Quake Watch 2011

reply to post by PuterMan


Any guesses on the mag. of this baby? www.biblegateway.com...

It's description begins at verse 17.

reply to post by radpetey


Sounds more volcanic than seismic. Maybe it's the rift and it will open up the holy land. Then I think the quakes would be 8+M.

Well, again I've observed clustering in the eastern quakes. There was a short burst, especially around NMSZ around the 22nd. It's been quiet for the last little bit. Even worldwide quakes seemed to be more active around the 22nd, given the only sizeable one recently was in Tonga.

I found an article on the Virgina quake. According to geologists, it was a complex rupture. Apparently there was two slips within moments. So, was it one quake or two. Or was it just a hestitation from some sort of resistence.

fredericksburg.com...

reply to post by LexiconV


Thanks Lex....I learn something new here every day!

Can anyone tell me what the screenshots I posted represent?

reply to post by StealthyKat


If you're talking about the California quake, it doens't look very big. It may have been listed. Looks to be under 4M. Just a guess though.

Hey guys and gals,that a look at this thread about a noise before an earthquake,complete with siesmograph.
I don't really know how to read one,so I figure somebody here could do it and explain it better.

www.abovetopsecret.com...

Originally posted by PuterMan
reply to post by TrueAmerican

 

12.0? No way Jose

For a mag 12 to be possible it would have to have a fault rupture area of in excess of 1/5 of the total surface area of the earth.

Well, would a serious movement of a large portion of the entire Pacific Plate at once qualify? Cause that is probably nearing that amount....

And I must remind that many scientists are reconsidering fault length vs. magnitude after Japan. There were some hard lessons learned there already about that, and further studies at the Uof Tokyo now are saying it may have been normal faulting and not subduction zone faulting that caused the quake. I mean all that pretty much forces reassessment of the info your are providing in that link.

So more directly then I question the validity of fault length vs. magnitude assumptions. They clearly need refinement. And therefore we may have to disagree that it would take that much area for a 12.0 to be created. It may take a lot less than the numbers you present. Just saying, no argument really. Things to ponder- you know...

Would it be too early to call the 188 day quake theory a fail?
or Elenin causing quakes on this specific day?

Originally posted by Lil Drummerboy
Would it be too early to call the 188 day quake theory a fail?
or Elenin causing quakes on this specific day?

I never considered it a "theory", more an "interesting trend of facts". is it a Fail? No, we had a 7.3 quake in Fiji 188 days, 13 hours and 45 minutes after the 9.1 Japan quake.

clocks have been reset for March 22, 2012. between 05:31 & 14:31 UTC. (22:31 2/22 & 07:31 PDT on 3/23) 7.0+ quake.

reply to post by TrueAmerican


22,387 times stronger than Japan is a mag12. Yes I guess the whole of the Pacific plate might do it. Not that I was quoting the faulting area and not the fault length, and they did note that every earthquake is different.

reply to post by TrueAmerican


If i may be so bold,you Folks are only talking about the Fault Lenght...did you take into account the Depth of a Fault (or the Thickness of the plate(s) in that particular Spot)?

Take for example a 10x10 cm Plate of Wood,and you want to break it right in the Middle. The Thickness of this Plate decides how much Time and how much Strenght you need to break it,and the more Strenght you need,the more Energy it generates once it has been broken...

What i mean is,just because we have never seen a Mag 10+ doesn´t mean it can´t happen...PuterMan knows his Statistics...you know that Stronger Quakes,like Mag 9´s,only happen every few Years. Why? Because the Energy needed to generate such Magnitudes takes awhile to accumulate...

Just for hypothetical´s Sake. If a Fault unleashes one Mag 9 every 100 Years...what would happen if it skips one? What could it unleash after 200 Years with no Mag 9 to release the pent-up energy?

There are Studies which show that the Plates are getting thicker over Time,be it from Magma,Particles from Outer Space (Space Dust),Human Citys (and thats not a Joke) or something else...wouldn´t it be a Logical Conclusion that Earthquakes could get bigger over Time,because Faults need more Energy before they even can Rupture?


Uhm...long Story short,don´t just take the Lenght of a Fault into Account,but also the Depth (or Thickness), because this may be also important in how much Force and how much Time is needed before it can rupture.and how much Energy is released in the End...

I hope i make Sense

reply to post by Shenon


Interesting theory indeed, I wonder how much thicker.

Actually I have little doubt that a mag 10 has occurred in the history of the earth and probably a mag 10.5 but after that you are really pushing the boundaries.

Yes depth, length and breadth all make a difference I think.

Just an aside, you know the Japanese seismologists have a lot of explaining to do as to why they did not even know this quake in the position it happened was possible. You can reasonably expect all sorts of - oh we did not know this and this is going to change things - scenarios as a huge amount of face save goes on. Human nature.

Originally posted by Shenon
reply to post by TrueAmerican

 

If i may be so bold,you Folks are only talking about the Fault Lenght...did you take into account the Depth of a Fault (or the Thickness of the plate(s) in that particular Spot)?

Take for example a 10x10 cm Plate of Wood,and you want to break it right in the Middle. The Thickness of this Plate decides how much Time and how much Strenght you need to break it,and the more Strenght you need,the more Energy it generates once it has been broken...

What i mean is,just because we have never seen a Mag 10+ doesn´t mean it can´t happen...PuterMan knows his Statistics...you know that Stronger Quakes,like Mag 9´s,only happen every few Years. Why? Because the Energy needed to generate such Magnitudes takes awhile to accumulate...

Just for hypothetical´s Sake. If a Fault unleashes one Mag 9 every 100 Years...what would happen if it skips one? What could it unleash after 200 Years with no Mag 9 to release the pent-up energy?

There are Studies which show that the Plates are getting thicker over Time,be it from Magma,Particles from Outer Space (Space Dust),Human Citys (and thats not a Joke) or something else...wouldn´t it be a Logical Conclusion that Earthquakes could get bigger over Time,because Faults need more Energy before they even can Rupture?


Uhm...long Story short,don´t just take the Lenght of a Fault into Account,but also the Depth (or Thickness), because this may be also important in how much Force and how much Time is needed before it can rupture.and how much Energy is released in the End...

I hope i make Sense

Brilliant

reply to post by Shenon


And using the same anology,
think of the crustal bones,, opps
would be stronger,
usually after a break .

thus more energy needed, etc,,,,

My previous USGS # of quakes in past 7 days broken with new record for this year = 154. IMHO

USGS 7-Day List

Interesting that on the Solar side the general energy emissions are constantly going up in past few days with none less than 16x M-Class and 2x X-Class flares in past four days. Most of these from SunSpot 1302 which is still coming towards lining up with Earth around 29/30 September; auspciously very bad days.

SolarSoft

It seems the postulation that more solar emisions results in less earthquakes are still holding up.

5.3 09/26/2011 01:02:57 63.454 -126.330 2.9 NORTHWEST TERRITORIES, CANADA
USGS

...is this normal?

reply to post by Givenmay


Reasonably so.

Year,Month,Day,Time(hhmmss.mm)UTC,Latitude,Longitude,Magnitude,Depth,Catalog
1987,09,27,174642.60, 64.523,-129.824,4.3, 18,PDE
1990,11,26,050926.80, 64.512,-130.325,4.7, 18,PDE
1990,11,30,211234.40, 64.507,-130.384,4.3, 18,PDE
1996,04,30,164410.26, 64.225,-129.511, , 10,PDE
1998,02,20,100834.30, 64.494,-128.386,3.6, 10,PDE
2001,02,05,034906.98, 64.433,-131.149,5.4, 10,PDE
2001,02,05,184812 , 64.300,-130.990,3.4, 10,PDE
2001,03,09,071021 , 64.220,-130.920,5.1, 1,PDE
2001,03,09,082817 , 64.309,-130.970,4.0, 1,PDE
2001,03,09,190219 , 64.269,-130.950,4.6, 1,PDE
2001,03,29,182036 , 64.309,-130.929,4.8, 5,PDE
2001,03,29,213944.35, 64.375,-131.270,3.9, 10,PDE
2001,04,02,185459 , 64.280,-131.000,5.1, 10,PDE
2001,04,12,1846 , 64.220,-130.770,4.1, 1,PDE
2001,04,14,153416 , 65.500,-128.250,4.1, 10,PDE
2001,08,10,154159 , 64.280,-130.970,4.8, 10,PDE
2002,02,14,043354.55, 64.358,-130.809,4.6, 10,PDE
2002,10,26,121427 , 64.790,-129.270,3.9, 5,PDE
2006,03,05,104215.53, 64.911,-129.179,5.6, 5,PDE
2006,03,05,203151 , 64.902,-129.196,3.8, 3,PDE
2006,03,06,025253.23, 64.935,-129.115,3.6, 5,PDE
2006,06,08,045727.60, 64.975,-130.856,3.9, 1,PDE
2007,07,12,203521.97, 65.250,-130.705,4.5, 1,PDE

Source

reply to post by jazkaat


I thought the ide3a was that it would be on the west coast of America to 'lose the box'

188.PDF

So are the rules changing that we allow Fiji. What about one in between the 188 days? How far back to we go before we say 'fail'?

As far as I am concerned it is a fail anyway because it is based on alignments of Elenin so that makes it out of order before you even start,

reply to post by radpetey


Yup I will go with Robin on that - I was going to say around Mag 9

Bit large for a volcanic quake however,.