Can China Invade Taiwan?

Taishyou,

My reading of your explanation of the Succession of States theory, and I emphasise that it's my reading, would suggest that theory doesn't apply as the "revilutionary government" never completed the takeover of the country. As they never "completed" the takeover, they cannot claim dominion over all of the territories of the previous government.

I guess you could say they are in breach of contract!

Originally posted by The Middle Kingdom
The Cairo declaration said the Japan had to return Manchuria, Formosa, etc to ROC. Since China had a revolution, the PRC is now the current government. And according to the succesion of states theory PRC gets all lands that belonged to previous governements such as Taiwan.

But then you are also violating the principle of self-determination and the Treaty of Shimonoseki, which states that Chin dynasty ceded its sovereignty over Taiwan in perpetuity.

Therefore, ROC and PRC don't inherit Taiwan from Chin. And since Taiwan was a colony of Japan, the principle of self-determination should apply.

[edit on 26-10-2005 by twchang]

doenst matter who claims who on old papers. it depends on how they enforce those claims. gotta have some muscle on those claims otherwise they are papers dat belong in the trash.

[edit on 26-10-2005 by deltaboy]

Originally posted by guyverseven
Oh one more thing. Talk about BITING THE HAND THAT FEEDS YOU. Taiwan is the biggest investor in China of Manufacturing Knowledge, Capital, and Skills. Just see how many factories are Taiwanese owned. So we contribute all these benefits to China. The U.S. is the largest consumer of products from China. So without Taiwanese know-how and U.S. consumption, China would be a joke. Yes, biting the hand that feeds you. Bad doggy. So get off your high horse. The MAJOR factor powering China's economy is Taiwanese Brains and U.S. Money.

I think it is more like digging our own grave. How can you expect a tiger not to bite you if you try to feed him? It will probably eat you as well.

Hmm...it is like Taiwan is feeding a Tiger, and the US is milking it...
Very dangerous...but geez...that is how things turn out.


[edit on 26-10-2005 by twchang]

Which is why peaceful unification is a priority.

But Taiwanese know-how did not shape the PRC economy, and US consumption only made China's rise easier, not allowed it to happen.

China's economic growth until the Cultural Revolution was similar to what it is now and that was before China heavily participated in the same level of international trade it is now.

The USA, can not stop trading with China as a fat man is akin to stop eating for 3 weeks straight.

And back to Taiwan, it doesn't matter is the Qing ceded it to Japan perpetually, the Cairo and Potsdam declarations said that they had to cede it back to China which was at this time considered to be the KMT and its "allies" the CCP. See Unified Front in wikipedia.

And as far as I see China is not biting the hands that feed us, and we are doing our best to work for peaceful unification.

Whether or not its invasion or liberation is irrelevent, propogandists call it what they want, and politicians debate it for as long as they want, but there is no doubt that with China's rising economic, diplomatic and military might Unification in one form or another WILL happen. Even American science fiction authors recognize this.

As for the takeover, well it is legally complete considering that the UN switched which government they considered to trully represent China and they chose the People's Republic, we are now what the world considers China and thus the change of government is complete, and international law from there applies.

[edit on 26-10-2005 by The Middle Kingdom]

From my perspective, Taiwan's issues with China is in the lowest priority.

Taiwan should divert its investment else where to spread out the risks, and avoiding getting its hand bite off. Also, there are places that are more suitable for certain types of investment, it is just that Taiwanese business people concentrate too much on China in the past. Taiwan also needs to maintain efficient defense to protect against possible military threat. Domestically, the government needs to complete different reforms that will take quite a while. And constitutional reforms are also required. Other things such as educations, electrical power generation, public transportations, flood preventions and environmental issues also have room for improvement. Those are the priorities of Taiwan now.

Edit: The only reason why many Taiwanese and I debate about the issues with China so often is because China's threat and its different tactics to try to influence Taiwan. If China doesn't bother and left Taiwan alone, not much people in Taiwan would really care, I think.

Hm...and I really prefer the term "peaceful resolution" instead of "peaceful unification", because "peaceful unification" basically just force others to accept your term.

[edit on 26-10-2005 by twchang]

[edit on 26-10-2005 by twchang]

During the Taipei Treaty in which the KMT attended, Japan did not explain to the KMT who Taiwan belongs to afterwards, they just said they renounce it. However, the KMT most likely assumed that the next ruler of Taiwan should be them because from the Cairo Declaration, it is a demand by the Allies that Japan cede Taiwan to the ROC under the KMT upon Japan's surrender. Although the KMT has never controlled Taiwan before, Taiwan was a Chinese territory for two centuries under the Qing before the Japanese took it over, and the Allies thought it would be best that upon their defeat, that Japan should return it to China as punishment for their aggression in the first Sino-Japanese war, even if the government of China has changed since then.

Regardless of whether Japan ceded Taiwan to the KMT or not, the KMT did occupy Taiwan on behalf of the Allies and they have imposed martial law on the island for decades.

Also, during the years when the mainland was occupied by the CCP but instead ROC was recognised by the international community as the sole legiminate government of China, Taiwan have to be included in the ROC as well because that's where the government of ROC is. You can't have a government that's recognised as the sole legiminate government of a country and not have it inside its own country, that's why Taiwan must be recognised as ROC territory for this to work. They even have their capital at Taipei. Imagine how awkward that would look on a map if Taiwan were not considered territory of the ROC

When the recognition of China was shifted from the ROC to the PRC, by the Succession of States theory, Taiwan which is in ROC possession should be ceded to the PRC. Because that convention was not put in force until 1996 though, the UN didn't know what to do with Taiwan when they started recognising PRC, so they left it blank. Now that the Succession of States Theory is in place, they should resolve it based on the new convention.

Though it is true that the revolution of China is incomplete, the UN is also not willing to recognise two countries called China, because then they would have to go through the trouble of making partition treaties. They want China to be either all PRC, or all ROC, and since the PRC is bigger and more powerful, they picked PRC.

[edit on 26-10-2005 by Taishyou]

I think far too much weight is being put on the Potsdam and Cairo declarations. These are just statements of intent and goodwill, but the CCP broke all that goodwill to pieces when they attacked the US and South Korea.

The CCP knows this.

Declarations are not any where near treaties in importance in international law. There are declarations at the end of ASEAN and G8 meetings every year. Time and events change every declaration made.

The San Francisco Treaty trumps the Treaty of Taipei.

Check my links on the last page. They are VERY scholarly, HIGHLY thorough in analysis of past and current situations read and be enlightened.

japan accepted the potsdam declaration when she agreed surrender on missori

Are you listening bodebliss?

"The Three Great Allies are fighting this war to restrain and punish the aggression of Japan. They covet no gain for themselves and have no thought of territorial expansion. It is their purpose that Japan shall be stripped of all the islands in the Pacific which she has seized or occupied since the beginning of the first World War in 1914, and that all the territories Japan has stolen from the Chinese, such as Manchuria, Formosa, and the Pescadores, shall be restored to the Republic of China. Japan will also be expelled from all other territories which she has taken by violence and greed. The aforesaid three great powers, mindful of the enslavement of the people of Korea, are determined that in due course Korea shall become free and independent.
"With these objectives in view the three Allies, in harmony with those of the United Nations at war with Japan, will continue to persevere in the serious and prolonged operations necessary to procure the unconditional surrender of Japan."

The nature of this document is in the statement of the condition in which Korea would be led.

"The aforesaid three great powers, mindful of the enslavement of the people of Korea, are determined that in due course Korea shall become free and independent."

After the defeat of the ROC , Taiwan could not be returned to anyone to be enslaved. The only way this can be accomplished is if Taiwan's people now conscent to such a situation. This is the only way foreward.




PS: Chinawhite, I think your computer has a glitch in it. You should have it looked at by a professional. I noticed in your last post the print seems to be getting larger and larger.

Originally posted by bodebliss
PS: Chinawhite, I think your computer has a glitch in it. You should have it looked at by a professional. I noticed in your last post the print seems to be getting larger and larger.

i dont know why but this is quite funny.

I think that China will not invade Tiawan any time soon. Think about it. China is sitting on the sidelines biding time while Tiawan is raking in money and I'd bet a good portion of these fund are going to China in one form or another. China also knows that Tiawan would be a serious chess peice in the game of keeping the region somwhat secure for the moment. China is just waiting for things to evolve naturally before it makes its move on Tiawan. Anyway, the world knows that China is just in the catbirds seat. Why should they invade when everyone knows that they would not have a problem with it? All they have to do is keep on rattling their swords. Our 37k military men and women on the groud would be overan in a heartbeat if China really wanted to invade. Washington knows this fact. There is no clear way we could help reinforce our troops there and China knows this to. IMHO there is not going to be a play on Tiawan anytime soon unless world events have a major change whereas that it would force China to make a serious move and take Tiawan.

I think that China will not invade Tiawan any time soon. Think about it. China is sitting on the sidelines biding time while Tiawan is raking in money and I'd bet a good portion of these fund are going to China in one form or another. China also knows that Tiawan would be a serious chess peice in the game of keeping the region somwhat secure for the moment. China is just waiting for things to evolve naturally before it makes its move on Tiawan. Anyway, the world knows that China is just in the catbirds seat. Why should they invade when everyone knows that they would not have a problem with it? All they have to do is keep on rattling their swords. Our 37k military men and women on the groud would be overan in a heartbeat if China really wanted to invade. Washington knows this fact. There is no clear way we could help reinforce our troops there and China knows this to. IMHO there is not going to be a play on Tiawan anytime soon unless world events have a major change whereas that it would force China to make a serious move and take Tiawan.

This is true, though another reason why China avoids invading Taiwan would be that currently our top fighter is only comparable to the F-16 it'll be ten years before we match or exceed the F-35. And air suporiority is crucial, and it would be expencive and our ampibious assualt craft aren't enough yet to garantee success.

"The nature of this document is in the statement of the condition in which Korea would be led.

"The aforesaid three great powers, mindful of the enslavement of the people of Korea, are determined that in due course Korea shall become free and independent."

After the defeat of the ROC , Taiwan could not be returned to anyone to be enslaved. The only way this can be accomplished is if Taiwan's people now conscent to such a situation. This is the only way foreward."

It mentioned Formosa ie: Taiwan that was also to be returned to CHINA and the world recognizes the PRC as being China and you only gave us that proof by quoting it for us.

Next, Korea wasn't free or independant either way, the south became a dictatorship for decades and the north became a stalinist society.

Now the ROC was never defeated per se, only the KMT party and its forces lost to the CCP and the Red Army. Thus ROC got changed to PRC the KMT only clung to ROC inorder to maintain their place on the security council which they lost. Thus technically ROC got changed to PRC since the CCP used to be in the ROC as another party until Chiang ordered protesting workers to be shot causing the split.

The CCP never started the civil war it was the KMT who started it.

"I think far too much weight is being put on the Potsdam and Cairo declarations. These are just statements of intent and goodwill, but the CCP broke all that goodwill to pieces when they attacked the US and South Korea."

?? Your kidding right? Didn't I already bash this already? China STAYED OUT of the Korean war until N. Korea was about to be overrun, then China sent in 500,000 men to DEFEND N. Korea.

If the USSR was invading Mexico I'm damn sure that the US would send in 500,000 men too. Neither nation would allow an enemy ally ON ITS DOORSTEP.

Also China has never attacked the US or else they're would've been a war by now, they may have engaged the USMC in Korea but that is not the same thing.

Brush up on your military vocabulary and the order of engagement.

Japan surrendered (see my above link as well) under the guidelines of the Potsdam Declaration thus ceded Manchuria, Formosa, etc BACK TO CHINA. The treaty of San Francisco only made it official whereas they agreed to once and for all give up all claims and rights to an island that was for about half a century their colony.

Bodebliss you once more evaded the issue you childishly ignored his poitn and attacked his spelling/grammar/writing style yet again!?

[edit on 27-10-2005 by The Middle Kingdom]

Originally posted by bodebliss
After the defeat of the ROC , Taiwan could not be returned to anyone to be enslaved. The only way this can be accomplished is if Taiwan's people now conscent to such a situation. This is the only way foreward.

And how about the people of Okinawa? or japan or korea?

Vietnam, malaysia?

Or what about colonies in the 18th century? should they get compensation?

[This is true, though another reason why China avoids invading Taiwan would be that currently our top fighter is only comparable to the F-16 it'll be ten years before we match or exceed the F-35.

Hmmmm, It depends on a variety factors. If China masses a good chunk of its airforce, without US airpower they would wear the Taiwanese AF down by sheer numbers. With US airpower and command and control it may be a different story

Originally posted by chinawhite
In San fransico they have whole streets full of chinese, And the chiense in San fransico have many conecctions to other chinese overseas.

Taiwan is fully chinese culture, live, speak like a chiense.

While the chinese in Bendigo have no connection to outside chiense or other overseas chinese

I can feel myself going way off-topic on this one.

But explain why ethnic Chinese in Bendigo have ZERO connections to Chinese outside Bendigo. What, they are a special cult, the Chinese equivalent of the Mennonites? They swear off all modern devices and live in walled-off communities?

Ever lived in Bendigo? Read extended media reports about it? Spoken to people who live or have lived there?

I have been to bendigo(i dont think i know anyone that hasn't)

Anyway people that live in Bendigo dont represent the average australian opinion. located deep with-in australis inside it is isolated from mainstream australian culture.

Proof right there that not only do you not live in Australia but you have never been to Bendigo or read an Australian map.

Bendigo is less than three hours from Melbourne up the Calder Highway. It is located almost exactly in the centre of Victoria and these days is a city of 100,000 plus. It has light and heavy industry, limited mining activity, extensive tourism, communications, hi-tech industry and agriculture. It is the home of ADI (Australian Defence Industries), where they produce the Bushmaster APC. It has one of the largest regional Telstra offices and maintainence yards in Australia. It has a GPO that is equal in size to Adelaide's, it has more tramlines than Adelaide. It's art gallery houses a collection comparable in composition to the National Gallery in Melbourne. Bendigo is a perfect representative sample of Australian life.

Mt Isa is located deep within Australia, Alice Springs is located deep within Australia, Burke (from where we get the saying "the back of Burke") is located deep within Australia, Bendigo is situated on the eastern seaboard in comparison.

I was turning your argument back on you. Do pay attention.

Turning it back on me? I never made that argument

Strongly suggest you go back and reread your posts.

Aah, even although we have never met, had no extended discussions of the Australian political scene or corresponded over a period of years, you know how I think, with such confidence that you can make declarations about me without seeing how they might apply to you.

Is this sarcasm? i seriously dont know what to make of the above comment.

You were awfully strong in your statements about my veiws being divergent from those of mainstream Australia. You said I don't think like most Australians, but you do think like most Chinese. Really, why are you so sure of that?

You can also assume that I voted for Mark Latham, without knowing which electorate I vote in or even if I voted ALP, but I'll keep the technical lesson for another time.

I just assumed that you did because the other parties have little votes(3% max?)

so labour or the coalition.

Why not one of the 3%?

That is controlling someone's life. And they control the media, which is also controlling someone's life.

No it isn't.

They dont tell you what to eat or how much you make

If you're a farmer they do. We've already discussed this.

For someone living in Australia you have a poor understanding of Aussie slang. The verb was slag (to spit or insult (n) waste metal), the preposition was off, to slag off - to insult, to slag on - to spit.

Because no one here talk likes that. maybe in bendigo but not over in melbourne

If you slag on him then you will be arrested.

I went to school in Melbourne, mate. That's exactly how they talk in the capital of Victoria, we slagged off Joan Kirner (Miss Piggy) and Jeff Kennet.

Don't repeat yourself, you're just reinforcing your ignorance. Read the explanation and understand, it may come in handy the next time someone uses the term slag.

And geographically Melbourne is "down" from Bendigo, Adelaide is "over".

The Chinese don't need to resort to violence to get their views across, they suffer from the government's violence when they try peacefully. At least the Taiwanese are able to discuss issues that arouse such passion and that's what matters.

The government is chinese

Funnily enough, in Taipei the government is Taiwanese and, would you believe it, in Washington the government is American, but that doesn't change the facts that the central government in Beijing uses violence against its people as a standard tactic to stifle protest and dissent.

Originally posted by FredT

[This is true, though another reason why China avoids invading Taiwan would be that currently our top fighter is only comparable to the F-16 it'll be ten years before we match or exceed the F-35.

Hmmmm, It depends on a variety factors. If China masses a good chunk of its airforce, without US airpower they would wear the Taiwanese AF down by sheer numbers. With US airpower and command and control it may be a different story

Which is why they will bomb the air-fields, to stop the planes even getting off of the ground.

You do realize that to bomb every airfield within 300 miles of Taiwan is impossible.

Not only would their be dozens if not hundreds of airfields comprising "Quick and dirty" emergancy airfields, but also a largew number of these would be hidden from sataillaites through clever camoflage.

Also those airfields can be dismantled and rebuild in the time the planes spend in the air preventing the US/Taiwan from acquiring a constant target for bombing whether its by a cruise missile or through bombing runs.

Next, China's AA, SAM, and FLAK defence is not to be underestimated, attrition alone will make certain that you'll start thinking twice before you decide to send off bombers.

Next, don't believe for a second that your stealth bombers will allow you to bomb with impunity, our RADAR is undoubtably advance and sophistocated enough to detect your current stealth aircraft.

Then there's our airfoce itself, we have AWACS, we have sufficiently advanced helicopters, even if our plane is only F-16 comparable it will be sufficient with proper doctrine, training, and numbers to win some if not all engagements, but defencively there are many factors that favor us.

But yes, we'll most likely only consider defencive war one we have planes comparable or exceeding the current (as in what it is 20 years from now) American fighter.

oh and Bodebliss, after a bit of rummaging around I've discovered that in 1935 Mao was carried around in a litter, but because he was recovering from MALARIA, if you just had a run in with Malaria you'ld be in a bed for days, but if your very survival depends on moving then a litter is your only option, but he wasn't carried by slaves but by other Red Army soldiers who were undoubtable the closest thing to a medic they had.

haha .... seems no one took my analogy seriously enough to answer it ... despite the fact that the moral implications are comparable ...

The bottom line is this ... does any governmental entity truly have the right to force assimilation to such a degree?

If so, then what can be said about the moral structure of said governmental entity and its intrinsic desirability?

I think it fair to say that a significant portion of the Taiwanese society does not want reincorporation into the larger entity

(does anyone have reliable figures on societal disposition for and against?)

That being the case, then the hopes of a peaceful settlement are slim ... or at best at "gunpoint" ... which amounts to the same thing really.

So, as with my former comparison, Taiwan as the unwilling woman is taken by force?

What good is such an occupation if the inhabitants have no say ...

So with this observation as a context ... I ask the participants of this thread ... has China progressed (beyond the trappings of industrial capacity) if such basic sentiment still exists as a carry over from an older age? The age of Empire?

LCKob