War between China and Taiwan

TextAre you serious! you cant be Great Britain is far better than America take Iraq for example how many US soldiers have been killed in Urban warfare?hundreds isn it how many British troops have

You know what I completely forgoten about british soldier been better than US on Urban warfare. I remember having a discussion with my husband on that issue about that, he been a retired marine he told me about the british been the best, because their have been in the middle east longer than US. I knew what I was talking about, we are better at invasion and striking because our technology but the british are better on the ground as ground forces.

Marg we are only better actually better isnt the appropriate word we are well trained only in urban warfare, the US is mighty noone actually knows how China or Tawain would do at war.

Originally posted by marg6043

China's economy is in the road of booming thanks to western investors, and you have a point china is starting to have more need for oil and with such a country as large and populated as theirs the demand is going to be great, but china is poor most of their money goes to the military so one question.

How they are going to pay for oil?

I appreciate the Chinese people in general are poor, but are the government? Particularly now with the economy taking off.

Money can easily be diverted from other sources, such as the military, to pay for oil. If they need it, they will buy it.

Originally posted by drunk

Originally posted by FreeMason
Marg America is the best nation at Urban Warfare arguably.

Are you serious! you cant be Great Britain is far better than America take Iraq for example how many US soldiers have been killed in Urban warfare?hundreds isn it how many British troops have been K.I.A not as many as US

You can't compare the two. The US has SO many more troops in Iraq than GB, you would expect them to have higher KIA rates.

A farer test would be to see what percentage of the total force each country has in Iraq have been KIA.

Good point Clandestine but i have to say the Brits are better trained for guerilla warfare.

I guess with all the predictions about china invading taiwan we can talk an speculate and is not doubt US is superior in technology, and china will get his oil if the goverment is willing to take care of their people, and we can always count on the british to help, but are we able to afford it?

I mean another costly war after Iraq?

2006 may be the year if anything is to happen. Read this article:

www.atimes.com...

I worry about this as I have a vested interest in what's going on over there - my wife is from Taiwan and her entire family still lives there. We were even thinking about moving there later next year.

Something will happen, that is a given. The US has just sent another carrier group to the area, and they will be pulling out of Iraq by 2006.

Whoa!!!!!very good scenario on that link, analysts have everything figure out.

TextWhy is Taiwan worth fighting for?

This part of Taiwan worth for, is the one that brings me back to the fight for oil control and traffic.

Will the goverment in this country be able to sell a another reason to go to war again?

[Edited on 2-6-2004 by marg6043]

Originally posted by drunk

Originally posted by FreeMason
Marg America is the best nation at Urban Warfare arguably.

Are you serious! you cant be Great Britain is far better than America take Iraq for example how many US soldiers have been killed in Urban warfare?hundreds isn it how many British troops have been K.I.A not as many as US

Great Britain has the experience of Northern Ireland conflict thats why they troops are better trained.

They might have less KIA, but they also have LESS TROOPS there. Don't they have like 45k over there and we have like 200K?

i feel confused why u see china deal taiwan as an invasion, i have a post before to declare including usa, most countries (except some not "independent" independent south-america countries addmit taiwan not part of china.
i mean this problem is like after america civil war, the lose side had one state left in califonia ,will america let in declare independence!? will UK let IRA be independent??
i suggested before u better check the cause of taiwan berfore speak here and i suggest it again.

another logic thinking i feel strange is some of (actually many of) u think after china have bigger demand on oil and other resources it will declare war to us, taiwan is just a excuse. from the point of view of chinese media , taiwan is a excuse america use to hold china, most people on this frum knows clearly the usa army is supirior than china, so didn't we don't know that and want to fight with you because we need more resource?

your media said soviet union will declare war with u but did it do it? u media and government said iraq have weapon of mass destruction then.......u media even didn't explain how did kelly died and why.

and why china didn't take taiwan after civil war victory (after wwll)
1. war in vietname( maybe many of u don't know china helped vietnam to fight )

2. conflict with soviet union, hehe, i bet most of u don't know we had conflict with soviet in 1980th.

3.korea war, china also involved in korea war.

4.10 years red revolution( which let china missed the most valuable opportunity to develop after wwll).

5. most important one. we both in taiwan and mainland are chinese and have chinese name, speak chinese, have same festival......how can brothers easily fight( except some who don't think they belong to china).

6. why taiwan people have bad feeling to china--cause media. right, media. both taiwan media and western media all have bias report to china, why did i say so? because i spent 20 years of my life in mainland and now study in a UK university so i can easily feel it

7.at last did the people in china been cheated by their govnment? holly #! we all know things about 6.4 15 years ago; human rights? hehe, see what's ur solider did on earth....we sure have many shame human right record but many i see here are false(fake), why every us president before ellected are anti-chinese but change his attitude toward chia after that? because chia is on the way to make it right.

8. mid control......how many student china sent to other countries every year? how many chinese can u see around you? if government want to cheat or control people it's mission impossible

9.religion freedom. i have many friends believe different kinds of religions and nothing goes wrong in their life. some of you will say FLG and li hongzi, well have you read the book he write in china?? i have , i'd say i saw different version in china and here, hehe.......interesting(he said he is god in chinese version)

again, if you still think taiwan will be invaded by china.....oh, i'm tired of typing()^&^%$%^$$%##@

taobo33, I think I told them Taiwan is a rebel province that no one officialy recognizes as a country about the third or fourth post...Just let them be, they seem to have a need for government consperiaces the government is out to get everyone don't ya know.

Originally posted by taobo33
another logic thinking i feel strange is some of (actually many of) u think after china have bigger demand on oil and other resources it will declare war to us, taiwan is just a excuse.

Just for the record, I didn't actually say China would declare war on the US. I just stated there would be conflict.

I think unless a radical new energy source is harnessed in the next few years, which I highly doubt, conflict is inevitable.

Originally posted by coolpetcat
guys, any one think the war on this 2 will really happen??? cos if China decided to take over TW, it's like a man wants to kill a fly

?? Taiwan has no defence power! and do u guys think US will take a part in the war???

Actually, Taiwan's defense capabilities are considerable, especially considering neither China's navy nor air force are particularly advanced.

zero-snaz wrote:

With an estimated 206 million males 15-49 that would be considered fit for military combat I don't think many countrys would have a very good defence, China and Taiwan is a complicated situation.

However, China would have to get those "soldiers" to Taiwan. Check a map, there is a rather wide strait between China and Taiwan. China doesn't have the amphibious craft to get a significant number of soldiers across. That is one of the reasons China wants the EU to lift its arms embargo. The French are eager to sell them exactly what they need.

As far as my knowledge goes Taiwan is still offically a province of China, though a rebel province. They aren't really independent. They resisted the communism and were aloud to be. Not many countrys organizations recognize their independance. Since they haven't yet I doubt China would start a civil war.

That isn't as staight forward as you think. The Chinese government does in fact believe that Taiwan is one of its provinces. The ROC government in Taiwan officially holds that position as well. However, the ROC government imposed itself on Taiwan in the 1940s. Taiwanese were not permitted to attend the constitutional convention in 1947 in Nanjing. Truman and Chiang created a myth that Taiwan was a part of China, however, if you look at the San Francisco Peace Treaty very carefully, you will find NO MENTION of a transfer of Taiwan from Japan to China.

Is Taiwan recognized by the UN? my last check they wern't.

TEchnically, the UN doesn't recognize states. States are either members or they are not. Are you arguing that non-UN members are not states? That is a difficult argument to hold, as many countries didn't become members immediately upon either its formation or their own independence. Switzerland only became a member a few years ago. Does that mean that they weren't a state prior to their membership? I don't think ANYONE will make that argument.

Toabo33 wrote

3. taiwan government is the result of civil war of China after wwll, i thought u all know it.

Wrong. Taiwan was divided from China in 1895, NOT following World WAr II. Furthermore, at no point in history was Taiwan administered by a Han dynasty. The Qing Dynasty was a Manchu empire. Taiwan was brought into the Manchu Empire FOUR DECADES after China was. Furthermore, Taiwan was only made a province of their empire in 1885. THey then signed it over to the Japanese FOREVER in 1895.

rustiswordz wrote:

On paper our forces were millitarily more powerful, but the sheer weight of numbers overwhelmed our forces and pushed us back to the 58 paralell as it is today.

However, Korea was a land war. A war over Taiwan will be largely naval and in the air. There, technology is a far greater force multiplier than it is on the ground.

Originally posted by coolpetcat
guys, any one think the war on this 2 will really happen??? cos if China decided to take over TW, it's like a man wants to kill a fly

?? Taiwan has no defence power! and do u guys think US will take a part in the war???

Im sure the U.S. will take part in the war. It has already sold wepaons to Taiwan...

China should be taken very seriously as a future military threat to every nation. China is both sneaky and very ambitious. Chinese leaders feel its china's birthrite to rule the world.

China steals everything it can. Why do you think its so cheap to build electronics in China? Because its leaders make it that way so they can reverse engineer everything that is made in its factories. Ever hear the story of the Chrysler executives visiting china to see about opening a auto plant. The executive saw a jeep cherokee and wondered where it came from since they never sold any in china. The chinese official told him it was an almost exact replica, made locally in china. The official thought this would impress the Chrysler exec. Needless to say Chrysler pulled out of the deal. Look at how many chinese students recieve technology degrees from western universities then return home. Look at how many "nuclear secrets" (a term I'm not gonna define) they've been able to take from Los Alamos.

China is very clever about there ambitious strategy. They know they cant defeat the west at the present. They could never win a nuclear exchange let alone Air and Sea battles. China at present is putting billions (if not trillions) into "Post Nuclear Weapons" mainly nano- technology. IF they can beat the west to developing these exotic weapons first then they can send trillions of microscopic invaders to render a nuclear device useless or neutralize and entire countries military without anyone knowing it. Then use their own large populous as a occupational police force, thereby making the chinese people the upper class of a global governement.

Think Im paranoid? Do some internet research on Project 863 which china started in 1986. This high technology initiative was founded so china could overcome the superior technology of the west. I believe it was a high ranking PLA official who said that declaring war before attacking was western idea and china should not follow such outdated declarations.

China is a sleeping giant.

Originally posted by ludahai
Toabo33 wrote

3. taiwan government is the result of civil war of China after wwll, i thought u all know it.

Wrong. Taiwan was divided from China in 1895, NOT following World WAr II. Furthermore, at no point in history was Taiwan administered by a Han dynasty. The Qing Dynasty was a Manchu empire. Taiwan was brought into the Manchu Empire FOUR DECADES after China was. Furthermore, Taiwan was only made a province of their empire in 1885. THey then signed it over to the Japanese FOREVER in 1895.

one thing: after japan was defeated in wwll, in procitan declaration taiwan was given back to chinese government from japan.

Skenzin - nice post.

...Then use their own large populous as a occupational police force, thereby making the chinese people the upper class of a global governement.

This made me think of that movie "Red Dawn" - if this happened where I live in the US, there would be one major Redneck Battle...there's more weapons floating in my region than some military bases...not saying who would win - but it would be a blood bath...

Originally posted by taobo33

Originally posted by ludahai
Toabo33 wrote

3. taiwan government is the result of civil war of China after wwll, i thought u all know it.

Wrong. Taiwan was divided from China in 1895, NOT following World WAr II. Furthermore, at no point in history was Taiwan administered by a Han dynasty. The Qing Dynasty was a Manchu empire. Taiwan was brought into the Manchu Empire FOUR DECADES after China was. Furthermore, Taiwan was only made a province of their empire in 1885. THey then signed it over to the Japanese FOREVER in 1895.

one thing: after japan was defeated in wwll, in procitan declaration taiwan was given back to chinese government from japan.

I think you mean the Potsdam Proclamation. It has no legal authority. It was a wartime promise among a small number of wartime allies. It takes a treaty to transfer territory from one state to another. Therefore, the relevant document here is the SF Peace Treaty, signed between Japan and TWENTY-TWO Allies. According to international law, THIS is the binding legal document. There is no mention of a transfer of territory from Japan to China. It merely states that Japan renounces sovereignty to the island. There is no clause stating that it goes to China. Considering that no Han Chinese government ever ruled Taiwan, there is NO reasonable argument that can be made for its automatic revision to China, especially as there is no such precedent under international law.

The Taiwanese people rightfully deserved the right to a plebiscite to determine their own future. However, the U.S. and Chiang Kaishek colluded to make sure that didn't happen. It is about time to right a historical wrong done to the Taiwanese people. Taiwan is NOT a part of China. Not historically, nor legally!

Hi there. This is my first post here. This thread caught my eye for some reason. Don't ask me why.

Very interesting read.

Unfortunately, the U.S. presently has no reliable predictive model for a large scale war with China. It might be surprising to know that our list of options for a more limited Chinese invasion of Taiwan is only somewhat less tenuous.

As others have pointed out, it's always going to be a game of logistics + technology + subterfuge, vs. subterfuge + sheer numbers.

That's one reason (among many) for the currently ongoing shift in U.S. military forces around the world. We are trying to adjust our military force projection "footprint" to be flexible enough to meet any requirements that may arise. The working theory is that with more flexibility, speed, and situational awareness, we can bring about rapid and overwhelming defeat of enemy forces, before they can direct a fight according to their own terms. In short, a far far more advanced form of Blitz tactics, to use a familiar term. This was put to use, to a limited degree, in Iraq. It was effective on a conventional playing field, but the aftermath is clear for all to see. Of course, in any conflict with China, decisive conventional victory would be the order of the day anyway.

However, no strategy is foolproof, and I think our experience in Iraq (even if the real motives for the war weren't the ones we were led to believe, public acceptance of it still hinged upon intelligence, which none of us can honestly say was top notch) should have taught us that even our so-called "best estimates" are not air-tight. We should assume nothing, and prepare for anything. Sometimes, numbers and high running passions are enough to overcome even the mightiest of juggernauts and the most carefuly crafted of plans.

All of that having been said, I am firmly anti-war. I believe in peace.

One thing we can all agree upon, is the fact that casualties on both sides would be horrific. (Especially in China's case). Let us pray it never comes to pass.

[edit on 8-6-2004 by AceWombat04]

see if this works
www.brookings.edu/dybdocroot/views/ articles/ohanlon/2000fall_IS.pdf