SCI/TECH: Satellites Record Weakening North Atlantic Current

Originally posted by J0HNSmith
I wonder if that means the north east hurricane season is going to be worse this year.

Great question JOHNSmith, I have been watching the atlantic for a while now and I am really watching the systems now evolving off of the western coast of Africa.. as I believe what happens to these storms once in the Atlantic will show how much the ocean current weakening has changed things.. I believe it is worse than we are being told because the real data does show a very dramaitc change perhaps a few super massive hurricanes, very slow moving and more powerful than we've seen in our lifetimes? Of course in a world of extremes it could end up being extremely calm. only time will tell.

Gazz



[edit on 12-6-2004 by UM_Gazz]

You can also go here to keep an eye on buoy reports.

www.ndbc.noaa.gov...

cool! What it sounds like to me is El Nino, when water in the ocean stops it heats up much faster. I just didn't know what that would mean in terms of the next hurricane season.

You have to go down to buoy number 41010 located east of Daytona Beach to find a report of a water temp warm enough to support a tropical system. Water temps remain in the upper 70's until about 35N where they drop off rapidly. I think 35N is near Cape Hatteras, NC. Water temp in this area is 77.9F. The water temp at the buoy at 30.0N is 78.6F. Notice the slight temp change from 30N to 35N. The Buoy at 40N is at 60.6F. That is a 17.3F degree drop from 35N to 40N versus only a 0.7F drop from 30N to 35N. 40N is around the middle of the Jersey coast line. Obviously the water temps are no where warm enough to support a tropical system. Does anyone have historical data for water temps for these regions?

So any ideas when this would happen. Either way I wonder what do we do if this is going to happen. But isn't it ironic global warming could lead to colder weather. Me personally i'm somewhat scared that this could become a reality in a short amount of time.

Originally posted by cyberdude78
So any ideas when this would happen. Either way I wonder what do we do if this is going to happen. Me personally i'm somewhat scared that this could become a reality in a short amount of time.

Cyberdude, sorry I have been caught up in other things. I want you as well as anyone else who reads this to know that the global climate change discussed in this thread is based on real facts, pure science and good sources of data available to everyone. Now I do NOT think there is any reason for you to be afraid. The very near future will change but it will be subtile at first. the weather patterns will bring more extremes. and in that just look at the weather where you live. now look into the past for your area. You will find that there is change in the works. and that same chage will reach everyone in time. NO you are not going to wake up and have to dig your way out from 9 stories of snow. But rather you will see a dramatic change in extreme weather in your local area. and that applies for everyone who reads this. By all accounts of experts who should know the complete shift to a cold climate and what some would call an "Ice Age" will take between 20 and 100 years. and some of those same experts say that the weather extremes between now and then is what we should worry about. Just keep an eye out for the signs. look for yourselves and don't take mine or anyone else's word for it. Oh and by the way... Have a nice day!

Gazz







[edit on 15-6-2004 by UM_Gazz]

You know what the great thing is about living in our current time? Yes it might be turbulant but unlike past civilizations we have the ability to monitor changing weather well in advance. 110 years ago a catastropic climate change would have wiped out almost everyone. Look at the Galveston hurricane of 1900. No one saw it coming. Thousands died. Today the only people that would die would be the few idiots that chose to ignore evacuation warnings. We have the ability today to adapt.

The lack of accurate weather forecasting in the past has undoubtedly led to high fatality counts in extreme weather events, like the Galveston hurricane and others. In my coldest analysis, these high death counts are like a Gaian buffering agent; if humankind is causing the climatic changes that are resulting in extreme weather events, the deaths they cause will tend to alleviate the conditions that cause the extreme weather. If things get bad enough, and humans are the real underlying cause, maybe enough people will be killed so that things will return to "normal". The more worser things get, the more better things will be getting. If that makes any sense at all.

UM_Gazz said:
"Mars is a good example of a world gone wrong..... But it is not beyond imagination to see the same thing happen here."

Unless you can imagine Earth's magnetic field totally collapsing.

What happened to Mars' atmosphere is likely based on whatever reason why the planet lost its magnetic field.

Article: The Solar Wind at Mars

Today... July 2nd, 2004 buoy 44018 monitored by the NDBC registered a 15 degree drop in temperature in 3 hours. This is one of 3 buoys in the general region that has shown some wild temperature swings over he past several days. The winds didnt indicated anything unusual. They averaged a direction of SSE to SSW all day and the speeds were usually between 11 and 15mph. There is nothing to indicate that any great storm system came through that could have caused such a temperature swing. Any ideas? Or comments?

Originally posted by Indy
Today... July 2nd, 2004 buoy 44018 monitored by the NDBC registered a 15 degree drop in temperature in 3 hours. This is one of 3 buoys in the general region that has shown some wild temperature swings over he past several days. The winds didnt indicated anything unusual. They averaged a direction of SSE to SSW all day and the speeds were usually between 11 and 15mph. There is nothing to indicate that any great storm system came through that could have caused such a temperature swing. Any ideas? Or comments?

Err.....did you just take that from the Movie the Day After Tomorrow? Except for the buoy number, the drop in temperature is almost the same as in the movie....

Anyway, it could be an anomaly......gulp.....*remembers part of the movie when an oceanographer tells another the same thing*

Where is that buoy at? Did you check the readings of the same buoy in the past three or four years around this time?

Here is a link to the info.
www.ndbc.noaa.gov...
humm, it does look strange, but we need oceanographers to tell us if there is anything wrong with that.

It does seem strange. I see spikes of almost 5-7 degrees in one hour, and instead of getting warmer, its getting colder during the day.


MMDD TIME WDIR WSPD GST WVHT DPD APD PRES PTDY ATMP WTMP DEWP
0702 11:50 am SSE 15.5 17.5 1.6 8 5.3 - 30.06 -0.04 55.0 45.3 54.0

0702 10:50 am SE 13.6 15.5 1.6 8 5.7 - 30.06 -0.06 60.8 52.9 59.0




[edit on 3-7-2004 by Muaddib]

Sorry I forgot to post the link from where I got the data at but it was from the exact same location you referenced. As of right now that buoy is reporting just over 60 degrees. 44008 just to the south of it is 8 degrees colder. If the current is unstable and sinking farther below the surface it could be forcing colder water to the surface. As it wobbles higher and lower it could be the reason for the wild temperature swings. It seems to be only this one area that has the problem. 44018, 44008 and 44011.

Look at this SST Anomalies map dated July 4 04. Notice how far below normal the northern part of the Atlantic is. This area should be warmer because of the ocean current.

Originally posted by UM_Gazz
"...I have been watching the atlantic for a while now and I am really watching the systems now evolving off of the western coast of Africa.. as I believe what happens to these storms once in the Atlantic will show how much the ocean current weakening has changed things.. I believe it is worse than we are being told because the real data does show a very dramaitc change perhaps a few super massive hurricanes, very slow moving and more powerful than we've seen in our lifetimes?

That was posted over three weeks prior to this post. From my observations, the weather systems needed for anticyclone activity off of Africa have only started to energize in the past week or so. Even so, air pressure systems between Africa and the Carribean appear to be too disorganized at the moment to help form or sustain a depression. Of course, this could change at any time.

Theoretically, if there is less of a warm water mass flowing to the north from the Gulf stream, then there would be less energy available to sustain a severe hurricane. So if the Gulf stream does weaken in terms of flow or thermal energy, this would diminish hurricane activity and not worsen it.

Based on my theories and observed solar and hurricane data over the past 255 years, I predict a slightly below average season for Alantic hurricane activity numbering about 6 hurricane class disturbances. NOAA predicts a "50% probability of an above-normal hurricane season".

We'll see who's right, but for a hurricane season that is predicted to be "above normal", we should have seen some action by now. Depressions in the Pacific so far this year have quickly fizzled and Atlantic activity so far is nill.

Outland... I could be wrong on this but if the current isn't carrying warm tropical water north it should eventually start to warm the tropics while cooling the North Atlantic. That is IF moving water north actually helps moderate the tropics as well as the north. Moderating the north is a given. Just the tropics part I am not sure about. Now IF the tropics do heat up you would create a massive war zone between the regions. I don't know if this would necessarily help tropical systems but I would think it would be more likely to help winter storm systems. You would be unloading alot of warm saturated air into a very cold reason. Result? Maybe much stronger noreasters.

Indy... As long as there is a large temperature differential between the poles and the equator, warmer water will flow northward as well as southward to the poles. While some specific current flows may be affected by salinity and other more minor factors, temperature differential is one of the major driving forces. In very simplistic terms: If there is a lack of warm water flowing towards the poles, then the water near the equator isn't warm enough.

Considering that we have gravity, heat from the sun, a turbulent & relatively dense atmosphere (compared to some place like Mars) and planet rotation, it simply is not feasible for tropical waters to remain confined to the tropics to build up an unlimited amount of heat. Why?

As you already know, ocean currents distribute heat from the equator towards the polar regions which help to establish some degree of energy equilibrium. But heat itself isn't the entire driving force of the currents. As equatorial waters gain heat energy from the sun, the water expands.1 At the same time, the heated atmosphere above the equator also expands. This expansion makes the sea level and tropospheric altitude rise.2 Because we have gravity, pressure is exerted on the elevated sea which forces poleward currents. The same happens with the atmosphere creating the circulation system known as the "Hadley cell" (usually accompanied by thunderstorms)3. Lunar tidal forces also have a major impact on circulation patterns. Ocean and atmospheric pressure imbalances will also interact with each other as they try to reach a state of equilibrium.

Since the earth rotates, pole-bound ocean and air currents are subjected to the Coriolis effect starting roughly beyond 5� north or south of the equator. This influence is responsible for atmospheric trade winds and various ocean currents, each with a eastward angular movement toward the poles.

Long ago, it was assumed that the last major ice age affected the southern hemisphere almost as much as it affected the northern hemisphere. Through various proxy accounts, it is now believed that the southern hemisphere was quite warm. A logical conclusion may suggest that south-bound equatorial currents were more prominent since northerly flows might have been reduced by ice blockage. Even in these extreme conditions, it appears that warm tropical waters were not confined to the equator.

The severity and frequency of hurricanes vary due to many factors relating to the differential of energy levels and the efficiency of the available means to distribute (equalize) that energy. However, I do not believe that any means exist that could isolate tropical energy to the level you suggest.

1. The expansion of heated water is mostly due to thermal expansion of dissolved gasses and other content since water itself (if pure) exhibits only negligible expansion unless hot enough to force a vapor state or cold enough to freeze.
2. This thermal expansion of the water and atmosphere at the equator is combined with centrifical forces that force the oceans and atmosphere to bulge at the equator as compared to polar regions. At some point, gravity limits the centrifical forces of the earth's rotation and forces air and ocean currents toward the poles.
3. In most cases, tropical heating will produce huge thunderstorms will cumulous heights reaching up to the tropopause. This causes a cooling effect below by blocking sunlight at the surface and reflecting sunlight at the cloud tops. The storm transfers heat energy from the lower troposphere to the upper regions. Moisture condenses in the colder upper troposphere which causes rain to fall providing additional surface cooling.

[edit on 6-7-2004 by Outland]

I dont believe that expansion of warm water will have any impact on the circulation. The only impact in my opinion that water temperatures will have on the circulation has to do with the weight of the water closer to the freezing mark when the water is at its heaviest point and sinks. Of course salt impacts the weight as well. I also don't think the earths rotation has that great of an impact on the oceans current as well. As you surely know there exists as much current against the rotation of the earth as there is with the rotation. If the current fails or is simply redirected that is enough to cause serious problems. Imagine if the gulf stream headed east from about NC/SC versus hundreds of miles farther north. This will help trap the warm water farther south. It keeps the warmth confined to a smaller area. When you stop moving the warm water out and replacing it with cooler water you allow it to heat more and more. Perhaps this is the exact reason a hurricane was observed in the south atlantic this year. If the current isnt flowing like it used to then the cold water from the Antarctic wouldnt be making its way to the southern tropics to modify the warm water by cooling it. This allows the water to warm and the result being a region able to sustain tropical life. Also this water from the southern tropics would be warmer and what did make its way to the northern hemisphere would already be warmer and little additional heat would be required to sustain a tropical system.

BUT....

This kind of instability causes another problem. Tropical systems like large high pressure systems. If this area was basically squeezed you would be looking at a much smaller region that was favorabe for development. You may also be looking at normal storm tracks that are much farther south than normal which would cause unfavorable conditions as well. As you increase the temperature gradient from north to south you start to build that dynamics in the atmosphere both vertically and horizontally that you need to build massive non tropical storms. Its the same thing that drives the severe weather over the central US.

For an ice age to develop you need the heat in the tropics and the cold to the north. The heat helps drive the evaporation needed to transfer the moisture from the oceans to the land. If you moderate the waters in the tropics you lose that instability needed. You need that war zone to fuel the kind of storms needed to start an ice age. That is where a failing current comes in.

Originally posted by Outland

Indy... As long as there is a large temperature differential between the poles and the equator, warmer water will flow northward as well as southward to the poles. While some specific current flows may be affected by salinity and other more minor factors, temperature differential is one of the major driving forces. In very simplistic terms: If there is a lack of warm water flowing towards the poles, then the water near the equator isn't warm enough.

Outland, let me ask you. what exactly makes it so that there is an exchange between cold water from the north and warm water from the Ecuador? How does the exchange occur and why? Let me give you a hint, salinity.

Originally posted by Muaddib
Outland, let me ask you. what exactly makes it so that there is an exchange between cold water from the north and warm water from the Ecuador? How does the exchange occur and why? Let me give you a hint, salinity.

That is the same as saying that if the oceans had no salinity, there would be no ocean currents... which is absurd.

It doesn't matter if we are talking about salty oceans or fresh water in a lake or a swimming pool. If one region absorbs more heat than another region, currents will flow to distribute that heat.