Solar Activity Watch 2010

reply to post by lasertaglover

Correct.

Flares are strictly a matter of electromagnetic radiation. They have no effect on the surface of Earth. A very, very strong flare could put astronauts at risk during an EVA but other than that the only effects are on the ionosphere itself. Increased ionization caused by a solar flare can affect radio communications by altering the reflection and transmission of radio waves.

Any flare which is detected is "directed" at Earth. The electromagnetic radiation travels in all directions from its source.

Originally posted by Phage
reply to post by lasertaglover

 

Correct.

Flares are strictly a matter of electromagnetic radiation. They have no effect on the surface of Earth. A very, very strong flare could put astronauts at risk during an EVA but other than that the only effects are on the ionosphere itself. Increased ionization caused by a solar flare can affect radio communications by altering the reflection and transmission of radio waves.

Any flare which is detected is "directed" at Earth. The electromagnetic radiation travels in all directions from its source.

Thanks for the validation.

I am curious though, since you do seem to have a lot of knowledge regarding this topic, do you have any links regarding the dangers of flare activity to astronauts during an EVA? I would love to learn more about that, but I would think that they would have enough time to return inside before the energy released from the flare struck? And if not, what would happen? Actual radiation burns? So, two questions really, or links for the info, wouldn't they have enough time to get back inside, and if they don't, what then? Thanks in advance.

reply to post by lasertaglover

Nope. No time. We are only aware of flares when the radiation reaches us. There is no warning. The radiation is not powerful enough to be instantly damaging. But exposure to the radiation of a powerful flare, over period of time, could be damaging or even fatal.

Flares are classified by the flux of "soft" xrays (up to .8A). These xrays are stopped by just about anything,including a spacesuit. It's the higher energy xrays which can be dangerous. Flares which produce dangerous levels of xray radiation are rare but they are of concern.

Using the observed rate of solar X-ray outbursts of different magnitudes, they worked out that a lunar astronaut has a 10% chance of receiving a dangerous dose of X-rays from a solar flare for every 100 hours of activity outside of shelters.

www.newscientist.com...

reply to post by Phage


Wow! So ok, that's instant quick and pretty amazing.

Thanks for the follow-up and link!

Cool view of the sun, and spots 1106 and 1108 from Solarcycle 24.

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/cefb2c3900a6.png[/atsimg]

www.solarcycle24.com...

sidc.oma.be...

Probability of M class flare is now 10%
www.swpc.noaa.gov...

Thanks for the update.

Still looks cool though.

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/4a46633d2b1c.gif[/atsimg]

umbra.nascom.nasa.gov...

Not much change at all with our current sunspots, 1106 and 1008. Still a 10% chance of M-class flares with 1108. Better chance for Northern Lights when a solar wind stream should reach Earth by the 22nd. That's it.

Have a great day!

Thanks for the updates but i have a question.... its related to the following quote, regarding sunspots.

In the mid-17th Century, a quiet spell - known as the Maunder Minimum - lasted 70 years, and led to a "mini ice age".

Can you explain how a quiet sun"no sunspots" can have an effect on earths conditions, such as the ice age, could our very quiet sun have anything to do with the recent "whacky" weather we have had as of late, such as all the snow?

reply to post by Itop1


The verdict is not in, in regards to the Maunder Minimum and its affect on 'The Little Ice Age'.

The evidence would suggest that there is a relationship between the two, but more data is being studied before that determination is made.

There was also a strong solar 'minimum' type period in 1913, with 311 sun spotless days. More study needs to be done between global temperatures and solar activity, especially in regards to long periods of little solar activity like the Maunder Minimum.

Hope this helps

theresilientearth.com.../scientists-discover-sun-does-affect-earths-climate

and also,

www.space.com...

The active region which is just starting to rotate into view seems to be a bit more active than the last batch. Xray levels have been gradually ramping up a bit and there was a brief C2 flare a while ago.

reply to post by Phage


Hey, I really appreciate the update and I am very much looking forward to any new activity.

Thanks.

Latest from SpaceWeather.com. They think it might be old Sunspot 1105 coming back around.

"FAILURE TO LAUNCH: Sept. 21st began with a eruption on the sun's northeastern limb that ... couldn't ... quite ... lift off...The one-hour blast produced neither a bright flash of electromagnetic radiation (a "solar flare") nor a substantial coronal mass ejection (CME). It just bounced up and down above the stellar surface. More potent events may be just around the corner. A magnetic active region crackling with B- and C-class solar flares is about to emerge over the northeastern limb. Indeed, this event probably came from its leading edge. Stay tuned for solar activity. "


spaceweather.com...

With all the warnings from nasa and the science people about 2012... they seem to be "gradually" getting more serious about it, appearing more often on news media...

how exactly can we prepare for 2012 if something was to hit us badly, is there anything we can do to preserve the electrical equipment in our houses and our car ?

nasa and others warn and tell us to be prepared but they dont tell us how to prepare....

reply to post by Itop1

Can you point out some of these warnings about 2012 from NASA and "science people"?

Originally posted by Phage
reply to post by Itop1

 

Can you point out some of these warnings about 2012 from NASA and "science people"?

sure

www.timesonline.co.uk...

www.telegraph.co.uk...

www.siasat.com...


Nasa also made an official post on the NASA website back in 2006 and the most recent in june on this year which i read at the time, but i cant find them on the website anymore, eather im not looking hard enough or they were deleted.

i found it

science.nasa.gov...

reply to post by Itop1

Yes, we know we are moving into solar maximum (which is predicted for July of 2013, btw). There is no particular warning for 2012. Not from NASA or "science people", only from general consumption media and "2012ists", who usually get anything having to do with science wrong. The solar max is predicted to be of much lower than average intensity.
solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov...
The prediction you posted is very obsolete.

While more likely during solar maximum, a very large CME (which can lead to a very strong geomagnetic storm) can occur at any time. Next week, next year, or not for 100 years. Science has no way to predict it.

As to what we can do to prepare for such an event. Not a whole lot, just the standard disaster preparations would do just fine (full tank of gas, drinking water, etc). Geomagnetic storms only affect very long electrical conductors (like powerlines). The geomagnetic activity induces power surges which can damage transformers. What happens is power outages, it is the power companies who really need to prepare. Your electronics and car will be unaffected (assuming you have surge protectors installed, which you already should).

The only other thing I would like to add to the great conversation above, is something that sounds really dumb, but it is actually one of the most important things for survival...socks!

I see so many people here on ATS giving advice on how to prepare for an emergency, and most of the ideas are really good. But my stint in the Army, road-marching more miles than I ever care to remember, taught me that socks are really important, because in a situation that requires you to make it out on foot, and your feet are covered in blisters from bad or dirty socks or shoes, and you have no car...you are going no where very fast without socks. It's just like the old saying, KISS..keep it simple sweety! Clean socks can also be used for first aid treatment in a number of ways as well. So please, pack some clean socks, and remember in all things, feet first!

Anyway, now that my sock rant is over (pack at least 2-3 pairs of socks per person in your immediate family) (almost over lol), SpaceWeather is getting excited about the new active sunspot group, 1109.

From SpaceWeather.com:

"Update: More potent events may be in the offing. The bouncing prominence was at the leading edge of a big sunspot group (AR1109) now rotating into view over the sun's northeastern limb. NOAA forecasters say it poses a threat for C- and M-class eruptions."

"Emerging sunspot 1109 poses a greater than 40% chance of C-class solar flares during the next 24 hours."

spaceweather.com...


M-class action is still only at a 10% chance.

Have a great day! (and pack some socks!) (sock rant now over lol)

Yeah!!!!

Lots of stuff happening now. BUT,NOTHING that is going to mess with the earth in any way negative.

Quote from SpaceWeather:

"GLOBAL ERUPTION: This morning between 0230 UT and 0600 UT, the northern hemisphere of the sun erupted in a tumult of activity. At least two dark magnetic filaments became unstable and lifted off the stellar surface, a B8-class solar flare flashed from sunspot 1109, and a bright coronal mass ejection billowed into space (SOHO movie)....

...The eruption is reminiscent of the global event of August 1st, which hurled a CME toward Earth and sparked Northern Lights in the United States as far south as Iowa. This time, however, the CME will miss Earth (unless it veers off course) so there should no resulting geomagnetic activity"

spaceweather.com...

Also, Northern Light Watchers might get a chance if they live pretty far north for a show tonight from a solar wind.

Pic is from SolarCycle24:

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/49d959b37e7a.jpg[/atsimg]

www.solarcycle24.com...

reply to post by lasertaglover


Hate to say this but...........Told you so.
Nothing out of the usual and people mocked when I said on more than one occasion that the suns activity would start?

Its all clearly written for you all to read and take in. The Bible says so. God doesn't lie.
The bowls of Gods anger?
Time will soon tell.
The events which will take place after the sun will be the kingdom of the beast.
Oh I forgot to mention earthquakes etc.
But yeah I'm wrong because we all know that cme's etc don't effect earth do they.