Quake Watch 2011

reply to post by PuterMan

Thanks, PuterMan. It just looks like quite a few over 5.0 in a short four hours in Alaska and other areas of the Pacific rim this morning (currently 11:52 here)

reply to post by ChrisCrikey


This is the list for 5.0+ in Alaska and Japan over the past 7 days

Date/Time UTC,Latitude,Longitude,Magnitude,Depth(Km),Location
2011-05-05 18:36:13, 35.607, 142.046, 5.1, 1.9, Off N. Coast Of Honshu. Japan
2011-05-05 17:04:29, 37.160, 140.760, 5.3, 10.0, Eastern Honshu Japan
2011-05-05 17:04:29, 37.120, 140.728, 5.3, 13.6, Eastern Honshu. Japan
2011-05-05 16:57:38, 55.136, -160.616, 5.9, 46.9, Alaska Peninsula
2011-05-05 14:58:21, 38.173, 144.039, 6.1, 24.2, Off N. Coast Of Honshu. Japan
2011-05-05 14:13:01, 55.118, -160.568, 5.8, 39.1, Alaska Peninsula
2011-05-04 08:23:53, 37.051, 143.260, 5.5, 35.5, Off N. Coast Of Honshu. Japan
2011-05-04 08:23:48, 37.120, 143.380, 5.3, 2.0, Off N. Coast Of Honshu Japan
2011-05-04 05:41:40, 40.847, 141.233, 5.0, 35.7, Nr. N. Coast Of Honshu. Japan
2011-05-02 21:25:49, 40.085, 142.597, 5.1, 30.0, Nr. N. Coast Of Honshu. Japan
2011-05-02 21:25:48, 40.190, 142.500, 5.2, 24.0, Nr. N. Coast Of Honshu Japan
2011-04-30 05:06:36, 36.787, 141.092, 5.2, 40.3, Nr. N. Coast Of Honshu. Japan
2011-04-29 22:19:32, 38.914, 141.932, 5.3, 51.3, Nr. N. Coast Of Honshu. Japan
2011-04-28 09:27:48, 37.492, 141.652, 5.8, 48.9, Nr. N. Coast Of Honshu. Japan

As you can see they are mainly all Japan, and as far as Japan goes it has been relatively quiet so not unexpected.

That numbers list was a new venture - I had not done it by month before. Looks like a good way of spotting activity increases. Normally I do a daily cumulative which give a straight line if nothing is happening. I shall have a play with this.

No-one should be at all surprised at Japan still getting 6+ aftershocks, this sequence could go on for years.

In reality they're still due a much larger one as usually they expect an aftershock to occur of around 1mag down from the mainshock.

Originally posted by MoorfNZ
No-one should be at all surprised at Japan still getting 6+ aftershocks, this sequence could go on for years.

In reality they're still due a much larger one as usually they expect an aftershock to occur of around 1mag down from the mainshock.

The question is are "they" right? I think that is a bit of an old wives tale despite the fact that I quote it. I keep on meaning to get back to checking this out, but it did not happen after Chile

Date/Time UTC,Latitude,Longitude,Magnitude,Depth(Km),Location
2010-07-14 08:32:22, -38.002, -73.281, 6.5, 28.4, Bio-Bio. Chile
2010-03-16 02:21:58, -36.124, -73.146, 6.7, 18.0, Offshore Bio-Bio. Chile
2010-03-11 14:55:27, -34.281, -71.837, 6.7, 18.0, O' Higgins. Chile
2010-03-11 14:39:44, -34.259, -71.928, 6.9, 11.0, O' Higgins. Chile
2010-03-05 11:47:10, -36.512, -73.116, 6.6, 35.0, Offshore Bio-Bio. Chile
2010-02-27 06:34:14, -35.908, -72.732, 8.8, 35.0, Offshore Maule. Chile

6.9 was the largest during the whole year except for the 8.8

We shall see but it is my guess that we will see nothing higher than another 7.2 in the Honshu area and I believe we won't even see that. Maybe a few more mag 6.0 to 6.8 and that is it.

Edit: Just dug up the Chile 1960 data

1960-05-21T10:02:57.700Z -37.872 -73.243 8.2 Mw 157 35
1960-05-21T10:54:00.750Z -37.141 -72.404 6.8 Ms 56 35
1960-05-22T10:30:44.300Z -37.963 -73.173 6.8 Mw 126 38
1960-05-22T10:32:49.660Z -37.993 -73.341 6.8 Mw 94 51
1960-05-22T18:56:04.030Z -38.147 -72.984 7.9 Mw 191 35
1960-05-22T19:11:17.750Z -38.235 -73.047 9.5 M 28 35
1960-06-20T02:01:13.910Z -38.254 -73.283 7 Mw 142 25
1960-06-20T12:59:46.040Z -39.218 -73.331 7.1 Mw 155 25
1960-11-01T08:46:01.080Z -38.379 -74.848 6.8 Ms 192 35
1961-10-18T16:51:57.840Z -36.803 -73.433 6.8 Ms 144 25
1962-02-14T06:36:03.270Z -38.091 -73.05 7.5 mB 141 32.9

Source: The USGS Centennial catalogue.

As you can see there was an 8.2 BEFORE the 9.5 but nothing bigger that a 7.1 in the next year until the 7.5 in 1962.
End Edit

And another edit to blow away the theory

Oops, Alaska (1964) ain't playin ball either. (I should say that I am ONLY looking a 8.5+. It possibly could apply to lower magnitude main shocks.)

1964-03-28T03:36:12.660Z 61.017 -147.648 9.2 M 177 6.6
1964-03-28T20:29:06.470Z 59.737 -148.777 6.6 UK 164 11.9
1964-03-30T02:18:06.910Z 56.5 -153.053 6.6 UK 145 18.4
1964-04-16T19:26:54.880Z 56.358 -153 6.6 UK 164 4.2
1965-09-04T14:32:50.610Z 58.178 -152.636 6.8 Ms 209 26

Source: USGS Centenial catalogue

End Edit

I further prognosticate that there is not a cat in hells chance of an 8.0+ in the US anywhere in the next 10 months.

All this is pure supposition and should be treated with contempt and suspicion, or even derision, but bet I am right

Bookmark this post so you can have a good laugh at me in 10 months time - if you survive the "BIG ONE"!

Hi all, I just wanted to say hello. I just signed up for ATS, I like to follow earthquakes and anything along those lines and have decided to see if ATS can offer me more subject matter along the lines I am interested in then the other site I have been trying to discuss these matters on.

So that's it Hello all!!! I am looking forward to having meaningful & insightful conversations about earth related topics with the contributors in this thread and in the fragile earth board.

reply to post by Lurkerlisa


Welcome to ATS and in particular welcome to QuakeWatch2011

You will find people interested in many different areas on this thread, but of course we are all interested in all of the bigger ones.

reply to post by Lurkerlisa


Welcome to ATS and Quake Watch 2011!

reply to post by Lurkerlisa



Bout time you joined the best info site in the world.
welcome aboard.

reply to post by MoorfNZ


Carrying on with Kamchatka 1952

1952-11-04T16:58:27.890Z 52.755 160.057 9 M 126 22.2
1952-11-29T08:22:42.000Z 52.6 160.3 6.9 UK 0 33
1952-11-29T23:46:27.000Z 56.3 -153.8 6.8 UK 0 0
1952-12-22T22:24:41.000Z 53.8 161.7 6.8 UK 0 0
1953-01-05T07:48:26.750Z 53.582 171.202 7.2 Mw 145 17.3
1953-01-05T10:06:36.000Z 49.152 155.525 7.1 Mw 147 50.6
1953-01-12T17:23:44.000Z 50 156.4 6.9 Ms 0 64
1953-02-25T21:16:12.000Z 56 -156.2 6.8 Ms 0 0
1953-09-04T07:23:09.000Z 50.6 156.7 6.7 Ms 0 64
1953-09-23T02:14:38.000Z 50 156.4 6.8 Ms 0 64
1953-10-05T04:31:43.000Z 54.1 161 6.8 Ms 0 0
1953-10-11T13:08:33.000Z 50 156.4 6.8 Ms 0 33
1953-11-10T23:40:26.520Z 51.022 157.572 7 mB 110 54.3

Source: USGS Centennial catalogue.

Please don't take this as a personal vendetta against you MoorfNZ. I said the same as you but something niggled in the back of the mind when I started doing the figures from 1930 onwards.

Looking at Banda Aceh next.

Date Time Lat Lon Depth Mag Magt Nst Gap Clo RMS SRC Event ID
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2004/12/26 00:58:53.45 3.2950 95.9820 30.00 9.00 Mw 601 1.17 NEI 200412264001
2004/12/26 01:21:20.66 6.3400 93.3610 30.00 6.10 Mb 96 0.90 NEI 200412264004
2004/12/26 01:25:48.76 5.4990 94.2130 30.00 6.10 Mb 82 0.90 NEI 200412264006
2004/12/26 02:00:40.03 6.8480 94.6670 30.00 6.00 Mb 264 1.29 NEI 200412264014
2004/12/26 04:21:29.81 6.9100 92.9580 39.20 7.20 Mw 385 1.00 NEI 200412264060
2004/12/26 15:06:33.24 3.6510 94.0860 17.80 6.00 Mw 181 0.97 NEI 200412264180
2004/12/26 19:19:55.57 2.7940 94.1620 30.00 6.10 Mw 135 1.24 NEI 200412264242
2004/12/27 09:39:06.80 5.3480 94.6500 35.00 6.10 Mw 468 0.81 NEI 200412274117
2004/12/31 12:04:57.52 6.2040 92.9130 11.00 6.00 Mw 247 0.72 NEI 200412314045
2005/01/01 06:25:44.82 5.0990 92.3040 11.70 6.70 Mw 364 0.97 NEI 200501014021
2005/01/02 15:35:56.72 6.3600 92.7870 30.00 6.40 Mw 343 1.04 NEI 200501024047
2005/01/09 22:12:56.51 4.9260 95.1080 40.00 6.10 Mw 505 0.91 NEI 200501094110
2005/01/26 22:00:42.57 2.6990 94.6020 22.20 6.20 Mw 230 1.21 NEI 200501264107
2005/02/05 04:03:13.84 2.2550 94.9920 30.00 6.00 Mw 111 1.03 NEI 200502054010
2005/02/09 13:27:25.34 4.7970 95.1170 44.50 6.00 Mw 500 0.83 NEI 200502094048
2005/02/26 12:56:52.62 2.9080 95.5920 36.00 6.80 Mw 444 0.94 NEI 200502264049
2005/03/28 16:09:36.53 2.0850 97.1080 30.00 8.60 Mw 510 0.91 NEI 200503284045
2005/03/28 18:30:44.56 0.9230 97.8670 36.10 6.10 Mb 434 0.93 NEI 200503284094
2005/03/30 16:19:41.10 2.9930 95.4140 22.00 6.30 Mw 402 0.86 NEI 200503304087
2005/04/03 00:59:21.42 0.3680 98.3190 30.00 6.00 Mw 461 0.85 NEI 200504034007

Source ANSS

Scores then

Equador 1906 fails.

1906-01-31T15:36:00.000Z 1 -81.5 8.8 M 0 0
1906-03-03T08:35:00.000Z 2 -90 6.8 Ms 0 0
1907-06-01T08:45:00.000Z 0 -82 7 Ms 0 0
1907-06-05T03:18:00.000Z 0 -86 7 Ms 0 0

USGS Centennial catalogue

Southern Sumatra 85. 2007 Sept

Date Time Lat Lon Depth Mag Magt Nst Gap Clo RMS SRC Event ID
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2007/09/12 11:10:26.83 -4.4380 101.3670 34.00 8.50 Me 411 1.03 NEI 200709124038
2007/09/12 23:49:03.72 -2.6250 100.8410 35.00 7.90 Me 446 1.01 NEI 200709124144
2007/09/13 02:30:03.30 -1.6890 99.6680 28.90 6.50 Mw 409 0.99 NEI 200709134026
2007/09/13 03:35:28.72 -2.1300 99.6270 22.00 7.00 Me 537 1.04 NEI 200709134035
2007/09/13 16:09:16.87 -3.1720 101.5240 53.00 6.00 Me 465 0.91 NEI 200709134100
2007/09/14 06:01:32.27 -4.0750 101.1690 23.00 6.40 Me 384 1.15 NEI 200709144029
2007/09/19 07:27:50.70 -2.7460 100.8920 35.00 6.00 Mw 331 0.95 NEI 200709194023
2007/09/20 08:31:14.49 -1.9990 100.1410 30.00 6.70 Me 503 0.94 NEI 200709204031
2007/09/26 15:43:01.44 -1.7870 99.4880 26.00 6.10 Mw 283 1.01 NEI 200709264049
2007/09/29 05:37:07.26 2.9000 95.5230 35.00 6.00 Mw 214 1.00 NEI 200709294015
2007/10/24 21:02:50.61 -3.8990 101.0200 21.00 6.80 Me 494 1.18 NEI 200710244067
2007/11/25 17:41:38.04 -2.2380 100.4130 35.00 6.00 Mw 331 0.93 NEI 200711254050
2007/12/22 12:26:17.47 2.0870 96.8060 23.00 6.10 Mw 279 1.10 NEI 200712224044
2008/01/04 07:29:18.30 -2.7820 101.0320 35.00 6.00 Mw 298 1.10 NEI 200801044016
2008/01/22 17:14:57.95 1.0110 97.4420 20.00 6.20 Mw 157 1.07 NEI 200801224050
2008/02/20 08:08:30.52 2.7680 95.9640 26.00 7.40 Mw 607 0.97 NEI 200802204042
2008/02/24 14:46:21.47 -2.4050 99.9310 22.00 6.50 Mw 429 0.97 NEI 200802244048
2008/02/25 08:36:33.03 -2.4860 99.9720 25.00 7.20 Mw 505 1.22 NEI 200802254033
2008/02/25 18:06:03.90 -2.3320 99.8910 25.00 6.60 Mw 421 0.98 NEI 200802254070
2008/02/25 21:02:18.42 -2.2450 99.8080 25.00 6.70 Mw 543 0.94 NEI 200802254081
2008/03/03 02:37:27.12 -2.1800 99.8230 25.00 6.20 Mw 367 0.84 NEI 200803034009
2008/03/29 17:30:50.15 2.8550 95.2960 20.00 6.30 Mw 368 1.07 NEI 200803294057
2008/05/19 14:26:45.02 1.6400 99.1470 10.00 6.00 Mw 300 1.01 NEI 200805194048
2008/11/22 16:01:01.70 -4.3480 101.2590 24.00 6.30 Mw 243 1.24 NEI 200811224028

Scores:

1957 Andreanoff, Alaska

1957-03-09T14:22:32.600Z 51.556 -175.392 9.1 M 190 30
1957-03-10T03:06:18.130Z 51.869 -173.84 6.8 Ms 165 30
1957-03-11T03:12:46.820Z 51.064 -176.923 6.8 Ms 178 17.8
1957-03-11T14:55:26.140Z 51.398 -178.424 6.9 Ms 222 35
1957-03-12T11:45:00.250Z 51.678 -176.627 7.1 Mw 170 35
1957-03-13T15:42:13.400Z 51.454 -178.541 6.9 Ms 228 35
1957-03-14T14:47:51.800Z 51.298 -176.644 7.2 Mw 236 35
1957-03-16T02:34:19.080Z 51.519 -178.765 7.1 Mw 227 35
1957-03-19T12:51:01.580Z 51.654 -174.54 6.7 Ms 139 35
1957-06-13T10:40:43.570Z 51.491 -175.138 6.7 Ms 235 20.3
1958-02-22T10:50:29.980Z 50.109 -175.499 6.7 Ms 193 35

USGS Centennial catalogue

1950 Tibet

1950-08-15T14:09:30.000Z 28.5 96.5 8.6 M 0 0

??? Nothing further until 2000 bigger than 6.0

Summarising all that


You could say that the rules possibly applies in Sumatra/Indonesia.

Japan 1923 was too small to be in the list but it has quakes close to the main shock but we are talking 7 and under.

For me, for SUPER quakes, the rules do not apply except in Indonesia.

reply to post by PuterMan

cat in hells chance

LOL That's a new one to me my friend - never heard that one before.

Nice data on the the "aftershocks" - suprising actually. Almost appears that the Foreshocks are larger leading upt to the main quake. (Sorry Robin for using all those terms I know you hate :-) )

Welcome to ATS and the QuakeWatch Thread Lurker! We have lots and lots of Good, Smart Folks Here and we have other Watch Threads here in the Fragil Earth you may also be interested in - Any questions, just jump right on in and ask :-)

reply to post by MoorfNZ


I thought you might.
There were another 3 yesterday (Incl 2 x mag3) and 1 today.
I've put yesterdays on the static map.

Was looking at Chris Crowes Canterbury Quake Live search page quake.crowe.co.nz...

you can move the marker over to Black Hill and select the number of days, km area etc and see much the same thing.





Looks like he works in NZST.
I find that too confusing, after working with UTC for so long

so what kinda bugs me is the recent activity here along the cascadi

earthquake.usgs.gov...


and also a lil activity around mt lassen

earthquake.usgs.gov...

also this area near me, we havent seen this much activity in a while here, under this lake pillsbury

earthquake.usgs.gov...

reply to post by PuterMan

Nice work

I wonder if it applies to Mag 7's ?

Seems to here in NZ

Dusky Sound 2009
Darfield 2010

Just 2 recent ones off the top of my head that had a 6 aftershock

5.2 Mag Rotaroa New Zealand.

www.geonet.org.nz...

Indonesia has just rattled..

Magnitude mb 5.8
Region SULAWESI, INDONESIA
Date time 2011-05-06 06:46:25.0 UTC
Location 0.07 S ; 122.93 E
Depth 100 km
Distances 72 km S Gorontalo (pop 144,195 ; local time 14:46:25.2 2011-05-06)
98 km N Luwuk (pop 47,778 ; local time 14:46:25.2 2011-05-06)

reply to post by muzzy


I believe it does apply to the lower levels of magnitude without much doubt, which is no doubt where the theory has arisen.

It is interesting that it seems not to apply to the super-quakes.

reply to post by steve95988


The North California JDF plate area is not showing any increase in activity, indeed if anything it is tailing off ever so slightly.



Much the same could be said about the magnitudes which are trending downwards since the Jan 2010 biggish one (not shown)

also this area near me, we havent seen this much activity in a while here

I can't say I have looked at this recently, but I did a study on it last year some time. (Download it here which no one has looked at yet. You can even get a copy of the data I used.)

The purpose of this study was to determine whether the current events occurring in the area of Clear Water are part of a larger pattern and might be the pre-cursor to a larger event.
Data for the study was taken solely from the ANSS data catalog.
Data was requested from 1st January, 1970 to the current date (August 13th 2010) using the following parameters.
* catalog=ANSS
* start_time=1970/01/01,00:00:00
* end_time=2010/08/13,17:41:42
* minimum_magnitude=0
* maximum_magnitude=10
* event_type=E
* delta=0 km to 25 km from (38.8,-122.8)

The opening paragraph of the document so as you can see it is about the area you mention. It is packed with figures and graphs. The long and short of it the reason for the quakes is this:

reply to post by Anmarie96

LOL That's a new one to me my friend - never heard that one before.

A phrase I have known all my life. Particularly British, even though i did find one site trying to claim it was American

The Free Dictionary

It has been said this phrase is an abbreviation of the phrase,"No more chance than a cat in hell without claws". This refers to the hopeless situation of being without weapons (claws) when needed. I am not so sure about that.

You can understand the "Snowball in hell's chance" but that is not used here very much.

Just to keep this on topic

Almost appears that the Foreshocks are larger leading up to the main quake.

Yes I noticed that. I shall still be taking a fuller look at this later on in the year.

reply to post by PuterMan


As always, Puterman, thorough work and explanation! Thanks!

Wonder where/how the rule of thumb originated - it was certainly bounded about by geo's here after the 7.1

have been following the med area as my sister lives in Crete and noticed the activity around Etna, is this a sign that it is gearing up to erupt?