posted on Jun, 11 2010 @ 03:28 PM
While the exact date may not be predictable, depending on the motives of the attack, the timing is predictable. (Note that this post may be confusing
if you don't live in the US because I'm referencing American holidays and using the date system in the US (MM/DD/YY))
If the purpose of the attack is to kill as many people as possible, which it would be if it's a terrorist act, then the attack will happen on an
otherwise normal day. Terrorists know the normal patterns of life, and aiming to kill as many people as possible, it would not happen on a weekend or
within a week of a holiday. During those times, people are on vacation, and are less likely to be hit because they aren't working. September is the
optimal month for a terror attack because it is about as far from holidays as possible in the year - two months after July 4, but two months before
Thanksgiving and the Christmas holiday season. Also, during July and August, many people take vacations because children are not in school. By
September, people are back from their vacations and children are in school. Also, it would most likely be on a Tuesday, Wednesday, or Thursday because
many people either have or take off on Mondays and Fridays. The 9/11 attacks satisfied all of those conditions - it was early September, a Tuesday
morning. Nowhere near a holiday, and about as normal of a day as possible. (Obviously, other than the attacks.) It would also most likely occur within
normal working hours of 9:00 AM to 5:00 PM, and not within an hour of noon because of lunch. Although the planes hit the WTC a few minutes before 9:00
AM, people were already at work.
Conversely, the opposite would be true if it was just the government trying to make a point by destroying a city. Since I'd assume the government
wouldn't want to kill people, unless it was supposed to look like a terrorist attack. But assuming the motive was to destroy a city, while killing as
few people as possible, the attack would probably occur very close to July 4, Christmas, or some major holiday. This automatically makes the last week
of June a high risk week. It would probably occur on a Saturday or Sunday. It would also occur in the middle of the night, when less people are in the
city. The optimal time for an attack like this is a Saturday night / Sunday morning (although Friday night / Saturday morning or Sunday night / Monday
morning works also.), as close to a holiday as possible without actually being on the day of the holiday.
If it's going to be a terrorist attack (or disguised as one), then it would not be very likely for it to happen on a Friday (although possible).
Since June 23 is a Wednesday, it lies at the center of a spike of likelihood. That week is the last full week of June, and in many places, the last
week of school. This means it is the last chance until September, and most likely it wouldn't occur within a few days of the 9/11 attacks because
there's already a terrorist attack on that day. Any terrorist would want the most possible publicity, and getting two attacks confused with each
other is not very good for publicity. (and the government knows this, so if it is a government plot disguised as a terrorist attack, it wouldn't be
on that date.) After September, it gets close to the Christmas and Thanksgiving holidays again, and also it would have a major, major influence on the
elections if it happens after August. (which depends on the government response. If it's judged well by the people, it would be good for the current
party in power (the Democrats). If it's judged as a failure, it would be good for the Republicans.) All this means that after June, the next chance
for a huge attack is not until late January of 2011 (In fact, the prediction somewhere of 1/17/11 is the beginning of the next probability spike).
This causes there to be a huge spike in the probability of a terrorist attack (or attack disguised as a terrorist attack) starting about a week after
Memorial day, and ending about a week before July 4. June 15, 16, and 17 are high risk days, and so are June 22, 23, and 24. This is true for any
June, but especially an election year. On an off-year, the spike in June is lessened because there is another spike about a week after 9/11. Also, in
any year, there is a spike in late January. (February has President's Day in the middle of it, March or April have Easter (whichever doesn't have
Easter also has a spike), May has Memorial Day.)