Does probability really exist?

reply to post by Wertdagf

You can develope a machine to flip a coin in a controlled enviroment..... what you have just said is extremely ignorant. The variables in casino are kept OUT of yoru controll fo ra a good reason.... they want you to lose. As long as you are kept stupid and ignorant probabilitys still have the ILLUSION of existing.

Is that intended as a troll post?

Probability theory is the study of chances. Do you or do you not agree that the coin tosses have 50/50 chance of heads or tails landing?

Now, does it matter if you knew the outcomes? Will that alter the probability?

Certainly if you toss a coin in a controlled environment and it always result in 100% chance of head or tail landing. But what does it have to do with probability?

Casino keep the variables out of your control to PREVENT CHEATING. To prevent the probability from tipping in player's favor.

Ignorant? My butt.

reply to post by Wertdagf

They only appear non deterministic because your ignorant to the processes within their minds. We are now breaking down this barrier of ignonrance.

Are you saying that we can control the environment such as say air?

Them being deterministic HAS NOTHING TO DO with probability!!!!

reply to post by Deaf Alien


Seemed like a logical post to me

Then again some people cant spell or type that well like myself but can run rings around people who can when it comes to math "not saying any names" lol ;D



anyyways back on topic : Its real its needed and has been tested and it comes from logic

no point in going over it as the OP has no clue anyway.

reply to post by 13579


Thanks.

The study of probability comes from experience and logic as you said.

Assuming that the coin or die is perfect, i.e. no "weight" on any of the sides, it will have always have the same probability. With any external forces such as air, gravity, etc., it will still average out in the long run.

[edit on 15-12-2009 by Deaf Alien]

I say probability exists but only as a measure of our own ignorance and inability to conceive of how a chain reaction of events will finally manifest into reality. We can only guess among a number of "possible" outcomes, which are only as "possible" as our ignorance allows.

reply to post by bsbray11

I say probability exists but only as a measure of our own ignorance and inability to conceive of how a chain reaction of events will finally manifest into reality. We can only guess among a number of "possible" outcomes, which are only as "possible" as our ignorance allows.

Yeah. But like I said, even if we knew all the outcomes, the probability will ALWAYS stay the same. See?

Rolling a die will ALWAYS result in 1 in 6 chance whether or not you knew all the forces involved.

Foreknowledge and determinism have NOTHING to do with probability.

reply to post by Deaf Alien

Rolling a die will ALWAYS result in 1 in 6 chance whether or not you knew all the forces involved.

I have to disagree as the minute that dice is sent rolling across that table, it's side of landing will be determined by other variables. Such as the bumpiness of the table, angle of throw, force of throw. All those variables taken into account allow for only one determined side, not a 1 to 6 chance.

reply to post by sirnex


Ok run an experiment. Throw it 1000 or more times. Throw it in a windy days. On the most bumpy table. Whatever.

Then tell me what the probability is.

I do not understand the disagreement?

A perfect die (ie no weighted sides, smooth, etc) has 6 sides. Logic says that it will land on any of those 6 sides. HENCE 1 in 6 chance. Unless it lands on the corner and stand still. That would be astronomical!

Originally posted by Deaf Alien
reply to post by sirnex

 

Ok run an experiment. Throw it 1000 or more times. Throw it in a windy days. On the most bumpy table. Whatever.

Then tell me what the probability is.

I do not understand the disagreement?

A perfect die (ie no weighted sides, smooth, etc) has 6 sides. Logic says that it will land on any of those 6 sides. HENCE 1 in 6 chance. Unless it lands on the corner and stand still. That would be astronomical!

Only by ignoring all extant variables that are not one of the six sides. If I throw the die with a moderate force at a particular angle and it hits a rough spot on the table, those variables will determine a side, not a probable side but a determined side.

If I throw the die forcefully up in the air and it lands on a smooth spot, those variables will create a different determined outcome of which side the die will land on.

I don't understand how ignoring variables creates probability when it's those variables that determine which side will be landed. Where does the probability arise, before the die is thrown or after it is thrown?

reply to post by sirnex


If you are in a vacuum with no external forces disturbing the rolling of the die, then yeah if you apply the right force, the die will always end up on the same side.

I do understand what you mean though. You are talking about determinism. Let's not even mention quantum mechanics. That's where things get complicated.

Apply the right force, and if you could control the environment, then the die will most likely lay on the same side. But that is not what probability is all about.

I don't understand how ignoring variables creates probability when it's those variables that determine which side will be landed. Where does the probability arise, before the die is thrown or after it is thrown?

That's a simple question.

Like I said, a die have 6 sides. It got to lay on one of those sides. Correct? If the environment and the same forces are present, then yes it will lay on the same side every time.

However with the environment and forces varying, it will always average out to be 1 in 6 chance.

If you are talking about ONE toss, then yes, those forces do influence the die and that's what determine where the die will lay.

However, IN THE LONG RUN, it will be exactly 1 in 6 chance.

reply to post by Deaf Alien


yep very ture

you see i dont think the op understand we crated the basis for the coin or die to begin with.

but yea you are correct and you was no way close to being a troll mate.

reply to post by sirnex


NO !!!

I have to disagree as the minute that dice is sent rolling across that table, it's side of landing will be determined by other variables

are you always this stubbon? I and others have told you it has NOTING to with variables!!!

it has EVERYTHING TO DO WITH LOGIC..

You said "so basicaly you remove all varibles" and just think 2 sides of the coin?

YES its really that simple?

here is your argument....

probability is confusing because 1 no one factors in wind.. or what ever out side thing like force

BUT you are missing the POINT.. of what probability IS...

ITS MATHS!!

you use a PC FFS have you NO clue what so ever???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????

wtf do you think LOGIC IS?? do you not PLAY GAMES?? EVER?

ever played SNAP? or solitare? or any LOGIC BASED GAME?

you sound more nuts than me!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Im sick of your IGNORANCE.. I REALLY AM and to INSULT YOU how about i TEACH YOU MATH.. i wont charge you...

www.cyberbee.com...

READ IT or at least get EDUCATED and stop being so idiotic

[edit on 15-12-2009 by 13579]

Originally posted by Deaf Alien
Rolling a die will ALWAYS result in 1 in 6 chance whether or not you knew all the forces involved.

Foreknowledge and determinism have NOTHING to do with probability.

You are going to have to come up with a better example than that, because you COULD calculate how a die will land if you knew every significant force involved at every point between its being thrown and it coming to rest. We just don't take measurements of this every time we throw dice.

reply to post by bsbray11

You are going to have to come up with a better example than that, because you COULD calculate how a die will land if you knew every significant force involved at every point between its being thrown and it coming to rest. We just don't take measurements of this every time we throw dice.

Fine. Let's take into calculation EVERY force that is involved in the tossing of the die. You KNOW what side it will land on.

Ok now roll the die maybe 1000 times. Remember you have the foreknowledge of the outcomes.

Now, after 1000 or more rolls, what is the result?

reply to post by Deaf Alien


If all the initial forces and environmental conditions were measured each time, then I could tell you beforehand each time.

What's your point?

I've said it before, the probability comes in when you take the measurement part out -- it leaves you with your own ignorance to guess what's going to happen and express it as a "probability." But the minute you start measuring again, you know what's going to happen again.

Does probability exist?

- Probably not.

reply to post by 13579

BUT you are missing the POINT.. of what probability IS...

ITS MATHS!!

I thought you said you were good at math.

What happens when you leave out a number in an equation? You get the wrong answer. You can not ignore parts of the equation and run around saying your a math whiz. Probability is about *faulty math* as it requires we ignore parts of the equation. So yes, through the act of ignoring the variables of the experiment and only taking into account certain choice few variables, we pretend a probability arises when in reality no such probabilities exist the minute that die or coin leaves your hand as those ignored variables determine which side it will land.

reply to post by bsbray11

If all the initial forces and environmental conditions were measured each time, then I could tell you beforehand each time.

Sighs.

Even if you could tell me beforehand each time, one of 6 sides has to land sometimes, correct?

Again, I have to explain to you over and over and over again, foreknowledge HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH probability!

How many sides are there in a die?

How many side will land on a table?

Uh uh yeah yeah

1 side OUT OF 6 sides will land.

Now multiply that with 1000 or 100000 or even infinite number of sides.

What does it average out to???

ONE IN SIX CHANCE

You know what the outcomes will be? GREAT!

NOW TELL ME WHAT IT AVERAGES OUT IN THE FUTURE. I'd love to hear this. 1 in 5 chance? 1 in 2? What????


I understand the point of OP. I know all about determinism. But hell.... even with determinism, what side will it favor more? 1? 2? ... 6?

Probability theory is not a branch of philosophy. It's mathematics!!!!

If you want to talk about determinism, then we can talk philosophy, not mathematics.

What's your point?

I don't even know what your point is!

I've said it before, the probability comes in when you take the measurement part out -- it leaves you with your own ignorance to guess what's going to happen and express it as a "probability." But the minute you start measuring again, you know what's going to happen again.

FIIIIINNNNNNNEEEEEEEEEEE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


IGNORANCE OR NOT IGNORANCE

PLEASE tell me what it averages out to in the long run????????


I DO NOT CARE IF I HAD TO GUESS!!!

HOW MANY SIDES ARE THERE IN A DIE????

HOW MANY SIDES HAVE TO LAND?

BINGO!!!


1 side out of 6 sides!!!!

reply to post by Deaf Alien

Even if you could tell me beforehand each time, one of 6 sides has to land sometimes, correct?

One of six sides doesn't have a probable *chance* of landing though, it's a determined side if all variables are accounted for. Where is the probability arising from, before or after the toss?

ONE IN SIX CHANCE

Once that die leave's your hand, where is the "chance" arising from? After that die is tossed, all subsequent variables determine one specific side, not one possible side.

NOW TELL ME WHAT IT AVERAGES OUT IN THE FUTURE. I'd love to hear this. 1 in 5 chance? 1 in 2? What????

Average of one side each toss once all variables are accounted for after the toss. You can't simply ignore all variables when those variables determine the side it will land on and demand it's "chance".

I understand the point of OP. I know all about determinism. But hell.... even with determinism, what side will it favor more? 1? 2? ... 6?

That depends on the variables that occur with each toss.

PLEASE tell me what it averages out to in the long run????????


I DO NOT CARE IF I HAD TO GUESS!!!

HOW MANY SIDES ARE THERE IN A DIE????

HOW MANY SIDES HAVE TO LAND?

BINGO!!!


1 side out of 6 sides!!!!

Where is this chance arising from after it's tossed???? That's right, it arises by IGNORING all extant variables. That isn't math, that's idiocy and wishful thinking. Once that toss is made, chance has nothing to do with it at all. I can understand the appearance of probability before a toss, but as no toss has been made, that probability is illusory as nothing is occurring, but once the act of tossing the die occurs, there is no more chance.

reply to post by sirnex

One of six sides doesn't have a probable *chance* of landing though, it's a determined side if all variables are accounted for.

Okay, let's say that you know all the forces involved in tossing the die. You foresee this sequence of number:

3, 5, 1, 4, 4, 2, 6, 4, 4, 3, 1, 2, 5 and so on.

You saw all of that in the future. You saw all the forces that is involved. It's determined, right, according to you?

Right. Now tell me what it averages out to?

I *might* agree with you that everything is determined. Forces might influence the toss right after you toss it. BUT it has NOTHING to do with probability.

Every and every day we see this manifest in our lives. It is our experience. We see it all the time.

I do not know what set the universe in motion. What is the first number the die lands on, I do not know. That's philosophy.

What we are talking about is mathematics.

Once that die leave's your hand, where is the "chance" arising from?

The chance arises from the number of sides which is 6 sides.

What you are talking about is determinism. The cause and effect. The universe might be deterministic.

Maybe it's like the butterfly effect? Some guy farted in Australia and the next day I won the lottery?

After that die is tossed, all subsequent variables determine one specific side, not one possible side.

Yes, I pointed that out many and many times. Yes, I agree with you that forces influence the tosses of the die. But still it will average out.

Do some study of probability theory.

Probability and statistics are branches of mathematics. They do not concern themselves with the cause and effect of the universe. They are based on experience, observation, and logic.

Determinism is a branch of philosophy.

Average of one side each toss once all variables are accounted for after the toss. You can't simply ignore all variables when those variables determine the side it will land on and demand it's "chance".

It doesn't matter if you ignore all the variables or not. "Chance" is a term we use when we do not know all the variables. You are correct in that aspect.

Where is this chance arising from after it's tossed???? That's right, it arises by IGNORING all extant variables.

Again, it is a term we use.

We can know all the variables or ignore them, but in the case of die rolling, it will average out with 1 in 6 "chance". See?

Many, many philosophers have struggled with this very question for millennia. Is the universe deterministic or not? Are all our actions set in stone? Is the universe truly random? Is there even such thing as "chance"?

This is more of a philosophy problem than mathematics.

I can understand the appearance of probability before a toss, but as no toss has been made, that probability is illusory as nothing is occurring, but once the act of tossing the die occurs, there is no more chance.

Yes.

Like with my and others example... you do this in a controlled environment.

With the same force, position, environment, etc, etc, the die will always lay on the same side.

However, YOU or the researcher are the determining factor. You are the one who determines which side the die lays on.

Who or what caused you to be who you are or the position you are? Your parents? The environment? Now who caused them? And so on and on ad infinitum. What is the primary cause? What is the first cause?

See, it goes into philosophy, not mathematics.