish but it translates pretty well even through google).

Best regards,

Mike