John Titor: Hoax

Maybe he doesn't give absolute exact information for a simple reason, that might be too dangerous for the world. Same might apply to more vague hints like iraq or WTC. Think about if he'd say that WTC will be brought down, now every1 would believe him and the effects would be huge. It could lead to accelerated time machine researches maybe global disasters etc. the possibilities are numerous. Imho would be likely that his instructions and training dictates that he should be very vague about everything he says.

No, according to his story his training would dictate he doesn't mention this at all. He came here for his own reasons to help people survive the coming civil war. He says whatever happens on this worldline does not change anything on his own.

The thing is, its not even a matter of him not being specific about 9-11/WoT. Or Columbia, or MER, or SARS. He doesn't even mention anything like them. Its not like we would expect him to say "Stay away from the WTC on 9-11-01 as Planes are going to hit them. But he makes no mention whatsoever.

On the topic of being specific, he does try to be specific on a few occaisions, he takes a half-arsed punt at 'problems with the shuttle mission' the day of the mission launch. Quite specific, but he prefaced with 'may or may not', which really means bugger all. But, you can bet if the mission was not a success. All the Titorians would be shouting it at the top of their lungs.

I didn't think that trough at all If he's for real his influence on this 'timeline' is huge. Even though his 'timeline' would remain, I doubt that he would risk hurting people on this one.

Originally posted by browha
Here:
I swear to myself, that when I'm older, if a time machine is available to me (Which would be quite plausible, seeing as I would like to do a PhD in Physics), I will time travel back to myself and let myself know about it... Right this instant.
Well, I'm not here, so alas... Draw your own conclusions

If i was him, i wouldn't have go to a public forum. I would have made sure i had hard evidence to prove what i was saying was correct and then go to the media. If you have hard evidence, its not that easy to get shot down. The evidence i would bring would be documents, footage of the time machine and evidence brought from the future.

Physics say we are centuries away from the technology (posted information in another thread) but somehow we build one in 32 years, seven machines to be correct. How can we build a machine with technology that is centuries away, within a matter of years thats what i don't understand.

If he is telling the truth, i say we go find him now. He said he was born in 1998 or something like that so lets go and find him in our time line. When we find him, slap him and say "here's a message from the future: You grow up to be a complete arsehole"

Scientifically speaking I'm curious how you would 'anchor' the vehicle to the ground and the earth. When you think about earth in space we're huge distances from the place where we're going to be in 2036 or so.
[Edit] And also he says that we're 1-2% different than his orginal timeline. Quote: "I've also noticed little things like news events that happen at different times, football games won by other teams...things like that."
Now how would he remember or know which football team won a game 30 years ago?

[edit on 27-6-2004 by PsykoOps]

Originally posted by Kano
No, according to his story his training would dictate he doesn't mention this at all. He came here for his own reasons to help people survive the coming civil war. He says whatever happens on this worldline does not change anything on his own.

The thing is, its not even a matter of him not being specific about 9-11/WoT. Or Columbia, or MER, or SARS. He doesn't even mention anything like them. Its not like we would expect him to say "Stay away from the WTC on 9-11-01 as Planes are going to hit them. But he makes no mention whatsoever.

On the topic of being specific, he does try to be specific on a few occaisions, he takes a half-arsed punt at 'problems with the shuttle mission' the day of the mission launch. Quite specific, but he prefaced with 'may or may not', which really means bugger all. But, you can bet if the mission was not a success. All the Titorians would be shouting it at the top of their lungs.

02-09-2001 02:02 PM

Waco, Ruby Ridge and Elian exist in your news archives. Telling you about impending plane crashes or other disasters (provided I could give you exact dates and times) may save lives at one point but cause cascading changes that take others at a later point.

Seems like he did mention a few..I remember there are a few more.

Good point infinite I found it hard to believe that in 32 years we develop the tech behind time travel. When you consider a nuclear war In the united states destroying most major cites and the fact that billions of people that die world wide due to starvation and radation ect... This type of event wouldnt exactly herald in a new age of technological wonders. He states that most society is community based in the future what some farmer event a time machine in his barn?

As for the car of choice he should have picked a deloreon and used a flux compastitor

We are already performing some forms of time travel today, as well as basic teleportation, and as such, it isnt too unrealistic an idea... Perhaps we have a scientific breakthrough, or someone like myself (hopes) comes into the scientific world with a new and unique idea on how to perform time travel that revolutionizes it... I'll try think of an example.. Like.. String Theory/M-Theory!

I still don't know how can develope a technology within 32 years, its hard to believe. I have been reading into time traveling and i heard that its only a one way ticket into the past but at the end of the day, time travelling is possible but i doubt that we can build seven in 32 years. Unless there is some secret project that has been doing for the last 30 years to build one.

colbrezharly, he is just using those things as generic examples, at other times he uses Earthquakes as an example, theres others too but I don't feel like looking for them at the moment.

If I was to say "There will be Earthquakes and plane crashes in the next 35 years, but I can't give you the details". Theres a 100% chance I will be correct, does that make me a time traveller?

Kano,
First, everyone here knows that I am not trying to fit JT's comments into some sort of ideology. Rather, I am trying to argue that your JT debunking -- based on his historical 'contradictions' -- is flawed.


...But, getting on...
My dirigible comment is spot on because dirigibles are not really used anymore. In JT's world there is NO space service, so why would he be expected to be a space expert? I assume that you are not a dirigible expert...
In JT's time, in his storyline, at least, space shuttles are like dirigibles... a technology used by a recent, but not current, generation. You might say that it is unfair to ask a guy from 2004 to list dirigible accidents that occured in the 20s/30s... Ok... Do you think that your average soldier from 1956 could name the exact time and date of the:
1.R101 disaster
2.Macon disaster
3.Hindenburg disaster?

Do you really think that even an educated soldier could do this, from memory? At best, he might know that these craft were destroyed in accidents, just as someone in 2036 *might* have a vague idea that the Columbia was lost in 2003. If someone asked him about a 'shuttle accident' he would, if he were real, probaly know about an accident but not know the details. At best he would know that the shuttle program was soon to be grounded.


So, keeping all this in mind, Kano, I challenge you in this way (with these hints):
The Boeing 707 was the first jet aircraft to make a real mark in the commercial market (it is credited with creating the modern airline industry). However... there was an aircraft that came before the 707 that was actually the first commercial jeliner. It had a series of crashes and so never made it.
Kano... please apply the same level of criticism you have applied to JT to yourself. Without consulting any books or the internet, please tell me
1.The aircraft type
2.The location of any possible problems
and
3.The causes of these problems

If you can't do this, well...


As for the war on terror stuff... I'd just be repeating what I said before (which I guess you didn't read). However, i should note that the conflict JT mentions between the rural and urban areas develops AFTER civil rights start breaking down.

"Time travel is easy, we do it in one direction all the time" -Quote from the movie Timecop 2 The berlin decision.
Sorry if offtopic, but couldn't help but think about this thread when I heard that

In response to that, I think we need to remember that for such an important mission with only 7? other people travelling, its rather unlikely they would choose 'your average soldier'. Nor would they be sent back without studying the time period they are return to. At least studying the timeline between the target time and present, so they at least know where they are going to end up.

He clearly is familiar with the Shuttle missions, as he has a stab at predicting a problem with the Destiny Lab ISS mission. He also comments that they are not on Mars yet, but making an effort to do so. So he is also clearly not unfamiliar with Space Travel. So the ignorance card is a weak one to play at best. After all, even if your most average of Joes was sent back to a time when dirigibles were in use, is there anyone who would not immediately at least think Hindenburg?

Your question about the precursor to the 707 is irrelevant, I am not claiming to be a time traveller nor am I preparing for a trip in the past. Nor if I did would I make any 'may or may not' predictions about random things I was unaware of.

Quite frankly, you have made Titor into some sort of religion, and you are picking whatever tiny threads you can find to save your beliefs. Its not that he didn't specifically mention Columbia. Its not that he didn't specifically mention 9-11 or the WoT. Its not that he didn't mention SARS or the MER missions.

It is the fact that he mentioned nothing of note that has happened since he made his posts. He mentioned a pile of things that were occuring at the time. And alluded to random safe-bet items. But he didn't mention anything that would show him as telling the truth.

Beyond that, even the things that he mentioned that were already occuring (Mad Cow, Intifada) he only mentioned in a vague manner.

Hell, of the things that he did specifically mention, all of them have been wrong. His earliest solid predictions are for Waco-type events every month during 2004. With civil unrest building to the Elections. Even a civil war starting in the US in 2004. (He clarifies that when asked if its 04 or 05).

So, he mentions nothing that someone in 2000 wouldn't have known. His predictions have been wrong. (The 'may or may not' one is laughable).

BUT, EVEN WITH ALL THAT IN MIND

Cast your eyes back to the original post, luckily, as noted there, the evidence for John Titor being a hoax doesn't consist only of his omissions. Or of his incorrect predictions. It is his posting of a clearly faked 'proof' image.

Sure lacking the Scientific evidence, the chances that Titor was telling the truth is so small as to barely warrant a visit from Ockham's Razor.

But, early in the piece, he made the massive mistake of faking a 'bending light' image as proof of his gravity field.

Now, firstly, if the gravitational field was strong enough to bend the light in such a tight arc, the instructor and most of the surrounding environment would very rapidly get a lot closer to the device.

Also, the simple fact he overlooked. Was incorrectly assuming what it would look like if you bent a laser over a gravity well. All the light would be bent, not just the light from the laser pointer. The light reflected off the 'smoke' would be bent. The light passing to the camera from all around the device would be bent. The beam itself would pretty much appear straight and there would be a gravitational lensing effect around the device.

So, that picture alone shows Titor is a fake, the fact that his predictions are wrong and he didn't even come close to mentioning a single thing that has happened since he posted are just what would be expected.

He is a liar, a hoaxster and a fraud, you are welcome to choose to believe in him if you wish. I prefer to deny such ignorance.

Kano,
Again you are misrepresenting my points...
which focus on the sloppiness of your historical debunking.

First of all, someone who is pushing a religion is pushing a way of life or a metaphysical construct. They are also trying to proselytize for new members. I have done none of those things. I have never, once, commented on the value of JT's beliefs or tried to get others to believe him. What I HAVE done is point out that your debunking is not as lock shut as you think it is. The fact that you keep trying to discredit my points by claiming that I am trying to create a religion just shows that you are blindly trying to get others to NOT even pay attention to this subject.

All of my points concerning 707s, dirigibles, and the like are completely relevant. If you listened to my argument you would understand why.

But let's simplify things, here:
1.You have claimed that his ignorance of the Columbia accident -- or more specifically, that he wasn't sure when it would happen -- prove that he is a hoaxer. Again, I ask you to name the time and location of the R101 disaster. Besides the fact that I'm sure you've never even heard of it.... so why would a time traveller to OUR past know this... I'm also sure that you don't realize what a big story it was at the time. Did you realize that thousands lined the route that carried the bodies to the cathedral? That it was considered one of the causes to the end of lighter than air travel? No... at best you probably had a vague idea that there were some dirigible accidents in the 20s/30s. In the same light, JT would only have been vaguely aware that there was a shuttle accident in the early 2000s. Believe it or not, though you might consider it to be a major event (and I mean no disrespect for the crew), people in 30 years might just consider it a footnote, if they are aware of it at all. Even SOMEONE WHO WAS TRAINED to go back in time may have only heard about it in a cursory summary. If you were going back to the late 20s/30s, would you be briefed on the details of every dirigible accident OR would you be briefed on the lifestyles of that time?

2.The 'common soldier' question: JT was selected because he was related to a computer engineer. HE WAS NOT a historical expert or super genius. Though uncommon in the sense that he was related to a targeted individual, he himself was just a regular soldier who was given the training needed to operate a machine and fit into a time period (the 1970s).

3.I never claimed that JT was unaware of space travel... just that he wouldn't have had detailed information about it because it was out of use. He wouldn't have 'grown up' with launches every few weeks or so... so he would lack a sense of familiarity with it.

4.His Mars claim.... we're still NOT on Mars. The rovers DO NOT prove that he was lying. JT was NOT thinking about robotic missions, he was thinking of human ones. Simply put, by 2000 we had already landed three robots on mars and had put others in its orbit. So, even if JT was a hoaxer, he wouldn't have claimed that no robots have ever landed on Mars. So far as not knowing what's on Mars... the same points can be made. If you claim that we 'know' what's on Mars now, then we basically 'knew' what was on it in 2000. SO JT -- even a hoaxing JT -- would not have been thinking about slices of data retrieved by robots. I think any rational person can say that we don't know what's on mars yet... so it goes that a space travel-less society in 2036 would know no more than what we have already discovered.

5. Overall, Kano, you still don't realize that our current focus and perspective might not be shared in 2036. You refuse to acknowledge that a society that suffered millions of nuclear deaths might group 9-11 in with the dozens of terrorist attacks that have occured in our time, or that the Columbia accident might just be a historical footnote that is vaguely remembered by the average person.

In the end, Kano, your 'debunking' is weak. I'm not trying to prove that JT was real -- in fact that might not be possible. I am saying, though, that you haven't proved that he wasn't.

I have to disagree with you there OIMD. You are treating it more like a religion than ever, clinging even harder to your beliefs as they drain away like so much effluent.

You have focused on the weakest point of the multiple evidences against Titor. You haven't addressed the overall debunking at all. In fact you continue to pick the weakest points of the weakest points, trying to block your ears and sing it away.

Don't act like his comments regarding the shuttle could be interpreted as a reference to the Colombia. He was taking a punt with regards to the ISS mission. Again I point out we cant twist his words to mean what we want them to.

Well, the R101 incident (which you are quite correct, I did not know anything about) happened almost 74 years ago. Also well before the age of worldwide communications or video cameras to record the spectacular footage.

Now, he was aware of the shuttles, as he tried to predict a problem with connecting the new lab. If he is pretending to have that much specific knowledge, why would we expect him not to know about the Columbia crash?

Now, as far as the MER mission, I was not inferring that that disqualifies his 'we are not on Mars yet' statement. But just pointing out it as yet another thing he completely failed to mention. According to him efforts are still being made at reaching the red planet. We do know a hell of a lot more now than we did in 2000. You may think that any rational person can say that we don't know what's on mars yet. But thats simply not the case. We are already quite sure what is on Mars, bugger all, thats what. What has been on Mars previously has yet to be figured out conclusively. We do know there was running water. Which in itself is a lot more than we knew in 2000. He also says they are making an effort to get to Mars, they arent unfamiliar with space travel.

As far as grouping 9-11 with a series of terrorist incidents. Sure, he could have done that. But the thing is he didn't. He didn't mention terrorism at all. He mentioned the Palestinian/Israeli conflict. He didn't mention a wider conflict. He didn't even allude to a wider conflict involving terrorism.

Now, anyway, I need to make the same two points that you seem to keep ignoring.

Firstly, any of these points on their own are obviously not enough to suggest that he was lying. (Well, the WoT one is pretty big, but doesn't go all the way by itself). These are all just examples of the wider point. The one you keep ignoring.

The simple fact is. He mentioned nothing that has happened since he was here. He mentioned the Intifada, and Mad Cow. Both were already happening. He mentioned nothing that wouldn't already be known by someone in that time.

Even wider again, we tie this in with the facts that the things he did predict have not come to pass. (ie the beginning of the civil uprising, the open civil war starting THIS YEAR in the US.

Now, we combine these two points,
1. The fact he didn't mention anything that has happened since 2000, even though there have been some MAJOR developments around the world since then.
2. The things he DID predict have been wrong.

We end up with a solid case for just ignoring him as a hoax. If he is that clearly false in his predictions and that massive in his oversights. It puts all his other statements in the 'useless' barrel.

But still, that alone is not quite complete. He might just be a complete idiot, and thats why hes getting it all wrong, or maybe he was from the future and just screwing with us.

So, for the clincher, we have our scientific evidence. Which, by happy coincidence, is the one piece of 'scientific' evidence he tries to give for his machine being operational. The fact that that single image is faked is enough to blow his story out of the water. He faked the single most important piece of evidence of his whole story.

Now, that alone is enough to show his lies. But we combine that with the fact that everything he did say has been useless. We end up with a scenario in which its amazing anyone could even still continue to believe in Titor's hoax.

I'll try to back up and be diplomatic here.

JT CANNOT be proven. I DO NOT believe in him. However, the 'proofs; against him are still lacking. Here's why.

Though I had originally just focused on the errors of your history arguments, Kano, something can be said about the laser picture debunkment. earlier today I posted a thread about the theory that the speed of light -- taken for decades as a universal constant -- may in fact not be a constant. The implication of this is that all the properties of light are not necessarily known. The observable effects of gravity on light, then, cannot be taken for granted. I am not saying that Einstein is totally wrong -- indeed, JT's story relies on the einsteinian notion that gravity can warp space-time -- but I AM saying that no living man can be certain about the verifiability of observations regarding gravity and light (in reality, a variety of astronomical observations have shown that the gravitational effects of stars can make objects beyind them appear to 'shift' position in relation to cameras).

...But, I am not a physicist, and my goal is not to debunk your debunking on the basis of science. I am here, as I've said before, to point out why your historical analysis may be wrong...

So, here we go (again)...
Let's be honest, if, at some point in the future, it becomes apparent that humans can move through space-time by means of artificial singularities, everyone will have to wonder if JT was legit... though from a divergent universe. At the point where travel via manipulation of spacetime has been proven once, the JT story will become plausible again (just as stories about the Viking landings ((and those of Irish monks)) became plausible after thorough retroactive readings of history). I think it's fair to say that once one space-time transport via singularities that have been toyed with in the manner JT describes occurs, that all skeptics will have to re-evaluate the JT data and story . After all, if the possibility of something has been proven, then the reality of it having happened is worth looking into,....no, Kano?

On the other hand...
If events happen over the next few years that amount to more than 2% of divergence (which may have been magnified by Titor himself) with JT's timeline... the skeptics have won. If, for instance, we contact aliens -- or some other big event happens -- then Titor was clearly a hoax. However, it's important to note that such debunking events must be outside of human control, because Titor's theoretical existence has (if he was real) affected our timeline. A civil war may have been averted because of his posts -- and reports from contemporary temporal recon units may have led us to our present situation.

My ultimate analysis is this:
1.The development -- in the near future -- of travel via things like singularities makes Titor's story realistic. If, even years from now, someone moves *something* in the same way we will have to reconsider Titor and wonder if he was real.
2.The Titor story is so well-written that only events caused by non-human forces can fully debunk it. A colliding asteroid or alien invasion would do the trick... but the relative strength of the civil war prediction can always be explained away by the '2% divergence' and freedom to change the future that Titor discussed.
3.Debunking Titor on the basis of historical details or tidbits doesn't make sense. take the Columbia example... JT may only have known that, in the 2000s, that there was a shuttle accident. Ok, so you say his prediction was ISS centered... How can we say that there won't be an ISS-shuttle accident in the future.... or that 2% divergence doesn't explain this (a piece of falling fuel tank foam equals less than 2% odds in my book)?
4.In the end, JT was probably a hoax, but it has yet to really be disproven. Even the laser light debunkment can be refuted because not everything is known about gravity and light. The JT story, then, is almost an unprovable and un-debunkable tale.

Firstly, in such an outlandish case the burden of evidence is well and truly upon Titor to prove his claims. Otherwise he is asking people to 'just believe' his story. (Sound like a religion yet?)

Now, he gives very little 'evidence'. In fact, one major scientific piece he does give is in a inexplicably bad quality image of a laser light being bent. Thinking that as anyone knows light is bent by gravity, it would be enough to fool everyone into believing him. However, he himself made the mistake of not realising that the laser light would not be the only light bent. The light we are 'seeing' the laser with is the actual laser light itself, just reflected back off the 'smoke' particles. (Which would have been sucked to the device in any case). The reflected light would also be bent, thus the beam would appear straight either way. Plus there is the whole material problems with having such an intense gravitational field that he always fails to address.

You are also relying on the 2% divergance a little too much. Remember this means that 49 times out of 50. Events and things are exactly the same as his worldline. Again maybe the shuttle alone was explainable by that. But surely we can't blame the fact that he has got EVERYTHING wrong on that tiny little 2%?

So he comes on these online forums. Makes these ridiculous claims, the evidence he does give is flawed. All of his predictions are wrong. He misses massive predictions he really should have made. Gives generalised statements and then demands people believe in him?

Its barely worth the time to break out the old Ockhams.

On a similar note (and I know we've been here before, but).

I am Batman. You can't conclusively prove I'm not, therefore I am.

Originally posted by Kano
Firstly, in such an outlandish case the burden of evidence is well and truly upon Titor to prove his claims. Otherwise he is asking people to 'just believe' his story. (Sound like a religion yet?)


Its barely worth the time to break out the old Ockhams.

On a similar note (and I know we've been here before, but).

I am Batman. You can't conclusively prove I'm not, therefore I am.

Well, yes, the burden is on Titor... up until the point where something like this does happen. Right now Titor's claims are outlandish... but it is possible that a future society might use artificial singularities (or a method that involves them) to actually move through space and time. Now, logically, if a situation is not impossible or outlandish at one point in time, it is not out of the realm of possibility that it could have happened at other, nearby, points in time.

My point: If, in the next few years, such manipulation of space-time DOES occur, JT hoaxers will be forced to concede that JT' s scenario *might* have occured. In the same sense, we know that the first powered, heavier than air flight occured in 1903... yet it isn't 'impossible' that a similar flight, conducted by different people, might have occured in 1900. If we were using Kano's logic, his narrow interpretation of Ockham's razor would mean that the 1903 flight of the Wright brothers didn't happen because such an accomplishment would be hard to believe in 1900.

...But... as for Ockham's razor... contrary to popular belief, Ockham said that, in general, an occurence that required few steps was more likely to have happened than an occurence that required a multitude of steps... that is, the less complicated an explanation, the more likley it is to be true. Now, this contrasts with the popular notion that Ockham was saying that the more fantastic something was the less likely it was to be true (the notion that I think Kano was invoking). In the end, if the manipulation of singularities occurs within a few years... the naysayers will be forced to concede that the JT story is not impossible.

And, considering that the main debunking of JT revolves around the argument that his story is impossible... if it becomes clear that space-time manipulation via singularities is possible, the debunkers will have to concede that his story is not 'fantastic'... and so they will not be able to use that argument against what he says.

Titor talks of "Worldlines" and a 2% divergence when travelling, resulting in the highly improbable event of him landing in his own, earlier Worldline.

As long as the divergence is not too great, the Worldline will only have slight diiferences, which is what allowed him to get his precious IBM machine.

He claims that changes he makes will not affect his original Worldline as he is not actually in it. He does not divulge, to any great degree, specific information that can be used to adjust events which have already occurred in 2036.

Now, posting his story on various conspiracy sites contravenes this rule in as much as, those people involved in in the original e-mail have spent valuable time communicating with him when they would have been doing something else, same goes for all of those including myself who have read all about JT since.

Now this wasted time, for the most time would be insignificant, but of all the thousands of people who have had any dealings, however small, there will be a knock on effect (chaos theory) that would have a major impact on this Worldline, one of you lot maybe the mother/father of a future president or fundamentalist.

Also, JT created a new worldline the second he started to travel back in time (theory of relativity).

Does any of that make sense..??