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Originally posted by CaninE.G
I think probability is a really flawed concept. Anything can happen at any time. But it is a really hard topic to explain, so hopefully some fellow ATSers can help us out.
Originally posted by CHA0S
reply to post by sirnex
If you knew every variable there was to know, could you predict the numbers to be generated by a random number generator before they were generated?
Originally posted by CHA0S
reply to post by Xtraeme
But haven't they developed a formula which they use in "true" random number generators in which they claim the results are absolutely random?
Originally posted by CHA0S
reply to post by Xtraeme
Ummm...doesn't chaos theory state that even when an ordered system becomes so complex, even though the results should be predictable, it breaks into chaos and we get totally random results? With chaos comes order, and with order comes chaos?
Something hit me when you said, "there's simply too much to take into account - too much to weigh", I thought about chaos theory, and it's assumption that when a system reaches a certain level of complexity, it breaks into total, probabilistic, uncertain and undeterministic chaos. The results of a system are chaotic, even if we do know all the variables involved in the events, actions or decisions, we simply can't predict the outcome. Now, I postulate, that we do in fact have free-will, and it is because the amount of variables involved in our decisions, make it so complex that it is extremely chaotic, undeterministic, and unpredictable, therefor, there is no causality and no underlying factor that can be used to state we have no free-will. We are simply so complex, our decisions are our own, and no one, no matter how much they know about us, will be able to predict exactly what we will do next.
Originally posted by Deaf Alien
reply to post by sirnex
It does not matter if you knew the outcome.
Experimentation with coin tosses will ALWAYS result in 50/50 probability, whether or not you knew the outcomes in advance. If you really could predict the future, you will see that it averages out to 50/50 probability.
If there were some outside forces influencing the coin tosses, then those forces would have to be included in the probability, see?
ok...so basically a chaotic system isn't as random as we first thought? Hmmm...because I had a theory on why we do in fact have free will, and no matter how much a person knows about us, even if they have all the variables involved, they will not know what we will do next...we will never be 100% predictable...
Originally posted by Deaf Alien
reply to post by sirnex
It does not matter if you knew the outcome.
Experimentation with coin tosses will ALWAYS result in 50/50 probability, whether or not you knew the outcomes in advance. If you really could predict the future, you will see that it averages out to 50/50 probability.
If there were some outside forces influencing the coin tosses, then those forces would have to be included in the probability, see?
But, I get what you are saying. But probability is about experimentation, experience, and logic.
A god may see all the outcomes, but it will always follow probability. You have your gaussian distribution, coin tosses, etc.