SCI/TECH: Satellites Record Weakening North Atlantic Current

Originally posted by Indy
What do you call a long time? 5 years? 10 years?

I don't know.....that's what I'm asking

[edit on 7/20/2004 by LadyV]

Ah sorry. Didn't see a question mark in your post . Things are changing so fast now that unless you are 90 or in poor health or just have bad luck (getting hit by a bus) I think you'll see the change in your lifetime. Sooner rather than later im guessing.

Well it has been at least 3 days now and this odd pattern in the tropics continues. This is the source of the images I have posted.

www.oceanweather.com...

I'm sure it hasn't but is it possible that the current may have reversed direction and is now flowing from north to south? I'm sure its unlikely but it just looks as if the cold water is being pulled in from the north instead of simply raising to the surface. Any comments?

But heres A question. Is this a recent thing, or could this all be simply a runner up to one hell of an El Nino? If the water is getting colder in the Atlantic, then what is happening in the Pacific, where El Nino starts growing? has anyone else been monitoring this?

over the uk in the north west we have had a heat wave and thunderstorms and the same time, and the wind is warm aswell

Originally posted by Skadi_the_Evil_Elf
But heres A question. Is this a recent thing, or could this all be simply a runner up to one hell of an El Nino? If the water is getting colder in the Atlantic, then what is happening in the Pacific, where El Nino starts growing? has anyone else been monitoring this?

Its funny you say that because now it is forecasted that el Nino will return in a couple of months. Should make for an interesting winter.

I live in Missouri and have never had a summer this cool in my 32 years here,watching the meteor shower last night I needed a jacket and now the news is saying tonight will be even colder and that this weather trend will continue into atleast the next few weeks.

I'm use to lower to mid 90's in August not high's in the low to mid 70's and lows in the 50's

I think it's all happening faster than they want to believe.

I'm ready for the temps to cool off some more. I like cool temps and don't care too much for all the high heat and humidity. I am curious if the crops in the northern states are doing ok though. I believe if it doesn't get warm enough for long enough, then they don't harvest much.

I'm also hoping the price of natural gas doesn't skyrocket this winter if we get a cold snap.

Originally posted by Simon_Boudreaux
I live in Missouri and have never had a summer this cool in my 32 years here,...

Same here! I live in Montreal and this has been the coolest summer I can ever recall (36).

Does this make sense?

Last night and this morning I was looking at the jet-stream it was looped all the way down into the southern US (almost to Florida). No doubt pulled south by Charley.

My questions are this:
What happens if the jet links up with a hurricane?
Does it suck all that moisture into the north?
Do the wind speeds add up?
are they even in the same direction?
Has this ever happened?

Has the jet ever been pulled down south enough that the top of the loop pinches together breaking off a VERY large circular air stream?

Now that would this set off some nasty weather!

Originally posted by leejones
over the uk in the north west we have had a heat wave and thunderstorms and the same time, and the wind is warm aswell

Europe animation (on friday 13th)...
It sure looks like some hell of a weather is building up right now, at least over UK.
At the same time we have these two storms over Florida.
Then again, I could be wrong about it.
But it sure looks like .... trouble.
Thunderstorms, floodings, occasionally a local tornado here and there...
Just kidding about the tornado (I hope) but it�s going to be wet, that�s for sure.
I�m posting this now, but in a few hours it�s going to look different.
Hopefully to the better.

We set two records today in Indianapolis. A record low of 47 degrees and a record low maximum of 64 degrees. These temperatures are normal for October 19th. Our temps today were nearly 20 degrees below normal. Before calculating in today's numbers our departure from normal for the month is -5.1 degrees which is by far the coolest summer month I've experienced since I moved here back in 1995. The 3rd coolest summer month since I lived here was last month.

BTW... Thanks for the weather link. I added it to my favorites.

Its really weird, I live in Philadelphia and we have been getting these El Ninio type thunderstorms every so often. The little creek that runs through our apartment complex gets really flooded. I have never seen rainstorms like this except in North Carolina during a hurricane.

Originally posted by UM_Gazz

Originally posted by J0HNSmith
I wonder if that means the north east hurricane season is going to be worse this year.

Great question JOHNSmith, I have been watching the atlantic for a while now and I am really watching the systems now evolving off of the western coast of Africa.. as I believe what happens to these storms once in the Atlantic will show how much the ocean current weakening has changed things.. I believe it is worse than we are being told because the real data does show a very dramaitc change perhaps a few super massive hurricanes, very slow moving and more powerful than we've seen in our lifetimes? Of course in a world of extremes it could end up being extremely calm. only time will tell.

Gazz

Well here we are and some time has passed, and as I suspected on a personal level I have found confirmation in the current extreme tropical weather systems.

Proof of climate change?.. NO.. But part of the picture I tried to show when I started this thread some time ago.

Where do we go from here... Well (I hope I am wrong) but the weather on a global scale will continue to get more extreme.. in all forms.. Just watch and see what happens this winter!

I'll be back with more then!

Until then.. Have fun!

Gazz

I'm beginning to think very much along the same line as you are.

Originally posted by Outland

Originally posted by UM_Gazz
"...I have been watching the atlantic for a while now and I am really watching the systems now evolving off of the western coast of Africa.. as I believe what happens to these storms once in the Atlantic will show how much the ocean current weakening has changed things.. I believe it is worse than we are being told because the real data does show a very dramaitc change perhaps a few super massive hurricanes, very slow moving and more powerful than we've seen in our lifetimes?

That was posted over three weeks prior to this post. From my observations, the weather systems needed for anticyclone activity off of Africa have only started to energize in the past week or so. Even so, air pressure systems between Africa and the Carribean appear to be too disorganized at the moment to help form or sustain a depression. Of course, this could change at any time.

Theoretically, if there is less of a warm water mass flowing to the north from the Gulf stream, then there would be less energy available to sustain a severe hurricane. So if the Gulf stream does weaken in terms of flow or thermal energy, this would diminish hurricane activity and not worsen it.

Based on my theories and observed solar and hurricane data over the past 255 years, I predict a slightly below average season for Alantic hurricane activity numbering about 6 hurricane class disturbances. NOAA predicts a "50% probability of an above-normal hurricane season".

We'll see who's right, but for a hurricane season that is predicted to be "above normal", we should have seen some action by now. Depressions in the Pacific so far this year have quickly fizzled and Atlantic activity so far is nill.

Sorry for the big quote here.. But I have to ask... Who is winning this argument?

Gazz

No slam here, but it's a good thing that outland doesn't work at the NHC!

UM_Gazz said:
"...as I suspected on a personal level I have found confirmation in the current extreme tropical weather systems."

Define "extreme". In the normal sense of the word, there is nothing extreme about this season's tropical weather.

Compare this year's Atlantic record so far with that of 1887. That year experienced a hurricane season that started in mid-July and ran through mid-December with a total of 19 disturbances. Unfortunately, the exact number of hurricane class disturbances is not known due to a lack of means to accurately measure wind speeds in that era. I don't think that the Saffir-Simpson scale existed then.

Fast-forward to 1933 which still holds the record at 21 Atlantic disturbances with 10 believed to be hurricane force between mid-May and mid-October. As told by G.E. Dunn of the Washington Weather Bureau in 1934,

"Twenty-one tropical disturbances were reported this year in the Caribbean Sea, the Gulf of Mexico and the southern portion of the Atlantic. This is the largest number observed in any one season in 46 years of record. Hitherto 16, in 1887, had the greatest number; since that time only 9 years have reported 10 or more."

Actually, there were ten years with 10 or more disturbances in those 46 years, but that's beside the point.

Extreme? The most intense (based on 892mb sea-level air pressure) category 5 Atlantic hurricane (unnamed) on record hit the Florida Keys in 1935. Hurricane Gilbert (1988) ranks similarly, but the air pressure of 888mb was estimated from flight data. The decade of 1940-1949 holds the record for 23 total U.S. mainland hurricane strikes (Atlantic & Pacific) and the single-year strike records belong to 1916 and 1985 with 6 each.

Overall (and as stated by numerous meteorologists), this year's hurricane season is quite average.

UM_Gazz said:
"Well (I hope I am wrong) but the weather on a global scale will continue to get more extreme.. in all forms.. Just watch and see what happens this winter!"

More extreme? So far, global tropospheric temp anomalies between mid-May through August were below average, peaking at -0.213�C. The mean Northern hemisphere Summer temps have been below normal globally.

UM_Gazz said:
"But I have to ask... Who is winning this argument?"

It's too early to tell, but if Jeanne makes hurricane class, it'll be #6 with a few weeks left in an average hurricane season. However, ocean current data seen today at OceanWeather.com may suggest yet another depression forming off the coast of Africa, well behind Jeanne.

But let's make the "argument" more complete... See my extended forecast posted back on 6-7-2004 (#644443) under the thread of Summer is Turned into Winter Across Parts of the UK.

I will note that many trees in parts of the upper Midwest are already starting to show Fall colors.


[edit on 16-9-2004 by Outland]

And it looks like I was correct about the next depression with a first advisory posted 16/2100Z (many hours after my previous post).

Jeanne has of course made it to hurricane class. We'll see if Tropical Depression #12 turns into Hurricane Karl as predicted by NOAA.

[edit on 16-9-2004 by Outland]

Outland, for you even after five major hurricanes go over your house you won't find it as extreme weather for some reason. Go figure. Oh btw, you did not mention anything about the hurricane season in your report, at least not the one you pointed us to.

[edit on 16-9-2004 by Muaddib]

Originally posted by Outland
And it looks like I was correct about the next depression with a first advisory posted 16/2100Z (many hours after my previous post).

You were right about something!

Great work!.. amazing even!!

Really what about the bigger picture?

Climate change as I have laid it out here in this thread.

I will leave that thought.. as I am working on this.. and I must tell you now that it does not look good.

I could post links try to explain it... and create a long boring post that no one really wants to read.

It is hard to prove something that has not yet happened.. and even harder to convince even the most educated among us as to the reasons.

It is a combination of things... among them intuitive skills and a will to pour through thousands of pages of data to see the end result.

This is not something that will be explained in this post or even in this thread. The change is coming and will be even more dramatic than I suspected.. the fear I have is it will be worse and even sooner than I originally thought.

But then again I could be wrong!

Gazz