Quake Watch 2010

reply to post by BobAthome


No it does not.

Mr Lee said first:

Around the next two weeks after October 21, 2010 Halemaumau crater on the Big Island of Hawaii's Volcano's National Park will erupt and fill up its crater in November and move Eastward to the the capital city of Hilo with lava headed for Hilo Bay.

Then he said:

I'm predicting an eruption of Halemaumau crater at the Hawaii Volcano's National Park around the end of October the beginning of November. The stating time would be around October 21, 2010 with a swarm of hundreds of swarms of small seismic events at Kilauea crater; Halemaumau on the Big Island of Hawaii.
These events will lead up to an eruption and lava filling up this crater by November 2010 and moving East ward to Hilo the capital city on the Big Island of Hawaii. The lava will make its way to Hilo Bay around December 25, 2010 if not stopped. There is only one way to stop this flow.

Then he said:

On Saturday November 20, 2010 between 4:30 pm to 6:35 pm Halemaumau crater will erupt sending out a massive lava fountain.These will be the signs of the impending eruption:

1. First sign will take place on the Big Island of Hawaii on Wednesday November 17, 2010 a violent storm will hit the regions of Puna and Kau heavy rain fall.

2. The second sign will take place at Kilauea crater Halemaumau section small earthquake swarms will increase as magma moves into position on Thursday November 18, 2010 at noon towards evening.

3. The third sign will be witnesses by Hawaii Volcano's Nation Park rangers and staff on Friday November 19, 2010 six rainbows on the Eastern Rim of Halemaumau Crater.

4. THE EVENT will take place late in the afternoon towards evening as a orange yellow glowing fountain of lava pours forth on Saturday November 20, 2010.

5. Lava will fill up Halemaumau crater by the second week of December 2010 and cross the road eastward towards the Big Island of Hawaii's capital city Hilo.

6. By Christmas time in December 2010 the lava from Halemaumau will be in striking distance of Hilo town. There is only one way to stop the lava at this point which has been done twice before in Hawaii's history.

Edit to add: Missed this one which was posted on several threads

Up date by Mr. Lee

Mauna Loa on Hawaii likely to erupt on its Eastern flank near the Puu Ulaula region on the week of November 20, 2010 and the week of December 20, 2010.

There has been no volcanic eruption, no swarm of earthquakes and no fountain of lava pouring uphill towards the summit before heading for Hilo. His prediction mentioned no tsunami.

We have had just 2 events above 3.0 in the last 7 days

Date/Time UTC,Latitude,Longitude,Magnitude,Depth(Km),Location
2010-11-24T04:51:29.000Z,20.13520,-156.05800,3.3000,0.2000,Maui region. Hawaii
2010-11-24T04:34:09.000Z,20.46670,-156.64570,4.7000,17.7000,Maui region. Hawaii

Dosen't this event give Dr. Lee ??,,,100% hit ,,,on predictability?

(It is Mr Lee, not Dr Lee by the way)

In short NO WAY JOSE. Not even close.

Don't forget that those two quakes are not even in the area he specified either. That is not even 0% let alone 100%

Sort of looks like business as usual:


Since Mr Lee is visiting us every day perhaps he would care to comment on this epic failure?

:0 Puter man i luv yur wrk. I really do,, ,,calm down,, take a breath,, ur hyperventilating agin ,, i just asked,,

Where did that Arkansas earthquake go? I'm sure I saw one on the North American USGS map a couple hours ago... big blue square, said it was a 4.6 I think? Now I see it isn't there, was I imagining it?

EDIT: I think it was this Oklahoma one (my bad, I thought Arkansas, LOL) From a previous post:

OKLAHOMA

Magnitude
4.2
Date-Time
Wednesday, November 24, 2010 at 22:48:30 UTC
Wednesday, November 24, 2010 at 04:48:30 PM at epicenter
Location
35.627°N, 97.246°W
Depth
7.8 km (4.8 miles)
Region
OKLAHOMA
Distances
30 km (20 miles) NE of OKLAHOMA CITY, Oklahoma
30 km (20 miles) SSE of Guthrie, Oklahoma
45 km (25 miles) NW of Shawnee, Oklahoma
50 km (30 miles) NNE of Norman, Oklahoma
Location Uncertainty
horizontal +/- 13.3 km (8.3 miles); depth +/- 2.1 km (1.3 miles)
Parameters
NST= 66, Nph= 70, Dmin=11.1 km, Rmss=1.11 sec, Gp= 50°,
M-type="Nuttli" surface wave magnitude (mbLg), Version=7
Source
USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
Event ID
usc0000fsf

*********************************************

Magnitude
3.2
Date-Time
Wednesday, November 24, 2010 at 23:45:13 UTC
Wednesday, November 24, 2010 at 05:45:13 PM at epicenter
Location
35.593°N, 97.240°W
Depth
4.9 km (3.0 miles) set by location program
Region
OKLAHOMA
Distances
6 km (4 miles) NE (56°) from Jones, OK
9 km (5 miles) SSW (210°) from Luther, OK
11 km (7 miles) SE (136°) from Arcadia, OK
29 km (18 miles) ENE (65°) from Oklahoma City, OK
313 km (195 miles) N (352°) from Dallas, TX
Location Uncertainty
horizontal +/- 6 km (3.7 miles); depth fixed by location program
Parameters
NST= 17, Nph= 19, Dmin=13.4 km, Rmss=1.29 sec, Gp=108°,
M-type="Nuttli" surface wave magnitude (mbLg), Version=7
Source
USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
Event ID
usc0000ftu
edit on 24-11-2010 by berkeleygal because: (no reason given)

Anyhoo, I still don't see it there now...

reply to post by Vexatious Vex


Looks like it was downgraded to a 3.9. Nevermind then...

was downgraded


3.2 2010/11/24 23:45:13 35.593 -97.240 4.9 6 km ( 3 mi) NE of Jones, OK
3.9 2010/11/24 22:48:29 35.634 -97.257 5.0 7 km ( 4 mi) WSW of Luther, OK

earthquake.usgs.gov...

reply to post by berkeleygal


Can't be getting the natives worried! A 4.2, oh it's OK it's only a 3.9

@BobAthome. Me, hyperventilating? Never. I just like to give all the information where I can!

reply to post by PuterMan

Thursday 25th November 2010 Kilauea Volcano, Hawaii Kilauea volcano, Hawaii continues to erupt lava from two locations. On the east rift zone, lava is erupting from TEB vent 1 km NE of Pu'u O'o crater, and flows through tubes to the ocean at Puhi-o-Kalaikini entry southwest of Kalapana Gardens. Since Saturday lava flows have advanced eastwards and have reached highway 130 at an area that was crossed by lava flows earlier in the year. At the summit, a lava pond is located in a vent of Halemaumau crater.

www.volcanolive.com...

Maybe Lee is a little right, tho his prediction days are off. Something is happening there tho.

I think muzzy was commenting on "Nuttli" surface waves.

This refers to Dr Otto W. Nuttli. You get quite a lot of stuff if you Google him.

If you have an interest in New Madrid and have several hours to spare ( ) then you might find this paper on THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARTHQUAKES OF 1811 AND 1812: INTENSITIES, GROUND MOTION AND MAGNITUDES of interest.

I am in the process of creating a PDF from it so I will let you know when it is done if you would like it.

I just hit the post button when a 3.5 in Iceland flashed up on my pop-up screen. It has not hit eQuake yet.

Magnitude ML 3.5
Region ICELAND
Date time 2010-11-25 10:34:30.0 UTC
Location 64.51 N ; 17.58 W
Depth 1 km
Distances 213 km E Reykjavík (pop 113,906 ; local time 10:34:30.0 2010-11-25)
134 km S Akureyri (pop 16,563 ; local time 10:34:30.0 2010-11-25)
117 km W Höfn (pop 1,695 ; local time 10:34:30.0 2010-11-25)

EMSC

reply to post by berkeleygal


Bear in mind that Kilauea is considered to be in a permanent state of eruption. There is always something happening.

This does not detract from the fact that his stated swarm and fountains of lava did not happen at the times given or in the manner described.

I have no problem if someone says I believe that an eruption is pending at XYZ. I have a BIG problem with someone saying XYZ is going to erupt on the xx of xxx and states that there will be a swarm of earthquakes and then nothing happens. There is a big difference between those two statements.

Let us assume for one minute that Mr Lee's predictions were acted upon and Hilo was evacuated. What then?

You cannot and should not be specific about the where and when of any such happening unless there is already evidence and the event is just a matter of time. Then you can say, this swarm and deformation is indicating the this volcano is going to blow within a few hours based n previous history.

If Mr Lee wants to word his predictions in that manner them I don't have a problem with them.

Edit: By the way that 'something' has been happening since 2005 and got a bit more intense in 2009. Hilo by the way is at 31 deg from Kilauea and unless I am mistaken (and I asked Mr Lee to verify this which he has not bothered to do) the side of the volcano pointing at Hilo is high enough that lava would flow ESE or possibly SW before if got to heading for Hilo.

4.2 2010/11/26 13:27:41 28.113 52.511 10.1 SOUTHERN IRAN
5.6 2010/11/26 12:33:43 28.106 52.535 10.1 SOUTHERN IRAN

reply to post by Anmarie96


Magnitude ML:5.4
Date & Time (UTC) 2010/11/26 12:33:44.5
Date & Time (Local) 1389/09/05 16:03:44.5
Location Lat: 28.26 Lon: 52.62
Region Fars Province
Nearest Cities


12 km South of Hengam, Fars Province
30 km North-West of Garmesht, Fars Province
34 km North-East of Dolatabad, Fars Province
39 km South-East of Dahrom, Fars Province
46 km South-West of Qir va Karzin, Fars Province
Depth 9.40 km
Agency IIEES
1) QIR_F (Length: 130 km) , Distance to epicenter: 24 km
2) SABZ_PUSHAN_F_Z1 (Length: 69 km) , Distance to epicenter: 51 km
3) SABZ_PUSHAN_F_Z2 (Length: 24 km) , Distance to epicenter: 61 km
Number of Phases 7
RMS 0.1
Number of Stations 6
Error in Latitude 5.5 km
Error in Longitude 2.5 km
Error in Depth 3.6 km

What this does not say is this is only 100 miles from Bushehr. Not good near a nuke powerstation!

5.2 2010/11/26 22:12:28 -2.661 129.203 31.1 SERAM, INDONESIA
4.7 2010/11/26 20:09:24 -3.436 130.995 33.8 SERAM, INDONESIA
4.4 2010/11/26 20:04:28 -3.563 131.179 34.8 CERAM SEA, INDONESIA
5.7 2010/11/26 17:36:09 -3.415 131.016 3.2 CERAM SEA, INDONESIA
4.7 2010/11/26 05:55:37 -6.408 130.191 137.7 BANDA SEA
5.0 2010/11/24 08:38:28 -6.166 130.636 125.4 BANDA SEA

got a little action going on here

earthquake.usgs.gov...

reply to post by PuterMan


Always interested in the New Madrid, thanks for link and looking forward to your PDF.

Had another biggish aftershock earlier today - 4.4 nr Darfield

A sharp reminder.. Mr E hasn't left us yet...

Universal Time November 26 2010 at 22:04
NZ Daylight Time Saturday, November 27 2010 at 11:04 am
Latitude, Longitude 43.55°S, 172.08°E
Focal Depth 15 km
Richter magnitude 4.4
Region Canterbury
Location

* 10 km south of Darfield
* 10 km south-east of Coalgate
* 40 km west of Christchurch

This was in the paper, Commercial Appeal, this morning regarding the Arkansas tremors. I think several of us were thinking that it was the drilling. Regardless, the area is getting more focus and research.

While essentially ruling out production wells as a cause of the quakes, Shane Khoury, deputy director and general counsel of the Arkansas Oil and Gas Commission, said there is "some circumstantial evidence" that the injection wells might be inducing or enhancing temblors.

As a result, Khoury said, the staff plans to ask the commission, at its Dec. 7 meeting, to approve a moratorium on any further injection wells in the Guy area.

Even if the disposal operations are causing the quakes, Horton said, "it's a very difficult thing to prove."

Either way, the research into the swarm could open up new insights into how quakes occur in the middle of continental plate, he said. That could have implications for understanding the New Madrid Fault Zone, which can produce large quakes near Memphis.

Here's the link to the article Earthquakes rattle Arkansas town: residents blame gas drilling rigs

reply to post by sheeplemama_awakening


Not only were some of us thinking this, some of us are absolutely certain. We have now had the state geologists nay-saying it and now.................

Shane Khoury, deputy director and general counsel of the Arkansas Oil and Gas Commission.........and we are expected to believe him???

That is like the US Gubbermint saying that there is no 9/11 conspiracy.

reply to post by PuterMan

I missed the waveform on LISS for that one, was it a biggie? (like the Irian Jaya 5.7 just after)
I stsrted downloading the graph from IEESS but it was a Zip file and I'm on DialUp for a few days and I gave up after 60 seconds waiting.

This could be interesting, the 2nd one was right under Kizimen stratovolcano

M 4.9, KAMCHATKA PENINSULA, RUSSIA
November 27, 2010 18:56:45 UTC
November 28, 2010 06:56:45 local time at epicenter
Lat: 55.2703
Lon: 160.336
Depth: 5.6 km (3.5 mi)

M 5.2, KAMCHATKA PENINSULA, RUSSIA
November 27, 2010 19:29:36 UTC
November 28, 2010 07:29:36 local time at epicenter
Lat: 55.1395
Lon: 160.3518
Depth: 1 km (0.6 mi)

edit: Oh its already erupting This from John Seach's site
Saturday 27th November 2010
Kizimen Volcano, Kamchatka
Several new fumaroles were formed at Kizimen volcano, Kamchatka in middle of November 2010. During the last week, seismic activity was above background levels. A helicopter flight around the volcano on 20th November showed several new fumaroles at summit and south-western flank of the volcano. Activity of an old fumarole "Revuschaya" (which is known since 1960) at the north-eastern volcanic flank decreased. A small amount of ash was visible on south-western flank of the volcano. On 17th November an ash plume rose to an altitude of 3 km. Kizimen volcano is at level YELLOW alert.

This is what the Russian Academy of Science (RAS) has to say;
Quake happened 27-Nov-2010 19:29:36.1 in region Kamchatka Peninsula, Russia lat: 55.19 lon: 160.25 mb: 5.3/27
www.ceme.gsras.ru...

reply to post by muzzy


Sorry muzzy I never looked at LISS. I tend not to unless the crazies are abroad. I can never match the perfect waveforms on LISS with anything that looks anything like them using IRSI.

I have been trying to get the waveforms from Iran using their seisan system but no luck so far. Can't get their software or files to download.

And another for Indonesia

I have had quite a few today.


Magnitude
5.2
Date-Time
• Saturday, November 27, 2010 at 20:48:37 UTC
• Sunday, November 28, 2010 at 04:48:37 AM at epicenter
• Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones

Location
3.812°N, 127.859°E
Depth
111.3 km (69.2 miles)
Region
KEPULAUAN TALAUD, INDONESIA
Distances
340 km (210 miles) N of Ternate, Moluccas, Indonesia
390 km (245 miles) SE of General Santos, Mindanao, Philippines
1410 km (880 miles) SSE of MANILA, Philippines
2580 km (1600 miles) ENE of JAKARTA, Java, Indonesia
Location Uncertainty
horizontal +/- 11.6 km (7.2 miles); depth +/- 13.4 km (8.3 miles)
Parameters
NST= 61, Nph= 71, Dmin=340.6 km, Rmss=1.15 sec, Gp= 36°,
M-type=body wave magnitude (Mb), Version=5
Source
• USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
Event ID
usc0000gfa