Quake Watch 2010

Two of them fairly close together chronologically. The smaller one in Argentina is fairly deep at 110 miles.

earthquake.usgs.gov...


2010 August 04 04:46:16 UTC
DetailsMapsEarthquake Details
This event has been reviewed by a seismologist.
Magnitude 6.1 (Preliminary magnitude — update expected within 15 minutes)
Date-Time Wednesday, August 04, 2010 at 04:46:16 UTC
Wednesday, August 04, 2010 at 04:46:16 PM at epicenter

Location 27.040°S, 176.280°W
Depth 10 km (6.2 miles) set by location program
Region KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION
Distances 291 km (181 miles) NNE (33°) from Raoul Island, Kermadec Islands
663 km (412 miles) S (189°) from NUKU'ALOFA, Tonga
2937 km (1825 miles) WSW (244°) from PAPEETE, Tahiti, French Polynesia

Location Uncertainty Error estimate not available
Parameters NST= 10, Nph= 10, Dmin=0 km, Rmss=1.28 sec, Gp=140°,
M-type="moment" magnitude from initial P wave (tsuboi method) (Mi/Mwp), Version=A
Source NOAA Pacific Tsunami Warning Center

Event ID pt10216000

and also:

earthquake.usgs.gov...

Earthquake Details
This event has been reviewed by a seismologist.
Magnitude 5.3
Date-Time Wednesday, August 04, 2010 at 04:24:36 UTC
Wednesday, August 04, 2010 at 01:24:36 AM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones

Location 23.838°S, 66.522°W
Depth 177.3 km (110.2 miles)
Region JUJUY, ARGENTINA
Distances 45 km (30 miles) NNW of San Antonio de los Cobres, Salta, Arg.
130 km (80 miles) WNW of San Salvador de Jujuy, Jujuy, Argentina
150 km (95 miles) SW of Abra Pampa, Jujuy, Argentina
1410 km (880 miles) NW of BUENOS AIRES, D.F., Argentina

Location Uncertainty horizontal +/- 12.7 km (7.9 miles); depth +/- 9.2 km (5.7 miles)
Parameters NST=124, Nph=125, Dmin=279.4 km, Rmss=0.66 sec, Gp= 83°,
M-type=body wave magnitude (Mb), Version=6
Source USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)


Event ID us2010znak

reply to post by muzzy


FWIW:

I'm the 'publisher' of FREEREPUBLIC.COM's own

webbot jockey.

He doesn't want bogged down with dealing with folks asking him questions directly etc.

Anyway--a week or so ago . . . his own webbot software indicated a looming big quake or two.

He's working on his PhD in the field--due to defend the dissertation in Sept.

I asked him what his software was telling him currently about the quake potential.

Here's his response:

-------------------

The indicators are still present, and other date indicators are shortening, although like I’ve said, my time calculations for target dates are terrible.

However, the values are now heavier and practically immediate (any time this week I’d say) for at least 1 of them.

This fits with my random number cohesion too. It’s either an 9.0 or larger and basically takes out a city, or it might be less severe but affects a lot of people by taking out infrastructure and transport over a large area. Lots of “interruption of life-as-usual” and “casualties” and “collapse”.

We’ll see.

--------------------

From post 527 at this link:

www.freerepublic.com...

He notes that his buddy Cliff High--originator of the webbot software . . . admits that Cliff's own biases at one or two interpretation stages can distort the data results a lot--yielding a significant error factor.

And, as another project indicates with randomn number anomalies . . . my FR Buddy's current data runs are showing such anomalies as well.

AS he notes, we shall see--evidently this week, if the software is going to be accurate about a huge quake or two this week.

Another friend . . . more of a Christian prophetic type has issued a similar alert asserting that California is in the quake crossfire big time on the near horizon. No idea what that timeline means.

We shall see.

Magnitude 5.9 SOUTH OF THE FIJI ISLANDS

Date-Time

* Wednesday, August 04, 2010 at 04:46:21 UTC
* Wednesday, August 04, 2010 at 04:46:21 PM at epicenter
* Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones

Location 26.946°S, 177.140°W
Depth 23.9 km (14.9 miles)
Region SOUTH OF THE FIJI ISLANDS

Distances 270 km (165 miles) NNE of Raoul Island, Kermadec Islands
525 km (325 miles) NNE of L'Esperance Rock, Kermadec Islands
1335 km (830 miles) NE of Auckland, New Zealand
1755 km (1090 miles) NNE of WELLINGTON, New Zealand

earthquake.usgs.gov...

6.4 2010/08/04 07:15:33 -5.521 146.793 213.6 EASTERN NEW GUINEA REG, PAPUA NEW GUINEA
6.4 2010/08/04 07:15:33 -5.521 146.793 213.6 EASTERN NEW GUINEA REG, PAPUA NEW GUINEA
4.8 2010/08/04 06:34:39 -5.047 146.431 15.6 EASTERN NEW GUINEA REG, PAPUA NEW GUINEA

earthquake.usgs.gov...
earthquake.usgs.gov...
earthquake.usgs.gov...

wow ^^

Revised - just one 6.4 ...


MAP 6.4 2010/08/04 07:15:33 -5.521 146.793 213.6 EASTERN NEW GUINEA REG, PAPUA NEW GUINEA

MAP 4.8 2010/08/04 06:34:39 -5.047 146.431 15.6 EASTERN NEW GUINEA REG, PAPUA NEW GUINEA

Appears to be a lot more action spreading up the coast in to northern areas of California... recently:

MAP 3.4 2010/08/04 09:37:15 40.672 -125.593 5.0 OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA

MAP 2.5 2010/08/04 08:40:46 38.812 -122.824 2.6 NORTHERN CALIFORNIA

MAP 2.8 2010/08/04 03:08:50 38.385 -121.518 26.3 NORTHERN CALIFORNIA

MAP 3.1 2010/08/04 02:47:41 39.192 -120.457 0.0 NORTHERN CALIFORNIA

Activity now in Alaska. 6.1.

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/9306ced71f3e.gif[/atsimg]

YS reaction: www.isthisthingon.org...

high sunactivity www.swpc.noaa.gov... and 2 Magnitude 6+ Quakes.

reply to post by lasertaglover


Revised up to 6.3now

And today's head bangers so far are:

Date/Time UTC,Latitude,Longitude,Magnitude,Depth(Km),Location
04/08/2010 12:58:24,51.4259,-178.6073,6.30,27.00,Andreanof Islands
04/08/2010 10:07:01,-21.0927,-173.7189,5.30,34.90,Tonga
04/08/2010 07:15:33,-5.5211,146.7935,6.40,213.60,eastern New Guinea region. Papua New Guinea
04/08/2010 04:46:21,-26.9464,-177.1403,5.90,23.90,south of the Fiji Islands
04/08/2010 04:24:36,-23.8379,-66.5222,5.30,177.30,Jujuy. Argentina
04/08/2010 00:43:04,6.6898,126.9682,5.10,66.40,Mindanao. Philippines

We should have time to squeeze in a couple more 5+, one more 6+ and maybe a 7 for good measure!

reply to post by BO XIAN


Can we just get something quite clear? A web-bot trawls the web looking for keywords. From those keywords it makes assumptions based on frequency etc.

ALL that a web-bot can do is report on feelings out on the web. It is not possible for a web-bot to accurately predict ANY earthquake at all, only the fact that people are talking about a large one, and since people are always talking about a large one (especially on the thread that got deleted ) you are always going to get web-bots predicting earthquakes, and probably most often California since that is the area that most people on the accessible USA web talk about.

You are probably more likely to get an accurate prediction from a divinely inspired hermit, and the chances of that being right are about 1%

It is perfectly possible to create a web-bot prediction by seeding the net with many conversations about 10+ Mag quakes for example.

A vague prediction of a 'big' quake, which is all you get from web-bots and mystics is absolutely useless.

If, for example, Yellowstone were to blow tomorrow, the web-bot would not have predicted it because no one is talking on the web about that possibility. A web-bot is NOT a prediction system, it is a reporting tool.

[Edit]Re-reading your post...

However, the values are now heavier and practically immediate (any time this week I’d say) for at least 1 of them.

This fits with my random number cohesion too. It’s either an 9.0 or larger and basically takes out a city, or it might be less severe but affects a lot of people by taking out infrastructure and transport over a large area. Lots of “interruption of life-as-usual” and “casualties” and “collapse”.

And where is this wondrous event supposed to take place? A 9 or larger? Oh come on, they are almost as rare as hens teeth.

If there is a 9.0 anywhere in the world in the next 14 days it will not be because the web-bot predicted it, and it is not going to happen anyway. I love making these statements!!! (One day I will be wrong )

Fancy a bit of Earthquake Insurance - there are some stats in there as well. Perhaps web-bot followers should be seriously considering this. William Hill will probably take a bet as well. You could get some very good odds.

Better still you could place a bet on a 9.0 on-line right here. The trouble is that this is a 2007 site so I guess they were talking hard about it then and guess what? It didn't happen. If web-bot followers have the courage of their convictions they will find somewhere current where they can place a bet, and the fact that the betting is changing will probably drive up the predictions!!! Cause and effect eh? I wonder how much money that site made out of suckers - Mm maybe I should start one!

[edit on 4/8/2010 by PuterMan]

reply to post by PuterMan


Your perspective is certainly quite reasonable.

However, as my dissertation Chairman remarked . . .

LIFE IS SO COMPLEX, JUST ABOUT ANY COCK-A-MAY-ME EXPLANATION WILL DO.

I disagree with that theologically but he had a point.

I just collect puzzle pieces and enjoy discussing them with fair-minded folks.

Sometimes things look more interesting and surprising than others.

I do think . . . that by the time things get off and running in this era in

REALLLLLLLLLLLLLY

interesting ways, there may not be much time left for prep or contemplation or much of anything else very sane.

This one has been revised again and is now up to a 6.4 - but it is still a preliminary report. I question Their uncertainty with this quake . Ut ho "it sounds as if the world is coming to an end " - - - I don't think I ever stated such a thing - and I certainly don't think so. But onto the next subject - Alaska been being hit pretty hard as of late and usually triggers another larger one somewhere else.

== PRELIMINARY EARTHQUAKE REPORT ==

***This event has been revised.


Region: ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS.
Geographic coordinates: 51.426N, 178.607W
Magnitude: 6.4 Mw
Depth: 27 km
Universal Time (UTC): 4 Aug 2010 12:58:24
Time near the Epicenter: 4 Aug 2010 03:58:24
Local standard time in your area: 4 Aug 2010 07:58:24

Location with respect to nearby cities:
145 km (90 miles) WSW (250 degrees) of Adak, AK
314 km (195 miles) WSW (256 degrees) of Atka, AK
2059 km (1280 miles) WSW (251 degrees) of Anchorage, AK


ADDITIONAL EARTHQUAKE PARAMETERS
________________________________
event ID : US 2010znbf

And how about NV - been busy lately too :-)

Source

3.6 2010/08/04 11:57:53 36.505N 115.208W 6.0 31 km (19 mi) N of North Las Vegas, NV
2.3 2010/08/04 10:46:54 36.133N 114.575W 6.0 31 km (19 mi) SSW of Stewarts Point, NV


[edit on 4-8-2010 by Anmarie96]

[edit on 4-8-2010 by Anmarie96]

reply to post by Anmarie96


If it make you feel more comfortable the Russians had it as a 6.4mb right from the start
2010-08-04 12:58:25.6, 51.44, -178.47, 40, 6.4mb/25stations, Andreanof Islands, Aleutian Is
Russian Academy of Science phase data
They don't have Mw so maybe thats where the confusion is coming from.

I wonder if they compare notes?

Originally posted by BO XIAN
reply to post by PuterMan

 

I do think . . . that by the time things get off and running in this era in

REALLLLLLLLLLLLLY

interesting ways, there may not be much time left for prep or contemplation or much of anything else very sane.

I would have to agree with you there. I think however that if there was very little time left then sane is probably not the best mode. If you gotta go you may as well go doing something really insane!!

I fancy stealing acquiring an unwanted helicopter and flying over Iceland. I reckon by the time I get there I should just about have mastered the controls. :bnghd:

event has been reviewed by a seismologist.
Magnitude 7.0 (Preliminary magnitude — update expected within 15 minutes)
Date-Time Wednesday, August 04, 2010 at 22:01:47 UTC
Thursday, August 05, 2010 at 08:01:47 AM at epicenter

Location 6.000°S, 150.800°E
Depth 81 km (50.3 miles) set by location program
Region NEW BRITAIN REGION, PAPUA NEW GUINEA
Distances 142 km (88 miles) E (80°) from Kandrian, New Britain, PNG
251 km (156 miles) SW (218°) from Rabaul, New Britain, PNG
382 km (237 miles) S (180°) from Kavieng, New Ireland, PNG
428 km (266 miles) E (79°) from Lae, New Guinea, PNG
553 km (344 miles) NE (46°) from PORT MORESBY, Papua New Guinea

Location Uncertainty Error estimate not available
Parameters NST= 14, Nph= 14, Dmin=245.7 km, Rmss=1.33 sec, Gp= 61°,
M-type="moment" magnitude from initial P wave (tsuboi method) (Mi/Mwp), Version=1
Source West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning Center/NOAA/NWS

Event ID at00095930

earthquake.usgs.gov...

Here's the mag 7 quake


Magnitude 7.0 - NEW BRITAIN REGION, PAPUA NEW GUINEA
2010 August 04 22:01:45 UTC


Click here for updated map.

Originally posted by PuterMan
And today's head bangers so far are:

Date/Time UTC,Latitude,Longitude,Magnitude,Depth(Km),Location
04/08/2010 12:58:24,51.4259,-178.6073,6.30,27.00,Andreanof Islands
04/08/2010 10:07:01,-21.0927,-173.7189,5.30,34.90,Tonga
04/08/2010 07:15:33,-5.5211,146.7935,6.40,213.60,eastern New Guinea region. Papua New Guinea
04/08/2010 04:46:21,-26.9464,-177.1403,5.90,23.90,south of the Fiji Islands
04/08/2010 04:24:36,-23.8379,-66.5222,5.30,177.30,Jujuy. Argentina
04/08/2010 00:43:04,6.6898,126.9682,5.10,66.40,Mindanao. Philippines

We should have time to squeeze in a couple more 5+, one more 6+ and maybe a 7 for good measure!

you know my friend your getting better and better at prediction these things . LMAO

Originally posted by alysha.angel

Originally posted by PuterMan
And today's head bangers so far are:

Date/Time UTC,Latitude,Longitude,Magnitude,Depth(Km),Location
04/08/2010 12:58:24,51.4259,-178.6073,6.30,27.00,Andreanof Islands
04/08/2010 10:07:01,-21.0927,-173.7189,5.30,34.90,Tonga
04/08/2010 07:15:33,-5.5211,146.7935,6.40,213.60,eastern New Guinea region. Papua New Guinea
04/08/2010 04:46:21,-26.9464,-177.1403,5.90,23.90,south of the Fiji Islands
04/08/2010 04:24:36,-23.8379,-66.5222,5.30,177.30,Jujuy. Argentina
04/08/2010 00:43:04,6.6898,126.9682,5.10,66.40,Mindanao. Philippines

We should have time to squeeze in a couple more 5+, one more 6+ and maybe a 7 for good measure!

you know my friend your getting better and better at prediction these things . LMAO

hahahahhahahahahahahhahahah!!!! sorry

How the heck do they get 7.0Mw from what is basically a 6.0mb quake

EMSC is 6.8Mw using the same source of data (NEIC)
Geofon is 6.7 Unk Mag
on the other hand
Aussie gets 7.1 Unk Mag

the Russians must have gone to bed, nothing on yet

[edit on 4-8-2010 by muzzy]