Quake Watch 2011

reply to post by thinkingthing

Is there nothing unusual about this year as far as you're concerned? In previous posts, you exclude numbers as they relate to Japan, because Japan was an anomaly, right?

Correct, in that this was previously a not particularly seismic area.

But do you consider Japan as a reason to consider this entire year as anomalous?

No, just Japan.

Were we really due for a mega-quake so soon after the one in Chile?

In theory it was possible as it is part of the series of mega-quakes at the peak of the 30 to 50 years cycle of these. The question was had the peak passed. It had not. I do believe it has now however.

Has this year been anomalous in regard to anything (mass animal die-offs, earthquakes, volcanoes, sink-holes, fissures, tornadoes, floods, droughts, space weather, etc.) you pay attention to in the sciences? There is much going on....it seems...

• Mass animal die-offs - have always been a feature of this planet at least as far as whales and dolphins are concerned. Birds also but we did not hear so much about these, but they happened.
  
• Earthquakes - Nothing anomalous here.
  
• Volcanoes - all about as normal
  
• Sink holes and fissures - Nothing unusual
  
• Tornadoes - less frequent than other years I believe
  
• Floods - given the conditions these were expected, except by the media. Same applies to droughts
  
• Space weather - is there some thing different about this? I don't believe so.
  

Yes there is much going on, but there is always much going on. There are peaks and troughs of just about everything and one of the peaks is the huge number of uninformed who have been pandered to by unscrupulous bloggers using sensationalism to drive clicks to their sites.

I have been around the ball of mud, and interested in what goes on for many decades now and really I don't see anything out of the ordinary, or rather that is outside potential ups and downs that normally occur.

Unfortunately in many respects the world is better informed but less able to deal with it.

I am not here to argue causes. But something seems to have changed drastically since the beginning of 2011. Everything (it seems) has been kicked up by a notch or two. The most reputable posters on ATS have avoided noting any such change in the climate or atmosphere.

What do you think, PuterMan? Is this a big year for science? Or just a big year for deluded conspiracy theorists?

Drastically? No not really. Deluded conspiracy theorists? No not really, not deluded. Misinformed and intentionally misled I would say.

There will always be large earthquakes and always have been. There will always be 20 to 30 volcanoes going off, and always have been. Some years there are droughts and some there are floods. This has always been so. It has been cold in the past and hot in the past, and it will over time be both again. Some years there are solar flares in profusion and others there are not but like the flares it is all part of the cycle of this planet. Dare I say it but even extraordinary occurrences, and yes there are some like Fukushima, Chernobyl and the various American radiation emissions, will pass and will be absorbed and over time forgotten.

Nature will go on and nothing drastic will happen that has not happened before.

You cannot say that however about the manner in which the people are treated by their Governments. That HAS changed and is drastic and getting worse. THAT is far more of a concern than anything that Gaia can or will come up with. Nature may kill tens of thousands. Governments and the greed and stupidity of those in power will kill millions. Worry about that and not about nature. On the whole nature is beautiful.

Latest quakes:

Thursday August 11 2011, 02:09:30 UTC 6 minutes ago San Francisco Bay area, California 1.8 3.6 Detail
Thursday August 11 2011, 01:36:45 UTC 38 minutes ago Ascension Island region 4.8 10.0 Detail
Thursday August 11 2011, 01:34:15 UTC 41 minutes ago Central California 1.4 7.9 Detail
Thursday August 11 2011, 01:26:41 UTC 48 minutes ago Southern California 1.5 9.4 Detail
Thursday August 11 2011, 01:26:17 UTC 49 minutes ago near the east coast of Honshu, Japan 4.7 19.3 Detail
Thursday August 11 2011, 01:23:02 UTC 52 minutes ago Colorado 3.1 5.0 Detail

quakes.globalincidentmap.com...

reply to post by PuterMan


The more practical side of me is comforted by this. Greatly so.

I have seen many reputable sources say that this year is indeed anomalous. Many records of many various varieties are being broken all at once.

But I found this information, it did not find me. I had to look for it. And I did so based on an inexplicable hunch. Something stranger than science. Something I hope is wrong. I think.

The political concerns of mankind are probably more pressing (maybe) but those too seem to be nothing new in the grand scheme of things. Perhaps nothing is new. Just our eyes.

But when I hope that my intuition is wrong. And that (natural) catastrophe is not around the corner, I will remind myself that you, being obviously wise and informed, believe that nothing is out of the ordinary.

But, and I hope you are not offended at this, I will still continue with my emergency preparedness. Nothing drastic. Just, you know, the basics...

The largest part of the increase in global events is coverage. We're increasingly interconnected, and communication is immediate. Everyone has a camera on their phone so there's so many more images and video. I agree with Puterman that we are experiencing nothing abnormal and things are pretty much as they have been during our brief history. Humans have benefitted from a long tranquil period. But that's the exception, and not the rule. The geologic record is full of periods that change suddenly. With frequently wild swings in extremes.

On average, we're experincing blessed conditions on our planet right now. Periodic eruptions, earthquakes and floods. But nothing truly catastrophic. Nothing approaching an extinction event. Well, Toba put some extreme pressure on our species. But that was mild compared to the other major extinction events.

Clusters. Long periods of relative calm and stability, followed by severe chain reaction events causing massive changes. Then a period of adjustment which then stabilizes and things go unchanged for long periods until the next major event.

Once things start to become unbalanced, the long tranquil period comes to a end like an avalanche. At first the changes are small and infrequent. A few cracks appear on the overhanging snowdrift. Then a few smaller snow slides accumulate to increase the mass of the overhanging snow. All it takes to send the snow sliding down the hill could be a tiny echo, or a shift in temperatures. Once this changes becomes a cascade, the whole system collaspes and you have a crash. Kinda like the market.

200 mya, continents have been alleged to have torn in half. I can't image this change being a slow steady process. There would have been massive quakes running up and down the rift as magma pushed through the fracture.

Things in balance tend to want to stay that way. Once the change starts, things unravel quickly.

I have long believed that the polar ice would melt faster than we expect. I thought they underestimate the way ice behaves when it's melting. It happens at an increasing rate once it starts. I've watched snow melt every year of my life because I think it's one of the most fascinating thing I've ever witnessed.

Things are changing. And although at the moment things are relatively normal, this trend cannot continue.

It's a process. Once Greenland thaws out, we may have volcanoes coming back to life. Right now there held under the wieght of massive glaciers. Glaciers that act as a coolant.

Water has an affect on earthquakes. More melt, warmer water, more earthquakes.

Eventually, we'll have a big volcanic eruption and we'll not be worried about warming anymore. We'll be worried about the ice age.

And it's sooner than you think...

www.vancouversun.com...

reply to post by Robin Marks

Once Greenland thaws out

It has done so before, and probably will do so again but not for another 100 or more years. I am very sure I will not see an ice free Arctic in my lifetime, nor an ice free Greenland (note the name)

ETA: By the way Robin, remember that actually a frozen Arctic is NOT the normal state. Looking at Earth's history the current period is anomalous because of the cold and IF, and it is a very BIG IF, things warm up then that is returning to normal not moving into abnormal.

rant
The pontifications of the current dominant life-form, the skinny little humans, are really completely irrelevant. Ice core samples tell us what? Nothing. Ice is not the normal state - that is unless the Earth is cooling and the Sun is dying - then it would become the normal state and there would be variations. None of the warnings of scientists on the gravy train of climate change, or plate tectonics, and other geological things will come to pass. Would you lose your job by going against the mainstream and telling the truth? I would, but most won't. You cannot believe one single word mainstream science says - and that report on the ice was a perfect example.
/end rant


reply to post by thinkingthing


First a quick aside

many reputable sources say

Main problem is what IS a reputable source these days? So many once supposedly reputable sources now pander to the mainstream collective or lose their funding. That does not make them either reliable or reputable.

The political concerns of mankind are probably more pressing (maybe) but those too seem to be nothing new in the grand scheme of things.

I would have to beg to differ on this point. There is am insidious erosion of all peoples rights that is growing faster and faster and the like of which I have not experienced. This is not a cycle, this IS a disaster in the making.

But when I hope that my intuition is wrong. And that (natural) catastrophe is not around the corner, I will remind myself that you, being obviously wise and informed, believe that nothing is out of the ordinary.

Old and crotchety might be a better epithet, but the point is that if disaster is round the corner, and there will be disasters, they ARE natural and a part of the cycle of the planet. As Robin says, we are but a blink in the history of Earth, yet we are SO presumptuous as to actually believe that we matter.

But, and I hope you are not offended at this, I will still continue with my emergency preparedness. Nothing drastic. Just, you know, the basics...

Preparation for disaster is a good thing, depending on what type of disaster you are anticipating. I don't see how I could possibly be offended that you want to ensure the survival of yourself and your family (assuming that you have one).

Many humans have some odd inbuilt desire for self immolation. Look at the number of people who say they would like to jump into lava pools! Strange creatures. Some are never happy unless a disaster is pending.

I find the mechanics of all these interacting systems fascinating and attempt to understand them, whilst realising that actually no one really does, despite what they may say. Here is an example. A poster on ATS a few days ago said "of course the world is heating up. We have used up millions of years of production of oil in 100 years"

Education is sadly lacking, and by that I don't mean that people don't know about things, I mean that people are not taught to think about things. So many these days make guess, and not educated guesses. I would hazard a guess that the poster has no clue how oil is formed or where it comes from, just like Al Gore, but the methodical research ethic has not been, or is not being, instilled these days.

Read it on the Internet, copy and paste it, and don't bother to think about it. The trouble is I am not talking about the likes of us here, I am talking about student who are supposedly being educated.

Now, where's that reset button.....................

Some more in the UK.

DATE
07/08/2011

ORIGIN TIME
17:11:57.9 UTC

LOCATION
53.154 -4.770

DEPTH
11.9 km

MAGNITUDE
0.8 ML

LOCALITY
CAERNARFON BAY

DATE: 11/08/2011

ORIGIN TIME: 03:26:16:8

LAT: 53. 199

LON: -2. 752

DEPTH: 7.5

MAG: 1.1

REGION: CHESTER,CHESHIRE

10KM EAST OF CHESHIR

BGS Link

reply to post by boo1981


Hee Hee....swarm in the making eh? Curious though that both these are on the North Wales coast'ish. Anglesey trying to break away from the rest of Wales? North Wales trying to break away from it's rioting alter capital Liverpool?

Rainbows
Jane

Tracey Barnett is a Herald columnist

What the frack is Govt thinking?
By Tracey Barnett
5:30 AM Friday Aug 5, 2011

www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10742995

Beware. The minute this column runs there will probably be a response ghostwritten by a public relations firm, possibly from overseas.

(...)

Bernie Napp: Fraction too much fiction about fracking
By Bernie Napp
5:30 AM Monday Aug 8, 2011

www.nzherald.co.nz/opinion/news/article.cfm?c_id=466&objectid=10743590

Armchair experts should base arguments on real evidence, writes Bernie Napp, a senior policy analyst at Straterra.

(...)

Columnist Tracey Barnett alleges that fracking fluids are "potentially carcinogenic" with no evidence presented, and that these fluids are "laced with chemicals". Well, so are coffee, tea, beer and wine, for goodness sake.

Just to make it absolutely clear, the toxic BTEX chemicals, which include benzene and toluene, are not used in fracking in New Zealand.

The next concern is that fracking causes earthquakes. This comes from a report prepared for the European Parliament of June 2011. The reference for the Blackpool earthquake is a newspaper article, and that for earthquakes in the Fort Worth area are unpublished, making these difficult to assess at this distance.

The reference for the Arkansas earthquakes is the local geological survey which has been recording earthquakes in that area for more than 100 years, including swarms of earthquakes that occurred before fracking in the area started. The present swarm may or may not be connected with fracking. Granted, more work on this may be needed.

Your columnist says of Arkansas that "drillers had put so much residual water, sand and chemicals back down old wells it would have created the equivalent of a 12ha underground lake". That implies a huge hole filled with fluid has been created underground.

Think, rather, of rock underground being like a sponge. Filled with fluid or not, rock is rock.

The $60 million project in Switzerland referred to by your columnist had to do with geothermal energy, not fracking.

Then there is a Russian paper, which says with no evidence that in 1963 the filling of a hydro dam in India caused a magnitude 7 earthquake nearby. The paper does say hydros and oil and gas wells can change the state of stress of rocks underground and that small earthquakes can result in response, and that may be relevant for Arkansas.

But any seismic activity as a result of fracking or hydros would be a different phenomenon than earthquakes caused by the massive forces of nature such as have occurred recently in Christchurch. To conflate the two would be highly misleading.

Now to the specular issue of residents in the United States setting fire to their tapwater.

Official investigations in Colorado and Pennsylvania have shown that affected water bores had been drilled through shallow coal seams and that the lining of the bores have corroded. As a result thermogenic methane migrated from the coal into the drinking water.

This has nothing to do with fracking.

(...)

reply to post by jjjtir


Buckets of whitewash sell here for arounf €40. Sounds like they could do with a few.

It has been proven that dam construction and subsequent water pressure causes earthquakes. It has been proven that drilling and high pressure injection cause earthquakes. To say that geothermal energy extraction has no connection with fracking basically just shows what a complete ignoramus the writer is. Forcing frack fluid down a well is not different to forcing water down a well.

What it he said at the beginning?

Armchair experts should base arguments on real evidence

He should heed his own words. The Jerk. It will probably get deleted but I have commented such in the article.

Well Mr Napp you should read your own advice.

Armchair experts should base arguments on real evidence

There is plenty of evidence but armchair experts like you choose to ignore it. Why not stick to analysing policy and butt out of things you do not understand

reply to post by jjjtir


I think you are trying to show the Blackpool fracking might have something to do with it?
If so, no, it was stopped as soon as Blackpool had 2 EQ's. However there is a lot of gas drilling and wind farms being built out in Liverpool Bay....but this has been going on for donkeys.

Rainbows
jane

Hello all my EQ researchers ...

Who feels a big one coming????

I actually do.... and I can't really tell you why other than yesterday it was a little more quiet than usual and today with the Ascension Island Quake I see more Magma from the Magma Plume in that area being pushed around. I can't describe the feeling but it exists at least in my head and heart.

I saw a poster ask and wonder about Earth changes and being prepared. While I think we have always had up and down weather and events take place I do think this is another "time" when we may see larger scale events that have always happened in the past. We are going into a stellar cloud in the Solar System and the Energy that is all around us is quite chaotic. I think it will get worse. Our oceans are warming at an alarming rate and the sea Volcanoes are going off in concert.

I think there is a cause for a readiness. What will you do if there is an EQ in your town? What will you do if a Volcanic eruption takes place near you...and so on. Other than that there is really nothing one can do except enjoy the ride and smile. The Earth has cycles and we are witnessing the changes first hand with real time news.

Once the internet goes and we get thrown back into the dark ages we will not be concerned anymore as we are today. Its true!

reply to post by MamaJ


I would have to agree with you on that feeling.
I feel it is a little too quiet as of late, calm before the storm?? Who knows. I do feel that September could produce a big one. But thats just my gut feeling and not based on any kind of data/prediction/dream!

I don't know why I had this link on my favorites. Since it's about earthquakes I'll post it here. I must have had a point I was going to make- but - I've forgotten my reasons, so here it is.

www.nature.com...

I actually like this getting old stuff. I'm forgetting things. It's great. I'm not so stressed anymore. Now, if there's something I know I'm forgetting, I think a bit, and then shrug my shoulders and add it to the rest of the stuff I keep forgetting. What the hell was I out here to say in the first place?

Big ones. If there's a big one coming, it's in Chile/Argentia. And I'm not even that confident in that. I really want to talk about the stock market. It's so funny and throughly entertaining. I'd get a T.V. if the networks could produce the same kind of melodrama with all that comedy spliced throughout.

But you can study earthquakes by studying the markets. They act in the same way. So do stories in the media. They follow similiar patterns. And that's what we are looking for in order to predict and understand future events.

The key is clusters. Events don't just appear out of nowhere. Things don't just- happen. It's a process. The event, let's say the Japanese megathrust, was not an isolated incident. There was movement in the days and weeks and months and years previous to the disaster. It's just that it was slow and not news worthy. Not out of the usual. But when you have a large event, everything is focused on that brief time when things reach a critical mass and transform. What you see in the market graphs, in stories in media, and when you look at quakes, is that there are long periods of normal ebb and flow, then there is a build up of stress, until the big correction. That correction is the mechanism that keeps us from becoming drastically unbalanced.

I agree with Puterman on most things, like Welsh people are awesome, but I must insist that he underestimates the rate of change that the correction will bring when the earth's system want to balance out the excesses. I beleive it will be horrible and on a massive scale, coming in several major events occuring over a short period. And sooner than we think. I share his skeptism in relying on models to predict in the next hundred years. In all honesty, our world is extremely complicated and all it's life support systems are interconnected in an incredibly intricate web. You pluck the right strand and the web collapses. It's really hard to calculate all the unintended consequences of our civilization based on industry, and industrial agriculture.

The big one. I think we've had the big show and there won't be too much in the way of massive quakes for quite awhile. Take Yellowstone for example. Two big swarms clustered within a short timeframe. Followed by what? Help me out here. Followed by- nothing. It's so quiet, I keep wondering why I keep checking the webicorders so frequently. The caldera has subsided and the beast has gone back to sleep. The swarms were clusters. The two swarms together were a cluster. The period just before and inbetween had many small swarms on a relatively frequent basis. Now nothing. There's no mini-swarms. The most I've seen in the last while has been a few spasms and then it's over before you blink. Yellowstone shook out it's legs and rubbed out the cramps, rolled over, and went back into hibernation.

The earth has just done the same thing. It flexed its muscles and stretched. Now its content to relax for a spell. Yes, there will still be large quakes in the near future. But that's just the normal stuff. Plates (here's where me and Puterman diverge again, I think plate tectonic theory is on the right track- but it doesn't explain everything) will readjust and faults will still release their stresses.

We are finding lots of new volcanoes and finding them under the oceans. It's not that there are more of them. It's that scientists with satelites and hightech ships are finding more of them because they are looking. We see more tornadoes now, in part, because there are more tornado spotters trained each year.

So are there more volcanic eruptions, or are we just better at spotting them?

One last thing. If you think this year is bad with all the conspiracy theories, wait until next year. You won't be able to keep up. Many people will be pointing at Yellowstone and anything else that was in the 2012 script that fits their view. I'm sure the folks over at the YVO have already written out their press releases to counteract the claims that will be flowing out of the blogeshpere.

Here's a story on how the blog stories are like earthquakes...

www.newscientist.com...

reply to post by Robin Marks


I actually agree with everything you said..although I do not think the Earth has gone into hibernation. We are a system that is connected.

While Yellowstone may have rolled over and gone back to sleep....it will only take one EQ to make it arouse straight up and show itself wide eyed and bushy tail.

One big EQ here in the US and it will cause such an effect ..it will trickle to other economies as well.

Chile may indeed be next... New Zealand possibly. We just do not know.

I do know this feeling I have and although its nothing to measure....it is as if I just know that I know we are about to see something on a scale we have never witnessed before.

Call me crazy but the ring of fire is so active right now.....we will see something big this year.

Its like a concert of volcanoes and EQ's are happening all the while the masses are scared and panicked for some reason or another. Everything is in chaos...so it seems.

Planetary changes....

LHC deep in our earth smashing atoms.

RHIC deep inside the Earth smashing protons.

Its all chaotic as Hell....imo.

Am I just feeling what is going on in the world and there is really nothing that will take place.....??

Time will tell.... I do hope I and the others that feel the same way are wrong. I love life and love my children....want to grow old and have them continue to worship me. I do not want anything "bad' to happen....it just seems as though this is the direction it is ALL going.

I agree with Mama J. I will say I know nothing about earthquakes nor I am even close to the scholar that Puterman & Co are. But I do know that when I go to the US earthquake like and I can barely see CA or AK due to so many tremors it alarms me. I was just on another thread and people are not sleeping, sleep patterns are all over the place. I just feel like something is off. Pets are acting out and I am not seeing any wildlife. What is going on? Is it solar flares or is there a earthquake getting ready to occur?

reply to post by AuntB


I am not sure if being female has anything to do with intuitive feelings of empathy or not. I just know what I know. Since the fracking occurred in Arkansas I have been paying more attention. I have heard of EQ's all my life. Only when the Japan quake though did I start to wonder if there was something going on with our Earth and that is when I really felt like something was on the Horizon. Something bigger. Sorry Puterman....do not mean to sound as if I am a scare monger or anything...its quite the opposite for me. I just feel "aware"...not scared at all. The Earth and the Cosmos have always experienced change. I just think we are seeing more and more every day.

We need a plan...just in case kind of plan. I have told my kids where we will meet up if we happen to not be together if anything major were to happen. Other than that there is really nothing one can do.

Today in the EQ world we are seeing more than we did yesterday.

Japan just had a 5.9. They are seeing more today....

Who knows what will go down...If anything. Maybe my intuition has been off and I am somehow really filled with fear and don't know it.

Time will most definitely tell though.

xoxoxoxox

Jenn


ETA: usgs reporting 5.9 and this site is saying 6.1 for Japan....

www.emsc-csem.org...

This event has been reviewed by a seismologist.
Magnitude
5.9
Date-Time
Thursday, August 11, 2011 at 18:22:04 UTC
Friday, August 12, 2011 at 03:22:04 AM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones
Location
36.999°N, 141.080°E
Depth
38 km (23.6 miles)
Region
NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
Distances
18 km (11 miles) ESE of Iwaki, Honshu, Japan
76 km (47 miles) SE of Koriyama, Honshu, Japan
88 km (54 miles) NE of Mito, Honshu, Japan
188 km (116 miles) NE of TOKYO, Japan
Location Uncertainty
horizontal +/- 13.7 km (8.5 miles); depth +/- 7.8 km (4.8 miles)
Parameters
NST=460, Nph=464, Dmin=261.6 km, Rmss=0.84 sec, Gp= 40°,
M-type=teleseismic moment magnitude (Mw), Version=8
Source
Magnitude: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
Location: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
Event ID
usc0005cf5

Still under 6 . . .

Be Well.

reply to post by Robin Marks


All I can say to that Robin is "spot on".

Why does everyone get jumpy when there is calm? It is like I hinted at, people seem to WANT disaster.

I don't think it will be Chile, a couple of mag 7 plus around the Moro gulf area is more likely.

reply to post by Robin Marks

I agree with you and PuterMan on most things too.....especially that the Welsh are awesome! That puts me and Thedoctorswife in your good books right away!

So, we are looking for a 6.0 are we...how many days to go?

Rainbows
Jane

reply to post by MamaJ

Sorry Puterman....do not mean to sound as if I am a scare monger or anything

No need to apologise to me Jenn. I am just a cantankerous old curmudgeon who says what he thinks and does not mind if that is against the accepted thought. You are perfectly entitled to feel how you feel.

After all, I might even be wrong!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Oh and forgot to say JMO have it at mag 6.0 (I have typed that three times and messed it up!!)

www.jma.go.jp...

ETA: USGS have it as a 6.0Mb just as EMSC

mb = 6.0 (355) ML = 5.9

neic.usgs.gov...

I wish they would make their minds up which scale they are going to use!!



Or do they have 2 of them??